stringer bell

Great throw by Willi. That saved a run.

Correa is now at .306. which would be seventh in MLB.

So far, Arráez has fared much better as a Padre. I don't have the splits handy, but so far home park hasn't mattered. The lower walk rate this year is something that might indicate that he might not be able to maintain and sustain his high batting average and above-average OPS.

Miranda was the rally killer. Puny single.

Tough choices for the local team. Yesterday was one of those days where it could have been raining almost at any time, but there were times when it wasn't raining. Today isn't going to be a beautiful day by any means but there are less times when it will be raining. The A's only come to town once (that's the way it is for everyone outside the AL Central). If they don't make up the game today, it would be the hassle of finding mutual off days and would mean the A's would have to travel to MN for one day. Just no good answers.

When he's been on the field, Royce has been everything you could ask for and more. I think it is more than fair to petition the baseball gods to grant him a decade of relative good health so that Twins fans and the rest of the country can enjoy not only his play, but his charisma and love of the game.

Luis Arráez is the favorite to win his third consecutive batting championship in the 2024 season. To my knowledge, he would be the first to win three batting championships for three different teams. He is, far and away, the best contact hitter in the game at this time, posting a tiny 5.7% K rate. For these reasons alone, Arráez should be considered a unique player--a unicorn. After the Twins were rained out yesterday, I checked some baseball pages and noted that Arraez has moved close to the top in batting average after being below .300 for the Marlins early this year. I also noted a WAR of 1.1 and I looked down the list of batting qualifiers to find someone with the same (or lower) number. The answer was Josh Smith, who is hitting .294 in about 70 fewer plate appearances. I'll comment here that I'm not a huge fan of WAR, but it is a way to sort overall value among position players. Next, I checked another "overall stat" and found that Arráez currently ranks 66th in MLB with a .745 mark. The .745 posted by Arráez is significantly lower than he put up in each of his two batting championship years. Why would Arráez' OPS number be down over 100 points and why would his WAR project to about 2.4 for a full season? I thought I had a couple answers and decided to check some other stats for this one-of-a-kind player. First, Arraez isn't a slugger. He has only one home run along with thirteen doubles and a triple. His iso power number will never be that high, but so far this season, it is a career low. It stands at .061 while major league average is .166. Luis' lifetime iso power number is .096. Secondly, and probably most telling is that his walk rate is low this year--3.8%, less than half of his lifetime mark of 7.4% and far below the major league average of 8.5%. If a guy has limited power and isn't a base running threat, why nibble? Finally, Arraez leads the National League in GDPs, which projects to the high 20s over a full season. Arraez' career exit velocity numbers have always been pedestrian but this year's 85.8 MPH number is also the lowest in his career. Arráez has been moved, more or less permanently to first base and DH by the Padres. He and Jake Cronenworth switched positions a couple weeks ago. His value as an alleged 5'10" first baseman is capped by his size (IMHO). As a base runner, Luis isn't gifted with good speed, but as often as he gets on base, he should be a pretty smart base runner. There aren't many players like Luis Arráez. He's a good day away from assuming the MLB lead in average, but he has to be head and shoulders above average in hitting because of factors like power, speed, and defensive ability and he is an above average player. I think the league has figured him out to some extent--throw him strikes and live with a lot of singles. IMHO, Arráez is the finishing touch, putting him on top of a good lineup will yield a lot of runs scored, but he isn't the kind of guy that can change a so-so team into a champion. Tony Gwynn and Rod Carew won a lot of batting championships and Arráez might join them by the time he is through, but he does have to hit like that to be an asset to his team.

I'm not sure how good a fielder Royce Lewis is, but I'm sure that fielding percentage in 61 innings isn't an accurate measure of someone's capabilities.

Max Kepler had the walk-off hit last night, the tenth of his career. One more walk-off and he will tie co-leaders (and team icons) Kirby Puckett and Harmon Killebrew. He also became the all-time home run hitter at Target Field with his 81st long ball at the Twins' current home park. He's 31 years old and often described as one of the most athletic players on the team, regarded as a really good fielder. Add in that Kepler has better platoon splits against left handed pitching than right handed pitching, one would think that Max would be in the lineup every day. Yet, he hasn't started against a left handed pitcher in over a month. and only has started against a left hander twice all season. I do want to point out that Kepler never gets pinch hit for, unlike any of the other left handed hitters on the Twins' roster. I am looking for reasons why Kepler hasn't started against lefties. Could this be Baldelli's way of giving Kep sufficient rest? Does the manager think that the right handed alternatives are better choices against lefties? I truly don't know. It is true that Manny Margot has been hitting better of late, but Margot isn't the player that Kepler is and has been. If someone has an explanation, please weigh in.

Ehire Adrianza was DFA'd by the Angels. I wonder if this is the end of his big league career. He'll be 35 later this year, and hasn't hit much in some time. A prototypical utility player, who was never a regular, he has reached 10 years in major league service. If he is done, he made the most of his abilities. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/06/angels-place-adam-cimber-on-15-day-il-select-jose-marte-release-ehire-adrianza.html

How many times has Kepler been pinch-hit for this year? I haven't watched every game, but I don't remember any. Kepler hasn't started against left handers much at all, but he isn't lifted for a pinch hitter much if at all.

