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ThejacKmp

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Everything posted by ThejacKmp

  1. ThejacKmp
    Meh, I don't even really blame TR and Antony that much. Yeah they could have thrown him at short sometimes but I think they really never saw Polanco as a shortstop. Circumstance last year forced their hand as Nunez (not much of a SS either) was dealt and Escobar was pretty awful while Polanco's hitting forced him up to the MLB level. It feels like the same thing is happening this year - no one really wants to play Polanco at SS but Dozier not being dealt and the lack of other options on a rebuilding team makes it not the worst idea. I see no indications in Polanco's demeanor that struggling in the field is going to set back his offensive development. I guess TR and Antony could have worked him at SS but I see no way he's in the Twins SS plans next year so I can let it go. You can't predict everything and if Dozier had been dealt, I'd be wanting Polanco to have concentrated on 2B. The Twins' success this season isn't going to hinge on Polanco's play at SS. It isn't going to help but in a year where .500 would be incredible, getting him MLB at-bats is almost certainly the reason the Twins are playing a 2B at SS.
  2. ThejacKmp
    I think the issue is when guys get banged up a bit and day to day (ahem, Buxton) and then you're down to 3 outfielders, one atrocious. You want to at least have an option in the OF for those types of situations. That's why outside of Escobar showing decent chops in left, I think it's hard for Ehire Adrianza to make this team. Danny Santana could very well sneak in because he can play lots of positions poorly.
  3. ThejacKmp
    1.) I imagine Mauer will still play 80%+ of games. 75% of starting pitchers are right handed and Mauer will pull some starts against lefties, I doubt it's a straight platoon. 2.) I'd be surprised if Garver made the team. I don't think it's his job to win, I think it's JRM and Gimenez's to lose. Again, in a straight platoon (which Castro's splits make likely), he plays 25% of the time. I just think the FO is going to want Garver catching more often at least the first few months so JRM or Gimenez will be given the opportunity to start the year (my hope is JRM, at least there's some upside there). 3.) Ehire Adrianza is out of options so the Twins risk losing him if they don't keep him. That said, I still think Danny Santana is the 25th man again. The Twins will have a need for 5th option in the OF and I don't see it elsewhere on the roster. It'll be interesting to see if Escobar gets some time in OF this spring (or maybe even Mauer?) 4.) I too would like to see Buxton hit this spring before anointing him leadoff. If he struggles at all, get him at the bottom of the lineup so there's less pressure. That said, if he hits, reward the young man. He could be one of the funnest national stories if he continues his September renaissance. 5.) Agreed with Jeremy on Hughes making the team. I'm not sure how long of a leash he'll be given but unless he craps the bed in training camp, I think they'll give him a shot. He's also a long-shot candidate to be moved at the deadline if he has any success.
  4. ThejacKmp
    I mean, Vielma can't hit isn't a legend - he's not particularly adept at that yet and it keeps him a fringe prospect. The nonexistent power tool means that MLB pitchers are going to make him hit so that OBP is not as likely to translate as he ascends to AAA and MLB. He's got to continue to hit, one reason I think he should be in AAA this year. He'll face more guys with an MLB mindset so we can see if he can potentially hit .260 on the MLB level. I say this as a huge Vielma fan. I love having a top defensive shortstop, especially on a team that often eschews defense for power (Vielma makes Sano at 3B much more palatable for instance). But Vielma can't hit is a relatively valid concern. He's still only 22 and I'm hopeful he could be a big riser on this list if he can take a step at the plate but there are concerns.
  5. ThejacKmp
    I think the difference is that Mejia is 23 (and will be this entire year) and cost controlled for years to come (including multiple years at the rookie minimum) while guys like Milone, Nolasco, Pelfrey and Santiago were more expensive with less room to develop (and perhaps closer to #5 than #4). There's a big difference between a guy you can slot in at the back of the rotation and don't have to pay for several years and a guy earning $14 million a year (or a guy with a $5-$10 million arbitration award coming). Enormous may be too much but considerable seems fair. We're all so starved for top-of-the-rotation pitching that we're not appreciating the value of a solid, cost-controlled back of the rotation arm.
  6. ThejacKmp
    #4 starters regularly get $10 mill per year these days, he absolutely has enormous value. He's not sexy with upside but his floor is pretty high too. Even if he never fits the twins rotation (say he's lapped by our AA quartet) he'll have considerable value as a trade chip. Would love to see him get 5-6 mlb starts and make a name for himself.
