jokin

Uhh, the peak was going to happen at some point? But that point usually doesn't happen in the First Year Of The New Ballpark! Not following you on your All Star game theory, what was all that ticket hawking going on last year from the MN Twins themselves, plus the TV and Radio guys tied in with the All Star game all about? 2010: 3.224M 2011: 3.168 2012: 2.776 2013: 2.478 2014: 2.205???* * Based on Dave St Peter's probably rosy forecast of an expected 11% decline in Season Ticket Sales...that would be down over 1M+ fans from the true "peak" and some 32% overall. Ouch!

Eric Johnson has the build of a Starter, and he jumped 3 levels, with success and every indication that he's knocking down the door to become the Sox #3 starter, and hasn't hit his ceiling yet. When ranking guys, I prefer a guy with the physical stature for the job and all the indications that he's beating the door down to get in the league. Maybe Berrios will make a big move this year or next, but like the 2 previous posters, until he proves different, he currently has all the makings of a good reliever. And why doesn't Abreu count? Many scouting services have him ranked as the top Sox propsect, and he certainly would qualify for ROY, so again I ask, why not? Regarding Micah Johnson, here's another guy that not only played through 3 levels in 2013, he was also the MVP of the Southern League playoffs- giving the Sox a AA League Pennant from their supposedly "weak farm system" (how many playoffs did the Twins win again?)...all that for Johnson, despite barely playing for Birmingham at AA beforehand, batting .450 in the series. Oh, he also stole 85 bases on the season. Sign me up for guys who fly through a system and lead their team to a championship.

Bonifacio has batted Leadoff or in the 2-hole for practically all of his career PAs. And Leadoff is where he's batted most often. (73% of PAs batting 1 or 2) Is there info out there that he can't play CF? 15 games in CF last year, 20 in LF, 5 in RF. No one said OBP is the only offensive stat to consider batting leadoff, but combined with his elite speed, these are elements that are sorely lacking in this lineup. Too many Ks, not enough BBs, from virtually this entire cast of non-major league hitting options that the Twins are expected to open the season with at the top and bottom of the order. As weak as Bonifacio is, he's a way better proven MLB option for picking up the offense than Esco or Mastro- and even all of the supposedly "better" hitting options, when it comes to adding Speed and OBP. I repeat. The Twins don't have a legitimate leadoff hitter. They are going to play the spot by committee, as they did last year, after the Hicks debacle. No reason Bonifacio couldn't be part of that committee.

Now that Paul Maholm has signed with the Dodgers for a one year base salary of $1.5M plus incentives to $6.5M, that leaves Capuano as a prime candidate left in the bargain range for LHSP still available. It seems that prices are falling further and Capuano is available at a discounted price to Maholm. Still no indication that the Twins are interested. Can they really be finished shopping, what with all of that talk that they still were willing to spend big $$$ and that they were going to get a higher-end 4th FASP? I don't see them in on any of the high-end guys. Seems that if you can get Capuano on a $1.5M base salary + incentives you can't go wrong- and they really need a Lefty.

My assumptions on Bonifacio's defense as being average to slightly below average were based on BRef giving him a net postive rating in 2 of the last 4 years, with a practically neutral ranking in 2012 and a -0.5 in 2011. You can only play 8 guys on defense at any one time. If you add someone with equal defense ("average to poor"), but who adds upgrades in speed and OBP to your lineup, that's still a net plus. And yes, I'm thinking that he gets the bulk of his PAs as a CF (sharing time with Presley), with occasional looks in LF, 3B and 2B. Until someone comes up with a a couple better leadoff options- admittedly very sadly- Bonifacio still qualifies as someone likely to perform better when getting some of the leadoff ABs for the Twins. There is no legitimate projected leadoff batter in the organization AA and above, Mauer actually is the only one close to fitting the bill. While they're waiting on Buxton's arrival, it kind-of behooves the Twins to address this situation in the meantime.

There is no upside .....oh.....except the already-demonstrated upside that I've published and that you ignore (instead you use a non-predictive stat for some reason?) from his prima facie statistics relative to the alternatives currently inhabiting the Twins roster. And yes, of course we would rather the Twins sign someone with more upside, but signing a career AAAA guy works out far, far, far, far less often than utilizing a proven major leaguer....who despite your protestations to the contrary, has been above average in 2 key areas where the Twins are clearly below average. And no one has proposed making Bonifacio the designated pinch runner. The Twins need someone that has proven at the major league level that he can get on base better than the alternatives currently inhabiting the Twins roster. If you can think of others that are also about to become DFAs and can play multiple positions- with more upside, I'm interested in hearing about them.

