stringer bell

Cave has had a pretty good run since being recalled. I really don't think he has a place on the 2023 Twins, but some team could pick him up as a fourth outfielder.

Martin's star has dimmed for sure this season, but he could come back with a good performance in the AFL and a good start in 2023. There was a reason why he was considered a top prospect and good performance could bring back the luster. As far as being an outfielder, Martin played almost as much outfield as he did infield in 2021 (IIRC) and he has played some in the OF this year as well. He's not a stranger to the outfield as Gordon was last year.

I don’t assume Arraez will be the principal first baseman next year. Miranda and Kirilloff would be preferred options to Arraez at first and I maintain Arraez is quite satisfactory at second.

I don’t know how big of an upgrade he might be. He does seem to offer more speed and base running. His numbers don’t show it, but his skill set would seem to also indicate more OBP skills.

Some time after the All-Star break, I was pondering how the Twins could fit all of their quality major league position players on the active roster. A few weeks later, baseball immortals Mark Contreras and Caleb Hamilton were on the big club. Fast forward to a crucial five-game series in Cleveland and the Twins were starting Bailey Ober, Josh Winder (both coming off injuries) and having Louie Varland make his second major league start and Jake Cave and Gilberto Celestino were considered regular starters. The season unraveled quickly and now the Twins look likely to finish below .500 and in third place in the weak AL Central. How did it happen? I have several answers--there have been enduring issues all year exacerbated by a rash of injuries, most of them season-ending. Offense underperformed almost all year. Going back to the start of the season, after a rocky first couple of weeks, the Twins offense was sufficient to win a lot of game despite never scoring runs commensurate with their underlying numbers. Right now, the Twins are 18th in runs scored despite being 11th in OPS and 12th in homers. They have often been futile with runners in scoring position and they have been a terrible running bases as a team. I have seen many posters state that the team is terrible at fundamentals. I would submit that all teams draw their fans ire for not advancing runners and "beating the shift". Part of these problems is the way the Twins are built. They lack team speed and their is a lot of swing and miss in their collective game. With the changes made to limit homers, the Twins (IMHO) have suffered disproportionately. Pitching regressed after overperforming early. The Twins seized first place in late April and held on to the top spot for most of the season bolstered by a pitching staff that performed better than expected. Despite seemingly having at least one and usually two or more guys in their rotation that were locks to go no more than five innings, they won a lot of games and obvious weaknesses at the back end of the bullpen were not evident in the win-loss record. Things unraveled here in slow motion. The failure of anyone but Jhoan Duran in late innings cost games (particularly to Cleveland). The extra innings assigned to the bullpen showed the lack of depth that so many short starts demanded. Back to statistics--the Twins currently are right in the middle of total runs allowed stats. Underlying stats (WHIP, Opponents BA and OPS and BB and K numbers) come out slightly below the mean. I think team defense has been slightly better than average, which has helped keep runs allowed acceptable. Injuries (oh my!). The Twins lead the AL in total man-games on the Injured List. They went into the season with one player slated to miss time, so it isn't like there were a bunch of players already on the IL. Some of the injuries could be expected and put on the front office. The Twins obtained several pitchers with injury issues and this season have come up snake eyes with most of them missing significant time. There have been plenty of position player injuries as well. Regular players Ryan Jeffers, Miguel Sano, Jorge Polanco, Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach, Byron Buxton and Max Kepler have all missed significant portions of the season. Carlos Correa also missed over 20 games with COVID and a badly bruised finger. We all know Buxton hasn't made it through a season without spending time on the IL. The other guys would figure to be healthier than they have this year. Dick Bremer characterized the Twins as developing a "slow leak" from June through August. The leak has been accelerated in the month of September and injuries are a factor in that. That said, even without the injuries, the Twins' flaws probably were too big to win the division. The club exhausted their depth and seeing Jermaine Palacios, Mark Contreras, Caleb Hamilton, Sandy Leon, Aaron Sanchez, and (second half) Devin Smeltzer "perform" in key situations just shows that the Twins have scraped bottom. I think some roster turnover is necessary. Among the position players, they need more guys who make contact, are better base runners and who have more speed. They need more left-right balance in corner outfielders. The front office needs to adjust their focus and bring in more durable players. It should be noted that the position players they brought in (Urshela, Sanchez and Correa) have been basically healthy. The problem has been with the pitchers. I think there is too much talent to tear it down. If the club fails to compete next year, it is probably time to try something else, starting at the top. It won't be easy to win the Central next year, but there needs to be significant progress and better health.

I think Martin’s skill set gives him a path to the major leagues. He has good speed, positional flexibility and on-base skills. With all the left handed outfielders the Twins have, there’s a pretty big void in right handed corners who could fill center field. I don’t know if he’ll be considered as a shortstop, but that he can help in the infield is a bonus. He’ll play next season at 24 years old and the Twins can hope for huge steps forward starting with his time in the AFL.

