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ashbury

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Everything posted by ashbury

  1. ashbury
    Eventually, and I think not too far down the road, he can elect free agency.
  2. ashbury
    FanGraphs has taken a crack at this. I'm not sure how successfully. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/introducing-the-batter-specific-run-expectancy-tool/ I agree that we're a long way away from using actual RE tables to make game decisions. They're just (IMO) interesting as a way of setting a baseline for discussion. Fast/slow runner on second, a good/bad hitter at the plate, a good bunter on the bench... all these will adjust the numbers, at the risk of cutting down the numbers to Small Sample Size, meaning that the manager using his noodle to decide is still probably for the best.
  3. ashbury
    I don't think "formula" or "equation" is an accurate representation of run expectancy. In its basic form, it's historical data, sorted (and averaged) into 24 spots in a matrix that comes from there being 3 numbers of outs (0,1 and 2) and each of the three bases might either be occupied or not (2x2x2=8 configurations). Here is an example compilation from game data 1950-2015: http://www.tangotiger.net/re24.html Now, I think FanGraphs goes to another level, and has some proprietary formulas that they use to adjust the real-world data for various purposes, such as to speculate on an era where offense is higher across the board. But those aren't formulas that people like us need, when putting the RE table to use. I guess you can say there is a "formula", of sorts, on how to use the table. When a plate appearance is finished, take the RA value of the new situation, subtract the RA value before the play started, and of course add any actual runs that were scored. That's the result, from either the batter's or the pitcher's perspective. Also, there are two main variations of the table: expected number of runs to score the rest of the inning, or the probability of scoring at least one run. In late innings, particularly the bottom of the ninth (which was the discussion point), the latter may be more important. But the numbers you crank, through this process, are at heart real life data, even if sliced and diced a few ways.
  4. ashbury
    Garver apparently didn't run his idea, of tweeting this, past the PR folks, who surely would have advised him, "don't feed the trolls, not even that way". / though, I'm wary of anything posted April 1
  5. ashbury
    With 4 Plate Appearances in 2019, versus 3 apiece for Castro and Garver, Willians Astudillo is listed by baseball-reference.com this morning as the starting catcher for the Minnesota Twins. Congratulations on the promotion!
  6. ashbury
    Careful, if you call him this to his face.
  7. ashbury
    Yeah, Rocco ought to grab a ball and bat sometime, and go out on the field to try out his theories. It's not so easy out there, compared to just sitting in the recliner chair in the dugout and pushing some buttons. / edit - April Fool?
  8. ashbury
    Not clear if anyone on the roster qualifies as a sure thing who is just waiting for an opening on the big club. Quite a number of question marks who, if they pan out, could contribute. The Red Wings' visits to Pawtucket are marked on my calendar, to get a look in person when the time comes.
  9. ashbury
    Apparently not, though.
  10. ashbury
    Max better be ready to run hard, if he has Byron behind him on the basepath.
  11. ashbury
    Doesn't look sustainable. Cobb's BA is built on a BABIP of .383. When that eventually normalizes to a league-average, look for the Georgia Peach's numbers to come crashing down. Willians's BABIP is a more svelte .352. I like his chances. The difference comes because Cobb was a veritable strikeout machine, K'ing a massive 680 times in just 24 years. That's why his BA is so much lower than his BABIP. Our guy has struck out just 3 times in his entire major league career. Cobb also appeared to be nearly incapable of playing anywhere on the field except CF - he worked a little in RF, now and then, probably to great detriment to the team. Astudillo? Where CAN'T he play? Case closed.
  12. ashbury
    Pretty much a lock, by now.
  13. ashbury
    When he came in it was only 3-0, and I wasn't too wowed with his command or movement on the ball in that inning. "Effectively wild" at best.
  14. ashbury
    Oh, by far, that was the only negative to Astudillo's day. He keeps having these coming out parties like today's game - eventually we're going to figure out he's not a debutante anymore.
  15. ashbury
    We're probably looking at the same video, and it might be the only one available, and I agree it's hard to tell exactly when the coach stopped/started to signal to run hard. The coach came into view just a millisecond too late for our purpose. With none out, the instinct probably was to be conservative. If instead it was indecision, due to not completely thinking through in advance that you had an eager runner on second and a very fast one on first, then that's a place for some fine tuning and discussion. But if the indecision was on the part of Astudillo, and/or he wasn't on the same page with Buxton, then that's something else to work out. Wasn't costly this time. Next time it might be. Astudillo was clearly upset even though he had scored. Since I don't know his demeanor that well yet, he looked almost on the verge of tears. That could have been anger at himself (my interpretation), or coach Diaz(?), or Buxton. Wonder if it came up in the postgame interviews.
  16. ashbury
    Under Molitor: not make baserunning mistakes like we saw today. I'm hopeful that Rocco isn't quite so doctrinaire. Figure out what the players can do, not hang them for what they don't.
  17. ashbury
    Harper pitches a scoreless ninth. I'm happy for the kid plucky grizzled veteran guy.
  18. ashbury
    Schoop scoops.
  19. ashbury
    Rounded third then held up, getting Buxton hung up rounding second. Willians came in to score during the rundown but it still cost a needless out.
  20. ashbury
    Willians accepting the high-fives in the dugout but looking quite upset with himself after the baserunning gaffe.
  21. ashbury
    Wouldn't have changed my assessment of the two pitchers' outings.
  22. ashbury
    Purpose Pitch to Willians just then?
  23. ashbury
    Pineda >> Perez
  24. ashbury
  25. ashbury
    Might be a Major League record.
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