ashbury
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Everything posted by ashbury
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2 WAR for a season, often viewed as a baseline for an "average" full-time regular, seriously undersells any catcher who achieves it. First, the number of starts behind the plate serves as a limit on the plate appearances. It's just harder to accumulate 2 WAR of value at the plate when you're playing, say, 2/3 as much as a good starting center fielder or shortstop. Second, if the catcher is a good enough hitter that you want him in the batting order even on his "days off" behind the plate, the versions of WAR I'm familiar with apply a penalty for the games as a DH. While there is a defensive bonus for playing catcher, a lot of it is negated when you DH. (This is true of hitters like Byron Buxton as well.) The DH penalty is well-intentioned, since the bar is very high to be a positive contributor there. But still, trying to be even a 2 WAR player is very hard when DHing very much. A catching tandem that together earns 2 WAR is arguably major-league average. One catcher doing that by himself is considerably better, as he leaves room for his backup to contribute too (if he is capable). -
You can go back 100+ years and find guys like Ty Cobb complaining that the current ballplayer is in it just for the money, not like the good team players they remember back in the day. Go all the way back to the beginnings of the National League (or National Association) in the 1800s and you'll find that they were fighting against the taint of "professionalism" in the first place, always there but under the table and they were bringing it out in the open. They're supposed to play just for the love of the game, in every era. And in every era, even before the advent of professional leagues, the players didn't.
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Or? Consternation by Shelton over his lack of options and refusal to play someone unqualified for any meaningful role?
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We'll have to settle for every time one of us feels like it.
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We have three catchers on the 26-man roster. Since there was no relevant trade at this deadline, either Zoll asks Shelton to juggle the present 13 position players, or a move is made. My argument is simply that Jackson is nowhere near on a par with Jeffers or Caratini, so he'd be the one to try to sneak through waivers if they decide to cut down.
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With runners in scoring position, the Twins lead the AL in batting average. The league as a whole hits .248 in that situation, the Twins sit at .279. Bases empty, the league as a whole hits .233. The Twins hit .231 in that situation. Which situation do you think stands to see a bit of regression, over the next two months? Which do you think better reflects the Twins' talent relative to the league?
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Jackson's 2025-26 has covered 168 plate appearances (156 AB). That's Hurricane Hazle territory for sample size - extreme outliers can happen. If you include 2024 as well, to get up to 323 PA (295 AB), his aggregate OPS is .607. Like I said, that's probably about who he really is, given a strikeout percentage of 34.7 during that span.
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Last year his BABIP was about league average (.306), and so his regular batting average was a much lower .229. What stood out about him last year, instead, was an abnormal home run frequency of 5%. Between the home runs last season and the seeing-eye singles this season, his OPS (or whatever overall offensive stat you like) has seemed solid but for two differing reasons - reasons that stand to both revert to lower levels going forward. Meanwhile he strikes out at an absurd 30+%, so he's going to frustrate when he's at the plate. I expect his OPS going forward to fluctuate around .600 - decent backup hitting, nothing irreplaceable, nothing that inspires to give more playing time than minimum.
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Let's revisit this judgment when the magic pixie dust wears off and the BABIP drops from its current .452 during his Twins tenure. / edit - ninja'd
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Some of that salary will be covered by the Jays.
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You didn't care for the Varland trade? Tell me more.
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Other way around, I just got done saying.
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Jays are said to be covering some portion of that total (rest of this year, and next).
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Other way around, just for the record.
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Cubs still looking to deal Steve Bartman.
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First they have to figure out which team to call to swing a transaction.
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- randy dobnak
- isiah kiner falefa
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"Good trade." "Good trade." "Good trade." At least, as I recall it.
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Eyebleach, plz.
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That's always been a problem with Larnach. There's a lot of guys just like him.
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It comes down to professional talent evaluators. If you have your guys telling you that Culpepper is as close to can't-miss at SS as can be, then the extra years would tip the balance for the GM. If they couch everything in terms like "if all goes well", then Neto's track record could be what decides it. Health and injury-proneness, likewise. Guys like Larnach also serve to remind me that while we think of "six years of team control," the actual case can often be one or more years "lost" due to not being ready to produce right out of the gate. Supposing that Larnach has now reached his plateau of productiveness, we're getting about 2 years (counting next year), not 6. With a bright, shiny new prospect there's the assumption he'll be great right away, and that needs to be tempered, even if ultimately he's really good.
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I believe you have it exactly backwards. If you have a good relationship with the fans, THEN you can be single-minded about trying to build a winner. Lacking that, you need to aim for balance. Bottom line is the health of the franchise. Right now the Twins are sickly.
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We have Jeffers now, so no, hanging on to him for two more months isn't the answer to adding 10k. It's going to take a decade of good faith by ownership to salvage this market. Jeffers is just a tiny piece at the moment. You know the phrase AITA? If the Twins trade Jeffers now, they're the A. If they keep him and he walks at season's end, he's the A. Simple as that. You and I will disagree about the value of the prospects Jeffers' two months would bring in return, versus the goodwill to the local fan base. Indeed, it depends on whether another team is desperate enough to offer enough to change the calculus - something like what Boston just traded could probably be spun positively to Twins fans. Joe Pohlad and Dave St Peter set the franchise back several years in their path back to relevance in their market, with their ham-handed PR in the 2023-24 timeframe. To fix that may require doing things that don't strictly optimize the flow of prospect capital. Ownership and the FO have to be able to walk and chew gum at the same time.
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If Neto is what you hope Culpepper turns into, then it's worth discussing. Neto's under control through 2029 I believe.
