DaveW
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Everything posted by DaveW
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2009 draft is all that needs to be said, 3 PG's chosen in the first 17 picks, and he passed twice on Stephen Curry....ugh. The only thing that barely saved him in that draft was that Rubio finally agreed to come over years later.. McHale was much better IMO, his huge bonehead move was the Joe Smith Fiasco, however that punishment was so over the top, Stern is such a P.O.S
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Also, Ryan earned his stripes the hard way, 6 years as a damn fine scout for the Mets, followed by scouting director by the Twins for 6 years and another couple years as McPhails right hand man before taking over as GM, in which he took one of the lowest payrolled teams in baseball and built the core that won 6 division titles in 9 years with a damn fine run of good trades, including the Knoblauch one, The AJ one, Hollins for David Ortiz, Kelly for Joe Mays, Buchannan for Bartlerr, Kielty for Shannon Stewart, Aggie for Loshe, Milton for Silva/Punto. Yeah, things have sucked since he has been back, but he was dealt a pretty ****ty hand and really, has he made a bad trade/bad signing yet? I'd like to think I am a pretty smart baseball fan/have been playing/watching/studying my whole life/strong business background etc, however I can say without a doubt I couldn't hold a freaking candle to what Ryan has done and will continue to do, chances are nearly everyone else here would be the exact same (if not everyone). I appreciate the kind words about my blueprint, but there is a ton more going on behind the scenes/complications that none of us are really aware of. Also in re: to my blueprint, that would be assuming those players all would sign for the amounts I suggested, whereas there are reports of all 4 guys looking for higher deals (Garza, Salty, Hughes) or 1 year deals (Hughes)
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"I'm a fan, how hard could being a GM be?"- David Kahn It's not impossible, but that is a quick change of tune for your "a good number of posters here could do a better job etc etc"
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I'd rather just take the good half of that 40%
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Because going 3 years for Arroyo is not a prudent move?
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Skip is more of a super UTIL guy, right? Not exactly a starter any-were at this stage of his career. They could re-sign Choo if they trade Phillips and Homer, so not sure if corner OF is as large of a need as it appears if they have Choo and Bruce in RF/LF and B Hamilton in CF. I'd be more than happy to make Perkins the center piece of the trade if that is what they wanted (losing Perkins would suck as I am a big fan, but it wouldn't be to heartbreaking to part with) Not sure I'd be thrilled to add in Rosario as well in that deal however. Maybe Perkins+Gibson or Perkins+Berrios?
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Gibson shouldn't be untouchable at all when it comes to Bailey IMO. But i would prob give up Berrios instead.
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.974 career OPS good for 14th all time, right behind Stan the Man, Joe Dimaggio and the Mick. Right ahead of Miggy. If you take off his age 37+ seasons, he had a .996 OPS over 15 seasons....that is insane. Also 500+ HR etc etc
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• Jeff Bagwell- Yes, No Brainer. • Craig Biggio- Yes, No Brainer. • Barry Bonds- Yes, No Brainer • Roger Clemens- Yes, No brainer. • Tom Glavine Yes, No brainer. • Jeff Kent No • Greg Maddux- Yes no brainer. • Edgar Martinez One of my favorite players ever, Yes. .933 OPS very underated • Don Mattingly- No • Fred McGriff- No • Mark McGwire- No • Jack Morris- No • Mike Mussina- No • Rafael Palmeiro- No • Mike Piazza- Yes • Tim Raines- No • Curt Schilling- No • Lee Smith- No • Sammy Sosa- No way • Frank Thomas- Yes, No Brainer. • Alan Trammell- No • Larry Walker- Yes
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I don't think they would need to trade Phillips at the same time, Phillips won't be the easiest guy in the world to move due to his contract but its really not that awful (4 years 51 mil) but whoever loses out on the Cano sweepstakes would prob take him if Cinci kicks in a bit of money.
