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ashbury

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Everything posted by ashbury

  1. ashbury
    Here's what ChatGPT has to say about who won the American League pennant in 1899: (Whatever was going on in Boston in 1899, it wasn't the franchise that joined the American League in 1901, and the predecessor to the American League known as the Western League had no Boston franchise.) I ran across this mistake a year or two ago, and it continues to crop up when I try it again now and then. Sure it's a trick question; I expect software to deal with fuzzy input. So, personally, I would double check anything ChatGPT tells me. I trust ChatGPT less than I trust Wikipedia, which is really saying something.
  2. ashbury
    A fair way to end the tangent. TBH I was thinking of finding an off-ramp too after regretting my last post, and you saved me the trouble. 😀
  3. ashbury
    Teams have to base decisions on something. You advocate ERA or FIP? Or just Ks and BBs? There's more than that to go on.
  4. ashbury
    Just start him in the major league All-Star Game and cut out all this in-between stuff.
  5. ashbury
    Weep for me. I married an Irish-Catholic from Chicago. 😀
  6. ashbury
    So do you trust ERA or FIP instead? Because that was my point.
  7. ashbury
    ERA and its cousin FIP are both so wonky when it comes to partial innings that I would not place much stock in either for relievers. Not when OPS-against simply looks at outcomes on a plate appearance basis. OPS is subject to variability like any other rate stat, but I don't see how it has any disadvantages not shared by other stats, especially where platoon-splits are of interest.
  8. ashbury
    If that were true, depending on what limits you have in mind for the word "small", they would do equally well and perhaps better by simply dropping the fee and exposing advertisers to an even bigger and thus more lucrative audience, with the ancillary benefit of a happier customer base.
  9. ashbury
    Tell us your neighbors don't think of you as a local, without saying the words "my neighbors don't think of me as a local." 😀 Kidding aside, you have identified both the promise and the problem with putting together a roster whose stars are high injury (or variability) risks to begin with. If things come together just right, it could be a 100 win team. I mean, compare it to the 2019 squad - it could happen, right? CJ Cron is not a very high hurdle to clear. And no team, no player, is without the risk of injury, so why can't it be our turn? The problem is when you have accumulated enough against-the-odds players, missed playing time and minor league demotions start to be more of a foregone conclusion than merely bad luck. I go back to a thing that I heard Terry Ryan say at a conference, not too long before he got fired. To paraphrase: "there are a lot of guys who would be Hall of Famers if pro baseball was played once a week instead of every day." I recall he was taking a not too subtle jab at Delmon Young. But I think about that observation often, in a variety of contexts.
  10. ashbury
    We got a small sample of that during the 2023 post-season and I'm not currently eager to jump into a larger sample size to judge from, without breaking him into the pattern slowly.
  11. ashbury
    Apart from the rest of your post which I mainly agree with, I misread this line to say "lawyers", which ironically turns out also to be a correct reading. 😀
  12. ashbury
    I looked further and the source of the confusion is that yes, MLB player contracts are guaranteed - in the sense of "all money will be paid under all the conditions mentioned in the contract." This is in contrast to the NFL, for example, which often publicizes long-term contracts that actually are guaranteed for only one year along with signing bonuses that are paid right away, with no buyouts for the years in the future. In baseball there are some escape clauses (unprofessional behavior and so forth) and there can be option years with buyouts, but basically when you see that a ballplayer has a $60M contract across some number of years, he'll get $60M. MLB requires this. But MLB contracts are guaranteed by the individual team signing it, not by the larger body of MLB itself. A team declaring bankruptcy would matter a lot. Here's a source, among many to choose from: https://littleballparks.com/are-mlb-contracts-guaranteed/ Sorry to go off on this tangent but your statement really took me by surprise.
  13. ashbury
    We know, because she puts up with you counting her stuff.
  14. ashbury
    Now. 😀
  15. ashbury
    I think you worry about that if and when it happens. 😀
  16. ashbury
    A chip and a chair at this point. Eagles give them one last seat at the table. Fun game.
  17. ashbury
    Not that anyone's counting.
  18. ashbury
    Ohtani's contract caused some people to ask exactly this question concerning the Dodgers. Here's a couple of examples (that I think come from a common source but seem to have different angles): https://www.louisianalawblog.com/bankruptcy-and-business-reorganization/bankruptcy-and-baseball-ii-what-happens-to-shohei-ohtanis-record-contract-if-the-los-angeles-dodgers-file-for-bankruptcy-again/ https://www.texaslawblog.law/2023/12/bankruptcy-and-baseball-what-happens-to-shohei-ohtanis-record-contract-if-the-los-angeles-dodgers-file-for-bankruptcy-again/ Their take, for what it's worth, didn't seem to involve MLB already having guaranteed anything, nor even stepping in, in such a circumstance. Who knows, really. Well, they know, but they aren't likely to tell us.
  19. ashbury
    Disposable income and free time will determine your answer, but the ability to humble-brag to another diehard fan, "there was that crazy play in Sacramento's little park when I saw the Twins that wouldn't have happened anywhere else," would count for something. 😀
  20. ashbury
    Oooo, that's a great tidbit. Do you have a source for that? When something affects my thinking by that much, I'd like to be sure.
  21. ashbury
    Looking forward to photos of the 2990 Twins. That might be the year they finally win the World Series again. / Yes, I find that the low-hanging fruit is often the sweetest....
  22. ashbury
    When Michael F. Tonkin is today's standard for success*, we're in a heap o' trouble. 😀 * Or even, "good enough"
  23. ashbury
    You've raised an excellent question, and no, I would not be happy with the Twins mortgaging their future in this way. I can't believe the league is being short-sighted in not requiring ironclad financial guarantees from the deeper-pocketed teams who do it, but I don't really know for sure that it's being done.
  24. ashbury
    While one tactic is to bring the guy in for the final out of the inning, after which the rules do let you replace him for the next inning, a more reliable tactic ("The Facepalm") to achieve this elusive result is if the pitcher can't get anyone out* and he's removed after the three requisite batters. 😀 * I keed, I keed. To be fair, Saucedo did that only once in 2024. He did have his share of appearances facing 3 batters and registering one out, though.
  25. ashbury
    For this kind of nostalgia, baseball-reference.com provides a way to stroll down memory lane. It offers a split of statistics by batting order, and if you go to this link and then click on each of the batting order positions, a pop-up will show you how it broke down among the players. https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/split.cgi?t=b&team=MIN&year=1970#all_lineu Your memory looks accurate to me. Tovar was lead-off all the time. Carew batted second exclusively, until he was unavailable. Tony O and Harmon kind of swapped places now and then, it seems, which might or might not have had anything to do with Rod's absence. Further down the line was less set in stone, but that's to be expected, and seeing Cardenas get the majority of chances batting 7th indicates just how much stability mattered to manager Rigney. Carew's injury really messed that up.
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