I think there’s a real possibility that Smeltzer will be looking for work this offseason. Unless there is a medical explanation, he has fallen off dramatically and doesn’t look like he will get another chance with the Twins. If hard feelings exist, it is likely Smeltzer will elect to be a free agent if he is designated for assignment.

Does Woods-Richardson have to be added to the 40-man roster this winter? If so, sure, bring him up for a start against Chicago. If not, I guess his debut will have to wait until 2023. He is finishing the season strong and healthy with the Saints. A reason for optimism in 2023 and beyond.

Noting the rehabbing major league players—Larnach is done for the year with a wrist injury and Polanco most likely also done due to his lingering knee injury. Along with the continuing hamstring issues for Arraez, it appears second base will continue to be manned by Gordon and Palacios for the remainder of the Twins season.

I have a lot of thoughts about Buxton. I don't think they fit in categories very well. First, what I want to see (and hope is possible) is 120+ games of 2021 Byron Buxton. He won games with his glove, arm, legs and bat. He was a force on the base paths, even though he wasn't among the league SB leaders, he was elite in center field and he had an OPS over 1.000 with a batting average above .300. Buxton put up a higher WAR than this year in about 40 fewer games. Secondly, my observation beginning in April of 2022 was that Buxton wasn't fully healthy beginning with the ill-fated slide in Boston on the first road trip. I am not sure that the proper path was to try to manage the injury from that point, but it was the course chosen by the Twins. In the end, it didn't work. In the end, using Buxton with frequent days off got him into more games, but made him less valuable. Thirdly, my hope for Buxton's future is that none of the injuries he has suffered will limit him going forward. The knee will be scoped and I would expect that he can get back close to 100% from that. I am not as sure about the hip injury. If he can rehab from that to some semblance of what he has been, he should be good to go in 2023 and his contract may yet be a bargain. Every season that Buxton is dogged by injury is another piece of reality that he will never be the superstar that he might have been. By all appearances, he works hard and does all that he can to get and stay on the field. He just hasn't been able to hold it together and sadly, may never get to play a full season with good health.

The MRIs done on Mahle's shoulder have revealed no significant issues. I don't know if that is "bordering on toast". I also don't think Gray will be traded nor will he request a trade. Taking a quote or two from him at his worst moment doesn't mean that there are irreconcilable differences. Look, there have been multiple injuries seemingly leaving a shell of the team by September the last four years. I think Rocco and the front office have to look at this and at least make revisions in how they are using their pitchers, if not change their plan. I do think there is enough major league talent to contend and I don't want every over-30 player traded or released. They need to figure out a way to have pitchers and position players more healthy in the stretch run. It may be that a team with a centerpiece of Byron Buxton will always be too fragile to compete.

No. Can't agree with that. All three are currently on the Injured List and their trade value is at a low point, with the possible exception of Gray. I would say the value of Berrios and Rogers was pretty high when they were dealt.

I certainly think the Twins will be only the third pick for 2023, but with much better health and some good acquisitions, they can compete.

I thought at the beginning of the season there was a legitimate chance that all three would be helping the major league club. Martin's OBP skills and stolen base ability could be very helpful to the Twins as soon as next year despite his struggles this year. With Buxton's injury issues, and so many left handed corner OFs, it would figure that Martin could get lots of playing time in the outfield. Balazovic has pitched much better his last couple of starts and the ability is there. I would hope that next April he will be going 6-7 innings regularly for the Saints and be in a Twins uniform prior to the All-Star break. I guess we'll have to wait and see on Canterino. While I won't criticize anyone for trying to avoid surgery, it seems the Twins have gambled and lost too often in the last couple years.

Lots of questions, very few certainties. As by noted above, the Twins will have money to spend. Gary Sánchez is a free agent and Correa can opt out , which would create two holes. The return of injured players would give the Twins needed depth and the chance for one or more of them to become fixtures in their lineup. I would advocate picking up a good starter plus a reliever and they seem to be lacking left handers.

The odds are long for the Twins. They really need to win at least four of the five games and given their current roster, it is an extremely long shot. Because they are playing the teams ahead of them in the standings, they control their own destiny, but they must dominate two teams they have had trouble beating in the second half of the season.

I think Bundy averages over five innings per start, which is par for the course for a 4-5th starter. I think he is the type to be managed as Rocco did last night--hard contact equals short leash. Given the dire situation, managing the bullpen as it was last night looks like the right call. They had to win the game and went with their best options (and it worked). Now they'll go into Cleveland with most everyone available except maybe Duran. The fact is that if they succeed in Cleveland (win 4 or 5 games), the less trusted bullpen options (Pagan, Moran, Megill, Sanchez) will have to come through. I wouldn't take that bet, but that is what they are up against.

