stringer bell

Agree with the sentiments of Chief and JB. All moves should be ones that not only help now, but build a more solid team down the road. As I've said from spring training on, it isn't out of the question that the Twins will contend in 2015, but the odds are against it. Luck tends to even out, and I have thought for a while that the club has had more than their share of bad luck. The Twins were lucky to play Chicago at exactly the right time. Perhaps more of that is in their future. I am still hoping for meaningful games throughout the season.

With the completion of a four-game sweep, the Twins have gotten over the .500 mark. After their first series in Detroit and a losing series in Chicago, who woulda thunk it? Anyway, while things have gotten better for the Twins, some concerns remain. Here are five in reverse order of importance. 5) Center field. Jordan Schafer has been dreadful, but because he is platooned and there have been a high number of left handed starters, we've seen a lot of the surprisingly competent Shane Robinson (still not an answer in center BTW). I would rate this problem higher if not for both Aaron Hicks and Byron Buxton hitting very well in high minors. One of them will be patrolling center field by Memorial Day, I would guess, perhaps sooner. 4) After years of being problem #1 for the Twins, the rotation has improved. However, there is so much uncertainty there. I can't feel confident when any pitcher starts a game. The distance between Hughes' best game and worst game is the narrowest, but we haven't seen vintage Hughes so far. Ricky Nolasco has only pitched two games and was shelled in one and survived for five innings in the other. All the other guys have had encouraging outings mixed with below average starts. "Life is like a box of chocolates, you never know what you're gonna get". 3) Defense. Torii Hunter had a good series, both offensively and defensively, against the Whities, but he has been a poor defender in right for some years now. Oswaldo Arcia and Eduardo Escobar have gotten the most time in left and they have been below average defenders, as well. Schafer grades out as below average in center. Not much good news in the outfield. Danny Santana has made far too many errors, while showing off fine tools at shortstop. The other regular infielders have done well. On balance, the outfield defense and Santana at short is pretty scary. Santana needs to clean it up, but OF defense is probably going to only improve if the faces change. 2) Strikeouts. In an era when many hurlers are averaging over a strikeout an inning, the Twins just don't have many guys capable of fanning hitters. This exposes the suspect defense even more. Among the rotation, Hughes and May have strikeout stuff, Nolasco has an OK strikeout history, but Gibson (especially) and Pelfrey just don't get many whiffs. Even the relatively hard throwers in the bullpen, with the exception of Perkins, just don't get strike three. 1) Bullpen. Perkins has been solid. Most of the other guys would be classified as inconsistent. Without big K numbers and a suspect defense behind them, I see the current bullpen yielding many leads and letting some competitive ballgames get away. The hope here is that the Twins promote guys who are doing well in the minors and a couple succeed when promoted.

No he's not a good outfielder, at least he hasn't been up to now. I just don't see Hicks hitting enough to hold down a corner outfield spot.

To expand on my earlier comment--Hicks has been on a good run for about two weeks and his overall numbers are very good. I don't know if he's been fundamentally sound in the field or on the bases. He still is weaker from the left side, but has been serviceable from that side in Rochester. If the Twins need an outfielder and get one from Rochester, he's separated himself from Rosario. Buxton's streak has been for a week, but he's been more than warm, it is multiple hits and extra base hits almost every day. He's got 5 triples already. A first-hand report from a TD poster says that he's outstanding in center field and we all know he has explosive speed (according to Terry Ryan, the fastest man ever in the organization since Ryan was in it). Arcia left today's game with a sore hip, Schafer has been nursing multiple injuries. I suppose either could go on the DL. I expect the Twins would go that route with Schafer rather than DFAing him. If the Twins need an outfielder for fifteen days, do they add Hicks with the possibility that he gets sent down after those 15 days? What would that do to his confidence? The other part of this equation is Buxton. If the OPS goes into the .900s would the Twins promote him to Rochester or maybe skip AAA and go all the way to Target Field?

Did you get wet, Halsey? It's raining felines and canines here in Zumbrota right now, ruining my plans to get 18 in after the Twins game.

A homer (#2) and a double today for Hicks. Certainly, he is doing well. Not certain it will carry over to the majors. However, the "crown prince" is absolutely raking in Chattanooga, so what then?

Don't forget Vargas. Multiple hits in consecutive games and a long homer today.

I don't think Gardenhire was a bad manager. He did seem to get a little stale, yes, but overall he did a good job. The Twins' record has been more a function of the personnel on the team. I think Molitor has superior personnel to what Gardenhire had since 2010 and I expect better performance. I also think Molitor has a far more in-tune pitching coach. That change might net the five victories that Thrylos alluded to. My biggest concern so far with "Molly" his use of pitchers. It was wrong to use Graham so little in April and the Fien injury might have been avoided if Molitor was not trying to use the tender-armed reliever for multiple innings in his second consecutive day on the mound.

I haven't given up on Pelf being a good starter. However, there are factors that say it is unlikely that he is going to be an ace. I don't expect Pelfrey to ever put together two starts as solid as he put up against the Royals and the Tigers. Top end, IMHO, is middle-of-the-rotation. It is worth noting he had and 8-1 GB/FB ratio. If he keeps that up, he's got a chance.

OPS is over .700 (after a 4-hit game), despite "only" two homers. He works counts, gets walks, and is the team's best base runner. If I'm the Twins manager, I bat him leadoff until they find someone better.

