jokin
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Everything posted by jokin
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I would vote Diaz as the first option, as well. But first having him become available is so sketchy, his reviews are mixed, and maybe some of the others who aren't bidding on Drew are keeping their powder dry for a shot at Diaz? Just thinking out loud here.
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Article: Twins Organizational Depth Chart - Third Base
jokin replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Is a return to New Britain to start out for Sano your gut feeling, or have you gotten some direction from the club? No one behind Sano in New Britain? Does that mean that Travis Harrison can move up quickly should he get off to a hot start in Ft Myers? If the Twins decide to make a deal on Plouffe should he get off to a hot start, how close is Romero ready to man the position on an interim basis while waiting for Sano to arrive? -
The crickets are chirping a little louder this evening, offering small rays of upgrade hope: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/01/free-agent-notes-tanaka-santana-reynolds-baker-guerrier.html 1) Twins have requested medicals on Ervin Santana. 2) Twins are cited as 1 0f 5 teams "to be in on" Mark Reynolds. And saving the best for last, the 2014 Reunion Tour might get somewhat head-scratchingly even bigger... 3) Dougie reports that Matt Guerrier begins throwing off a mound on Friday and that the Twins are "interested in potentially bringing him back." 4) Scott Baker's name is also broached in the article, but I think the Twins may have permanently burned that bridge.
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Good post, with the exception of your catcher summation. Catcher may be "covered", but it's a huge downgrade from last year. And, presumably because of his defense, Twins management seems less than enamored with going with Pinto to start out the season- hardly a day goes by than Eric Fryer is celebrated by the front office as the second coming of Drew Butera. If Wieters or Castro are shopped, I hope the Twins at least answer the phone. Regarding Morales and Drew, they becomes prime trade bait for a contender without having to forfeit a draft pick- so that mitigates the downside risk even more for the Twins- and as discussed, they block no one for the immediate future. Admittedly, both have their weaknesses and drawbacks, but come on, both would be a HUGE upgrade over what the Twins project to put in their places this season and for the immediate future. And as Marta so eloquently stated, we need to have some crumbs thrown our way, rather than merely using those crumbs to pay down part of the nut on TF. Michael Young is out there as an alternative bat, no doubt hoping to get snapped up by a contender. The Twins should at least consider him as the clock ticks towards Spring Training- might end up being a bargain pick-up.
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Whoa....didn't see that one coming. But in looking at Delmon's career, it makes sense for Duquette, exploiting the platoon split at bargain basement prices, ala Valencia. Keep him off the field as much as possible and use his career against LHP slash of .303/.341/.471 /.813 to his best advantage. Ironic that the Rays helped him resurrect his career, where his late season OPS+ with them was 117. Hey Dan! Give Terry a call and make him an offer. See if you can come to terms to obtain a 1.9 bWAR 3Bman last season with a career split against lefties of .842 OPS/136 OPS+.. He'll work for the same money that Brian Roberts (0.7 bWAR in 2013) got from the Yankees ($2M), except he'll more than likely stay off the DL a lot more (although sometimes you can't tell the difference).
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And that would still put you around/below the 50-52% threshold, and still leave the $25M media money available for current use. Plus, by signing Garza, Correia would almost certainly be traded reducing that cost by $5.5M, with Willingham, Burton and Suzuki, Plouffe likely coming off the books before 2015 (~$17M).
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I think everyone agrees with your premise, in the upgrade by itself- in a vacuum. But nature, baseball players, agents and fans abhor a vacuum. And we aren't just talking about the 2014 standings. By signing Drew and upgrading the Rotation (all of which cost you nothing in terms of giving up talent or holding back prospects), you give further incentive for someone like Garza and other quality FAs to consider the Twins' offers more seriously as a viable franchise moving in the right direction longer-term. Please recall the premise from the opposite viewpoint: incremental upgrades at a position player or two, a significant upgrade in the rotation, combined with positive regressions to the mean from selected players coming off down years, PLUS throw in a rookie, or two, or three getting called up and making an impact, can mean that you now have added enough Wins/Player for a team that can become at the least, a fringe contender. And if not 2014, you build the momentum toward even more quality upgrades going into 2015 to go along with the prospects coming online.
