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ashbury

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Everything posted by ashbury

  1. ashbury
    Now repeat the ancient chant, "Owah... Tagu... Siam".
  2. ashbury
  3. ashbury
    Yeah, it's easy to do that. Pro-tip, get there early, because they run exactly on time.
  4. ashbury
    http://media1.giphy.com/media/6OWIl75ibpuFO/giphy.gif I am not a pile of poo, sorry.
  5. ashbury
    This view is useful, but seriously clouds the value of a stud athlete if he makes it to the major leagues. First, because these career WAR totals reflect both higher per-year WAR accumulation, and longer careers. Second, because you can't put together a winning team by promoting 50 1.0-WAR players to the majors in a season. The constraint of a 25-man roster looms huge, in making grade-60 prospects more valuable than 55-grade. I was being a little flippant in suggesting an actual exponential weighting (and I backed off of it in the next breath). But it's far, far from linear.
  6. ashbury
    Yes, and it's not just not linear, it's almost exponential, how much more valuable a player gets as he moves toward the tail of the bell curve. I'd almost try a point system like this: 45 = 1 pt per player 50 = 2 pt per player 55 = 4 60 = 8 65 = 16 70 = 32 Maybe cap it at 8, though; there is a lot of noise in these 80-point scale rankings of players, and someone's opinion that a player is a 70 and not a 65 shouldn't leapfrog a team over a lot of others.
  7. ashbury
    Probably the first time anyone has hung that nickname on him since he was a toddler.
  8. ashbury
    I am high on Kepler but I will not be surprised if he gets off to a slow start in AAA. Last year was the "two steps forward" phase, I'm ready for "one step back". A full year for Max at AAA will not disturb me.
  9. ashbury
    That's assuming Murphy is batting north of .230 in AAA by May, which at the moment doesn't seem like a sure bet...
  10. ashbury
    The Maestro is not actually a very good CFer, from all the reports I recall seeing. He's merely serviceable in the field, and since his bat is below par, it's tough to see him getting enough playing time to be a starter even on a temporary basis.
  11. ashbury
    If it saves us from just one ugly beard, like the one above that Aaron Thompson apparently thinks he is rocking, then we all will benefit.
  12. ashbury
    Great Spring story. It's killing me that I didn't get to come down this year.
  13. ashbury
    Murphy's having a poor Spring at the plate. SSS and all, but I would have felt better if it weren't so. But then again I don't believe Centeno's spring numbers, so I guess I should ignore all of the numbers. Just like I tell myself each off-season.
  14. ashbury
    There are plenty of things we all like to discuss that in the big picture don't actually matter. http://www.ncaabracket.us/wp-content/themes/atahualpa/images/ncaa-bracket.jpg
  15. ashbury
    I only said "discouraging".
  16. ashbury
    Molitor's quote about Polanco "guiding" the ball to first is discouraging. This is what I saw in him, last spring - he can get the distance, or the accuracy, but not both. I was hoping he could find some way to get over the hump. But it sounds to me as if he is just shy of having a shortstop's arm. A pity. I imagine he can have a career at 2B (for some team, maybe the Twins), but SS would be nicer.
  17. ashbury
    Some people already complain that modern stats are too complicated. But these stats often contain a simplifying assumption that only highly-talented players (i.e. those who can hold onto a MLB job) are being measured. If a truly universal stat were devised, to measure pitchers on a spectrum from you or me to Clayton Kershaw, how much more arcane might it become?
  18. ashbury
    Back when it was Florimon versus Escobar, there was genuine disagreement over who was the better choice at SS, but it seemed clear to me that based on minor league progress the hitting stats said that EE had the upside. He was still so young. Now I think we may have gone a little too far overboard; he's a competent defender but not much more, and his hitting will not likely stay at such an elevated level. On the other hand, my eyeball test tells me he's a smart hitter, with legitimate pop in his bat when he chooses his spots wisely, and it's possible that I am underselling his bat by a little.
  19. ashbury
    They do. It's called SABR. You can join.
  20. ashbury
    Art Mahaffey got saddled with a reputation for pitch tipping. It probably irked him - "it was one game in Spring Training!" he surely would tell anyone who would listen, but I'm just guessing about that. Source below. Since it was early 1960s, maybe not totally relevant to this discussion. https://news.google.com/newspapers?nid=888&dat=19630313&id=85BPAAAAIBAJ&sjid=KVIDAAAAIBAJ&pg=7272,1076885&hl=en
  21. ashbury
    Fair point, but there do exist leagues where the game is not totally incidental to the beer. Full disclosure: I can not guess from personal experience what that would be like.
  22. ashbury
    If it had been Beer League ball I'd have been especially impressed.
  23. ashbury
    If Saul Pohlad of Tarsus*, accompanying the team on a road trip to Damascus, had a vision and suddenly realized, "my God, I've been pricing ordinary families out of going to ballgames," and cut ticket prices by 90%, guess what would happen? Scalpers would find ways to scoop up every ticket, and you'd pay essentially the same prices as before, only on StubHub Ticket King. The money is there, richer fans than you and me are the ones bidding up the prices, and the only question is whether you want that revenue going to the players, to the team owners, or to sketchy guys doing arbitrage on the street and slightly more reputable ones via automated websites. * Or Twins president Dave St Paul, if you prefer
  24. ashbury
    If it's ever viewed as a real problem, it should be possible to modify the rules to fix it. The reliever's been throwing for 5 minutes in the bullpen, yet gets 5 (or whatever) pitches when he arrives at the mound. Cut that out, and a pitching change isn't that painful. Such a change also adds a slight bit of strategy - if those extra warmup pitches really are useful to the pitcher, then the manager has a dilemma whether to bring in that guy for just one lefty-lefty matchup.
  25. ashbury
    Thought provoking analysis, SD. There are a lot of moving parts, so it's tough to forecast what the outcomes will be, but I would think this covers a lot of the possibilities.
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