Injuries, injuries, injuries! It was obvious to me that Larnach wasn't right when he came back from his first stint on the IL and the results panned that out. The Larnach we saw before he was injured is at least a solid MLB player and perhaps much more. There is swing and miss in his game and there will be slumps, but there is excellent power and good defense. He takes his walks, as well. To the original question, it is really tough to count on any player who isn't established (Larnach, Kirilloff, Lewis) and coming off injury. My thought is that there needs to be enough depth if one or even two guys fail due to injury or ineffectiveness that there is someone to replace them. Having Gordon produce and stay healthy this year provides much of the desired depth. Arraez, Miranda, Kirilloff, Gordon, Lewis and Larnach provide a lot of positional flexibility. I also have not been swayed by Celestino. He's a competent center fielder, but his offense and base running aren't major league quality. With Buxton's injury history, he needs to stay on the roster, but I don't think he should be guaranteed a major league job next spring.

Two big comeback wins for the Twins’ Class A affiliates in their playoffs. Cavaco is still intriguing despite struggling for the Mussels. Also good to see Jordy Blaze doing better for the Saints.

The team never had a run-scoring streak commensurate with the offensive talent they have/had. They have been among the least efficient teams producing runs all year. Top that off with terrible base running and you have an underachieving offense and that was supposed to be the strength of the team.

There isn’t enough left to win enough games.

Manfredball will be in full swing in 2023. No more shifts, a pitch clock and bigger bases. The Twins will need to adjust to the changes and they will probably have to adjust more than most. The larger bases will make infield hits and stolen bases more common. The Twins will need to find a way to get more speed in their lineup and to be better base runners. They have been dreadful running the bases and have yielded oodles of stolen bases and that is not all on their catchers. At the very least, adding players with plus speed will be needed and a renewed emphasis on elements of "small ball" will have to be done. I am looking to 2023 because I believe the 2022 season is basically over. A large number of the Twins' top position players aren't playing (Buxton, Polanco, Kepler) and many viewed as emerging (Jeffers, Kirilloff, Larnach) aren't playing either. Carlos Correa has been an offensive disapointment. Add in that Max Kepler and Gary Sanchez have been playing at replacement player level and it is a near miracle that the Twins are still in a pennant race. They've had plenty of help from Cleveland and Chicago, but it appears to me that it will be a surprise if the Twins finish higher than third in the weak Central Division. I think there will be enough talent for the Twins to contend in 2023. A bullpen that includes Jhoan Duran, Jorge Lopez, Caleb Thielbar and Griffin Jax will be a far cry better than the bully that began the season in 2022. Add in prospective starters Joe Ryan, Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda, Tyler Mahle and later Chris Paddack with guys like Louis Varland, Simeon Woods-Richardson, Josh Winder and Bailey Ober ready to step in, perhaps there wouldn't be as many short starts and so much pressure on the bullpen. There is position player talent as well. Jose Miranda has shown himself to be a major league hitter with perhaps a ceiling of star, Nick Gordon has developed into a competent major leaguer with positional versatility. Jeffers, Larnach and Kirilloff showed glimpses of what they could be before they were sidelined by injuries. Byron Buxton played most of the season on one leg and yet was valuable. If only he could get his health right for a season, the Twins become a different team. If Correa comes back, he is a fine ballplayer at a crucial position. If not, the Twins have sufficient funds to upgrade the team (pitching staff or position plauers). It is obvious that there will be more injuries, hopefully not as much as 2022, and also that some players will no longer be Twins in the coming year. Circling back to the mark that Commissioner Manfred has made on baseball, with a new Collective Bargaining Agreement in place, MLB is now going to recognize minor leaguers as a union. My fervent hope is that minor league players will get upgraded treatment in future years. Time will tell on that.

The cost in prospects was for Mahle to help make the playoffs in ‘22 and help the team win in ‘23. If Mahle is successful in 2023, he may not provide the value that the prospects will eventually produce, but then again he might get them into the playoffs, so I do say the jury is still out. Spencer Steer might have a fine career or he might parallel Josmil Pinto or Willians Astudillo.

Okay, maybe there's fault to find here. The problem has been injuries for all of the guys named. Medical staff might be on the hook for okaying guys with arm issues and the brain trust could be catch flack for gambling on the health of guys with injuries. Beyond that guys like Fulmer and Lopez haven't been as effective after being acquired. Falvey and Levine could be faulted for acquiring these guys during breakthrough seasons and then have them regress to the mean. Lopez and Mahle will be back next year and could recoup the value received. I won't dispute that the trades haven't panned out as of yet, but I think the jury is still out.

Larnach and Jeffers can come back yet this year. It is procedural to put those guys on the 60-day list. The return time has been pushed back and there are no guarantees they won’t be pushed back farther.