Thanks, Sample Size. Great job! Vargas out, Escobar back in left.

Good points. The thing on Plouffe and Dozier is that they moved away from the more demanding position of shortstop to thrive elsewhere, Dozier immediately and Plouffe after a couple seasons. Does Danny need to move to another position or become a Toni Phillips-type utility guy? We shall see.

To answer my friend Jokin, I am not calling for Escobar to take over shortstop yet. Since observing Santana in Spring Training of 2014, I have been concerned about his defense. His performance this spring has borne out my concerns. As everyone has noted, he has the tools to be very good. He has never sustained anything resembling good defense at shortstop. IMHO, 35 errors is too many and if that is the norm for regular shortstop Danny Santana, then they need to look for a better alternative. I think Santana will hit. He has quick hands, excellent speed and some power. He needs to develop some selectivity (zero walks so far), but he provides something positive for the Twins' offense. A team with so few strikeouts and a poor outfield defense can't really afford to carry a bottom quartile shortstop. Since Santana has the tools to be better, the team needs to see if he can develop consistency and focus to take advantage of his fine tools.

I predicted 85 wins this year. That prediction looked pretty ridiculous after seven games, but since the team has played much better. There are obvious flaws, but some solutions may be available in Rochester and Chattanooga. The biggest reason the Twins have lost so many games in the last four years is starting pitching. I am not going to say the problem is fixed, but when was the last time the Twins optioned a starter with a winning record and a mid-4s ERA? The lineup will get better. Not one regular is hitting above career norms. That will change. The bullpen is already transitioning. I question whether Stauffer will ever pitch for the Twins again, Tonkin and Pressly have chances to establish themselves right now and there are still more pitchers that deserve a chance at Rochester. There aren't any easy touches in the American League or the NL Central. The Twins will have to improve as the season rolls along and add impact players from their farm system and perhaps from outside in order to have a winning season. Injuries will probably decide whether this is a successful season, which sets the scene for true contention for the rest of the decade.

Danny Santana committed his seventh and eighth errors on Friday. We all know that errors aren't the best measure of defense, but anyone who makes a lot of errors can't be a good defender. In about 100 games, Eduardo Escobar committed five errors for the entire season at shortstop. Santana can't continue making errors at the rate he committed them this month, obviously. I suspect that if he stays at short, he will make more errors than any Major League shortstop. It takes a lot out-of-zone plays to make up for the plays he should have made. Having a strong arm and good range does not automatically made a player a good defender.

These are the moves I wanted to see. I never wanted Milone in the bullpen. He should stay stretched out and be ready when (not if) another starter gets hurt or is ineffective. Outside of yesterday, Thielbar has been unimpressive. He'll probably get more chances before the season is over.

I continue to like Nuñez over Herrmann, although Herrmann has some value if he can hit between .230 and .250. I certainly want Meyer to stick to starting and not convert him into a reliever until he shows he can't be a starter. I like Oliveros a lot and with your scenario, there are plenty of 40-man spots. I would prefer him in the bully over Milone for sure. While I want Hicks to earn a promotion, he is well on his way to doing so. I don't trust what he has produced, but the numbers are mounting. Rosario is improving at AAA. I want him to get a shot this year, as well.

Another left hander? My, my, my. This is putting in question my assertion that the Twins would face between 40 and 55 lefty starters. It has been almost 50-50 to this point. The Twins have hit better vs. southpaws to this point. In particular, Mauer has been very good vs. same-handed pitchers. I'll be one of the diehards watching the Twins over playoff hockey or make-believe football. Hat tip to Sample Size. Another solid opening.

I guess it is okay to have another arm available for tonight, but there will have to be players sent down or released. With Stauffer on the DL, that rules out one possible DFA. Boyer would be DFAed if the Twins don't want him on the active roster. Thielbar is the obvious candidate, since he hasn't been that effective (until last night) and his option for this year was already used. Could the club (kind of) reverse course and option Milone? I don't like the idea of having a 28-year old soft tosser in the 'pen in long relief.

Graham in for the first time in 11 days. It has been like they have an 11-man staff. I guess I chalk this up to Molitor being a rookie manager. They want to keep the guy, but they have to use him more than seven innings a month.

Regression to the mean. I like the Twins offense more than their defense and pitching, and they have been dreadful at the plate. The Whities' defense also really contributed--beyond the two errors, there was a passed ball, a bobbled cutoff and Eaton got leather on Mauer's drive.

Can't argue. Let's see what a healthy Ricky Nolasco can do. Milone should get another shot, too. He's faced a gauntlet of tough lineups and his pitching was not the disaster it was late last year.

I like something about all of the candidates for demotion. IMHO, it looks like May is on the cusp of being successful, Pelfrey might have found something that works for him and Gibson needs to mix his pitches better to get some swings and misses. Milone hasn't had a real good start since his first one, but has kept the team in the game until Monday's short start. I would prefer the team send Milone down and keep him stretched out. I don't want to see a soft-tossing lefty in the 'pen.

Tonkin was not very good last year and he wasn't very good in spring training. I don't think he deserved a spot in the bullpen, but he has pitched well enough in Rochester and there are gaping holes in the Twins bullpen.

I just posted something about Buxton and Sano. I messed up the math and said Buxton was 6-15, 6-18 was right. I think it is important that he is taking walks and not striking out. It looks like it will be a while before Sano dominates.