DaveW
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Everything posted by DaveW
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It depends...Rosario is still a top 60 or so prospect and his value isn't going to take a massive hit. He wasn't going to start out in MLB this year anyways. If they are planning on resigning Choo (which it sounds like they want to make a run at him if they can shed Bailey and Phillips contracts) then they don't need Arcia at all with Hamilton in CF and Bruce in RF. As far as immediate help, Dozier or Perkins could provide that.
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In a heartbeat. Dozier+Gibson+Plouffe maybe gets em to bite? As far as "center pieces go" I would prefer the following to give up: 1. Perkins 2. Dozier 3. Rosario
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Listen, the reality is the Twins aren't going to bring in 5 brand new pitchers outside the org for 2014, they aren't going to bring 4, so you are going to have to use some guys that were around in 2013, Pelfrey, for better or worse showed flashes and out performed some of the other internal options (and has a better track record than most of them)
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Ryan shouldn't worry himself how the casual fan will react with a signing like this, his job is to put the best product on the field for 2014/2015 moving forward. Not satisfy a bunch of people on a message board day in and day out during an off-season. The reality is, it will be at least another month or two before we can even begin to start making "grades" about an off-season (which still will be incomplete). If the Twins like Pelfrey better than the other options in his "class" (i.e. the 5-6 mil a year pitchers) then there is zero reason to wait until later to sign him (just like how signing Correia was the right decision last year, and was proven later) Signing Pelfrey doesn't stop them from signing ANYONE at this point, it's not like the rotation is suddenly full at that point.
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I don't find it worrisome at all, it's just how negotiations go in general, just because they need pitching big time doesn't mean Ryan should go out and start making bad deals (overpaying) left and right. The amount they are offering Pelfrey have really no effect on what they might offer a Garza type.
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Most fan bases would be pretty happy if their GM went out and signed the top FA pitcher on the market. Sheesh rough crowd.
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Sure, why not, I don't have anything to do tomorrow except fight the masses at the train station and trek over to the gf's folks house for thanksgiving. Why? Where has this $20 million been hinted to, discussed? The Twins have been linked to numerous players who have significant contract demands. Why? What reason? They have been linked to significantly more players than position players (just a few catchers) Sarcasm, I get it. Or Garza, or Ubaldo, or Santana potentially, or Kazmir. What exactly are you stating at this point? Doubtful. Perhaps you shouldn't react so much to a random report. The Twins still have DeDuno, Correia, Gibson, Diamond, Albers, Hendriks and maybe even Worley who will prob be ahead of them in the potential internal SP "battle" Not to mention the Free agents this highly likely will sign. It's not about saving money, its about bringing in a superior pitcher and signing him long term. Who on earth is Chris Raul? Again with the sarcasm, Fryer is nothing more than org depth at this point, people are over-reacting about him being on the 40 man roster. Once they sign a ML catcher he most likely is gone anyways. You can't protect every single player from the rule 5 draft, and its highly, highly, highly unlikely either of those two will get picked. I mean you are talking about two older prospects who aren't even in the top 40 in the whole org. What?
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Tanaka is a complete unknown so I am leaving him out of this period. As far as free agents: I think Garza is the only one more attractive, and as far as realistic pitchers being shopped, David Price is obviously the gold standard. There was a rumbling about Shelby Miller being shopped, but frankly that isn't an option period. So yeah, Bailey is right there for me as realistic target. What is so egregious about your trade offer, is none of those players have any value. Plouffe would be a bench bat for Cinci, and within a year or two is a non tender candidate unless he turns it around. Jones and Rosario are both on the outside of the Twins top 25 prospects. Harrison is really the only thing of value, but even his is pretty limited at this point as he isn't close at all to being a top 100 or 150 prospect at this point.
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No, you really can't. http://www.thecubreporter.com/book/export/html/3511 Performance-incentive bonuses are permitted in Major League contracts, but a bonus cannot be based on batting or pitching skill, or where the club finishes in the standings. A performance-incentive bonus can, however, be tied to days spent on an MLB Active List during the MLB regular season, and/or Games Played, Games Started, Games Finished, and/or Innings Pitched for pitchers, or Games Played, Games Started, and/or Plate Appearances for position players. Awards such as MVP, Cy Young, Silver Slugger, and/or Gold Glove, and/or being named to an All-Star team, can also be tied to an incentive bonus.
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In re: to the World Series bit. Let's not pretend Farrell didn't do a ton of weird things in the playoffs/world series in regards to his lineup: 1. Pinch hitting Brandon Workman a pitcher...in the world series...in a big spot...with Mike Napoli on the bench. 2.Playing Gomes over Nava for no real reason. It really didn't matter who was behind the plate for the Red Sox, they won the world series because Papi basically was in full beast mode. -
Garza would turn that down in a heartbeat, you also can't build in incentives based on statistics such as ERA.
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Arroyo also costs 3x as much....
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You realize he has a 6.06 ERA and 68 ERA+ in his 150+ IP in the majors right? You are just being silly now.