I didn't mention veterans trending down and I'm glad I didn't mention Max Kepler. 🙃 Veteran pitcher Caleb Thielbar has had a very rough go so far. I don't know how far the leash extends. Okert has been up and down, but lately has pitched better.

We'll undo all that when we win series against Baltimore, New York and Cleveland in the playoffs!! (Clueless optimism)

The rule of thumb is that you don't go offense for defense (pinch hitters) in a tie game. I presume also that Lewis was told he was off and wouldn't be used except in an emergency. BTW, Rocco used pinch hitters for platoon advantage, so maybe it was all about given Lewis a total rest day.

I’ve kind of dreaded each SWR start fearing he would turn into a pumpkin. Today, I’ll go with cautious optimism and expect a decent start. He’s the best guy in the rotation at limiting homers (so far) and the A’s are going with a homer-dependent offense at this time.

It appears to me that Correa would slot in as the fourth best shortstop in the AL, behind Witt Jr. , Hendrickson and Seager. Jeffers, similarly, would be behind Rutschman, Perez and probably Raleigh. A lot of pitchers are having great starts to their season, but Ryan has been very good.

Totally agree. I have pretty much agreed with Baldelli's choices in general as far as starting lineups, although it is tough for a young left handed hitter to "grow" if he's always lifted for a pinch hitter any time a lefty reliever is on the mound. Three younger guys who were routinely platooned (Wallner, Julien and Kirilloff) are now wearing Saints jerseys. I don't know if strict platooning hurt them, but it didn't seem to help.

Encouraging: Buxton 3-3 with a walk. Two of his hits to the middle of the diamond. Lewis--two hits. Buxton, Lewis and Correa all in the lineup. Joe Ryan had another very good outing. The Twins play the A's seven times in ten days, they need to win six of seven.

Correa needs five PAs tomorrow to qualify.

He will be out of options if he stays in St. Paul for a certain period of time (20 days?). If someone goes on the Injured List in the next three weeks and they decide AK should be recalled, the option will not be utilized.

Good players will play and be regulars as Carlos Correa, a healthy Buxton and Royce Lewis demonstrate. Maximizing the talents of of lesser players is what teams and their managers aspire to do. Casey Stengel platooned at several positions and won world championships for the New York Yankees. Tom Kelly also used players in platoons. The Twins and probably 20 other teams are trying to build winning teams with some great players and some less than great players who fill roles. The one thing that Baldelli does that old style managers really didn't do is pinch hit early in games. I guess the analytics say that you take the chance and make the move early. I hope the team develops more everyday players. Maybe Emmanuel Rodriguez and Walker Jenkins could be two candidates and they both hit left handed.

Martín gets an immediate start in left field. I guess my biggest question was how Martin would be utilized and how to give him sufficient playing time. Brent Rooker is having another good to great offensive season. Good for him.

Over the course of the season it is regression to the mean. I’m not predicting anything close to sustaining their hot spells for any of these guys. As I said, three of the four have negative WAR. All four would project to being better than a replacement player over the course of a season.

A couple of weeks ago, the critics were all over the Twins for their second-rate acquisitions in the off season along with the decisions to keep veteran part-time players on the payroll. Four players were singled out--Carlos Santana, Cristian Vázquez, Kyle Farmer and Manuel Margot. It seems all of these guys are on the upswing. Santana is getting regular at-bats as the Twins first baseman and with a good game yesterday got his OPS+ over 100. He's second on the club in homers and RBI and would project to come in with something like 25 homers and 80 RBI for a full season. For the last four weeks, his OPS is .814, for the last two weeks, the OPS is .998 and in the last week his OPS is .943. He's improved his OPS versus right hand pitching to .678, which is below average, but not severely so. Vázquez has improved lately as well. In the last seven days, he's put up an OPS of 1.345, his two-week OPS is .970 and in the last four weeks, he has on OPS of .623, not great, but totally acceptable for a defense-first catcher. Farmer also has trended up in the last month after a terrible start. His last seven day OPS is .733, two week interval is .844 and for the last four weeks, he has an OPS of .751. Finally, Margot has started to hit a little as well. His last seven days OPS is 1.433, two weeks--1.066 and four weeks--.912 OPS. What does this mean? Well, I think regression to the mean is a thing. All four of these guys started out cold as ice and it only figured that they would return to some sort of decent level. Secondly, perhaps patience is a good thing for a manager and front office to display. Finally, I don't think we should be saying that this warm streak for all four players vindicates the front office. Vázquez, Margot and Farmer still have negative WAR because of their brutal starts and Santana logs in at +.6, not exactly All-Star quality.

Castro was much better against right handed pitching than left handed pitching last year. His career splits aren't very wide. I'm fairly comfortable with Willi from either side of the plate. Frankly, since May 1, Santana has been better against any pitching than Kirilloff. Shielding left handed pitchers against left handed pitchers is fairly easily done. It's really hard to do the reverse (shield righties from righties). Personally, I would like to see more consistency from all of the hitters.