mlhouse

I said at the time, the game they played with Landon Leach and Blake Enlow wasn't smart. Flip the picks around, just draft Enlow in the second round and pay him his slot price+the first round savings. Then draft Leach in the 3rd round. If he isn't there, what did we lose? If Enlow is a huge prize and you can free the resources to sign him, why risk a full round plus of the draft and have another team snipe him away. Further, the signing bonus premium over the draft slot to sign Enlow as a 2nd round player versus a 3rd round player is much smaller. That means you do not have to scrimp and save on several picks. In the end they got Enlow and signed him. Maybe Leach can recover from his injuries and develop into a solid pitcher. But I do not think this was as clever of a move as some make it to be.

Bill James brought this up in his (I think) 1986 Baseball Abstract. It ain't strategy if everyone does it. It is a rote tactic. The pitcher is coming up to the plate late in the game so you pinch hit, or if the pitcher is up and he bunts. He showed there was a lot more "strategy" in the American League because the choices were much more varied (the standard deviation of bunting, pinch hitting, sacrificing, etc) in the American League vs. the National. Having the DH gave the manager a wider range of tactical choices than in the National. But his other point is why do people think "bunting" is such a big strategic concept?

The Chinese Flu strikes again I guess. This is a major cost savings push because the 2019 bonus slot value for the 10th round was $145,000. Limiting the draft to just 5 rounds and the bonus for undrafted players at $20,000 means a lot of guys just will be going to college out of HS or into their senior year in college rather than enter professional ball this season. I think the better approach would be to have the teams have a pool of bonus money to sign undrafted players so they could bid on players. I think the flat max bonus favors certain teams.

What is interesting is that from the time Harmon was a 23 and a full time player in the majors, 1959 through 1971, the 1965 season was his second worse season (his 1968 season was another injury plagued season that he followed up with perhaps his best season winning the MVP in 1969). Kind of interesting the team would have their best season in 1965.

I would replace Cesar Tovar, who really only had one good year in the 70s for the TWins with Dan Ford. Tovar has OPS+ seasons of 117, 104, 94. in 1970-72. Disco Dan had OPS+ season 114, 125, 108, 110 1975-1978.

The reason to not rate Jim Perry in the top 5 STARTING pitchers in Twins history is that for most of his career with the Twins he was more of a relief pitcher/spot starter than a starting pitcher. This is why his overall stats are much better than Brad Radke's, but his WAR value isn't: he did not pitch 200+ quality innings. IN fact, for the from 1963-68 he basically split between being a starter and reliever, never pitching more than 200 innings when 200 innings wasn't anything for a starting pitcher. In 1969 Perry finished 3rd in Cy Young balloting in his first year as a front line starter, but even in that season he made 10 relief appearances. In 1970 he won the AL Cy Young award making 40 starts and pitching 278 innings. The other issue that we should also factor in when looking at these pitchers from the 1960s and 70s era is arm fatigue. It didn't just injure pitcers and end their career. If you look at the career of Jim Kaat, there are peaks and valleys over his long career. He had solid years in 1966, but in 1966 he pitched 304 innings (Can you imagine). Then he declined over the next couple of seasons, still good but not at that level. Then in 1972 he was having his best year ever and was injured running the bases (he was a reasonable hitter for a pitcher) the year before the DH rule came into effect. Then he was a really good pitcher for the White Sox in 1974 and 1975, but in 75 he pitched 303 innings and then faded away from there. Of course, he still had 8 more seasons, pitching to the age of 44. But he wasn't a high quality pitcher.

While if we use the entire franchise record obviously Walter Johnson is #1 ranked, I think we should only look at era around Twins start. And, that puts Camilo Pascual in the top 5. In his prime from 1958 through 1964 (ages 24 through 31) he had ERA+ seasons of 121, 149, 132, 122, 123, 148, 109, and 107. He led the league in strikeouts three consecutive years 1961-1964. He led the league in shutouts in 1959, 1961, and 162.

I would move Rollins out of that lineup. He was not a good player. Instead, I would put Don Mincher. Move Harmon to 3B, he actually played more OF/3B than first base in the 60s. He played 550 games at first base, 312 games at 2B, and 463 games in the OF.