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Good find. Just to pile on, while I am pleasantly surprised that the Twins decided not to cut payroll again as I expected, they currently stand at about the same payroll as last season, meaning that the $25M infusion of media money will go straight to the fiscal year bottom line- never to be seen again in productive use to improve the product.... or to early pay down of the stadium debt.... with a similar result. As I have posted before, while they addressed a glaring and embarassing need, the rest of their "plan" for 2014 appears to be hosting the All Star game and marketing nostalgia, by signing and publicly pursuing past Twins from better times (Kubel, Bartlett, AJ, Garza, Santana), in the hopes of erasing TD threads like: "Worst Starting Lineup Ever?" or never-before-heard-of articles like this in the StarTribune just before last year's All Star Game: "Yankees turn Gardy's Twins into the worst team ever -- Really". Note to TR, just get better players, that, you know, you said would be possible to do with a new stadium.
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I thought this topic had been settled and put to bed.....ie, the 20X cost for Drew relative to Florimon using WAR is easily justified and as someone noted above, the fluky nature of Florimon's 2013 SLG overestimates his future plate value. Sure, Drew @ 111 OPS+ is 11% better than league average, but the qualitative difference between Drew and Florimon must be put into better perspective..... that 11% number is actually 22% ABOVE SS league average.....while Florimon is 23% BELOW SS league average. To further illustrate the numbers: MLB average for SS: .681 OPS 91 OPS+ Stephen Drew 2013: .777 OPS 111OPS+ Pedro Florimon 2013: .611 OPS 70 OPS+ Red Sox 2013 SS production: 1st in AL in OPS/wOBA/wRC+ (Stephen Drew topped out above each stat of his team total production #s). MN Twns 2013 SS production: 11th in AL in OPS/wOBA/wRC+ (By contrast, Florimon underperformed his team averages in each stat). And then when you look at Drew's LHB split of .876 OPS/136 OPS+, you have someone that, properly deployed and exploited, can add a sorely needed run-producing weapon to what currently looks like a downgraded offense over 2013's already anemic output. Signing Drew spends clearly available money that clearly upgrades the team this year, it isn't "spending just to spend" as it does nothing to obstruct the rebuild plan for the longer term. You add one more legitimate bat at DH and a Garza-level starting pitcher, you suddenly become relevant AS the prospects settle into the lineup, rather than hoping WHEN they settle into the lineup.
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It's the dual "futility" IFers that are the problem. A decent infield bat (preferably left-handed) makes for significantly improving over the 2013 alignment with Caroll and Escobar in the roles.
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I'm not convinced of anything. I would prefer that the Twins find a better way to upgrade an already-anemic offense that on paper is going to be worse in 2014, particularly if you get the combined offensive production reminiscent of Carroll/Escobar circa 2013. Being the better player (especially at the plate) is why they should still seek to sign someone better than either Esco or Bartlett, or both.
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No implications on my part about Esco- they can always find another like him on the waiver wire. But the fact remains, you do need a guy who can somewhat competently and reliably handle multiple infield positions- I think he proved that last year.
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No it isn't. It happened at times, as recently as last year. Why change up when things are going so swimmingly? But seriously, if they somehow sign Garza and, since they signed a legitimate defensive veteran ML catcher, Gardy should be read the riot act that it's a new day coming here...... the Twins payroll money has been shifted to focus on the Starting pitching woes, 7 or 8 pen arms are now hereby (at least to open the season) superfluous and that he only gets 2 catchers and 11 pitchers to start out, with always at least one, if not 2, legitimate hitting options from either side of the plate available off the bench. And going back to the infield, if Bartlett is really capable of a "Lazarus rising from the ashes routine", isn't it Florimon who is out of a job? Or are the Twins convinced that either "Barty" or PFlo Jr can fill the UTIL duties? It made no sense to carry both Caroll and Escobar last year as 2 true UTIL/no bat guys, it also makes no sense to not carry 1 true utility guy this year. If they are going with the 2 bench IFers SOP, it is incumbent on management to find a decent hitting platoon partner for Plouffe, or.... how about this to throw against the wall and see if it sticks?...... get Drew and employ a platoon split with Lazarus, er, I mean Bartlett (.795 career split against LHP). If Florimon is as valuable as many on this thread think he is/can become, he should bring back a pretty decent prospect in return or he can be stashed in AAA with his remaining option.
