jokin

Easily the most entertaining and spot-on offseason summation of the MN Twins and their current lot. It behooves the GM to either eliminate or answer some of these questions definitively, just to clear the clutter and the climate in Twins Territory.

Because of his shoulder injury, they can be creative and use some wiggle room for keeping Deduno around a little longer by stashing him on the DL to start the season.

Ehh... so there's an ex-Twins quota? They also cut Jason Pridie, so there's clearly room for at least one more.....

Baltimore inks Grant Balfour for 2 years/$14M. Is there a team in baseball that has ever been on as many former Twins as Baltimore has been in the past 5 years? Surely, there must be more guys on the current Twins roster that Duquette and Showalter surreptitiously covet? Make the phone call, Terry. http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/12/orioles-to-sign-grant-balfour.html

Excellent point, and true per season, as well as in terms of a career, ie, Gibson didn't get his call up until his arm had pretty much been used up (purportedly in finding his "consistency").

"Appropriate level" is a loaded phrase in this instance. For example, ZIPS projects Meyer as far and away our second best pitcher in 2014....and May and Gibson as having essentially the same projected value as Correia, Pelfrey, Diamond, et al. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2014-zips-projections-minnesota-twins/

I'm generally leaning to the notion that the late-season trend tends to augur well for Pelfrey to produce at something better than his overall 2013 numbers. But disturbingly, his 2013 SIERA doesn't confirm his sub 4.00 FIP going forward. The projecting services are not convinced that he turned it around, either. Steamer and Oliver have his ERA and FIP significantly above his career averages and/or worse than his 2013 numbers, ZIPS goes even further to the downside: 5.01 ERA/4.71 FIP, an ERA+ of only 80 (he was 78 ERA+ in 2013) and a WAR of only 0.1 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2014-zips-projections-minnesota-twins/ I think Brock has it about right, he's going to be paid like Blackburn for the next 2 years, but can easily step aside from the rotation to make way for Gibson/Meyer should he be ineffective and slide into an effective reliever role.

Because "hindsight" has become the latest attack buzzword for those who don't follow the new Twins orthodoxy. Why the need to attack? We can dissent from each other without trying to discredit and dismiss with meme generation.

And that's the point, one rather perisistent poster puts a faux-blanket Fangraphs imprimatur on his own personal opinion without a citation, and despite prima facie evidence to the contrary. A discussion is far richer when multiple data points are on the table.

Apparently the articles are ahead of the projections http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2014-zips-projections-minnesota-twins/ : " Minnesota doesn’t resemble anything much like a club that’ll find itself in playoff contention during the waning months of baseball’s regular season. That’s not to say it won’t affect Mauer’s production, personally. After receiving a projection of four-plus wins from ZiPS last winter and then actually outproducing that figure during 2013, the erstwhile backstop receives here a projection of fewer than three wins as a first baseman. Part of that is likely a product of whatever aging curve Dan Szymborski’s math computer utilizes. But a third part of it is due, also, to the positional adjustment for a first basemen relative to a catcher. Whether projected to record a 125 OPS+ (as he was last year) or 121 OPS+ (as with this one), that’s a less formidable number when it’s being produced by a first baseman. Phil Hughes and Ricky Nolasco, are also likely to be Minnesota’s two best starting pitchers in 2014. That it’s because they’re the only two starting pitchers likely to produce at something better than replacement level, however, probably isn’t what one might call an “indicator for great success.” "

Would it be too much to ask (yet again) for you to provide a link for your assertions? Fagngraphs is so cutting edge and up to date, they are still projecting Joe Mauer's 2014 value as a Catcher. http://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=c&stats=bat&type=steamer&team=8&players=0