Baseball reference has a really cool progressive listing of most statistical categories. It shows year by year the career leader of the stat, the active leader of the stat, the season record, and who led the league that year in the stat. What is amazing is the number of records, season and career that will never be broken. Wins: Season: 60 Old Hoss Radbourn set in 1883. Record has stood for 137 years. Career: Cy Young passed Pudd Galvin's 365 win total up in 1903 and hit 511 wins in 1911. 109 years ago. Tim Keefe's season ERA record of 0.86 has stood for 140 years. Ed Walsh's career ERA is going on a century. Hitting? Earl Webb's 67 doubles in a season has been the record since 1931. Tris Speaker became the career doubles leader in 1925, and ended his career in 1928 with 792 doubles. Triples: 36 set in 1912 by Chief WIlson. Sam Crawford set the career triples mark in 1913 and ended up with 309 career triples. Since 1950 only 5 players have had 20 or more triples in a season, with Curtis Granderson's 23 triples in 2007 being the most triples since 1925. To put that in comparison to Crawford's triples record, during his career from 1899 through 1917 he had 10 or more triples from 1900-1916. He had 5 seasons with 20 or more. Thirteen seasons of 15 or more triples.

What you are missing is that to compare stats across time you need to adjust. The juiced baseballs, the steroids, the height of the pitchers mounds. BUT, the players themselves would all be amongst the best players of ANY era.The best baseball players from 1927 would be (you of course have to factor in integration) the best player of today. Ruth, Cobb, Gehrig, Walter Johnson, would all be all-stars in any era. Ruth just would have a different build with modern weight training, nutrition, and training.

One aspect of Sandy Koufax's career that nobody really mentions is the stadium effect. Bill James was the first to bring this up in one of the earliest Bill James books when he originally brought up stadium impacts. Koufax was considered a good pitcher prior to 1962 but not a HOF pitchel. He led the NL in strikeouts in 1961 and made the all-star team but he and Drysdale (who won the CY Young in 1962, Koufax won in 1963,1965, and 1966) had never received a Cy Young vote in their careers. But then the Dodgers moved to Dodger Stadium. If you look at the home-road splits of Koufax's career you can see what "improved". 1960 Home ERA 5.27 Road ERA 3.00 1961 Home ERA 4.22 Road ERA 2.77 1962 Home ERA 1.75 Road ERA 3.53 1963 Home ERA 1.38 Road ERA 2.31 1964 Home ERA 0.85 Road ERA 2.93 1965 Home ERA 1.38 Road ERA 2.72 I will let you guess which year the Dodgers move from Los Angeles Memorial Collisuem to Dodger Stadium. Sandy Koufax is the most overrated pitcher in baseball history. I think Santana deserves more of a look at HOF. Although his career did not put up cumulative numbers like Bert Blyleven, over a the course of his primary career he was a dominant pitcher and was recognized by the observers of the time. A two time CY Young winner, 2 3rd place finishes, a 5th, and a 7th. He placed in the top 10 for MVP twice, and won a gold glove. The real problem with the voting for HOF is that the cumulative stats are what these voters look for. I think eventually Santana WILL get in teh HOF via the veteran committee voting.

Before he moved to Arizona before his death, Kirby lived in my neighborhood. Lets just say that he looked like that fat man image in the video. I think those were hard times for Kirby and you could see that his health was deteriorating. Hard to watch any of this without tears because he was really a once in a lifetime type of sports personality.

I dont think that the data supports your claims. If you look at the college pitchers drafted in the first rounds since 2009 (Gibson's year) here is the age they made their MLB debut: 2009 Strasboug 21 Minor 22 Leike 22 Storern 22 White 22 Jenkins 24 2010 Pomeranz 22 Harvey 23 McGuire 28 Sale 21 2011 Cole 22 Bauer 21 Jungman 25 Bradley 26 reed 24 Barnes 24 Anderson 26 Meyer 25 Gilmartin 25 2012 gausman 22 Henry 23 Wacha 21 Stroman 23 2013 Gray 23 Shipley 24 Gonzalez 22 Gonzales 23 2014 Rodon 22 Nola 22 Freeland 24 Hoffman 23 Beede 25 Newcomb 24 Finnegan 21 Fedde 24 Weaver 22 2015 Tate 25 Fullmer 22 Buechler 22 2016 Quantill 24 Dunn 23 Zeuch 23 Lauer 23 While this is not a perfect study because MLB debut might not be a full measure and there may be typos and other issues in presenting the data, it is clear that the Twins have been slow to move college level pitchers. Most of the college drafted pitchers who are relatively successful in the minors make the major leagues before the age of 24. Some are held up, like Kyle Gibson was, with arm problems or minor league struggles, but those are rarer. And, as I point out many times over, the Twins throughout this period struggled with their pitching stagg. Yet, they moved their college arms stepwise through the system that other organizations would no have.

