jokin

If they were choosing to go this route all along, why not just keep Duke Welker? At least he had a live arm and a K rate suggesting he had at least a shot at a significant bullpen role. Madness.

Sorry, didn't mean to step on your riff, I was typing ("hyping") the wonders of Chris Rahl as you were posting. I've got to get back under the covers due to this case of Twins Fever I'm experiencing!

But TR has already foolishly shown his hand, what SP FA or his Agent gets excited when a prospective employer announces in advance that Kris Johnson, Swarzak and Duensing are early candidates for becoming his fellow SP rotation mates? TR's pattern has been to cut existing payroll and replace lost personnel at a fraction of the previous year's cost. There is little to indicate that anything this offseason will change that pattern. I think your analysis is correct, as he is wont to do, TR will wait to mid-December and swoop in for a wounded-wing bounceback or "sleeper" candidate on the cheap, and perhaps sign the Korean pitcher Suk. (...but I repeat myself......) Gotta admit though, TR changed it up a little this offseason, though, now he's punting on 1st Down instead of 2nd. But hey, he did replace that gaping hole left with the departure of one Cletus Thomas: "Twins sign soon-to-be-30-year-old RH OF, Chris Raul......" http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa291400&position=OF Let me save you the click....in AAA in 2013, Raul had a 2.4% BB rate......coupled with his 23.2% K rate, further coupled with a BABIP-ically artificially-high slash line . Encouraging.

Say goodbye to arb-eligible Bryan Duensing (or Swarzak)? TR probably thinks he's found his new LH swingman who can readily move up to the level of the Twins collection of AAAA rotation lottery candidates, when/if he finds out that he is priced out of the market and is unable to sign 2 (1?) quality FA starters.

I think TR panicked when the Rockies "stole" Pedro Hernandez from him.

Ah, Welk, we hardly knew ye!

Excellent work overall and Adams is a most interesting comp. Correction on Adam Walker, he attended Jacksonville University in Florida, not Jacksonville State in Alabama. In contrast to 3rd round pick Walker, Adams was a completely unheralded and unknown prospect (23rd round from Slippery Rock University - DII school) who isn't anywhere close to being the athlete with upside that Walker is. But Adams' Midwest League batting stats at the same age as Walker are clearly superior to Walker, across the board (.310/.355/.541). The man clearly has a gift, he's a born hitter. But his K rate was never better than at age 21. He's been above 20% K with a similar BB% ever since at every level he's played (in 2013 for the Cards he had a 25.1% K and 7.3% BB). Walker has a huge upside AND a huge flame-out potential, continued improvement in his plate discipline in 2014 against tougher pitchers in Hi A will be telling on his ultimate success track to the majors. Close to similar production to Adams- with more power and more athleticism- is reasonable to project as his ceiling. On a more frustrating note, in researching Adams, I was again disturbed to compare the Twins 09 draft "success" (Dozier, Gibson, Hermann) versus the St Louis Cardinals. Not surprisingly, they totally outclass the Twins. Not only did they hit for gold with the high picks: Shelby Miller 1st rd Joe Kelly 3rd rd They also know how to draft in the rounds where most other teams (and fans) are seemingly going through the motions: Matt Carpenter 13th rd Trevor Rosenthal 21st rd Matt Adams 23rd rd Keith Butler 24th rd There's gotta be a reason besides luck why the rich get richer.

Still, it'd be nice to have a veteran catching presence to caddie Pinto and fill the breach if the worst happens. With all of these other "inevitable" angsts that you and others justifiably cite, it seems kind of crazy and short-sighted to hand the most important defensive job in the field on a full-time basis to a rookie with: 1) all of 83 PAs, 2) obvious holes still remaining in his still-developing defensive game.... 3) and a significant language barrier besides. I remain optimistic that Pinto can eventually ensconce himself for the next 6-9 years at the position, but as Parmellee's 88 PAs in September, 2011 illustrate, lots of folks on here seem to be prematurely counting a few too many unhatched chickens. This move with Mauer is a pretty significant bump in the road for the "2015 parade" to have to cross over. (And can anyone stomach Ryan Doumit catching more than 30-40 games?)

I like the lineup, but I think Arcia is going to end up getting a lot of time at DH when it's all said and done. Dozier might also get another shot at SS to open up a spot for Rosario. Sano's elbow situation also might end up precluding him from being anything other than 1B/DH over the mid-term especially if he doesn't respond to rehab and has to undergo surgery.

