stringer bell

Much appreciated summary Tom. I think Gibson has had an overall better season than Berrios. His K totals seem to have fallen a bit late in the season, but he still got to the 8th inning today. Gibson is at 190 IP, and is still competitive on the mound.

Astudillo with three more hits last night. Good for him. To play the contrarian a bit, I do want to examine his previous call-up and the angst about Bobby Wilson supplanting better options for backup catcher. Astudillo hadn't been catching in AAA when he was called up. I don't know the exact situation, but the usual for minor league teams is short benches. Since Willians was the one catcher with versatility, perhaps he was forced to play other positions because of no other options, plus I am guessing the AAA manager wanted to see what they had in the signees to the Twins organization, knowing what they have in Willians. The Twins called Astudillo up as a third catcher, with position players nicked everywhere except catcher. Astudillo played other positions, including center field, because no one else was available. Third catchers don't catch much and second catchers don't play all over the field. That is true for every manager I've seen operate in the modern era (one with 12 and 13 man pitching staffs). Why play Bobby Wilson? Well, guys like him are comfortable for pitchers to pitch to (there are a bunch of them around the league and the best example is Drew Butera). The Twins at least pretended they cared about winning in Astudillo's first stint on the major league team and they didn't want to supplant a well-respected defender and put games in the hands of a guy with zero big-league experience who had been let go by three franchises. There's an argument to be made, although I don't buy all of it. In his second stint with the Twins, Willians has exclusively caught (IIRC) with perhaps a DH assignment or two. My non-professional eyes are convinced his receiving skills pass muster and his hitting is intriguing. I would hope that he learns to stay in the zone with his swings and draws an occasional walk, but the contact rate is special and shouldn't be ignored and he can reach the seats.

Mod note: I've hidden some posts and don't want this to descend into personal attacks and name-calling. Keep it civil.

I'll scattergun here a bit--yes drop some dead wood on the 40-man! Granite,Petit, Duffey, Slegers, perhaps Curtiss or Busenitz, although I like the latter two's live arms. I like Meija, and think he definitely should be kept. Berrios is now an "All-Star" to me. I think it was borderline that he was named in the first place, and he's been lackluster most of the second half. That said, he's young and could become dominant. Sure, extend him, but don't expect an ace, at least not yet. Add a 1-3 starter, absolutely, and that will cost either money or talent. Corner infield depth--absolutely. I personally think Austin is a better hitter than what Sano has become and I don't know what happened to the guy who came up in mid-2015 (or the first third of 2017). There should be all kinds of doubts about Sano's durability as well as his ability after this year. We've seen more than glimpses, but less than sustained excellence. As for Buxton, how about a decent guaranteed contract (maybe two years) with performance bonuses that are good rewards for staying on the field. Again a half season (second half of '17) showed that he can do it.

The news digest I read shows stories from all sides. Today’s Kavanaugh topic was wall to wall smears of the accuser from conservative sites. Add in the quotes from Senators indicating they will only interview (cross examine) the accuser with no corroborating witnesses or experts in the field. The GOP is going to ram Kavanaugh through no matter what and they have the support of conservative media. I still question Feinstein’s motives in waiting to send the letter to the FBI, but this whole thing has been a rigged game from the beginning.

I do see it as “he said, she said” at this point. If Kavanaugh stays steadfast in his denial and no other complaint comes out, I doubt anything changes. There are four or possibly five possible “no” votes on Kavanaugh among the Republicans. Does Ford’s testimony change any of those votes? If I were betting today I’d say no.