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Also I know there is a lot of talk about Bailey wanting to hit the market, however if you offer him 5/88 extension (Sanchez money) prior to the start of 2014 season I think he HAS to listen. Actually, you could prob go 6/95 (rip up his 2014 contract) to help offset some of the costs moving forward/spread it out (he would be due about 4 mil this year in arb)
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MLBTR report that the Twins are keen on him, he would be avail in a trade from Cinci, assuming the Twins could sign him to an extension (5 years starting in 2015) I think going after him would be a no brainer. He is young, and has finally lived up to his talent the last two years, improving each year. His ERA/FIP/XFIP last year was 3.47/3.31/3.34 and his k/9 was 8.57 bb/2.33 With Cinci more or less aggressively shopping Phillips in trade talks, they are going to have a need for a 2B pretty quickly. Would a package centered around Rosario (top 70 prospect) along with Gibson and a guy like Walker be enough to get conversations started? Would you need to add a guy like Pinto/Berrios into the mix as well instead of Walker? I would give up basically anyone not named Sano, Buxton, Stewart or Meyer for him at this point in a heartbeat. IMO Bailey along with an extension seems like the PERFECT acquisition for the Twins, he gives you a real nice #2/poor mans Ace moving forward.
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Yeah, that frankly is BS. Terry Ryan didn't just wake up one day and become a GM, he busted his ass through the ranks for years, proving himself time and time again while working his way up the ladder. While I don't have a problem with people criticizing him, I find it pretty ridiculous you claim a bunch of people here, the majority of which don't work in baseball at any capacity nor sports for that matter can do a better job. I know several people who worked with Ryan (and Smith) personally, and they have nothing but great things to say about Ryan's knowledge and leadership abilities.
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Added bonus, staying on Boras' good side
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As I mentioned in the world's greatest blue print ever, the Twins don't HAVE to sign everyone this year, as 2014 they should be aiming to get to the .500 range, they can still sign players next off-season as well. Which is why, at the end of the day I would be happy with a high upside pitcher liker Garza+Pelfrey along with a bat. Leaving plenty of money to sign another solid arm or two (Bailey?) prior to 2015. Hell, maybe the dream scenario would be to: Sign Garza or a Nolasco/Jimenez type guy, Trade for Bailey (Twins linked to him today in trade talks), give Bailey a 5 year extension, sign Pelfrey, sign Salty/AJ
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Dude, nobody is saying he is going to match his 2013 output offensively, NOBODY. Is. Saying. That. In fact, Kab referenced being happy with his .740 OPS (which is what he did in his "worst" in Boston) I agree. Target Field IMO might take a home run or two away from Salty potentially (every relevant HR example you point out only has a decrease of one or two HRs in home vs away...Florimon is irrelevant), but most likely those one or two balls turn into doubles anyways, and as Kab pointed out via OPS examples, his overall OPS would not likely take a hit because of the stadium. The notion that Target Field is some sort of canyon and pitchers park is frankly false. Park factors has TF right in the middle. -
His last 4 years with the Mets he averaged 196 IP a year and a 4.22 ERA, FWIW he also had the highest K rate of his career last year as a Twin at 6.0. After he was brought back up he put up 63 K in 82 inning which creeps him closer to a 7.0 k/9 rate. None of that of course is a sure thing, which is why he comes cheap. However, if given the choice between Pelfrey at 2/10 or 38 year old Arroyo for three times the total salary and 1 more year? Give me Pelfrey. Ideally you could get him on 2/10 or 2/12 with a 7 million dollar TEAM option for a third year I will only be infuriated if he is the best pitcher we sign this off-season
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Two years wouldn't guarantee a rotation spot at all, the Twins have shown in the very recent past they aren't afraid to send a guy down who isn't preforming, even on a guaranteed deal: Nishi, Blackburn etc Again, don't spend a lot fortifying the back end of your rotation, save that money for a high upside pitcher like Garza.
