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ashbury

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Everything posted by ashbury

  1. ashbury
    FIP is mis-named. It's not fielding-independent, otherwise the formula would contain an element that distinguishes, e.g., whether you have someone like Byron Buxton playing CF behind you. It's a number constructed from plate appearances decided by not putting the ball in the reach of fielders - HR, SO, BB+HPB. That would lead to a less catchy name; I don't have a better name to propose - "What Might Have Happened If The Ball Had Never Been Put In Play". Pointing to the convergence of FIP and ERA in the long-run is circular logic - FIP is constructed as a linear regression (of the above-named factors) to actual earned runs, and contains a seasonally-adjusted additive factor to line them up more or less exactly for a given season. It seems to have some small predictive power for future ERA, versus just ERA itself. But as a method to determine pitchers' actual seasonal results with defense factored out, it's pretty far from the mark. I wouldn't use it for a HoF argument.
  2. ashbury
    I see that this is your first post. Welcome!
  3. ashbury
    If by GG you mean those who served in WWII, well, most of them are around 90 and up, and have given it a rest already.
  4. ashbury
    As for the topic, every generation complains about the no-account youth representing the future and the worthless old fogies who are holding everything back. In every generation, enough youthful idealists get disappointed and become curmudgeons, giving the next emerging elder cohort its reactionary tinge. There was the Generation Gap in the 1960s-70s, and even Plato was caught complaining stereotypically about the young'uns of his day. This is absolutely nothing new.
  5. ashbury
    They need to add a comma if they want to be taken seriously here in 02,017.
  6. ashbury
    I imagine the smart money thinks this is a great time to be making bets. A baseline of bets now gives you just that much more room to construct hedging bets later on that assure you a profit (above and beyond the house advantage) no matter who wins the pennant. Silly White Sox fans.
  7. ashbury
    I'm sure that Trump will follow up with retweeted videos of a two-bit white nationalist beating a black person, just like the two-bit punk beating on a crippled guy. Because he's fair minded, you know.
  8. ashbury
    http://www.fulltimebettingblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/turning-a-corner.jpg
  9. ashbury

    Science!

    ashbury replied to Vanimal46's topic in The Sports Bar

    Twenty-foot tall space bacteria that come in peace. Or so they say! Dun-dun-dunnnnnnn!
  10. ashbury
    Something I've occasionally wondered is whether the team has any choice, if the option doesn't vest. Say he pitches 165 innings but the team is happy with him and wants to pay the $14M for the next season, can they execute the option anyway, or is the option voided automatically and negotiation goes like for any free agent?
  11. ashbury
    Isn't the change in fastball grip the sort of "adjustment" that may help for a few starts, until the book on him changes? And isn't the slider only as good as his ability to locate it, which seems to come and go during a long season? His last three starts of the season, taken together, amount to the same old Gibby, in terms of results. I'm just not convinced he has turned any kind of corner.
  12. ashbury
    People waving fistfuls of dollar bills and wanting to place bets have an amazing effect on bookmakers. And don't fear for their profitability; they are able to hedge in ways that would put Wall Streeters to shame.
  13. ashbury
    It's the nature of the game that pitchers and batters alike are always tinkering and adjusting. So (tying in with another comment) I'm sure that Gibson's string of success coincided with one specific change or another. The question will be whether future adjustments will be likewise successful, or whether that one particular change was a one-time blip. (Because of the constant flow of adjustments, sometimes analytic types use a shorthand of "luck" or "not-repeatable".)
  14. ashbury
  15. ashbury
    This is of course Putin's long game, by getting involved in our politics. Retribution for the breakup of the USSR.
  16. ashbury
    I just have to wonder what kind of human being files a knowingly false sex assault claim for tactical political benefit, knowing that each such claim makes it harder for the ones with real claims to come forward. At the most mundane and self-interested level, what if she herself is a victim of abuse at some later time? Unless she has ironclad witnesses,she can never bring forward her charges. This amounts to peeing in one's own bath water....
  17. ashbury
    Full no-trade clause?
  18. ashbury
    I can't argue with facts.
  19. ashbury
    What you are probably thinking of is that there is a AAA phase to the rule-5 draft. After the major league phase, teams also protect players on the 38-man AAA reserve roster. An additional 37 are protected in the AA phase. Don't ask me how they picked these numbers.
  20. ashbury
    There is now an article on this topic, so further comments are directed there.
  21. ashbury
    So he left Twins money on the table, so as not to languish in AAA? That's a lot of dough.
  22. ashbury
    If the Gophs had been content to run down the clock, then there might be a divergence of opinion on whether to pull in one's horns or not, when faced with such a situation. But taking early jumpers (as the written account has it - I did not view the game) doesn't seem intended to take it easy on a decimated opponent. Gophers got what they deserved, with that strategy.
  23. ashbury
    No, we call our ridicule parties ridicule parties. We're a straight-shootin' crowd. ModCon'12: ModCon'14: ModCon16: ModCon'18?
  24. ashbury
    In the straw poll at the SABR Rhode Island chapter meeting today, only Chipper Jones achieved the necessary 75% vote, among the fifty or so codgers who attended, and none of the Veterans Committee candidates made it. Thome came close at around 70% and I think Vladdie was above 50%; Tiant was the biggest vote-getter in the other poll, not surprisingly given the audience.
  25. ashbury
    Regardless of how you view yourself with "stats", you display a highly *analytic* mindset when you challenge the practitioners to achieve an even finer granularity reflecting the underlying reality of what's being studied.
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