There is no doubt that the Twins have slowly promoted college pitchers. From 2013 to 2019 there were 15 pitchers that the Twins drafted that made their MLB debut. Of those 15 pitchers only 3 of them made their debut at age 24 (Duffey, Vasquez, Curtiss). Most were 25 years old (Gibson, Rogers, Poppen, Sleger, Chargois, Acther, Darnell). Hildenberger and Wheeler were 26. Eades, Wimmer, and Dean 27. While to a degree most of the names on here made the MLB level for just a quick show they did not have the talent to remain in the league, we have to also remember that the Twins pitching staff was pretty limited throughout most of this time frame. The other factor is that despite having good minor league statistics a lot of these players were still slowly moved through the system. But, a guy like Hildenberger was virtually unhittable as a minor league player at every level. When he got to the Twins in 2016 as a 26 year old player, he pitched very well with a 3.21 ERA and 9.4K/9. His arm did not hold in after his rookie season with the Twins, but when you are moved so slowly it doesn't give you much of a chance for second chances either.

You can never assume that your depth will hold up for outfielders over the near term. Plus, Nelson Cruz is an older player who is in the last year of his deal with the Twins so the DH position eventually will open up too.

Personally I have no idea what people are talking about with his defense. I have actually watched him play several times and he is not a good defensive catcher. He is a huge guy and he lacks mobility behind the plate and his footwork was not very good on his throws to second even in between innings just throwing down. He hasa powerful arm but it lacked accuracy. Maybe when they are talking about his defense they consider the running game to be so devalued now in professional baseball that these attributes do not matter to them. Maybe he has improved so much in his short time after he left Ft. Myers that these claims are true. But, personally, I think they are exaggerated. If he comes to the major league level as a somewhat below average catcher that would be what should be expected. If you are expecting a catcher that is average or above average defensively you will be disappointed. On edit: I do also think that his hit/power tool will be sufficient enough if he continues to develop that he can play catcher at MLB level even though he is a below average defensive catcher.

What is the basis of this? Medical?

Except unlike Arraez Jose doesn't get on base. When you see Miranda come to the plate and at 3B the one thing you cannot get over is that he is huge. One of the biggest infielders I have seen play for the Miracle Mussels. But there is something missing in his swing. I am not sure what it is, but the results are just not good enough.

The "aging curves" only tell one side of the story. Every player declines with age, but Bill James demonstrated a long time ago that high level players usually follow the same curve. So, while they are "declining" their skill levels started at such a higher rate than average that even into their later years they were still effective players. Stan Musial declined as a player. But, in his prime he was a 150-200 OPS+ player so even following a natural decline, at 42 years of age he was still a 101 OPS hitter. With few exceptions, it is only the highly skilled players that can extend their careers into their late 30s and even 40s.

I thought last season's offseason was a failure and it only led to a 101 win season, although most of the production was done by Twins on the team previously. It is a disappointment in that with a solid base there the team did little to add the players they need to get to that next level. But time will tell. I think you can only go in one direction and that half way measures give you failing results.

I have watched Jeffers catch several times and I would be flabbergasted if there are people "in the know" that rave about his defensive skills as a catcher. He is a very big guy and is not very mobile, has some extra steps in his throw to 2nd, and his arm is not overly accurate. Maybe they are looking at his improvement, Maybe I just saw a few of his poorer games. Maybe they are just looking at different variables. But, from my observations it is doubtful that Jeffers can stay at catcher at a major league level on a regular basis.

The key is did these moves add enough talent that the Twins can make similar moves of their own? Can we package Gilberto Celestino and Jorge Alcala and get a reliever like Pressley? If we can't, they are almost all certainly bad trades.

Pass on Price. But the Twins need to look at making a trade for mid-level starting pitcher with only Lewis, Kiriloff, Graterol and Jordan Balazovic off limits in the deal. They also need to commit to creating at least one long term viable starter out of Graterol, Drabnak, and the other starters that bounced back and forth between the majors and minors last season. If we cannot do this, then all of the accolades our "system" gets are overwrought.

The Twins should just pen in Graterol as one of the top 4 starters, particularly with Pineda suspended for the first 40 games. Even if he hits some bumps along the way they should stick with him. Thorpe and Dobnak and Smealtor should compete for the 5th rotation spot. I would also seriously consider keeping Jordan Balazovic with the big league club, skipping a couple of levels in the minors. It would be nice to sign one of the top starters in the free agent market, but it is looking like it isnt going to happen. But with some patience I think Berrios-Odorizzi-Pineda-Graterol-Dabnek could become a solid 1-5 rotation that still ahs other options if one or more of them do not work out.

At least they gave him a chance last season. Not sure if the injuries he seemed to have plagued him. Sometimes the versatility he adds might be worth it if he hit a bit better, but lets see how the roster shakes out.