The Twins have ridden the roller coaster during the Paul Molitor era. Up in 2015, way down in 2016, a peek at the playoffs in 2017 and now way down in 2018. The roller coaster claimed a front-office victim in longtime GM Terry Ryan two years ago and now there has to be some heat on field manager Molitor after this season's extreme disappointment. The complaints about the old regime included being too "old school", including pitch-to-contact staffs, not using advanced metrics, cookie cutter approaches to hitting, and of course, not spending enough to bring in and keep talent. Fair complaints all, I think. However, in the Levine/Falvey era, we see little real progress and a real lack of talent in the upper minors. This year's crop of September call-ups is among the most uninspiring in recent memory. I believe there are two keys to being competitive and sustaining that competitiveness for a number of years. The first is pitching. Levine and Falvey are supposed to be pitching guys. They have acquired pitching, but with mixed results at best. Their best talent at the top levels of the farm system doesn't have many, if any, outstanding talents. Addison Reed, Zach Duke, Lance Lynn, Jake Odorizzi didn't move the needle much for the big club this year. Perhaps they have suffered from some bad luck and just need to add quality until it sticks and stays. All I can say is this, the Twins rank in the bottom third of almost every meaningful pitching stat. You don't win year after year with far below average pitching. The other component which is missing in my opinion is defense. For the last two years, the Twins have gone with a primary shortstop who is well below average defensively, couple that with a revolving door in center field this year, the trading of the regular second baseman and the season-ending injury to primary catcher Jason Castro, and you have a toxic mess turning outs into outs. Further, and if there is one complaint about Molitor that sticks, it is this. The team has been woeful at executing fundamental baseball. I'm talking about throwing to the proper base, making needless throws, failing to hit cutoff men and the like. Add in that opposing baserunners are taking extra bases like free gifts and this is tough to watch. I think the front office needs to commit to pitching and defense in a big way this offseason. That would include making every effort to keep their most gifted defender (Byron Buxton) in Minnesota and on the field as much as possible. Secondly, I think the Twins need a defensive-minded shortstop, with the idea that Jorge Polanco can move to what I think is his natural position, second base. On the pitching front, more and better arms to augment the so-so rotation (I think Gibson/Berrios/Odorizzi is fine for #2-4) and a questionable bullpen. I like May/Hildenberger/Rogers, but more is needed included a closer. The Twins have been in the baseball wilderness long enough. They need to have a solid plan for improvement, stick with it and stay relevant not for an occasional year, but consistently. I think the long suffering fan base deserves it.

With all of the disappointments Gopher football has presented in the past half century, I'll put the over/under at 7 and be satisfied with a minor bowl. OTOH, the homer in me wants 9 wins and a pig and ax in the trophy case.

Astudillo has an interesting skill set. Extreme contact, average power, and he seems to be an adequate defensive catcher, taking into accounts all aspects of the position. I do note that he hasn't hit for this kind of power in the minors until this year. Also, he's always played all over the field. BBRef says that he belonged to the Phillies, Braves and Diamondbacks and they all released him. Certainly, he's someone to keep around this off-season, with a floor of being a third catcher who could bounce between Triple A and the majors and an undetermined ceiling.

Aren’t the high walks the expected downside for getting away from pitch-to-contact and having a staff full of “strikethrowers”? Another thing is that “putaway pitch”. Without it, long counts and eventually walks. Certainly, this is the case for Gonsalves. Some of the others have had the same phenomenon, probably Odorizzi more than anyone else.

As noted in the Minor League section, Busenitz was very good in Rochester this year. He has been poor with the big club. Last year, he was pretty good with the Twins.

Looking through Odorizzi's stats at this point in the season, he is pretty much the same pitcher he's always been. Too many pitches, too many short starts, but satisfactory numbers for a guy in the back of the rotation. His walks and strikeouts are up, his hits per IP are down, but there are no dramatic changes. A contending team can send him out every five days, but they need to have three or four better guys, especially if the team wants to have "only" a seven-man bullpen.

I've always been a Rogers fan, and as noted above he's taken a real step forward this year. I would also note that the velocity is up considerably on the fastball, which seems to make the rest of his stuff even better. Reed will be back. I hope whatever is wrong is fixed, either with rest or surgery. He seemed like an excellent signing and looked good early, but for most of the season he has been brutal.

I want Kepler in the conversation at first. It seems his weakest tool as an outfielder is his arm, which would be minimized at first. He's tall, surehanded and a lefty, with some experience in the minors. It would give Jake Cave more playing time and putt together a pretty formidable lineup against RH pitching.

Cave has been a positive surprise. I think fourth outfielder would be his floor for the start of 2019. If the Twins would consider Kepler as part of the plan for first base next season (I think they should), then Cave would have plenty of at-bats even if Buxton does reclaim center field (I think he will).

About a month ago I began pounding the drum for this combined with signing Iglesias. Polanco is a good-hitting middle infielder, but having him stretched at short isn't the best solution.

Regarding Kavanaugh, I think that Democrats have raised enough valid points that that a middle-of-the-road voter would respect a "no" vote on his appointment. The Democrats up for election in states Trump won in '16 probably now have enough cover to vote against him and keep their lefty bona fides. However, I don't think any of the 51 Republicans have changed their vote. He'll be approved either 51-50 or 51-49. I don't wish for someone death or poor health, but if one of the five conservative justices resigns or dies after the 2020 election, there is a chance for a 5-4 liberal court at that time. 2+ years of mind-jarring 5-4 verdicts are on the horizon in the near future.

