mlhouse

Rushing players to the big leagues doesn't cause "damage". Sorry, but players all over the major leagues and throughout major league history have been "rushed' to the majors. Kent Hrbek went from A+ ball to the major leagues. The claim, made often here, that modern baseball development is different is specious. By 1984, he was the runner up in MVP voting in a year that with the current Twins approach to development would have put him in AAA ball without any major league at bats. Aaron Judge was in the major leagues in his 3rd professional season; in 2014 he was in A and A+ leagues. In 2015 he was in AA and AAA. In 2016 he started in AAA and finished in major leagues. Alex Bregman was in the majors in his 2nd professional season. And, as I have pointed out over and over again, what makes those rosters (check out how they developed their players) different from the Twins is that somehow they move their players up through the minors and into their starting lineups and develop them into STAR players on teams that are actually good and very competitive. WHen was the last college player that the Twins drafted that made their major league debut at 22? Brent Rooker is already 24 years old. The claims of "rushing" these players is specious.

Money in ownership's pocket means more money available in the future when the team develops its core players and needs to fill the remaining holes to be competitive. There is one reason why this delays the rebuild. The next is that it delays the development of the next level of prospects. Players like Brent Rooker who now will sit behind a 38 year old and be pushed back to the minors. Getting these players up and developing on the MLB level needs to be the priority, not signing aged players that will not contribute to any type of success the team will have in the future. If Brent Rooker, and Lewis, and Kirilloff are not bona fide players, all the Nelson Cruz's int eh world are not going to turn around this franchise.

82 wins is not moving the needle. It is just continued mediocrity at best and it is nothing but a short term salve to make all of the believers hope done at long term cost of extending the rebuild on and on and on.

Why this team "builds" to be a 81 win team is beyond me. Here are the facts: 1. We don't have "needs" unless "needs" means adding talent at just about every roster spot. 2. One year "rentals" are for teams that are competitive but need a short term value to maintain or increase their competitiveness. The Twins are a rebuilding team, not a competitive team and this move really does not move the needle much. 3. Signing a 37 year old designated hitter means that the limited defensive flexibility of this team has just gotten more limited. Where does Cron play? Sano? Austin? Rooker? Garver? (I am not even going to address adding another right handed hitter to the mix). Nelson Cruz is a very good hitter, no doubt. Over the past 4 seasons he has hit 163 home runs for the Mariners. Over those 4 seasons the Mariners have won an average of 82 games with arguably much better talent. Lets say that Cruz, and even Cron have good years. The team wins 84 games each of the next seasons. Then what? Because everyone on our roster is now 30+ years old we have to bring in the young prospects with absolutely no experience and rebuild again? Is it really worth it?

If Kiriloff etc et al are not at least as good as Rosario, we are in trouble. We are a sub-500 club and if our upcoming prospects are not better than the team we field now this is going to be a forever rebuild.

If Rosario, Buxton, and Kepler are as good as the Twins can get in the OF, then we might as well give up now.

I think the Twins approach to the rotation is pretty straight forward. 1. You start with Berrio, Gibson, and Odorizzi. However, the latter two could become expendable if the right deal comes along but only for the right deal. 2. Fernando Romero is my 4th starter no matter what. He has been the top pitching prospect in the organization for quite some time. You slot him in and you give him at least 1/2 the year in this spot. 3. Although I don't think the pitching gimmicks make sense, the 5th starter spot should be a combination of Gonsalves and Meija, with both scheduled to start alternating who is the opener and who isn't. Since the 5th guy isn't required to pitch all the time, they can fill in as long relievers when needed. 4. Rogers and Hildenberger are your top 2 set up men. NEither are going to be closers. 5. ALthough I don't like it, I sign a short term free agent closer to an inexpensive contract. 6. Gabriel Moya is the next guy in the bullpen. 7. Andrew Vasquez is the lefty specialist. 8. Trevor May is the last guy on the staff. I trade or release Addison Reed. Guys like Curtiss, Busenitz, are in AAA and if they are called up they are basically on their last string. Lastly, how the bullpen is used depends upon how the guys perform. Maybe May pitches so well you can't keep him out of 75 appearnace and Hildenberger loses some of his appearances. Some of these guys might not pan out. But hopefully from the group we develop enough quality pitchers we can get the core group experience moving forward, then fill the holes with the right free agents.

