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stringer bell

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Everything posted by stringer bell

  1. stringer bell
    Burdi couldn't handle AA last year. Nolasco has been a successful pitcher in the majors and actually threw the ball fairly well in May of last year. If Burdi succeeds and Nolasco struggles, sure make that move, but that move won't be made until some time in the season. As I've said about the position players, it is true of the pitching staff, there are very few sure things for a team with postseason aspirations. May could implode too.
  2. stringer bell
    To a larger point, in 2008 a lot of Republicans deserted their party and voted for Obama. It isn't against the law and at the time a Republican administration had led the country into the worst recession since the 1930s depression. I suspect a lot more Republicans than the hundreds that came out publicly voted for Obama. I started out in the opposite camp that year, liking McCain's maverick persona and respecting his service as a Naval officer and POW. The veering to the right to garner the nomination and the naming of Sarah Palin ended my interest in the Republican. Back to "the Donald". He is clearly an opportunist who says whatever he thinks will sway voters in his party to vote for him. I've listened to a half dozen interviews and he has no depth, no core. Everything he does will be "huge", "the biggest", "the best", based on ????? I can't see him standing up to a debate on issues with a competent Democrat and I can't see him appealing to the entire electorate.
  3. stringer bell
    OK. I found a source that Trump endorsed John McCain in 2008. I found nothing that says that Trump voted for Obama. A year later Trump was at the forefront of the "birther" nonsense. As for the Clinton friendship, Trump has consistently called Hillary Clinton "the worst Secretary of State in history" or words to that effect. http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/09/18/trump-endorses-mccain/
  4. stringer bell
    If Mauer stays healthy and puts up those numbers, he will be quite valuable to the Twins, given the rest of the team's low OBP.
  5. stringer bell
    I've tried to stay out of the Mauer back and forth, but I do believe Mauer has to raise his OBP and OPS to continue as a regular. Honestly, Mauer can help the team as a 1b if he gets on base a lot and hits well from the #2 spot in the order. A powerless .265 isn't good enough, but .285 with a .360 OBP might make him the largest leadoff hitter in history.
  6. stringer bell
    The Hicks-Rosario discussion is interesting since they are such different hitters. Hicks is more patient, but despite being the bigger man, he doesn't drive the ball as often. Rosario is spooky aggressive, but I loved the results last year. One thing to remember Hicks was "rushed" to major leagues at 23 years of age. Rosario made his debut at the same age and he missed a half season of development with a suspension. Eddie did a lot more in his age 23 season than Aaron.
  7. stringer bell
    "arguably"-in this thread a lot of numbers and projections have been thrown out there. FIP makes May's best case, ERA his worst. If you are a slave to one advanced stat or another, then there is no argument. I know this--the Twins have a member of their staff who has always had a lower FIP than his ERA-Ricky Nolasco. He's 33 year old and has logged 1500 innings. It happens that guys don't meet their FIP, it also happens that guys have tendencies that make FIP unreliable for them-BA with RISP is a good example. As was noted earlier, xFIP shows something altogether different. It is no cinch May would be better than Milone or Nolasco for that matter. Without May, the rotation is deep, more qualified starters than spots in the rotation. The bullpen isn't as deep and adding May at the end with Jepsen and Perkins helps a lot. There is still room for another power arm in the 'pen, even if May is sent there.
  8. stringer bell
    OK, going into Spring Training 2015, what were the comments about the AL Central? Detroit had won several Central championships in a row and had two Cys and an ERA champ in their rotation plus Miggy and V-Mart, Cleveland was on the cover of SI and the epitome of a team on the rise, the Whities "won" the off-season with the Shark and a revamped BP and KC was solid coming off a World Series run. The only team that came close to meeting expectations was the Royals. If the Twins are solid, they'll have a decent record, if they regress they'll have a worse record. I think the talent will be moderately improved. If the range for victories was 75-85 last year, the range for next year should be 80 to 90. The team was pretty lucky with injuries and a run of disabled list injuries could make reaching the high end impossible. I wanted Plouffe moved, but with so many uncertainties on a team with playoff aspirations, it makes sense to keep a more sure thing for one position.