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I actually like Pelfrey as a bounce back candidate, he came back really early from TJS and showed some flashes this year, additionally his FIP and xFIP as stated above show that he got unlucky. Steamer projects him as a 4.27 ERA this year, which is fine for a #4/#5 guy. To be honest, I would rather give Pelfrey 2/8 or something like that, then give Arroyo 3/36 or 3/30. I think Pelfrey has a chance to be just as effective as someone like that over the next couple years, costs a lot less and allows you to spend more money on a front end guy like Garza. Question: If the Twins signed Garza and Pelfrey this off-season along with a bat, would you be satisfied? Hell, if anything, signing Pelfrey gives you the opp to sign a guy like Garza along with a high risk/high reward guy like Kazmir. Garza Kazmir Gibson Correia Pelfrey DeDuno, Meyer waiting in the wings....could be a decent start. Prior to the injury Pelfrey was putting up about 200 IP a year for the Mets, if he can give you 180-200 IP with a 4.25-4.40 ERA he ends up being a pretty nice signing. (And that isn't factoring in the chance he could even put a sub 4.00 ERA up)
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Uh yeah, I realize that. Notice how all of those contracts were FA contracts THEO signed while GM of the Red Sox. You said he doesn't play the FA market or whatever because of his bright mind. Frankly, the cubs haven't done anything yet under him. Yeah, they built a nice farm system, but as we know as Twins fans, that only goes so far, results are needed.
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Huh?FA Signings by Theo while with the Red Sox OF Carl Crawford (2010, 7 years, $142 million) LHP David Wells (2004, 2 years, $8.1 million) OF J.D. Drew (2007, 5 years, $70 million) SS Marco Scutaro (2009, 2 years, $12.5 million) SS Edgar Renteria (2004, 4 years, $40 million) RHP Matt Clement (2004, 3 years, $25.8 million) SS Julio Lugo (2006, 4 years, $36 million) RHP Daisuke Matsuzaka (2006, 6 years, $52 million plus $51 million posting fee) RHP Brad Penny (2008, 1 year, $5 million) RHP John Smoltz (2009, 1 year, $5.5 million) RHP John Lackey (2009, 5 years, $82.5 million) OF Mike Cameron (2009, 2 years, $15.5 million) RHP Bobby Jenks (2010, 2 years, $12 million) Beltre Ortiz etc
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No you stated that Doumit was better defensively as well.
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I'm not the one who made it up or came up with the methodology, its widely accepted in the SABR community that states the 5 mil per win for when you are dealing with a player in free agency and/or arbitration. Obviously a younster like Trout who posts a 10 WAR at 500k a year is a very nice thing to have, there is a good chance that in 2015 Buxton, Sano, Meyer will all be 3.5 WAR+ players for a total cost of 1.5 mil. Guys like Rosario, Arcia, Pinto, Gibson, Dozier, Hicks, May, all have the possibility to give you 2-3 WAR a season at a minimum cost. Add in some solid FA signings (5 mil per war, 40 mil total a year over the next few years) and you have all the makings of a 90-95 win team.
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When I talk about improving, I am talking about improving on his 2011 and 2012 numbers. Nobody is claiming he is going to hit for .820 moving forward, if that was the case he would be worth a 4/55 contract. Everyone who is for the signing has maintained that even if Salty hits .740 a year moving forward, he is still a prudent signing. It's really hard to take you serious at this point, you come out firing that Doumit is better than him in every sense of the word (where every advanced stat proves you wrong) you then start claiming you are a master statistician and a SABR member (better than the rest of us or something?) and that you caught in high school and that pitch framing is easy. Frankly you are all over the place and now are just making up other people's arguments.
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Um....comparing high school baseball to MLB is not relevant to this discussion at all. If teaching it is so easy, then why is AJ so below average after 15+ years in the majors? He is just a non teachable player? Does he not work hard? What about Napoli? Is he lazy? Stupid? Or maybe does it just come naturally to some people other than others as a skill.