The real problem is that the Twins should not have this many unanswered questions about their own internal prospects at this stage. Maybe we should ask: 1. WHy not just go with Fernando Romero. Why send him back to AAA instead of letting him pitch the last half of the season. Take away the terrible 6th start (1.2 innings 8 ERs) he has a 3.50 ERA. Give him the ball every 5th start the rest of the way and see what happens. The team was out of contention so giving him the extra look costs absolutely nothing. 2. WHy should we be asking anything about Andrew Vasquez? Why not give him more than the late season 9 appearance, 5 innings he got when he has a 1.52 career minor league ERA? 3. Not counting the 4 potisional players who took the mound, the Twins burned through 30 pitchers last season and 35 the year before? They had 15 starts for a 44 year old in 2017. 25 appearances for a 38 year old Matt Belisle in 2018. And became the last home of most of the waiver wire pitchers in MLB baseball over the past couple of years. Yet, we don't have any clue about some of the top prospects from this system. That these questins remain unanswered going into the 9th year of our XXX year rebuilding "plan" (notice I left the possibility of triple digits) demonstrates why this will be a never ending struggle. Here is some things this FO needs to understand. 1. The only way you can really evaluate these players is by putting htem on the field. Spring Training and minor leagues are not the right forum for these evaluation. 2. Players can and should be developed at the major league level when you are rebuilding. 3. The faster you move the players up to their level of failure, the faster you bring up the right players. 4. Mediocre players on multi-million contracts are millions of dollars thrown out the door. 5. The free agent players we are signing will be available every off-season. You can always find a Zach Duke, Fernando Romney, Lance Lynn or even Jake Odorizzi in the free agent pool during the offseason. Instead of committing the financial resources while you are rebuilding, wait until you truly have "holes" to fill. Then make the moves.

What you are missing is that the success or failure of the Twins in the near term is not based upon Rondell White or Logan Forsythe, guys you bring in to fill in. Instead, it depends upon the core group of prospects. If Lewis-Kirilloff-Rooker-Berrios become Puckett-Hrbek-Gaetti-Viola, some of the other prospects become the Greg Gagne's and Dan Gladden, and the "fill in" players Brian Harper, Shane Mack, and Chili Davis then we have a chance to compete. If they become 2018 versions of Miguel Sano and Buxton, then it is a much longer stretch of misery for us. Also, instead of committing $10-15-20 million a year on guys like Ricky Nolasco, Phil Hughes, and even Ervin Santana, use your prospects while you are rebuilding so you have the financial flexibility to make a better free agent play once it will matter. Ervin Santana had, despite injuries, the best 4 year stretch of his career, including 2017 which was the best year of his career. Yet, the Twins spent $55 million (including the $1 million buyout) to average 86 losses in his 4 years on the roster. I call that a waste of money.

Again, YOU WILL LOSE WITH THESE GUYS ANYWAYS. I don't understand why certain Twins fans and the two front office administrations do not understand this. Bringing in mediocre at best free agents and your prospects up essentially piece meal will mean you will go through an extended "rebuilding" period of losing, losing, losing. This is not hindsight. I have been saying this since the start of 2012. I get losing sucks. I get that being a "wild card" playoff team was like an opioid for long suffering Twins fans. But plugging these guys in just gets you more mediocrity and I would argue that pursuing the wild card in 2017 hurt the long term prospects of the team much more than it helped. Why? The proof is in the roster. If you look at our roster how many "established" players do we have? Rosario. Berrios. Gibson maybe (if you think the 2015 and 2018 Gibson is the real Gibson vs. the 2016 and 2017 Gibson). Odorizzi if you accept what you see is what you get? Is Kepler, who seems to have reached his capabilities good enough to be on this list? How about Garver who certainly has not proven it to management. Maybe CJ Cron who had a great year hitting 30 home runs on the year, only to be designated for assignment? Personally, although I would listen to arguments for the players I mentioned, the Twins have two, count them, two players I say are established: Rosario and Berrios. Everybody after that has significant issues because of either injuries, off field problems, or inconsistent play or combinations of all of them. Here is the solution: you bring up the lot of your prospects. Lewis, Kirilloff, Rooker, Gordon, Wade, Arreaz. You bring back Astudillo. You hand the ball to Gonslves and Romero. You start the season with Vasquez and several other guys in the pen. YOu work those guys with the other players on the roster: Cave, Buxton, Rosario, Sano, Garver, Polanco, Kepler, Austin and you see who can play and who cannot. Sure, you might lose 100 games, but it is worth it if these prospects are the guys that are going to make this team competitive. You play them through mistakes and losses, letting your young manager deal with the young guys. By the end of the year you should see progress from the players that have futures and probably know who will not make it going forward. In 2020 you would see another step forward and then the FO can start thinking about who to bring in to "fill holes".