  9. stringer bell
    I've liked the move of May to the BP since it happened. He had several outstanding outings in the 'pen and would add another quality arm to the end of the game. I'd still like to see one more quality arm (preferably a lefty) to have four options for the last innings. Choosing the stats puts May somewhere between the top and the bottom of the heap amongst the starters. I am of the opinion that he just another one of the #3-#5 starters, of which the Twins have an excess. In my opinion he translates best to high-leverage duty in the bullpen. The decision can be revisited later if the situation changes. I would submit that one more change in role should be it for Mr. May. I see pretty good value, but pretty big expense for the two veterans (Hughes and Santana) and I see better value due to lower cost for Gibson and Milone. I think Milone is the surest bet of prospective starters and with a projected salary of less than $5M, he would be worth much, much more on the open market. Perhaps someone will give up value to acquire Milone, but if not he belongs in the rotation.
  10. stringer bell
    I did forget about Nolasco in the context of catastrophic injury, although it was only an old injury that came back to bite him, but the basic truth remains that if a guy in the rotation puts up OK numbers, they will probably start every fifth day. Guys lined up as 6-8 will probably get a shot, as well.
  11. stringer bell
    Both Mastro and Benson should be considered organizational depth. If they got a chance with the Twins it would be a Cinderella story, particularly Benson. In my limited contact with both those guys, they seem like good people. I shook both their hands in spring training a few years back. Mastro was pretty nice on what had to be a bad day--the day he was sent to minor league camp and Benson mingled well with the fans looking for autographs
  12. stringer bell
    Depth in the rotation is necessary. If you remember neither Pelf or May made the original starting 5 and one or both of them was in the rotation from beginning to end and the Twins didn't have any catastrophic injuries to their pitchers in 2015. I hope Berrios pitches his way to the Twins before his birthday, but the guys in the #4 and #5 slots can probably be assured they will get their starts if they stay effective.
  13. stringer bell
    In 2014, the team was far better in all the stats that Dave mentioned. They added Hunter and Rosario and a half season of Sano offensively and subtracted really not much and fell to a bottom quartile offense. Santana, Arcia, and Vargas disappointed or outright disappeared. Was 2014 the outlier or was 2015 more accurately what the offense is and is going to be? I think that several guys will get better or would figure to be about the same--only Rosario and Sano have much basis for regressing, so I think the overall offensive output will be improved, but not by much. I really don't want to see much of an outfield that has both Sano and Arcia in it because of how bad the defense would be. The pitching should be better, but that seems to be the ultimate crapshoot as far as projecting who performs well or not.
  14. stringer bell
    Just heading off to work, but here's my concern: "Mix" isn't optimum. Too many low OBP guys, too many RH bats and arms. Way too many "ifs". I don't like the idea of Sano becoming an outfielder and I think banking on Park is another gamble.
  15. stringer bell
    The problem for the Twins is three big contracts to starting pitchers nearing or past 30, where they can be expected to decline (Thank you Captain Obvious). None of those guys is an ace or even close, unless Hughes 2014 can be replicated. After those three guys there are two guys in their late 20s that have had some success (Milone and Gibson). In my book (but not my preference) that is the five starters that start 2016 for the Twins. Duffey and May could both end up in the bullpen, although I think Duffey could and should be in the rotation. We've had discussions on upside in other threads. I believe May, Duffey and Berrios could be better than any of the five more veteran starters. I agree that Berrios is a near lock to start 2016 in upstate New York and I don't think that's a totally bad thing. How do you clear a path for the best arms and still have the needed depth? I expect one starter will be a long man and starter-in-waiting (no Rule V guys to hide) and I think Trevor May has an important late-inning role in the bullpen. My opinion based mostly on observation is that he is no more than marginally better than anyone else in the rotation and can be a real weapon in the 'pen. It's too early to say for sure, but he may be another guy like Nolasco that underperforms vs. his FIP, for whatever reason. Despite the big, strong body I also recall too many starts where he struggled to get through the sixth. May was close to unhittable in several of his relief appearances. Having him be a tag team with an undetermined quality lefty, Jepsen and Perkins could be pretty dynamic.
  16. stringer bell
    I don't mind losing a prospect if the result is a quality reliever. No more bargain basement shopping!