Your use of Revere as an example is interesting. As one-dimensional as his game was for the Twins, the Twins were badly exposed at the top of the batting order in 2013, and that .331 by Revere (or whoever else) at the top of the order with his speed would look mighty good right about now. There's no doubt, Bonifacio is what he is, a 26th man, but a 26th man who actually has two main tools, not one, as you allege, who can help the right teams with his skill set. He is one of the best baserunners in the league, but also offers switch-hitting and positional flexibility, and fills a gaping hole on this team with his above-average ability at reaching base.

I don't think anyone wants PAs taken away from Arcia or Dozier, but they could use a day off every now and then, and there are certain pitching match-ups where Bonifacio undoubtedly has historically had an advantage.

League average OBP .318...... Bonifacio, in direct contrast has a .332 OBP over the last 3 years, and skewed down by one bad half-year experience with Toronto. Average defense is a good thing when you can play 6 positions and provide the 3rd best OBP on a team without a true leadoff man. Your proposal is to instead bat guys in the leadoff spot that all threaten to OBP below .300.

Extreme need. Here are the alternative ZiPS projections for OBP candidates at the top and bottom of the batting order: Presley .309 Dozier .303 Florimon .289 Excobar .287 And none of these guys can come anywhere close to stealing a base like Bonifacio has proven he can do.

I've looked at the OBP. In reality, a nice fit for the Twins in a rotating utility role, when you consider the alternatives, and the fact that we lack a top of the order, on-base guy. Again, Bonifacio would be 3rd on the Twins in OBP behind Mauer and Willingham. 2011 Fla. .360 2012 Mia. .330 2013 Tor. .258 2013 KCR .352 OBP from 2011-2013: .332 (which ranks 15th among all qualifying 2B)

Don't forget Avisail Garcia, the dude's 22, dominated AAA in 2013 with 2 different clubs, #2 prospect behind Castellanos in Tigers org, said to have a Maglio Ordonez floor and a Miguel Cabrera ceiling.... and he acquitted himself well in 250 PAs in 2013. Gotta be a leading ROY candidate, if he still qualifes.

Agreed. Unfortunately, they're the team in our current "peer group"....that's the group that on a daily basis thanks their good fortune of having the Astros migrate to the AL and quickly assume the the "most pathetic" mantle all to themselves.

No question, that Bonifacio's time with the Blue Jays was a disaster, but other than that time in Toronto, his WPA is positive over the last 4 years, but this clearly is a stat that does little to reward the types of things that Bonifacio brings to the table. And more importantly, Fangraphs itself says this is an improper use of drawing an opinion on a player from its statistic: Things to Remember: ● WPA is not highly predictive. Generally, it is not used for player analysis and projecting the future. Cumulatively, season-long WPA is also not predictive, making it an ineffective number for projections of a player’s talent.

Jose Abreu, Eric Johnson and Micah Johnson cast dissenting votes from the WhiteSox.

I'm not following you completely here. Why does ZiPS use the 563 PAs and 143 games for Pinto if they're completely meaningless numbers? Why publish all of the expected "counting stats"? Why not just release the rate stats without all of the further detail if it's so meaningless?

To be fair, Bonifacio is also good at taking the extra base, and Gardy is agressive in that respect. And it seems like he has granted latitude to those that have demonstrated skill sets.

Dio is taller than Udo, although technically, Ronnie James loses, as he is now 6 Feet Under. :fenforcer: I question seeing the Twins defense as improving or even being "OK". The corner OF of Willingham, Arcia and Kubel has to be one of the worst in baseball, and Presley didn't impress me much in 2013 (-0.8 dWAR). And we all know about Plouffe, plus there will definitely be a defensive downgrade at Catcher. FWIW (always controversial)- White Sox UZR: -15.1 Twins 2013 UZR: -42.2

Since you chose the stat, you failed to point out that regression to the mean for his BA, to .265, fits in right in the same ballpark as the projected .267 BA that I quoted.... which again.. would qualify as the second highest projected BA on the team, along with the 3rd highest projected OBP. The Twins desperately need someone, anyone, at the top of the order or in the 9 spot that could give you an OBP at .331. OPS is not really a part of this discussion, that can come from the middle of the lineup. The part you also chose to ignore is that Bonifacio's potential role is that he can be plugged into multiple positions to spell his teammates at 6 positions and perform close to acceptably in the field at those various spots, meanwhile, giving your team higher net OBP, plus the 7th best baserunner in the league over the last 4 years, which makes up for much of his lack of SLG.

Freddie Patek? Patek was called up to the majors after 2 minor league seasons and stuck....when MLB was only a 20-team league... and when it was easier and commonplace to slot a good-field/no hit player in your lineup. By contrast, Florimon generally floundered at the plate for 7 years in the minors (actually 9 years, as he signed in 2004 with the O's) before getting his gig with the Twins, based on being picked up on the waiver wire, on a team with a severe need for more production, both now and into the forseeable future. Sorry, .700 OPS is simply not Florimon's ceiling, even in his or someone's wildly optimistic dreamscape. Let me reiterate what I've stated previously, he's not a typical "rookie" prospect due to grow into his job......SS traditionally enter their decline phase at Florimon's current age. His next 5 years of projection barely or rarely crack .600 OPS. Escobar isn't great, and not viewed as "desirable" by me, just a possibly better alternative from the existing (very lackluster) options, given his younger age, and his 5-year projections show an OPS in the .655 OPS range- he'd be not quite as good at SS, but better overall value as a utility option.

