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jokin

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Everything posted by jokin

  1. jokin
    Unless Hicks gets called up and absolutely siezes the job in CF, there's still a big hole there, too.
  2. jokin
    Snepp, you are an editing genius....a picture really is worth a thousand (curse) words.
  3. jokin
    The Twins were earnestly pursuing Garza, Arroyo and Yoon- presumably they were more comfortable than some of us in moving on with at least one of these names. They must still see the DL, a last-minute trade or sneaking someone through waivers as viable ploys.
  4. jokin
    Proof positive that even "beloved" Bullpen-level Catchers have tangibly intangible value (to somebody). Thanks for the memories, Drewby, and thanks for your part in bolstering our minor league pitching depth......I have a sneaking suspicion you'll be back again someday.
  5. jokin
    Seth, you mentioned Aaron Hicks in the OF discussion, but didn't put him on your depth list of 6. Any significance or assumption to him not being on that list? What are the chances that a reliever or two are traded this spring to make room for one of the extra starters on the 25-man? 2 spots aren't clear in your scenario- do the Twins go with a 3rd catcher, a Jamey Carroll-type additional utility guy (Bartlett), a 5th OF, or another bat for those last 2 spots?
  6. jokin
    Just goes to show, when it comes to finding true hidden value, Billy Beane's got nothing on TR!
  7. jokin
    I'm not suggesting duplicate production numbers. I think we'll be happy with whatever he ends up bringing to the table from the leadoff position and his sensational play will leave us with few moments of disappointment. Comparing and contrasting the two, Buxton will clearly be a better defender. Trout will hit with more power. Buxton might get his high OPS numbers from his higher OBP and a high SLG from stretching singles into doubles and doubles into triples. But it's also important to consider- Trout has significantly strengthened his body over the last couple years.....who knows what Buck will be capable of when he weighs 225 (anyone remember skinny Torii and skinny Puck)?
  8. jokin
    Exactly right----SIOW---- Buxton isn't Hicks!
  9. jokin
    SS is one of many real problem areas in this lineup- gotta do better than .600 OPS. Whomever plays SS at the most important position in the field in 2014 will make a huge difference on the level of success or failure achieved and- SS is one key position where the future of who man's the positon for the Twins is still up in the air and, it remains very much in doubt if we, in fact, have a major league SS currently with the organization.
  10. jokin
    All guys signed as utility players, are in effect, always potentially the next 26th man on a roster when someone needed more becomes available, hey!, that happened to both Bonifacio and Carroll just last year! Only, Bonifacio is only 28 with the speed facet to his game still fully intact. So you're right, he's not the same type of insurance policy as Carroll, in many ways, he's a better insurance policy and more affordavble, besides! I've actually acknowledged that Bonifacio is what he is over these 9 pages- very fast, the 7th best baserunner in MLB since 2010, can play 6 positions with varying degrees of competence, and has hit for a high OBP since 2010 (except for one half season in Toronto)- in short, a marginal big league player that has successfully been a fit for many teams looking for speed and positional flexibility- and was sought by 8 or 9 clubs in this latest go-round. I got the point on Borbon, not all deals work out in generating value, and I think the Cubs remember that concept in relation to Borbon quite well. Baltimore likely got a starting OFer for a guy who developed with Baltimore from a very suspect talent into a bona fide DH specialist/back-up 3rd baseman.
  11. jokin
    Sounds like exactly the type of endorsement that a 26th man veteran should receive. Yes, he's signed as an insurance policy with potential underlying value on a team that will have prospects playing at multiple positions and many of whom may need to be spelled or optioned back to AAA. Kind of exactly the same situation that the Twins are in. And a cheaper insurance policy than Jamey Carroll was in 2013. And if they get an offer for Darwin Barney, they have someone they can plug in immediately. It sounded like there were 8 or 9 clubs interested with multiple offers, and this one was chosen as it may give Bonifacio the best chance to stick in the majors, and possibly get traded to a contender if/when the need should arise. The Cubs didn't get a prospect for Borbon, although they do employ that strategy as a matter of routine. The Orioles took Borbon away from the Cubs in the Rule 5 draft. They also frequently look to seek value from fringe players- look what they got for Danny Valencia.
  12. jokin
    Simple answer. The Twins have no one that's even close. I get the strong feeling that Buxton will embarrass everyone else with what he can do in the OF this spring. But rather than bringing him up straight out of ST, as good as he is now defensively, he still undoubtedly needs PAs at a lower level, I think following the Mike Trout model for promotion (ie, the Gretzky of MLB) should be considered (it worked out well for the Halos): Trout 2010 A level: 131 games-- .979 OPS/A+ level: .821 OPS 2011 AA level 91 games-- .958 OPS/MLB level 41 games--.672 OPS* 2012 AAA level 20 games-- .1091 OPS/MLB level 139 games-- .963 OPS Buxton 2013 A level: 125 games-- .990 OPS/A+ level: .887 OPS 2014 AA/AAA levels: 96 games?, 475 PAs?-- .900+ OPS?/MLB level 50 games?-- ???OPS** *(Trout had a .163 BA/.492 OPS in July and .400 BA/.1384 OPS in August, before falling back a bit in September). ** (Assuming that Buxton does well at New Britain/Rochester, call him up after the All Star break or when trades are made for the expiring FA contract-holders, whichever outcome has an open roster spot/starting role made available. This gives him the opportunity to either hit the ground running in 2015, or come up after a short stint at Rochester, ala Trout, to work on what he found out where he was deficient in 2014).