Did you actually read what I wrote, and the ongoing conversation that resulted in my posts? The qualifier, "potentially" was carefully and intentionally inserted for a reason- it's a hypothetical. Of course, the evidence you cited was based on a completely different set of circumstances, particularly an outmoded ballpark that didn't lend itself to expanded walk-up appeal on good weather days. And of course, baseball clubs are never mindful of ticket demand relative to appealing to the fans intense favorite player interests, vis a vis, marquis pitching matchups or players like Joe Mauer appearing in as many home games as possible, right Wise One? And all that PR talk from Gardy and Ryan to the media that they're ever-mindful about putting their best players on the field for home games for the fans who drove all the way from Wahpeton is just so much windage, right Wise One? We do know that "premium pricing" exists for a reason, and has more than "absolutely zero historical basis for the idea"- that games that involve teams with more talent and more tradition create more demand for tickets, which allows higher prices to be charged. When the consumer walk-up ticket buyer has the discretionary option of attending a game pitched by Cole DeVries or a game pitched by Zach Greinke, it's pretty obvious where the stronger demand would lie. Would it be 10,000 more per game? Of course not, but again, we were using the extreme hypotheticals to flesh out the economics for the Twins in signing the top FA target of the previous offseason- a point that you so conveniently swerved right past in pursuit of your thread hijack.

Yeah, but put yourself in the shoes of every other GM. Terry Ryan was the guy who signed these two a year ago- both of their previous teams were happy to move on, and TR was virtually unopposed in bargaining with them- likely for good reason- PTC is a desirable trait in a SP FA to virtually no other GM than Terry Ryan- and unless someone is absolutey desperate, the Twins really can't expect much more than a Pedro Hernandez-type or "C +"- level prospect in return.

"Said" who? I don't see any of these "veteran innings eaters" being attractive trade chips. Nolasco, and to some extent for the next year at least, Hughes, are tied up in their contracts for too long. Pelfrey and Correia simply aren't talented enough for a team making a big push for a playoff spot (Correia became persona non grata @ playoff-hopeful Pitt, and the Mets had zero interest in retaining Pelfrey even though they were pitching starved going into 2013). The rest of the motley crew have too many question marks and warts for anyone to take a chance by offering much in the way of value in return.

Can I be in 2 camps at once?

The other more significant number you haven't mentioned about Deduno is his GB%. It wasn't just pretty good, it was awesome. If he qualified, he would be #1 in the AL and is #2 overall for SPs over 100 IPs. It's a nearly incredible ~60%...and we all know how many of those GBs are weak chops right back to Deduno or the Catcher. Justin Masterson was first in the AL at 58%, but he pitched nearly 190 innings....and there's the rub, can anyone envison Deduno pitching anywhere close to that number? Steamer is projecting a serious regression from 2013- only 77 IPs and a 4.65 ERA. Also, with the positives on his BB/9, came the negative with K/9 and K% which fell by 2% points. He also became more hittable, although not a big red flag, his H/9 increased from 7.9 to 8.8. Don't get me wrong, Deduno's games are can't-miss for me, you never know what might happen when he's on the mound, when he's on his game, he's virtually unhittable, and his expression of emotion is very refreshing...... but in the final analysis, his unorthodoxic approach does feel like a mirage, like Garrett Morris imitating a "berry-berry-good" Latin ballplayer, like found money.

I think a lot of us are at the point that anything from Deduno is just "found money", we happily spend it, and then never count on it happening ever again.

Bonnes first time addrssing the rebuild? UHhh...I. Don't. Think. So. Again, this may be hindsight to someone who was evidently buried in the catacombs at One Twins Way before he became a contributor at Twins Daily, but the general consensus on TD in the 2011-12 offseason was that the Twins were, in fact rebuilding, but were either, not in a good position PR wise to admit it, or, simply just very hesitant in acknowledging the fact that the whole new-stadium Plan A at Target Field had fully blown up in their faces in 2011.... in conclusion, it's fair to characterize the feeling as, TR keeping his cards close to his vest, throw a few waste-of-effort bones to the season ticket holders, do the quick and easier fix on the bullpen (he succeeded at that task) and emphasize the farm system a little more surreptitiously.