Actually 5 and 2/3- pretty clean score sheet- and almost a 2 to 1 ratio on strikes to balls, very encouraging while hitting his typical high velocity numbers. (AJ Acther also pitched 1 and 1/3 innings of scoreless relief with one K.) [TABLE=class: pitching_data] [TH=colspan: 12]Glendale Desert Dogs[/TH] [TR=class: hed] [TD=class: player_name]Player[/TD] IP H R ER BB SO HR ERA[/TR] [TD=class: player_name] Alex Meyer[/TD] 5.2 1 0 0 1 7 0 2.74 [/TABLE]

Funny, the taxpayers purportedly built TF just so we wouldn't have to wait 4 MORE years. 7 years without a serious attempt before then at fielding a competitive team, coupled with no attempt to put in the "final pieces" along the way? Things have changed for this team- it holds a potential near-future value in excess of $1Billion...and produced $215M in revenue even in the midst of yet another dismal lost season. There is absolutely no overhanging financial reason to hold off on "putting the final pieces" in place until the 2017 offseason. There is virtually no risk at attempting to field competitive teams in 2014, '15, '16 by acquiring both long and short-term assets via FA- flipping, non-tendering, QOFing and/or extending them, as each individual merits in the long-term plan, case-by-case.

Glad to see more and more of us are on the same page about Buxton. The national guys billboarded him this spring and set the hype-table, but it was Byron Buxton himself who proved even better than all the glowing accolades and forced the issue for the rest of the doubters, and finally made it easy for the Twins to keep him on the fast-track- and then, to their credit, they hit the gas pedal some more by sending him to the AFL. I saw him in CR and he didn't even do much that weekend and it was still obvious how special he was- but caused me concern that because of the poor major league team, they might hold Buxton back even longer until better players could be established to play alongside him. A 2014 July call-up, along with Sano, will be the beginning of the end of our long national nightmare.

Seth- Any insight what those on the inside attribute for his metoric rise in 2013? (ie, better coaching, improved velocity, maturity, new pitch?) It appears the command is always going to be an issue with him- is he a left-handed version of Jose Valverde- their velocity is similar at the same age, but with Valverde even wilder than Ibarra, but with the much better penchant for the punch-out.

Contrived or convoluted, either way, in the context of my usages of the words, they were synonymous, and were used condemnatorily on your part towards attacking someone, somehow, for supposedlly coming up with a past-due sour-grapes-gripe-and-grouse, and supposedly for presenting a weak and flimsy case against how TR (mis)-handled the Ortiz affair. The evidence is that quite the opposite was the case. It was apparent to some of us at the time that Ortiz was a TK and Gardy whipping boy, and history has certainly borne it out that of that emergening group, he had the best potential leadership qualities and key-production propsects, therefore, this wasn't contrived or convoluted second-guessing, this was a gaffe of epic proprotions. You can provide grist for the real "reason" for the move if you wish- a) TR blinded by the roster and payroll processes and unable to see the forest for the trees, outright penny-pinching, cc) playing favorites for less tangible reasons than potential production value, ie, absurdly (unjustifiably) deeming Twins Way LeCroy as Ortiz's equivalent value player, d) a mollification of field level coaches by getting rid of a "difficult" player....etc....But none of this ever has, or ever will wash, and misses the greater point.....this was, and is, a justifiable indictment of a too-insular organization that is unable or unwilling to learn from past mistakes... (As others have noted, sadly, I doubt that for one moment that they have ever regarded non-tendering and/or releasing Ortiz as a "mistake"). Ortiz's public comments concerning how he was coached as a Twin, followed by numerous other ex-Twins before and since, only add to the pile of evidence in the matter. (And this does cause obvious concern with the next wave soon upon us, especially the aleady-identified strong personalities like Sano, Berrios, Gonsalves and Rosario).

Petty and convoluted? The fact that you acknowledge that the Twins annals are replete with talented players, both those who became "Twins Way" guys, as well as with talented, but unwilling to entirely conform guys, that the Twins have shown little ability and failure to learn (ala the Rays) to manage contracts ( and it goes both ways, no one has been held accountable for signing Blackburn long-term when they didn't have to do so- why? because he pitched the Twins Way?)) and gain commensurate value for their best players makes this whole issue NOT petty or contrived. You only have just a very, very few chances at scouting, signing and developing your own HOF-level talent. Losing a player outright and/or dismissing him without commensurate compensation with a major-impact player like Ortiz is far more than just an "Oh well....can't we just move on?" dismissal. It admittedly isn't nearly a Babe Ruth gaffe like the Red Sox made, but it does come pretty close to a Lou Brock gaffe like the Cubs made- and they at least got a veteran starting pticher for their assessment mistake.