  13. jokin
    Not bad for a "minor league" deal:p. I'm pretty sure Bonifacio had multiple options available to him and went for the one that all but assured him making the 25 man out of ST. $2.925M as a replacement cost at the utility spot for Jamey Caroll's $3.75M from last year, without giving up a prospect, would have represented a good value for the Twins. Too bad the Twins didn't pursue this a little more aggressively. On the bright side, maybe this means that they are hoping that Buxton, and possibly Santana are closer than we think, and might prove themselves ready for a call-up after the All Star break?
  14. jokin
    Thanks for the re-post JC. I remember commenting at the time that supposedly Bo Jackson held the unofficial Home to 3B record at ~11.5 seconds. Bo also allegedly has the fastest 40 YD time ever at the NFL combine (4.12). Mickey Mantle supposedly has the fastest times- Home to 1B- 3.1 seconds battiing LH- and 3.5 seconds batting RH. And both of those times were aided by he fact that the Mick was drag-bunting. Buxton gets from Home to 1B in this clip in just a little over 3 seconds, and that of course, is while ROUNDING First Base.
  15. jokin
    So you concur. As Mike so eloquently stated, no rules are presently being "broken" to the point that someone has filed a legal suit. And when the league "addresses the problem", teams from both sides of the "spirit of the law" divide will have a hand in coming up with a new structure and a set of rules, that once again will have teams employing their own strategies based upon that new structure and rules. Ethics will play no part in their new strategies.
  16. jokin
    When the clubs came to the original agreement on this matter, the so-called sanctions you mention certainy would have had more teeth and consequences attached to them than simply a mere "matching tax," if this was really put in place with more serious intent. In that respect, you're right, the clubs knew what they agreed to....or should have known! Words like......."You shall not exceed your spending limit....PERIOD".... carry significantly more weight, both in an Business Ethics 101 course, as well as in the Real World.
  17. jokin
    If this were true, there would be a slew of lawsuits. With respect to these "agreements" between the clubs, I have yet to see one civil or crimnal lawsuit on a docket anywhere.
  18. jokin
    Better run that by Dave for further verification.
  19. jokin
    If there truly are a dozen legitimate MLB starting candidates....and I will repeat what no one seems to want to address.....why such the doggedly aggressive offseason pursuit of another proven starter?....Garza?....Arroyo?....Suk min-Yoon? I have no problem with kicking the tires on this guy- and T-Bar insurance is a prudent move, but it sure is a come down if he ends up with a roster spot taken up- and so many other holes to fill- so many more names can end up becoming available in the next month and a half- I hope the Twins are just as willing to pull the trigger and bite the bullet in clearing a roster space, if and when it occurs. And importantly, we still don't even have a guy on the roster from the Left-Hand side that we're sure can dependably pick up the ball every 5th day- Paul Maholm has been available as a Twins get for years, and the Dodgers just picked him up on the cheap, Capuano is still out there.
  20. jokin
    What? If the "spirit of the rules' were truly being violated, don't you think the other members of the club would scream bloody murder? There are sanctions in place for teams that choose to go over their spending limits, dollar for dollar taxes, plus the sanction of an extreme limit of $250,000/max per signee in the year following the overage. The Twins haven't chosen some sort of "ethical high road", they simply have chosen not to pay a tax in a system they had a hand in establshing in the first place.
  21. jokin
    Excellent post. Thanks for leg-working all of the good info. Top-end/top 5 pick HS guys, unless they have a major arm blow-out, should reasonably be expected to at least sniff the majors by Year 4. Your progression table for Stewart was exactly how I envision things occurring for him- even with the conservative approach from the Twins. That's why the OP was such a derailment of expectations.
  22. jokin
    But what about if his ERA is closer to 3.50 with good underlying peripherals? Of late, the club has been a big proponent of "mastering" a level before promotion. What about on the closer calls? Other clubs have no problem ignoring minor league stats if they're sold on a guy's big league potential.
  23. jokin
    Simple. One guy adds proven major league value, the other guy adds, by your own characterization, "borderline" major league potential.
  24. jokin
    Emilio would appreciate that it be known: BD= 4/23/85, with tail still intact.
  25. jokin
    Preaching to the choir with me. It is John who has sounded the alarm with this article- and the employment of a Trevor May comp. I hadn't heard any discussion to this point that taking Stewart was being construed by some as some sort of wild-eyed, cross your fingers and say a Hail Mary gamble of epic proportions. FWIW- I am still of the camp that barring injury, he gets a call-up in 2016, but if any of the information presented here has credence, then some folks out there are attempting to rewrite the narrative of Stewart's potential.
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