Sounds like you're underselling what the Sox accomplished both in-season last year in trading off their veterans and in their offseason upgrades- admittedly not a very good offensive team, but, in comparison to the Twins, at least they addressed the issue and landed one wild card, huge breakout potential bat in Abreu and a minor breakout bat in Eaton, but most importantly, you're underselling a far superior Starting Staff: 1) ZiPS projects Chris Sale has the second-highest projected WAR value among SPs in 2014....The true Ace that the Twins lack. 2a) The combined projected ZiPS WAR for the Sox SPs is 11.2...for the Twins, 3.3. 2b) The Sox top 4 Starters all project higher ZiPS WAR than the Twins second highest projected pitcher, Phil Hughes (0.8 zWAR). 3) The average ZiPS projected ERA+ per SP on the Sox is 108.2...for the Twins, 84.6.

Okay...misusage of hyperbole or mistatement of facts much? Where did I say that Fangraphs wasn't neutral? I did say that that they are using projections that don't appear to match with how the Twins have stated that they intend to use their roster-- (FWIW, the main Roto-Fantasy-League projectors all have even lower production forecasts for the players involved in this discussion). To wit: Oliver and ZIPS have Pinto somehow playing 143 games. At this point, Steamer probably has taken the more realistic assumption with 81 games as their guess. Average the 3 together and you come up with a .716 OPS for Pinto. I'm going with Steamer and the indication of the Twins intent, plus Pinto's injury and Winter ball shutdown (Ryan has announced that Suzuki is the Twins opening day catcher and Pinto is indicated to be headed to AAA, at this point, anyway)---- while you're going with the other 2 services out of at least a half a dozen more that disagree with both you and them. Suzuki, among the 3 services I used, averages to a projected OPS of .656, with Steamer giving Suzuki the extreme outlier, higher projection, of .677 playing half-time. Every other projection out there, except Steamer, has Suzuki OPSing between .623 and .645. What was Suzuki's combined OPS for 2012 and 2013, you ask? .614! Again, who is being optimistic here, who is being hyperbolic and who is being realistic? If you assume that Pinto stays down until the All Star break, that would mean that Fryer/Hermann play in 20 games for around 80 PAs at a .611 OPS. Assuming an 80/20 split of the PAs to the break, the combined OPS at Catcher would be .645. With makeup games added there will be about 70-72 games left after the All Star game, so let's say that Suzuki is then traded- that leaves 60 games for Pinto? Or...let's assume, very generously and optimstically and probably unrealistically, that Pinto gets called up even sooner than the All Star game, say in mid- June, Fryer is DFAd instead, and Suzuki is basically relegated to one or two days a week duty for the rest of the season- and Pinto STILL ends up playing 60 games at Catcher. According to the projections, that would mean that the combined OPS at the position would be around ~.655- 670 OPS. This generous and optimistic forecast at the Catcher position would mean that, in order to hit your own combined OPS number at C/1B/DH, that Kubel has to come through above the lofty projections despite his very questionable status, and/or that Willingham also: comes back strong from his injury-plagued-year, gets significant DH PAs, AND is not traded away in June or July. A lot of things have to hit just right for your scenario to come to fruition, I just don't see it. And the combined OPS number comes in right around mine if we hit these rosy forecasts and only end up getting .811 OPS combined from the 1B postion as is projected in your own scenario.

Not entirely true in either sentence when taken in full context, but 2nd is his best position. His potential value also comes from: an OBP of .331 w/ a BA of .269 since 2010 - overall league average over that time actually is only .318 OBP/.253 BA, and league average at 2B since 2010 is .319 OBP/.257 BA (by contrast, Dozier has a career OBP of .297/.240 BA and only .312/.244 in 2013), roster-extending high positional and hitting flexibility, and especially, as the Petriello Fangraphs article notes, he is tied for the 7th most valuable baserunner since 2010, even with much fewer than average PAs, if he hits his averages since 2010 (.331/.267), based on ZIPS projections, he would easily lead the team in SB, be second in BA and third in OBP. He's a DFA because he is far from a perfect player, that doesn't mean that he doesn't offer value to a team in the right situation. Here's a prediction: LA or NY will pick him up.

Anyone looking at Morales should not be signing him with the expectation that he would be a part-time DH, Morales's contract demands are based on expectations of playing regularly. He's a switch hitter with nearly career and 2013 identical splits. He played in 156 games last year, only 4 as a PH.

Irony, thy initials are either D.D. or S.S.