Who cares about the AL Central? Winning the AL Central means we lose to the Yankees for the umteenth millionth time 0-3. 2nd, you are missing the point. YOu build around Lewis, Kirilloff, Rooker, Gordon, and the remianing young players that are now on the roster. You give these guys experience and hopefully Buxton and Sano, and Kepler, rebound. If they do, you don't have a complete disaster of a season and the young guys should be playing much better by the end of 2019. If some of the guys falter, you bring up their replacements quickly. Then with a more experienced team you start looking at filling in the gaps with free agent/trade acquisitions with the financial flexibility you have then because you didn't blow it chasing meaningless, non-competitive wins NOW. THis is rebuilding 101 for a team like the Twins (other teams with huge budgets might have different paths).

78 wins in 2019? Wooooohooo.

No, giving opportunities to young players like Brent Rooker or Nick Gordon, and keeping the payroll flexible for when the Twins are actually competitive. Why commit money to players that will be here today, not really do much, and then be gone tomorrow. None of these guys are going to swing the needle much so why not lose while developing and evaulating the prospects?

What is the fascination of 30+ year old players that will be here only for a short time?

The whole point of this is that he has apparently added a the slider to his pitch mix. WIht a 3-4 pitch selection and much improved command from earlier in hsi career this isn't a "bad idea" given that hte Twins lack a quality rotation and do not have a left handed starter.

A quality left handed starter is worth way more than a good left handed relief pitcher. IT isn't even close and attempting to make turn him back into a starter doesn't preclude him going back in the pen.

1. I think the Twins should try Taylor Rogers as a starting pitcher. He added a 3rd pitch and was a starter through most of his career, and would give the Twins a left handed starter. 2. I disagree with moving Kepler to first. The Twins already have several players that have defensive limitations that they need to keep the position open for. It is a natural spot for Miguel Sano. They have Tyler Austin. And now just added CJ Cron to that group. Brent Rooker is sitting in the minors, and I could see them adding a guy like Ryan O'Hearn in the Rule 5 draft to get a left handed hitter to that mix.

Based on what I assume the Twins will do, I don't think that this is that bad of a decision because it is low risk, relatively low cost, and has some upside in the end game. I get that it might be preferable to find a left handed hitter to work in the mix, but not all opportunities fall from the trees. I think there is enough ABs to work Austin, Sano, and Cron in the lineup. It is obviously low cost and low risk, and if Cron hits you could potentially move him around the trade deadline for prospects. At the same time, and continuing my series, why not just start the season with Brent Rooker instead? Rooker and Cron are very similar players. Both right handed power hitters that were first round draft picks out of college (witht he exception being Rooker was a 4th year college player). Both players pounded Rookie level ball in their initial professional debut. And while Cron spent the next year in A+ ball, the Twins (uncharacteristically) advanced Rooker to A+ ball that same season. Cron had a slightly higher A+ batting average but Rooker had higher OBP and Slg, with a A+ OPS of .917 vs. Cron's .843. It is also important to note that because Rooker was a 4th year college player, they both played A+ ball as 22 year olds. AS 23 year olds both Cron and Rooker played a full season of AA. Cron, in 2013 hit .274 with a OBP of .319 and SLG of .428 (OPS .746) with 14 home runs in 519 at bats. Rooker hit .254 with a OBP of .333 and SLG of .465 (OPS .798) with 22 home runs in 503 at bats. WHile statistically Rooker is slightly better than Cron, he has had a much higher strike out percentage than Cron, with Rooker's minor league strike out percentage being almost double Cron. But then also, Rooker started slowly in AA last season, had incredibly hot June and July months with OPS over 1.000 before having a terrible end of the season in August and September. I will also add that the Angels never really seemed to commit to Cron while he was with them. They brought him up as a 24 year old and he hit reasonably well with a OPS of .739 and 11 home runs in 253 ABs. But he started in AAA the following 2015 season, then was called up and hit 16 home runswith a .739 OPS and then started the 2017 season in AAA again before being brought up and having an almost duplicate season. Cron's 2018 Rays season was his first complete major league season and then they designated him for assignment after a pretty solid season. From the evidence, Rooker has a lot more power potential and despite more Ks and lower average and significantly higher strikout percentage, a much higher on base average than Cron. I can perhaps see having Rooker spend some time in AAA to see if he can work on cutting back on his strike outs and that will be a concern for him going to the major league level. So, I would personally just start out with Rooker. But, what I hope is that Rooker plays well in AAA, Cron hits well in Minnesota, and then at the trade deadline we can move Cron for prospects.

With the added 3rd pitch and command, why not consider moving him to the starting rotation? HE was a starter until he reached the majors, 87 starts in 99 minor appearances.