  17. stringer bell
    OK, OK, Trump isn't really a Republican, but he's not a Democrat. I think Michael Che's riff on SNL was spot on. He's saying what a specific constituency wants to hear and combining it with his special brand of bombast. It seems to be working so far, but I doubt it will continue for much longer. I think Ben is right about Congress vs. President to a degree. Congressional elections (especially off year elections) are won by getting the base out and Republicans have done that much better than Democrats as a rule (2006 a notable exception). Presidential candidates always veer as far to the extreme as they can to gather up "the base" for their party and then run towards the middle. I would debate whether moderates get the nomination and whether one has to be a moderate to win. Reagan wasn't a moderate and won two of the biggest margins (electoral vote) of all time. (First against an incumbent, second in terms of margins any time). I said earlier that I thought the Republican would be the favorite to win and I still believe so despite what Vegas might say right now. The fundamentals favor a Republican, as long as he's not too extreme. Right track/wrong track, two terms out of office, low opinion of the current chief executive all point toward a Republican win.
  18. stringer bell
    Gerrymandering isn't the only reason for the Democrats' electoral underachievement, but IMHO it is the biggest one. In 2012, if Democrats had gotten their share of the seats in six or seven gerrymandered states--Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and North Carolina--they would have had a majority in the House. All states were won by Obama in 2008 and all but one carried by the president in 2012. If memory serves, the raw vote for House in every state went to Democrats, but they got a majority delegation in none of those states.
  19. stringer bell
    I agree with the sentiment of this remark, but disagree that "most Democrats don't" worry about who is in Congress. I'm not a party regular, but those that are want all of their candidates to win. The point is the casual or unaffiliated voter that votes Democrat is far less likely to sustain his or her vote in off-year elections. Until Democrats figure out a way to get increased participation from their constituencies that are less committed to vote, they will be underrepresented in Congress and in state legislatures etc. The 2010 election is the gift that keeps on giving for the Republicans--they took a bunch of legislatures and governorships and were able to control redistricting in many blue or purple states. They were able to withstand the presidential election year and solidify their gains in 2014. Citizens United has also given them a competitive advantage and with so many state majorities they've enacted subtle and not so subtle voter suppression laws in many of those purple or light blue states.
  20. stringer bell
    I don't want any of the Republican candidates to win, but currently I think the Republican party candidate is currently the favorite to win the general election in 2016. Rubio or Kasich on the ticket would get Republicans most of the way to an electoral majority and there aren't many states that Romney carried that are in jeopardy of flipping to the Democrats. Yes, if minorities register and vote as reliably as older whites, Republicans chances are going to shrink every year, but a) that kind of participation in younger voters and minorities just has never happened and Republicans have done everything they can to make it difficult for those constituencies to vote and everything they can for them to believe that government is a vast wasteland not worth caring about.
  21. stringer bell
    Ruth Bader Ginsburg is what? 82? She's falling asleep at public events and she has cancer. I don't think she will last four more years as a Supreme Court justice and without being too morbid, may not draw breath for four more years.
  22. stringer bell
    I'm "meh" about Beresford. He is pretty slick fielding, runs well, but he is a single position player with very little power. I seem to have a special hatred for hitters who can't score a runner from second on a single because the outfield plays shallow and I expect that would be the case with the Aussie middle infielder. I actually saw him hit an exhibition game homer in Spring Training, but he doesn't hit with power.
  23. stringer bell
    ???? Really? Adding a high-quality player or two before Sano, Buxton, and Rosario were ready would make no sense to me.
  24. stringer bell
    Certainly, spring training will help the Twins decide what they have in Park. We can't be sure of his readiness, or Buxton's or a bunch of other guys. In addition, injuries happen. The chances of one of the four--Mauer, Plouffe, Sano, and Park--gets hurt somewhere along the way is pretty high.
  25. stringer bell
    I saw a lot of resistance to trading prospects for a good player (in this case lefty reliever), but isn't it true that the Twins have enough prospects in the minors and young players in the majors that they are going to lose several of them anyway? For example, especially if the Twins add a veteran OF, I really don't see a way for Walker to get a chance. Already, we have Arcia and Santana out of options slated to either be bench players or lost for nothing. Vargas has about a year worth of experience, but is really blocked from any chance to play full-time, and there are about eight guys that look like capable starting pitchers vying for five spots. IMHO, it is time to add quality for quantity. Yes, somebody might be lost who will turn out to be a good player, but the Twins need to add high-end talent, particularly on the mound.
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