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Everything posted by ashbury
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LOL. (Skip this if computer games annoy you.) The other day I fired up an up-to-date set of rosters in the OOTP game, for the purpose of letting it run two or three days of simulation to see what foolishness might arise on the waiver wire (I had been in a discussion on their website regarding a possible bug that I ... oh never mind 😄 ). Your post prompted me to check something about Tyler Stephenson, and I couldn't find him on the Reds. Lo and behold, the very first day of the simulation, the Rays had traded for him! They gave up a package of 5 prospects, three outside the top-20 listed at mlb.com's prospects page, and two others not even in that top 30. Before anyone wastes the effort to say it - "it's just a game!" - yes, it's just a game, and it's for fun. Still, it made me LOL, out loud, laughing even. Great minds, whether AI or human, all seem to think alike, and the Rays and Yankees could be dueling for the same catching reinforcements.
- 97 replies
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- ryan jeffers
- 2026 trade deadline
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The Last Gasp if you really don't have a catcher.
- 97 replies
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- ryan jeffers
- 2026 trade deadline
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I wouldn't trade Tristan Gray for Luis Arraez. I'm a broken record where it comes to Luis, and I don't hate the guy nor do I mean to pick on you. But I've seen his name come up during this trade deadline by other posters too, so I'll try to say it once and then not keep bringing it up. For all his elite batting average skills, the man has scored as many as 88 runs one time in his career, even though he generally plays a full season, and where the league leader generally scores well above 100 runs (Ohtani scored 146 last year). "Oh, but the OTHER batters aren't doing their job! They aren't driving him in! He's on a weak offensive team, what do you expect?" Exactly. He is PART of a weak offense, this year with the Giants, last year with the Padres, before that with Miami. Eventually I have to conclude that he's part of the problem, not part of the solution. If he were on a MLB minimum contract, sure, I could find a place for him I suppose, though I can find a place for a lot of guys with similar run scoring potential, as long as the 26-man roster isn't already full of them. But devoting significant dollars to him, no. I am confident there are better uses for the magnitude of salary being discussed. There, Whew. Got that off my chest. I should be good for the next 48 hours or so. 😄
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Baseball Gods to Tom Pohlad: 'Aight, Bet'
ashbury replied to Matthew Trueblood's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
What if it rains?- 128 replies
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- kevin gausman
- luke weaver
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I can think of multiple female friends who would be uncomfortable with his life choices, courtrooms aside, if that whole can of worms were to be opened again.
- 19 replies
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- mick abel
- mike paredes
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And, being no hypocrite, doesn't want to trade Ryan Jeffers! 😄
- 159 replies
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- ryan jeffers
- joe ryan
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Took me until now to click on the link to read the Athletic's article. It's Bowden. Jim effing Bowden. Not a real rumor. What a waste of electrons. What a waste of time. Bowden's gonna Bowden. *plonk*
- 87 replies
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- anthony volpe
- ryan jeffers
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Mitch Williams was known as Wild Thing. Here, we've got Weird Thing.
- 87 replies
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- anthony volpe
- ryan jeffers
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Unless he could help Gray's glove at SS, I literally don't care about that player. Take my response as whatever degree of tongue-in-cheek your own comment was intended. 😄
- 87 replies
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- anthony volpe
- ryan jeffers
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That's a given. Shelton surely doesn't want to run with 3 catchers the rest of the season. The question for the past several weeks has been which one to move. Jackson has always been insurance, and if the Twins had fallen completely out of contention he'd stay and Jeffers would go; but if the Twins are "going for it" then we're back to the Opening Day plan of Jeffers and Caratini. Jackson is almost dime-a-dozen, but probably would not make it through waivers without being claimed by someone. So look for an extremely minor deal where he goes in exchange for somebody's 25-year old relief pitcher laboring in AA, plus cash or the equivalent in international signing money or used baseballs or whatnot.