The Electoral College probably is a scapegoat for the Trump victory. To the Donald's credit, he broke through the "blue wall" that carried Obama to certain victory and he has changed the math to win a national election. Just like the US Senate, the EC gives disproportionate sway to small-population states and in a national election, it gives too much power to the so-called swing states. I think some tweaking for some type of proportional vote makes sense, but the devil is in the details. Does it mean you have to get an absolute majority to get all the electoral votes? 60%, a certain plurality? The simplest proposal I heard was to give votes by Congressional District and then have the extra two electoral votes rewarded to the winner of the state overall, but I still believe that would have resulted in a Trump presidency and maybe even a Romney administration. Bush-Gore was essentially a dead heat decided by the vote in the swing state with the largest population, so I guess that happens. Trump getting 3 million less votes and winning comfortably is close to defying probability.

Gerrymandering is wrong no matter who does it. As things have developed in the 21st Century, it is much tougher to gerrymander for Democrats because their voting constituency tends to be in areas of dense population. The thing about gerrymandering is that too many seats are "safe", which give rise to extreme right and left-wingers with no fear of being ousted for questionable behavior or votes. Minnesota is a good example of how maps should be drawn on a Congressional level. Though the state votes blue for most statewide and national races, there are only two safe Democratic seats (4 & 5) and one safe Republican seat (6), 7 and 1 lean red, but have been represented by Democrats for a decade, 8 leaned blue, but has become swingy and 2 and 3 have been in Republican hands, but are moving towards the Democrats. This year, probably four are locked up (4, 5, 6, 7) and four are tossups. If every state had half their races in the tossup category, we'd have a better referendum on our national government.

I like Hawkins, Cuddyer, Morneau, and Smalley in that order. I heard enough from Hunter in one series. On the other topic, yes make Polanco a second baseman and sign a shortstop. Iglesias now of the Tigers would be a good fit.

Thanks Sample Size! Tough to get excited today after yesterday's debacle.

I heard a couple innings of the game on the radio and didn't see a single pitch. By all accounts, it was a dreadful performance not worthy of a Major League baseball team. It has already been a long and disappointing season, so fans are primed to be angry and vent at the manager, players and front office. That said, and alluding to a post above, it is only one game with a confluence of factors that led to the dreadful result. First of all, this was a meaningless game between two teams long out of the playoff chase. Secondly, a day game in the hot Texas sun with a series against Houston starting this afternoon with the contending Astros meant giving days off to the struggling Sano and to Mauer. Add in that Field and Gimenez likely wouldn't see the field in Houston, Molitor started those guys.Yeah, Gimenez at first base is poor, but if he's not going to play Austin, Mauer, and Sano, and Ehire is at third... I don't know why Austin was out, but whatever. So, a lousy lineup with not much punch. Again, Littel was called up to pitch and the Twins have been itching to try the "opener", so why not? I guess it didn't go well--Moya gave up a bomb--Littel got through four innings but got knocked out in the sixth. Try out Duffey in the sixth and not good, game out of hand. With both Gibson and particularly Berrios struggling, the next month won't be pretty. The Twins' team ERA will probably end up close to last after being in the middle third for most of the season. Now about the call-ups and non-call-up. The Twins won't admit it, but Buxton's non-recall is about service time. There have been several threads about it, and honestly from what I've seen most of the Twins Daily constituency is in favor of him not returning until 2019. That the Twins didn't recall higher upside pitchers is probably a sad commentary on what is available in the upper minors. Gonsalves, Stewart, and now Littel are recalled and none of them has produced anything to be optimistic about. I guess Curtiss is heading to Houston after Rochester finishes their season, and maybe a couple of those arms in the Rochester bullpen might also come along, but I don't think any of them are better or better prospect than Moya and Busenitz, who are here now after most of the season in Rochester. I don't blame the Twins for not promoting an iffy MLB prospect not on the 40-man, even though there is plenty of dreck on their roster. The kind of outcome that occurred yesterday was put in motion when the Twins sold on the trade deadline. They will lose more games because of that and there aren't any worthwhile prospects available to get their feet wet in September. It makes for poor baseball this month, sad to say.

I took a quick look at Sanó’s numbers since his recall. I don’t believe there is much that indicates he is “fixed” as a hitter. He does look trimmer and is running better, but for every nice play he makes in the field, I see him not making a play that can/should be made. Does someone see something I’m not seeing?

Each of the situations Brian referred to is in most respects separate from the others. To me, the biggest head-scratcher was trying to convert Sanó, especially since the guy they were keeping was Plouffe, who profiles as merely average through his career. Nishi was also a disaster. I want Polanco to be the long term answer at second base. I think he’ll always be stretched at short. Sign someone like Iglesias to a 2-3 year deal and move Polanco permanently. When Lewis is ready they can make room for him.

Not a total defense of the Twins, but when Astudillo was recalled the first time, he was the the third catcher, but the first backup almost everywhere else. Perhaps he was being groomed for utility everywhere at Rochester.