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ashbury

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Everything posted by ashbury

  1. ashbury
    There are no clean hands in Houston, either.
  2. ashbury
    Your deadline is approaching. You need to create something. This is how to write a great article, the RandBalls Stu Way: See above.
  3. ashbury
    The baseline isn't a batting tee, but it's not an average majorleaguer, either. You might prefer WAA, Wins Above Average. It's usually around 2 lower than WAR, for a full-timer player
  4. ashbury
    I don't think there was a premature announcement. Someone on the inside of one of the organizations probably shot off their mouth to someone with media connections, for reasons unknown. I would guess it was someone new to the Red Sox, young and inexperienced and interested in demonstrating what an insider he or she is now - but other possibilities exist. Dodgers and Twins usually run a tight ship, whereas the Red Sox have probably had some turnover under the new guy Bloom. Once the cat was out of the bag, and names were named, there really wasn't going to be a "fair" way to roll back the trade and un-name the players. Trade discussions like this probably happen all the time, getting near the point of announcement, and we don't hear about them when something jinxes the deal.
  5. ashbury
    I give this article an A. I think each team got out of the transaction what they wanted, and I can understand the motivations for each. The premature leak of the proposed deal hurt, and perhaps some low-level staffer will lose their job as a result if they are found out. Otherwise, I could see awarding an Oprah style grade of A ("You Get an A, and YOU get an A, you ALL get an A!") to everyone involved, except probably Bosox owner John Henry for not using deep pockets to give the new GM a mulligan for the old GM's financial choices.
  6. ashbury
    My "HTH" (Hope This Helps) was tongue-in-cheek to indicate I wasn't providing anything of much use. More constructively, here is a televised interview. The introduction is cut off so we don't hear his name pronounced, but at around the 1:50 mark he pronounces his older brother's name, kee-OH-kee ka-VAH-ko, which kind of suggests the accent in the middle of his own first name too. / edit - this prospect hound pronounces his name with assurance that is hopefully well-placed. kee-AH-nee.
  7. ashbury
    Ke-o-ni Ca-va-co. HTH.
  8. ashbury
  9. ashbury
    Came here to say this. I kept seeing the phrasing in the comments on MLBTR articles concerning the trade, and wondering where this spin was coming from. Turn around and walk away, after the Bosox backed out, fine.
  10. ashbury
    The games Danchat listed were not consecutive starts. I just took a look at Jacob deGrom's game log, and if you focus on his 8 losses in 2019 he seems like a pretty untrustworthy hurler. If that's how it goes for a Cy Young winner, it probably can be applied to nearly anyone.
  11. ashbury
    Really solid analyses, Tom. I took a look at Miranda's stats before reading the rest of your snapshot, and was ready to post that I want to see what he can do, away from the FSL, but then read on and found you had that covered! This grouping is a mix of guys with emerging track records or simply toolsy prospects, a cohort that's going to be fun to watch.
  12. ashbury
    Please deposit the proceeds to my PayPal account.
  13. ashbury
    I'll cover that wager and choose KC.
  14. ashbury
    If he were declared a free agent right now? You are light on the number of years and on the average per season. The high bidder would offer something in Gerrit Cole territory, considering that Jose is younger and has been healthy. $300M for total contract value, surely. The lower numbers we are discussing here are because of the lack of negotiating leverage he currently has. It's hard to express just how much impact the CBA has on player prices. / edit - ninja'd by the above post!
  15. ashbury
    Came here to ask this also. I don't hate it, if there is one. But it certainly changes the tone, for the reasons you outlined. I'm just not as intrigued by, or as optimistic about, the young arms on the 40-man as you are. Hope I'm proved wrong.
  16. ashbury
    Forecasting is hard, and I can't take much issue with these views. My strongest disagreement would be about Houston's DH - Alvarez could wind up leading the league in OPS. Much as I like our guy, Cruz may not be able to keep up with that, even at his best. Our young guys could take a step forward, or they could regress from career-years. But same is true for other teams. This study serves to remind me how hard it is to be the best - these are some seriously potent offenses, and it's pretty good to be mentioned in the same breath with them. Points up to me how we can't rely on our position players to carry all the load, the pitching needs to be top-notch too if we hope to make serious noise in the post-season.
  17. ashbury
    The Twins do not have too many good outfielders. They have about the right number. It's a non-problem. I'll worry about making room for the prospects when those prospects have demonstrated they are good enough to be given a place on the major league roster.
  18. ashbury
    "Alice".
  19. ashbury
    An old principle applies: "When in doubt, predict that the present trend will continue." ZIPS is good at removing outlier seasons, and factoring in potential improvement (for young'uns) or decline (for geezers). But still, every season contains surprises, and the odds for each of these predicted names has to be under 50/50. When you expect the unexpected, these are the expectations that it makes sense to violate.
  20. ashbury
    If he's the best 9 hole hitter in the league, he won't remain the best 9 hole hitter in the league for long.
  21. ashbury
    This is what has bothered me about the high expectations some have for Hill. The procedure has been around a little while now, and yet the only player I could find a mention of (when I looked, after Hill was signed) was Maness. Glad to learn of the other two; but none of these three has "made it all the way back", in my estimation. IOW, Hill would be the first. Worth a try, but I'm not banking on him in the slightest. The article's is great, by the way - a deep dive into a topic few of us are capable of judging independently.
  22. ashbury
    Executive summary of article: "Throw better. Use better footwork." OK, but this has been the knock on him for a long time. I expect most of the ideas coaches have were tried, Good luck trying again this spring, I suppose, but I feel like I'm looking at a second baseman. As long as the bat holds up, and I think it will, Polanco's an asset at short. Just not the superstar we want.
  23. ashbury
    I'm not a super big fan of K/9, which answers the question, what are the chances a given out is achieved via strikeout. Instead, I'd rather know the chances that a given plate appearance will result in a K. That's K%. And in the case of Littell, that number went up even more between 2018 and 2019, namely from 13.9% to 21.9%. K/9 understates the improvement, since it can be high even if the pitcher is giving up tons of hits. An improvement in K% means there's simply that many fewer opportunities for damage. His BB% also improved year-over-year. That said, it's still not an elite level of strikeouts. The AL had dozens of guys in the 30s. The league average was 22.7%. He's young and may improve but I'm not really banking on him.
  24. ashbury
    Rebut what you disagree with, citing facts also. Ignore what you feel wasn't worth having read.
  25. ashbury
    This is an interesting contingency study, but ultimately the Twins FO needs to be pragmatic, aggressive, and above all opportunistic, when other teams start quietly shopping their starters. It's really hard, nearly random, to forecast any such events at this time.
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