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ashbury

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Everything posted by ashbury

  1. ashbury
    Why, was there a rumour to the contrary? http://kindle.howpo.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/55641__610JPcO1AeL.jpg
  2. ashbury
    Although I suggested an avenue or two to explore, ultimately I think trying to tweak RBI into a rate stat is a dead end. I like WPA. Win Probability Added deals with every plate appearance, and it covers edge cases like the 3-single run I previously brought up or your solo homer scenario. A game thread isn't the right place to keep going with such a tangent, so I'll stop here, but wanted to tie up the loose thread. / edit - I typed before reading the rest of the thread, and RE24 approaches the question a useful way too. It's not situational, if I understand right, so it gives as much credit to a final run on either side of a 10-1 laugher as a 2-1 walkoff score, which is also a criticism of raw RBI. / edit^2 - OK, so that means I didn't stop when I said I would stop.
  3. ashbury
    I'm with you, although defining opportunity is hard. They don't award the batting title to the player with the most hits. However the player with the most hits is almost certainly a very good hitter. Likewise anyone who leads the league in RBI, or even reaches the 100 level, is surely a good hitter, with all the necessary clutchness we want. So the fans who judge by RBI aren't wrong, when they look at the high end of the rankings. It's the players who don't get many RBI who you want to take a closer look at before dismissing - maybe they bat leadoff or ninth, or maybe their team is bad and there weren't many ducks on the pond over the course of the season, or maybe the opportunities just didn't even out over the course of a particular season. Runs are the coin of the realm, so celebrating the Run and the RBI stat makes perfect sense. But if 3 singles in an inning lead to 1 run, the first guy gets credit, the third guy gets different credit, and the second guy is a bum. With hits, it's easy to define opportunity, either as AB if you want batting average, or combined with walks for OBP using PA as the denominator of the fraction. For RBI, it's a lot harder to break down - a man-on-first opportunity with 2 out is not the same as bases loaded (or even anybody on third with less than 2 out) - thus a simple denominator is hard to conjure up.
  4. ashbury
    A good beginning turned into a bad game for Felix on July 17 against the Jacksonville Ten-Legged Crustaceans. Some first-inning jitters (loading the bases via two hits and a walk) disappeared and he retired the next 9 batters, while being staked to a 6-0 lead. What at the time must have seemed like a meaningless run came across in the fourth on a groundout. But then the bottom fell out for him in the fifth, as six consecutive batters reached base after an initial groundout. He left with a 6-5 lead still intact. But reliever Randy LeBlanc could not stem the tide, allowing one inherited runner to score and eventually taking the loss via 3 more runs of his own in the decisive sixth inning, for a 9-6 final. All told, Jorge's line shows 9 hits and 2 walks that led to 6 earned runs in only four and a third inning. It was quite a poor showing after a promising start.
  5. ashbury
    Aaron earned Twins Daily Minor League Pitcher of the Day honors for the fourth time so far this season with a 3-0 complete game victory over the Charlotte Knights. The game was the nightcap of a double header, and thus of the 7-inning variety, but he had made only 74 pitches so there's no telling how far he would have gone if allowed. He gave up just 4 hits and 1 walk, notching 5 strikeouts. He was like a man among boys to start the game, retiring the first 9 batters he faced. The only help he really needed came in the fourth inning when catcher Mitch Garver nailed a would-be base-stealer, in advance of a double (which was the only extra-base hit surrendered).
  6. ashbury
    This was a tremendously entertaining game to watch. I have had to try to explain baseball to European colleagues, and this would be the game I would have rather shown them to try to grow their appreciation.
  7. ashbury
    Raw run differential seems like a noisy data set to draw conclusions from. Anecdotally, our manager has thrown his few good bullpen assets into the games that look winnable, and let the rest of the relievers try to establish themselves during garbage time. This has had the effect of turning 6-2 deficits into 11-4 losses, which hurts run differential but not the standings. A team like ours with one or two reliable starters and two or three reliable relievers might be the outlier for analysis by differential. Granted, such run differential does indeed indicate the talent level of the entire roster as it stands (minus the dregs who have already been discarded), but might not provide guidance or may even mask how much good it would do to eliminate a couple of low performers. We're still on the low part of the S-shaped curve of wins versus talent.
  8. ashbury
    It predates the movie with Ermey. It surely predates the movie with Louis Gossett Jr. as well.
  9. ashbury
    Don't we need to roll over and get 2 more outs, so that this inning doesn't get washed out by rain?
  10. ashbury
    I doubt it too. I hang on to him, and continue to shop Dozier.
  11. ashbury
    He may also be a white Jason Tyner. Which could mean... a healthy chunk of time at DH.
  12. ashbury
    He's only just turned 24 now. I'm inclined to expect we haven't seen his best major league season yet. A guy who hit above .270 in AAA at age 22, with non-negligible pop, still has a chance to be good. If somebody said "tons", that might be overstating the potential. But middle infielders don't have to have tons of offensive potential to still be important contributors. I don't trade Polanco except for a really solid pitching prospect.
  13. ashbury
    That extra base on Rosario needs to come out of his kangaroo court fine.
  14. ashbury
    Now that's the Aggies7 I know.
  15. ashbury
    The both of you are being pretty gracious, considering it took a web-gem from Adrianza to make you "wrong". OTOH if getting a play like that one is wrong, I don't wanna be right.
  16. ashbury
    A lot of people have been maintaining he's best suited as a fourth outfielder. Such players sometimes masquerade as starters for bad teams.
  17. ashbury
    OK, that was a major league SS play by Ay-Ray. And a big grin.
  18. ashbury
    Yeah, but we didn't really do them justice.
  19. ashbury
    Easy there, big guy.
  20. ashbury
    I missed that. So, apparently, did Grossman.
  21. ashbury
    Phase 2 will be where we work our way down the list of not-wise.
  22. ashbury
    Dumb fielding decision by Mitchell. Forget about whether a fielder was positioned behind him, you don't stick the meat hand out there.
  23. ashbury
    I move this post be stricken from the record.
  24. ashbury
    Looks easy but not every RFer gets that liner on the fly.
  25. ashbury
    One 'a these days, DtD, one 'a these days... http://images.complex.com/complex/image/upload/c_limit,w_680/fl_lossy,pg_1,q_auto/azfwvudhswrvvt2qdcdu.jpg (Aside to ChiTown: didn't you always admire Alice's stoic courage in the face of threatened abuse?)
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