jokin
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Everything posted by jokin
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5 of 9 field positions hit below .700 OPS for the Twins last season with Florimon only the worst among many possible bad hitters in the batting order (and now Morneau's gone [104 OPS+]) and replaced by Suzuki- with a Florimon-esque 73 OPS+ in 2013). Drew's 2013 OPS+ would put him far above the bottom of the order plus the leadoff position and right around the top 3 spots in the order (#2, #4, #6). It certainly does help to replace one of the many spots OPS+ing between 70 and 80.
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This is spot on. Finding a SS going forward through FA will become more expensive and more risky, not less. Yunel Escobar looks like the only upcoming FA that the Twins might be able to afford, and Tampa holds a team option on 2015, besides. The rest are prohibitively expensive, even older or more injury-prone than Drew, or some combination of all 3. Drew isn't the perfect answer by any means, but he gives you a perfect bridge at the position until you can answer the question of "Who?" more definitively.
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Clearly, Drew had a doctor and a trainer and an agent and a manager and an owner who all had different expectations for what they wanted from Drew in 2012. Pulled in multiple directions, and re-learning how to run on a reconstructed weight-supporting and direction-changing bone that had itself been literally pulled 180 degrees from it's natural direction. It might be impossible for us to know exactly what went down, it's quite reasonable to infer from the information available. Wasn't exceptional in 2013? He was the 4th best-hitting SS for those with over 500 PAs. We've gone over Cruz, hurt every year, huge steroid risk, one-dimensional player. And turning age 34, he would present far greater risk and likely will cost more to sign than Drew. I still haven't seen anybody, not just you, RB, who has made a convincing argument on how signing Drew is "too much money for what we get."
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I think it's important to distinguish boneheaded moves from actually labeling someone as being a bonehead, which is certainly not what I said. But I did demonstrate that the owner made 2 decisions that worked out very poorly (Drew's resurgence in 2013 traded away for nothing, with contributory negligence by badmouthing that asset in the process/Trading a #9-ranked prospect SP for a #72-ranked SS due to position scarcity). Ta=Dah. Drew came back with a resurgence in 2013 because he was fully healthy. Much like Hardy came back after being given away by the Twins because they similarly didn't understand that Hardy was not yet fully recovered.
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3 strawmen for the price of one? The current situations for Valverde, Santana and Ramirez resemble Drew's situation in no way whatsoever.
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Yeoman work spycake, well stated.
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Drew's actions in 2013 speak louder than all of the words of doubt on this thread, by far. Most of your defense of your position is "words", which you admit are misleading, by an owner who not only completely misjudged Drew' rehabilitating status.......and maybe this didn't occur to you..... but he committed a foolish self-inflicted wound, by castigating his own asset's potential trading value in public...and now he has egg on his face for those foolish actions.
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I brought this up in one of the earlier Drew thread extravaganzas: Eduardo Escobar has a career split against lefties of .289 BA/.739 OPS.
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Article: TD Top Prospects: #6 Jose Berrios
jokin replied to Parker Hageman's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
BA just came out, and came to a much different conclusion, despite protestations to the contrary, it comes with Jose Abreu premiering at #29, Eric Johnson @ #63 and 2 more White Sox players (not Micah Johnson?), but no Berrios. Trevor Bauer made it for Cleveland. -
Owners never do boneheaded things? This owner compounded his boneheaded generosity towards his fellow owners, he successively "gave away" a BA & MLB.com Top Ten SP- not a D-Back top ten prospect, but an overall top ten prospect- to replace Stephen Drew with Didi Gregorius. D-Backs net SS production in 2013: .682 OPS/95 OPS+ Drew in 2013: .777 OPS/111 OPS+ League Average: .675OPS/91 OPS+ Regarding position scarcity, Mauer used to fall under the same equation. The Twins desperately need to upgrade their offense- which on paper right now- looks to be worse than last years' anemic output, SS is one of 2 or 3 obvious positions where they still can do so without interfering with the long-term plan. Regarding your objection to the price tag, we do have WAR as an approximate measure of value. Drew's 3.2 bWAR and 3.4 fWAR would suggest that, he was worth $17-$20M in 2013. Even with a drop-off in 2014 and 2015, it appears likely that he would comfortably still "earn" his $10M/yr based on WAR measurements.
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Too bad. Souhan just missed the deadline for the 2013 Preposterous Statement Brackets. Unless it's a heavily incentive-laden contract and Gardy is prohibited from playing him in LF, it's time to move on.
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I understand what happens when Boras is involved, loyalties get mighty murky. But if you've seen the horrific video and the nature of his injury, and understand the procedures and rehab involved, literally having to learn how to run again, and then see how Drew has fully recovered this season, I am far less concerned about what a frustrated owner said 2 seasons ago. I would be all for putting incentive clauses into a Drew 2-year contract as protection for the Twins- and as a reward to Drew for meeting them.
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The Dodgers made the decision to sign a "shaky" Haren over Nolasco, that was certainly more than a one-game decision. And be suspicious all you want, I don't accept the decline phase theory, because a less athletic-to-start SS who doesn't rely on sheer athleticism just isn't going to decline as much. But even accepting the shaky premise based mostly on opinion, there's no evidence that's been presented (except the weaker numbers against LHP) that suggests he's lost it- he still posted a vastly superior ballpark-adjusted OPS+, made the plays on everything in front of him, and even allowing for a marked drop-off from 2013 would still represent vastly superior production over Florimon, who probably won't be around himself for very much longer. 2 years with Drew does nothing crippling to the team- on the field or reflected in the payroll- even if the projected worse happens- it's still better than Florimon.
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Or maybe they have Bogaerts ready to take over the postion and see no need to go beyond one year. The Twins, not so much.