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No he isn't similar to them, he is 27 and now just entering his prime. Ubaldo has been very inconsistent his last three years, what pitcher is he? The One who pitched well in 2013 for the Indians? Or the one who put up a 5.25 ERA int he two years prior for Clev? Santana- no. Kazmir...i Like him, but are you kidding me? He had his first decent (4.04 ERA) in FIVE years. Your suggested trade offer is all I need to see to not take any of this seriously, you can't trade 4 guys with zero value and get something great back. Plouffe is a mediocre 3rd baseman, Baxendale is low upside back end starter at best, Zach Jones is in A ball and a RP with control issues, and Travis Harrison is still a long shot as well.
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First off in a total of just a tad over 5 full seasons (adds in the partial seasons of 2013, 2007 and non existent one of 2012) he has 10.2 WAR, which alone indicates he is in fact not replacement level. Also 20% of those numbers (2013) are him coming off of Tommy John Surgery........ Meanwhile, Nolasco has a 4.37 ERA, 1312 IP, 1385 H, 94 ERA+ and people want to give him 4 years and 4x the overall money. Continue to disgaree, and spout off all you want, but if he If he gives you his pre TJS numbers of 185-200 IP and a 4.25-4.35 ERA he provides plenty of value.
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Personal preference, McGwire was merely good not great until the roids kicked in towards his end in Oakland. Also he is an admidted cheat after he stood in front of the American people/Congress and lied to everyone's faces (ala Sosa and Palmerio as well) At least Clemens and Bonds never did that, additionally Bonds and Clemens are just in such a different level of greatness period. Bonds is maybe the best hitter of all time and had plenty of other value as well, and Clemens is the best pitcher of all time. Big Mac though great was pretty one dimensional (the long ball) As far as other suspected "roid users" i don't really care, I never saw proof for Piazza/Bagwell etc.
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The only pitcher of equal value on the market is Garza (and actually I like Bailey more since he is 3 years younger) Jimenez isn't, Santana certainly isn't, Nolasco isn't even close. The Twins have a ton of depth in the minors, trading away one of the top prospects not named Sano, Buxton, Meyer or Stewart hardly is "trading off the damn future"
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Those two seasons I mentioned he had a 113 and 107 ERA+, you understand how ERA+ works and how your average #4 and #5's rank on it correct? For comparisons sake, Jon Lester, the world series winning Red Sox ace had a 109 ERA+ this season. The Twins have had exactly 4 pitchers pitch for a 107 or higher ERA+ in the last 4 years.
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You do realize he was coming off Tommy John surgery literally 1 year to the day, right? It typically takes most pitchers some time after that to get back to "normal" by his own admission prior to opening day he admitted "rushing the rehab" in order to get back and get a contract for 2013. You do realize this, right? Or do you just want to continue to ignore this (and his success in New York) to fit your tired rhetoric?
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Also in two of his four full seasons (prior to TJS) Pelfrey posted 3.66 ERA and a 3.72 ERA with over 200 IP each season. Which actually is the opposite of "bad"
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Fired on the spot for trying to sign a guy who can be a solid back end guy? Ok, yeah that makes sense. You are completely wrong about him being "bad" for most of his career: Once again, His four full seasons in New York he averaged 196 IP a season along with a 4.27 ERA. For comparisons sake: Ricky Nolasco's last 4 seasons: 188 IP, 4.48 ERA. Bronson Arroyo last 4 seasons: 208 IP, 4.05 ERA (however looking for 30+ mil and 3 years as a 37 year old) Phil Hughes last 4 seasons: (Who I advocate signing) 147 IP 4.65 ERA Jason Vargas last 4 seasons: 197 IP, 3.97 ERA (32 mil contract signed) The beauty about Pelfrey is he will cost literally a FRACTION of those players. Sure Pelfrey's 2013 ERA etc look ugly, however as mentioned his FIP and xFIP tell a diff story, and he was a much diff pitcher once he came back to the Twins after more or less a couple weeks off......and he was on a very very aggressive path/timeline back from TJS. His velocity and everything is back to normal (and possible it gets even higher?) and as mentioned his k/9 rate saw an increase...and is still only 29. It's actually a perfect buy low signing, especially if they can get a team option for a third year. If he gives you his pre TJS numbers of 185-200 IP and a 4.25-4.35 ERA he is a freaking steal at 5-6 mil a year.
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For all the hate he is getting, Pelfrey lead the staff last year in K/9, WAR and was only .03 behind Albers for the FIP lead. Additionally he was 2nd in IP. I get that the rotation was terrible, but they aren't going to bring in 4 or 5 new pitchers via trades/free agency, so you need to get some cheap production somewhere.
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I don't think Hammer has any significant value after coming off his 2013 campaign where he has negative defensive value, and hit shockingly bad. (0.0 WAR overall) I doubt the Twins could get anything more than a C prospect straight up for him at this point. The best bet is to hope he regains some form during the season, and swap him out for a C+ prospect IMO I don't think its that lateral of a move with Choo/Phillips, Choo will prob cost 5/90 or so and has a significantly better bat then Phillips (who is regressing quite a bit). Choo should move over to the corner OF and should be above average there, and you are looking at a guy who should post a 3.5-4.5 WAR year in and year out for the next few years in LF/RF.
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This is being debated to death in other threads, the only thing i will say its still very early, none of the real top free agents sans McCann are off the board at this point (I don't really count Lincecum as that was different) and Josh Johnson basically choose where he wanted to go. None of the guys the Twins have been linked to have signed anywhere yet I believe.