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So Bartlett comes in in the Carroll role? Even though he doesn't have the bona fides at either 2nd or 3rd base? Ugh.
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Thanks for your reports, HH. Your account adds a nice human touch by TR. And it turns out he was right about Liam, Twice! Perhaps a fresh start with a new approach (like adding another pitch) will turn his career in the right direction. He showed a glimmer of what he can still possibly do last August in his call-up.
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Article: Elephant in the Room: Sano's Elbow
jokin replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
A good third baseman is somewhat like a hybrid of quick reaction times and proper angles taken by a hockey and soccer goalie combined with a strong and quick-releasing arm, plus the familiarity and comfort of a catcher going both deep into foul territory to cover foul pops and pouncing on dead fair balls in the no man's land between third and home. No reason Mauer can't do this, and do it well. The Sano situation should certainly give pause to the braintrust to fully consider their options in the intermediate and longer-term. Perhaps a reconsidertion of the Mauer-Plouffe platoon option with Mauer DHing against LHP? This of course would open up the spot at 1B, which invites speculation to more strongly reconsidering signing Kendrys Morales at First on a part time basis with Colabello (Morales is 103 OPS pts. better hitting left over right-handed and Morales very likely isn't up to playing in the field for 150+ games, although he did play 152 games at 1st for the Angels in 2009)....or considering the dreaded Parmelee/Colabello tandem. With the Morales option, when Sano is finally here for good, he can fairly seamlessly slide into 1st with Morales DHing full-time, or if Sano is able with his arm, move Mauer back to 1st, Sano to 3rd, Morales still DHing full-time, Plouffe Super-UTIL. Solves some of the short-term offensive woes and doesn't obstruct the long-term offensive goals, either. -
Escobar is out of options, Florimon is not. Esco fits the UTIL IF role much better than the other two, who have virtually only ever played SS. Would they really carry 4 MI?
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Article: The Advantageous Oswaldo Arcia
jokin replied to Parker Hageman's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
That was plain ugly and Delmon-esque, from all 6 angles....la pelota y el matodor whiffo ole'! I think there were more cameraman than fans watching that game. Do you at least have an encouraging box score to share, Thrylos? -
Not that he should ever be on the Twins 25-man, but I can imagine many scenarios where Colabello will spend time with the Twins this year.
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And the Orioles continue stocking their deep-depth positions with ex-Twins, re-signing Alexi Casilla to the standard minor league deal with the Spring Training invite.
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Since the Dodgers Prez is now on record that they will sign Tanaka "whatever it takes", it behooves the Twins to game plan and think out the chess moves here and act pre-emptively. It's reported that Cleveland covets Garza over the other also-ran Aces.
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2 years before FA and a motivated seller with strong payroll considerations in keeping other prized players on their roster which diminishes his value.... so.....oh, and the O's still have current MLB needs....but no question, the trade would cost a good prospect. But no one in all of MLB would expect a trade of Buxton or Sano for anything less than an Ace Starter (near the end of his contract) plus much more in return. The Orioles might bark up that tree to start negotiations, but would quickly find out that it's the wrong one.
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Yep, that's why I said if the Twins think that Sizemore has a shot at 75% of his old self, it's well worth the gamble of a minor league contract to find out.
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I just want him to last long enough with the Twins before his next big FA contract with the Dodgers.
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You would want to consider Wieters because he's: a proven major leaguer catcher, who is young (only 3 years older than Pinto), big and strong (6'5"/240#), stays healthy and durable, switch hits, doesn't wilt as the season progresses (career .766 OPS 2nd half vs. .715 OPS 1st half), hits for power, above-average pitch framer, plus arm, plus pitch blocker, who the Orioles are actively shopping who still has 2 years of arb left before FA.