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Drew BD: March 16, 1983. On March 16, 2015 he turns 32! Thus, through age 32.
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Drew was traded from Arizona in a salary dump, and because his future was in doubt as he was batting .193 while literally re-learning how to run. He's proven that he has fully recovered in 2013, actually getting stronger month-by-month as the season wore on. Nelson Cruz would help the team offensively- no question- but the same goes for Cruz, attitude, winning team.....and you're getting a one-dimensional player whose defensive ability qualifies him as a DH, and who gets hurt frequently, and may be suspended at any moment with his next urinie test- even with Glunn and Asbury's collaborative efforts.
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If Bill James is to be taken as gospel, then the Twins signing of Drew at 2 yrs/$21M through age 32 (2015) makes a lot of sense.
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Name the last "premiere talent" that the Twins drafted in the 2nd round. I'm not following you on "2nd Division starter players", is that how you are classifying Florimon.....or Drew? And your argument for not signing Drew as a 2 year rental is that "they're going to lose the next 2 years, so why bother"? What's so bad about a "rental" (who would also have potential trading value while in the Twns employ)?....Even if the dollars are readily available?....and it doesn't block a prospect?...and you don't block a 1st round potential SS draft pick in 2014 or 2015?....and you don't cripple other team-building maneuvers?...and signing a legitimate big league SS might encourage another quality FA to consider signing next offseason?
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The average SS hit .697 OPS/94 OPS+, Florimon has managed to hit .601 OPS/67 OPS+ in his career with little indication that he can do any better than that. You don't find that the least bit embarrassing? Hardy is going to be making 8 figures with already-earned bonuses in 2014, and will be making much more into the 8 figure per anum range on his next contract. He's a career .740 OPS/96 OPS+ hitter versus Drew at .764 OPS/98 OPS+. That makes 2 yrs/$21M look not too bad for Drew. If that $10M was proven to be holding the Twins back from signing someone else, I'm all in, but someone who can play a decent SS and hit RHP at somewhere close to .800 OPS at a premium defensive position qualifies as a raker on this team. Nelson Cruz, by contrast, has a career .823 OPS as a part-time, oft-injured player who has averaged 125 games per year, and whose defense really qualifies him as a DH- and he'll be making a lot more than Drew.
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1) The Dodgers had such confidence in Nolasco, they skipped his start in the playoffs, and then signed a pretty "shaky" Dan Haren to take his place? 2)Drew's injury history consists mostly of one horrific injury sliding into home plate. See- Hardy, JJ for decline phase. 3) When the Twins offensive boat has such a big hole in it that it's guaranteed to sink over the next 2 years, a Drew Patch amidships, now, maximizes the chances of keeping the Good Ship afloat until we replace the Keel @ SS on a permanent basis.
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Again, 2 injury-riddled years for Drew, that still vastly outranked Florimon's 2013 numbers. Smith and Gardy also similarly thought that Hardy wasn't the long-term answer to the Twins' offensive woes, and then Hardy got healthy, and the rest is history.
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2011 and 2012 Drew numbers are not really useful for comparison purposes, much like Hardy's injury-riddled year with the Twins and his last year with the Brewers. A better way to look at it, and most importantly, one that completely takes out the Fenway Effect, is to compare Drew's OPS+ number from 2010 in Arizona and 2013 in Boston- OPS+ of 113 in Arizona and 111 in Boston------- Florimon had an OPS+ of 70 in 2013- OUCH!..... League SS Average OPS+ was 91...... Clearly, a healthy Hardy and a healthy Drew are a big upgrade over Florimon, who probably had his career year at the plate in 2013. I'm with USAFChief, Drew will still be playing long after Florimon plays himself out of the League. A real head-scratcher why some are so resistant to this deal, for an obvious upgrade, that doesn't block any prospect, with plenty of payroll room to spare- and by the time they move Correia and Willingham, their net payroll will be well below $80M.
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I would agree that unfortunately, there's no way the Twins are in the mix, but I would take issue on the alleged lack of mystery teams- notwithstanding the Boras factor. And a guy coming off of his first healthy year since 2010 (4.7 fWAR) and putting up a fWAR of 3.4 in 2013 seems to be underestimated in his projection values going forward in the immediate future. Drew is likely not going to experience the typical "shortstop drop-off" due to loss of athleticism- to wit, JJ Hardy came off of 2 years of suffering from injuries and since then has put up WARs of : 4.3/2.6/3.4 over the last 3 years, and he's a very similar style defensive player to Drew, ie, a style that relies more on positioning and consistency than pure athleticism. It's relatively easy to surmise that, given Drew's willingness to play anywhere, that a free-spending team like the Blue Jays, who have 2 protected picks, could get a huge upgrade with Drew at 2B, and would have great insurance for oft-injured Jose Reyes. The LA Dodgers have no limits on spending, and Drew would only have to beat out the likes of Chone Figgins or Brendan Harris for a spot? And again, provide good insurance should Hanley Ramirez go down once again.
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Article: Minnesota Twins Roster Projection 1.0
jokin replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
"Interesting"? Or just depressing? -
Boras never takes the QO for his clients. MIs that bat left-handed and mash RHP are a rare commodity and protect Drew's potential value in the out-year of a contract, plus the added chance with Boras as his agent, to recoup that lost pick. If the "$20+M" would be spent on signing a certain impact International/Cuban SS, or another FA bat, acquiring a legitimate Lead-Off man, or Ervin Santana, I'd say re-direct your priorities in those directions over Drew, but the Twins at this point, seem destined to not spending that $20+M and simply go with what they have in camp right now, and then shed even more payroll as the season progresses.