  7. ThejacKmp
    Yeah, you wonder if it might help to tell him, "You're going to be in AA this entire year and AAA next year, no matter what. We want to work on these three things and we're not as concerned about the results."
  8. ThejacKmp
    I had such a big crush on Lewis Thorpe two years ago. Hopefully this is the part of the rom com where he storms back into my life, fulfilling all of my wildest dreams and dirtiest thoughts. A boy can dream.
  9. ThejacKmp
    Not as down on Blankenhorn as others. He has flaws but that's why he's in A ball. He'll be 20 most of the season - he's got 3-4 more years in the minors to get bigger and hone that glove and the power/patience tools. Solid #9 prospect.
  10. ThejacKmp
    Yeah I don't know if they're down on him either. I think they just looked at the 40 and said, "Park's contract and the depth of the 1B market makes him the guy we are least likely to lose. We'd like to keep all of our chips on the table." There should be space on the 40 as bullpen and backup decisions are made in six weeks - easy to move Park back on. Still likely Vargas's job to lose. The switch hitting is nice.
  11. ThejacKmp
    There are other threads on this but I feel like we didn't give enough kudos to the new regime for the Park waivers process. I know people are deservedly down on Danny San and Tonkin but those guys have some value (Tonkin has upside and could make the pen while Danny Santana's versatility could be useful if the Twins get banged up coming out of spring training and need a utility guy for OF and IF) and the Twins bought time on both guys. The FO read the waiver process perfectly and were able to get Belisle while losing nothing. I'm not sure that TR would have had the imagination and guts to do it - definitely a good sign that no one on TD even saw it coming and it worked out so well.
  12. ThejacKmp
    Castro doesn't interest me as how the battle for the right hand side of what is hopefully a platoon ends up. I'm going to be very disappointed if Gimenez is on the opening day 25. I hope it's JRM's position to lose - he's got some upside and this is his shot. Gimenez is a nice backup-backup (with Garver as a Castro-backup so he gets PT) but it will be thoroughly dreadful if he isn't in AAA to start the season.
  13. ThejacKmp
    No. He's 19. He would need to shoot up through the high minors at a dizzying pace. He's still 3 years away. Luckily, 1B is not a position of need for the Twins.
  14. ThejacKmp
    I mean, every minor league player's floor is Matt Moses. Kirilloff has a way higher ceiling and the only reason his floor is lower is that he's five years younger. Palka is already potentially hitting his head on the ceiling. That power is nice but the AAA to MLB jump is tough for someone who K's as much as he does. I'm excited to see Palka in AAA but I'll be paying little to no attention to his power numbers - I want to see him get that K rate low enough that I can be excited about him as more than a September bench bat who goes on a power binge before pitchers adjust to him.
  15. ThejacKmp
    W What else would a DH bring to the table? DHs hit and that's it. A young developing 26 year old switch-hitting power hitter who may have taken a big jump last year (but otherwise is a slightly above average hitter) seems like exactly the guy the Twins should start the season with!
  16. ThejacKmp
    Agreed. Hard to see Palka being an opening day starter for even three years, let alone 5-6 years like you can project for Kiriloff. That K rate is just troublesome and unless he can cut it in AAA, he seems like a 4th OF or platoon DH or 1B at best. That's not a bad thing to get for Chris Hermann, I'm not complaining. But I'd say that Palka is rated a bit too high even.
  17. ThejacKmp
    Agreed. Gimenez was brought in because of JRM, not Garver. I support the FO wanting Garver to play everyday in AAA and work on his receiving a bit more. I'm hopeful that JRM has the edge on Gimenez because he offers upside but I like that they have another option for backup catcher that isn't "Garver sitting on the bench most days". Next year, a Garver/Castro platoon looks really nice with it tilting towards Garver as he gets more comfortable at the MLB level.
  18. ThejacKmp
    As to the organizational weakness at corner infield, it's certainly not a strength but a look at the MLB squad shows you why this isn't particularly dire. Sano is penciled in at 3B (or 1B potentially) for the next half decade. Vargas is a nice switch-hitting prospect. Mauer is an acceptable platoon at 1B for the next two years (and if he prospers as a platoon bat, there's no reason he couldn't come back after this huge contract is done - Mauer for $5-8 million per year would be very palatable in the right platoon/bench bat role). Third base depth is a bit weak but as long as Sano can stick there for two to three seasons without being a total disaster, there should be some nice prospects coming up the ladder (Goodrum, Cabbage or one of the Twins many SS/2B prospects who are blocked). Not to mention that 1B/DH are places that regularly have cheap solutions via free agency, especially as the Twins begin to be a more attractive destination as the young guys start to mature. I'm not worried about the Twins corner IF. It's not the source of strength that the OF or middle infield is (weird to say that latter one) but it's not going to be crippling. The starting pitching on the other hand . . .