Members have been banned for less....

The Giants are reported to be kicking the tires on Balentien, so there must be a do-able "out clause" in his contract in Japan. In this scenario, Arcia could eventually move to 1B or become more full-time at DH. Balentien is still only 29, so a 3-year deal plus an option would seem to make sense in a veteran role among the rookie wave. As far as Tanaka goes, the Twins have a chance against the Yankees in the sense that they just have to win on the posting fee number, not the contract. I know this isn't how Ryan thinks or operates and I'm not optimistic on anything but low-budget, low-risk, high-reward type signings like Yoon (and there is NO Posting Fee to acquire him), but perhaps Pohlad was serious in his public statements to stop the "embarrassment" now and open the checkbook, plus put all of $25M in the media money to work towards the payroll and not the TF debt.

More interesting than Nishi, to be sure. And probably for not much more money than Nishi. They still need to make a serious offer at Tanaka.

Excellent points. The inability to either understand what they had in Ortiz, or to extricate commensurate value in a trade for Oritiz are Management 101 case studies for Epic Failure. And out of these 6 players that you cited, who is going to end up being in the HOF? Hunter, Santana, Cuddyer, Morneau? Great players.....but....Nope. Mauer? Possibly, if he avoids more debilitatiing injury and sustains similar production-levels into his mid-30s. Ortiz? He seems by far the most likely to reach the HOF, unless a direct and unequivocal PED implication is laid at his feet.

But it sure would have been nice to have gotten some decent players as a nice parting gift in return for moving Ortiz....instead of.....nothing.....

I think this qualifies for the Understatement of the Century (thus far). The Cubs trade for Ernie Broglio made sense at the time, too. Future HOFer Lou Brock was a great regular season player, but an absolute gamer in postseason, he was probably the missing piece from an already-building-into-a-very good lineup (sound familiar?) that ultimately could have put the Cubs over the top in subsequent years (like 1969). [brock's postseason slash line is .391/424/.655/.1079] Rationalize all you want......and any way you wish to do so, but this was a gaffe of epic proportions.

I guess Twins managment really showed him, didn't they now? People, Ortiz has proven to have likely been the missing post-season gonad-rich piece from all of those Twins playoff runs that fell flat on their face what with all the throat-grabbers on this team during the 00s.

From MLB traderumors on Tuesday. It's now up to 8 teams that were apparently in the running, with supposedly 5 that were in it for the similar big dollars that he ultimately received (add the Rockies and one other to the big dollar list), and curiously, the Sox familiarity with past Cubans and their success with the organization was a significant factor: 1) "Also from the conference, Abreu himself stated (through his translator) that the history of Cuban players finding success in the White Sox organization was an important element for him in choosing to sign with the Sox. 2) Abreu's agent, Barry Praver, tells Dan Hayes of CSN Chicago that eight teams made offers to his client, and five of the offers hit $60+MM (Twitter link). It's already been reported that the Rockies were surprise contenders, offering $63MM over six years." Minnesota Twins Rumors: MLB Rumors - MLBTradeRumors.com

From MLB traderumors on Tuesday. It's now up to 8 teams that were in the running, with apparently 5 that were in it for the similar big dollars that he ultimately received, and curiously, the Sox familiarity with past Cubans and success with the organization was a significant factor: 1) "Also from the conference, Abreu himself stated (through his translator) that the history of Cuban players finding success in the White Sox organization was an important element for him in choosing to sign with the Sox. 2) Abreu's agent, Barry Praver, tells Dan Hayes of CSN Chicago that eight teams made offers to his client, and five of the offers hit $60+MM (Twitter link). It's already been reported that the Rockies were surprise contenders, offering $63MM over six years." Minnesota Twins Rumors: MLB Rumors - MLBTradeRumors.com

Since you are predicting the Twins to go all-in the Far East, why not also sign Tanaka and get Wladimir Balentien out of his 3-year contract with the Swallows to play LF? There are ample available $$$ to sign all 4 of the above- and suddenly the Twins would be the talk of the American League as legitimate contenders. Yoon is still a crap shoot to return to form as a SP, Tanaka would replace him, only as the Ace- not the #5 starter- along with Wood and Messenger- a terrific top 3, with Yoon battling Correia, Deduno, Gibson and Meyer for spots at the bottom of the Rotation.