If you don't remember, you were just looking at the wrong information. Again, Doumit was fine for his initial contract, he staunched the bleeding in the wake of 2011, but a clearly rebuilding club should have flipped a 30+ player not a part of the competitive future, during, or coming off of a decent year (they at least were in line for a Type B draft pick as compensation- I think 2012 was the last year for Type B comp). Speaking of that, there are pages after pages in Twins Daily and similar sites before TD on wondering why the Twins sell high so infrequently- this isn't secret decoder ring information, we as fans do have the right to question moves and whether or not the Twins are in "Rebuilding Plan A", "Pretty Darn Competitive Team Plan A", or "Rebuilding Plan B with Real MLB Starters", after both of the Plan A's were an unmitigated disaster, etc.

I'm all in favor of adding Drew, with the proviso that health incentives are built into the contract. And adding 1 year deals or expiring contract trades at other positions that won't block prospects.

Wha...? This is satire, right?...Right out of 1 Twins Way? And how "solid" are those well-timed trades he hasn't made? Given that you participate on this board, is your "fan board hindsight" better than everyone else's? I would remind you that there were many of us at the time of the extension that questioned why you would extend a 30+ poor defensive catcher on a rebuilding team....and look to trade those who had just had career years.

If Correia gets moved (I know, a BIG if!), there's plenty of room for Gibson, Meyer, et al to fill the mid-rotation spots and for Pelfrey to take his "mediocrity at a cheap price" to the backend of the rotaton. But you're right, signing basically unflippable guys like Pelfrey and Correia make no sense for a team looking to rebuild. The original Plan A, now morphing into Plan B, still has the same lack of clarity from this type of signing. I'm still puzzled that a Winter Meeting roster-space-creating trade didn't transpire and that they walked away from JP Arrencibia for only $2M, people got on him for a low BA, but he has legit power and can frame pitches at a very high level (they probably were afraid that his "habits", hitting-wise, would be a bad influence on Pinto). The Rangers got a steal in Arrencibia in their ballpark.

Hart OPS+/HRs/SLG 2010 130/31/.525 2011 133/26/.510 2012 120/30/.507 Hart hasn't been a DH for the Brewers, mostly 1B/RF. Great clubhouse guy, a lot of Thome at a younger age in him, he signed with the M's for $6M + $7M in potential incentive bonuses, surely he's a few shades above mediocre. Obviously, you make a great point and the stumbling block for making this one work, there is a huge backlog of guys that would have to have been moved, and timing of trades hasn't been one of Terry's strong suits in recent times. And Corey Hart's health is still in question, but that doesn't change the fact that the Twins do need another bat with some punch in the order- for heaven's sake, Brian Dozier is (somehow) the current top HR power guy in this lineup! They went into 2013 with obviously too much fingers-crossed Hope that AA rookies could lead off and guys with injury histories and up-and-down play could reliably sustain their 2012 production, they even ill-advisedly extended one of them, when it was clear that a trade or trades was the more prudent move.

Good catch, JP. Very cheap option, tradeable at the right point in time, and a potential partner for Deduno and Pressly currently, and future partner for Trevor May and Alex Meyer, who are also prone to the wild pitch. We have duplicatable relievers available at a lower cost to the arb-eligible and vetran options. Suzuki has been unhealthy recently. What's Matt Joyce due to make in arb this year? He's a pretty steady left-handed bat, and a good bounce-back candidate, could fill the L-R-L gap created in the batting order when Morneau departed (Joyce has a career .893 OPS in the #5 spot). But also like Justin, not real good against lefties.

Probably to a great extent Greinke-specific games. Greinke started 28 games in 2013. Assuming that 15 starts come at home through a slight manipulation of the rotation, Greinke would potentially increase attendance by 10,000 per game (just used convenient rounding numbers from 30,000 per game to 40,000 per sellout game). That makes 150,000 X $50 = $7.5M. Clearly, the rest of the team would have to step up performance-wise to goose the W/L number to get the gate up sufficient enough (about $13.5M, or 270,000) to cover the difference between Greinke and Correia.