  19. ThejacKmp
    You can't judge a baseball player solely on extra-base hits and RBI. Joe Mauer faded due to injury down the stretch but still finished with the second best OBP on the team after Robbie Grossman. Grossman had a career year at the plate, Mauer had a down year. Not crazy to say that Joe Mauer is clearly the best OBP option for the MLB club this year. I know HRs and RBIs are sexy and we get stuck behind outdated concepts of what a first baseman is but if we ignore that drivel, Mauer's OBP is really valuable. It is especially vital for a team like the Twins that has a lot of pop and a lot of high-K guys (e.g. Sano, Buxton, Rosario). Mauer being on base (hopefully in the 2 hole) should lead to a lot of RBIs for guys behind him. Joe's skill set may not be worth $23 million anymore but the Joe-bashing goes way too far. Someone was talking about DFAing him on another thread - that's insane. In spite of injuries, Mauer put up close to an .800 OPS against right handed pitchers last year (70% of pitches thrown are by right handers) so he'll be a vital part of the Twins this year. He'll likely be platooned more than he has before -- and that's a good thing. He'll be less likely to be injured if he's getting regular rest and his stats will jump if he's used mainly against right handed pitching (though unlike many Twins platoon options, he hits lefties well enough that it isn't dire if a team brings in a LH reliever late in a game). I'm excited to see what Mauer can do this year if he's used more judiciously. He'd be one of my top candidates to have a better-than-expected year.
  20. ThejacKmp
    Problem is he bats left. Ideally, the 4th OF is a right handed guy who can take some at bats against lefties from Rosario and Kepler. Granite's best path to the majors is likely an injury to Rosario or Kepler (or one of them crappin' the bed).
  21. ThejacKmp
    What about option C - Grossman in LF, Vargas at 1B, Sano at DH, Polanco at 3B, Escobar at SS. Not bad to give Sano some days off in the field.
  22. ThejacKmp
    First of all, Palka is no good as a 4th OF because he hits from the left side as well and doesn't project to be a defensive upgrade over Kepler or Rosario. I can see bringing in someone better than Grossman but hitting from the right is a prerequisite. That really sums up why I'm a little bearish on Palka. Unless he finds room at DH/1B or Rosario really craps the bed, it's hard to see a role for him going forward. Unfortunately, Granite is also left-handed and isn't ideal for that 4th OF role. His splits aren't terrible (Palka's aren't either BTW) and his defense is better than Palka's but it still isn't a great fit. That's why Travis Harrison is a guy I'm excited to see in AAA this year. He mashes left handed pitching and has the added bonus of being a potential backup option at 3B (not someone you'd want to depend on but he's played it in the minors and that positional flexibility could come in handy.) If I had to bet money, I'd bet on Harrison being your 4th OF to begin the 2018 season. As for the age thing, three points: 1) I think that age thing speaks more to the quality of prospects the Twins MLB outfielders were. Kepler and Buxton came in young and moved up relatively quickly while Rosario was a really fast riser. The story is "The Twins MLB OF is super young", not "The Twins AA and AAA OFs are too old." 2.) Shuck and Strausborger are AAAA filler - 4th OF subs if Grossman went down and you didn't want a real prospect to come up and sit on the bench. They don't really count. If you just look at prospects - Palka, Harrison and Granite - you get appropriately aged guys. They're all 24 and are over a year younger than the average player at their level. 3.) Same thing in Chattanooga. There are two organization filler project types and two real prospects. The prospects are right around the right age for their level (though neither of them are very exciting to me). Non-story in my eyes.
  23. ThejacKmp
    My big thing is wanting to see more of a platoon on the major league level than a starter-backup relationship. Castro has no business starting against most lefties - I'd like to see JRM playing those days (and I'd like to see Garver in AAA so he can get a ton of playing time).
  24. ThejacKmp
    I think it's a different thing for the playoffs and the regular season. The Native Americans may have been thinking that since they have weak hitting catchers they might want three so they could pinch hit twice during an extra inning game. That's a luxury they had because the playoffs requires less starting pitching. Hard to see that being a focus during the regular season for a team that isn't expected to compete.
  25. ThejacKmp
    Agreed. I'm not married to Robbie Grossman so any 1 year OF deal is fine by me. Same thing for relievers - short term flippable deals are fine. No starters. Let's see what we have.
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