Then, of course, in 2017 he hit .313 against LHP with a .794 OPS (.809 OPS vs. RHP). THen, of course, in 2016 he hit .315 vs LHP with a .893 OPS (.823 OPS vs. RHP). Then, of course, in 2015 he hit .345 vs. LHP with a .966 OPS (.884 OPS vs. RHP). So, with the single exception of 2018 when he played hurt, he has actually hit LHP better than RHP. I think that you can make some argument that the years previous to 2018 were at lower levels, but to claim he is "an automatic out against LHP" isn't true one iota until you cherry pick the statistics.

I get the optimism, but why would any Twins fan have their "mouths watering" over a player that had a .383 OPS, another with a .679 OPS, and a player that will be 33 years old that only played 52 games last season (and only 113 the year before)? Obviously, getting even 80% of a guy that was the league MVP just two seasons ago and was in the top 10 in MVP voting 4 years in a row would be great. But you aren't guaranteed anything with a player that age. And even with that realistic view of his production, what is he really going to do? Get you to 86 wins? At $75 million over 3 years? I don't see the fit. Especially since it is clear that Sano and Buxton are in their last chance mode. Each has 4 years of experience now and the question marks are significant. Will Sano show up at 300 lbs? WIll Buxton even be healthy or ever be healthy? The probability that neither of them are on the Twins roster at the end of the season is pretty significant.

Why would the Twins need him when there is a plethora of 35+ year old back up catchers hitting a career .202 available.

Molitor was injured for parts of his 4th and almost all of his 7th seasons in the league. His first three seasons he had batting averages of .273, .322 and .304. and was an all-star player in his 3rd season. IN his 5th season he hit .302 and scored 136 runs. So, actually being succesful when he was healthy in the early part of his career is what separates Molitor from Buxton. While I think the Twins need to figure out how to essentially rehabilitate Buxton to get him to reach the level of a slightly below average MLB hitter, a major contract extension would be a ridiculous move.

The other question is would Hicks have developed into anything close to a decent player in Minnesota? I know people that are friends with Ron Gardenhire and he actually has (or had) a place that is pretty close to my house on Fort Myers Beach, and perhaps in some ways he was an ok manager. But for the Minnesota Twins of 2011- 2014, he was the worst possible manager for the team to have. A crabby guy who did not put up with any mistakes young players made who wuld rather play an old mediocrity that work with phenomenal athletes with upside like Aaron Hicks.

Jake Cave, another player whose comparable stats are not as good as LaMonte Wade's. In A+ Florida St league Cave's career OPS was .749 vs. Wade's .904. In AA, Cave has a career .742 OPS versus Wade's .815. In fact, both players have identical career 14 AA home runs but Wade hit 14 in 595 at bats versus Cave's 913. The difference in careers is that when Jake Cave had a .674 OPS year going in AA the Yankees promoted him to AAA (to be fair he started again in AA the next season) but when Wade had a full season .805 OPS in AA Chattanooga the Twins made him start the next season at the same level instead of promoting him. In the Yankees system he would have been most probably promoted to AAA during the 2017 season and in the 2018 Spring Training given a good chance to make the majors. But since Wade spent the entire 2017 season in AA he wasn't really given a chance and a guy like Ryan LaMarre was brought north instead. Even if he did not make the club out of spring training, In the Yankees system a player that performed in AA like Wade did would have started the 2018 season in AAA and been available for an in-season call up. The Twins instead sent Wade back to AA putting him behind Cave to start the season. Given the "talent" that we had in Rochester this season this move was ridiculous. If I were an agent for a college player with remaining draft eligibility drafted by the Minnesota I would recommend that they not sign with the Twins. The reason is that the Twins methodical minor league promotion strategy means you will be delayed in reaching the major leagues. If you look at the college players drafted by the Twins on their 2018 roster, not a single player made it before the age of 23. Dozier (25), Garver (26), Gibson (25), Hildenberger(26), and Rogers(25) were all outstanding prospects that the Twins slowly moved through the system even though their big league team was sucking air that did not get a chance until they were 25 years old. Tyler Duffey (24), Aaron Slegers (24), and Andrew Vasquez (24) were "rushed" based on the Twins system. I have already pointed out the Vasquez example, but Hildenberger followed the essentially same course. Trevor Hildenberger has a minor league career 1.57 ERA. Yet, despite success at a level the Twins made him repeat the same level at the start of just about every professional season just like they did with Vasquez. What is even worse, when your team is going to lose 103 baseball games like the Twins in 2016, you would think a pitcher with a 0.70 ERA and 10.5 K/9 might be a guy you would bring up to see if he is a long term answer instead of the players the Twins brought in. It makes zero sense and frankly, these types of decisions (or non-decisions) are why the organization is where it is at.