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Take a look again at the before-and-after numbers Kreidler had, Tigers vs Twins. I'm inclined to give Keith credit. Coaching hitters is an ever-evolving thing, so I hope there are ideas to keep Kreidler playable, if opposing pitchers have adjusted to the first round of adjustment the coach suggested last Spring.
- 87 replies
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- anthony volpe
- ryan jeffers
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Lengthening didn't work out so well with his prior team. A glance through his AAA game logs (and it wasn't systematic so I may have missed something) suggested that the damage would start to occur during his third inning of work and after. I'm very intrigued whether he could turn into something resembling lights out in one-inning stints. I know we are starved for starters, but we could use bullpen help too.
- 19 replies
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- mick abel
- mike paredes
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When a batter goes to the plate, the four most common outcomes are: a strikeout a walk a home run a ball is put into play (.290 BA across the majors, with only minor variations among individuals) Compared to his time with Detroit, Kreidler's record as a Twin shows him with a much reduced strikeout rate (20%, down from 30%), not much change in walk rate (6.9%, down from 7.6%), a big relative jump in home runs (2.9%, up from 0.9%), and suddenly normal outcomes when putting the ball in play (.283 BA, versus a ludicrous .198 as a Tiger). His putrid July (prior to yesterday's 3-hit breakout game) featured a reversion to somewhat worse strikeouts (25%), no home runs at all, a drop in walks (down below 4%) and maybe worst of all a BA on balls in play back to his bad old Detroit days (.179). It could be that the home run power we saw earlier this year was a complete blip, not to be repeated. Maybe his strikeouts are trending back to a higher than desirable level. But that BABIP of .179 makes him look like a candidate to "suddenly" get back to being better than a black hole at the plate, when the batted ball stops going like a magnet to opposing fielders' gloves. Anyone who believed our FO had found a gold nugget just lying there on the sand and we had a starting-caliber shortstop courtesy of the waiver wire was probably doomed to disappointment. But I still view Kreidler as a good glove with enough bat to be a utility infielder, and given our present sad, sad defensive infield roster he might as well be the starter. Keep the strikeouts low, Ryan, get the walks back up and see if you can pop a homer now and then. And do keep putting the ball in play - the BABIP will take care of itself.
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I see this sentiment regarding a lot of players. Why would we be interested in a player who stands a chance to revert in, say, the Wild Card round of the playoffs when the bright lights are coming back on? (Assuming we even have the cause of the problem correctly pegged, which I'm generally reluctant to accuse a player of.)
- 87 replies
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- anthony volpe
- ryan jeffers
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Conventional wisdom, when "scouting" prospects through stats only, is that they continue to improve (physical growth, and/or experience) in absolute terms until around age 25, while the league they play in may disguise that improvement. While I've found it a useful guideline, there is no law of physics or medicine that I know of that makes it an ironclad rule. It looks like maybe Volpe was progressing as a hitter until his age-22 season, and then stopped. His batting line 2023-26 in the majors is remarkably consistent. He is who he is and there's no point in thinking you'll unlock something. We've already got Ryan Kreidler and one is approximately enough. Let the Yankees stew in their own juices.
- 87 replies
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- anthony volpe
- ryan jeffers
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Expect this to be a topic of negotiation during the upcoming CBA. The players must be sick and tired of having to travel from their respective off-season homes, to come to their ballpark and take part in light drills and maybe get a few minutes facing pitching machines, and then fly home again after their rescheduled off-day is over. Even worse is when the off-day was during a road trip and they have to go use the visitors facilities somewhere.
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From MLB's glossary: "One of two conditions must be met for a pitcher to record a hold: 1) He enters with a lead of three runs or less and maintains that lead while recording at least one out. 2) He enters the game with the tying run on-deck, at the plate or on the bases, and records an out." Sands entered when there was too large a lead. So he wasn't eligible. (And with the number of runs he allowed, if he had been eligible when he came in, the lead would have been relinquished.) Thanks to Sands, both Nance and Funderburk were eligible for a Hold, and they preserved the lead, so both get credited. Thanks to 2 runs in the bottom of the 8th, Adams wasn't eligible for anything when he came in.

