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ThejacKmp

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Everything posted by ThejacKmp

  1. ThejacKmp
    Agreed with Physics Guy. People on TD love them Zach Granite but I have a hard time seeing him as more than a 4th OF. That said, he'd be a really nice 4th OF so I'm excited for that. Danny Santana may make this team since he can PR and no one else can. There's clearly a value in having someone who can steal a base and play great D.
  2. ThejacKmp
    Santana would be the Twins only pinch runner who can steal a base. That's worth something as the 25th man as well. Wish it was Murphy over Gimenez but it's not important enough.
  3. ThejacKmp
    But if everyone else is jumping off a cliff, we should too? Signing 30 year old starting pitching to the 5-7 year contracts they get today is fraught with peril. The contracts almost never work out for the back half of the deal and often don't for the front. You only need to look at guys like Johan, Halladay, Sabathia, Zito, Shields, Cain, Lincecum, Hampton and even Verlander to see how those can become anchors holding a franchise back. The Yankees can afford the back half of a Sabathia contract (though even in NYC it's tough) but the Twins need to be smart enough to know they can't do that. I don't call it "refusing to compete for the best ML free agents", I call it "being smart enough to avoid the mistakes that big franchises make."
  4. ThejacKmp
    Oh man, disagree. The hitting core is on the verge but we'll only know after this year. If Buxton takes the step we all hope, Rosario rebounds, Sano rebounds, Kepler doesn't fall apart, Vargas shows it's for real etc., than we'll know it's here. And even then, you open a 5-7 year window with the hitting core. No need to panic and restrict your ability to sign guys like Buxton, Sano, Rosario or Kepler to longer deals by signing the huge contracts it would take to get elite pitching to come to a non-contending middle market like MN. The Twins need to trust their young pitching prospects over the next two years while their hitting develops. It'd help to be able to trade Dozier/Hughes/Santana for more prospects during that period but they have the internal options to build a rotation that can consistently get them to the playoffs.
  5. ThejacKmp
    Sorry, as random in sports, not coin flipping. I never liked Billy Beane much but he's a pretty good baseball mind who talked about the randomness of baseball playoffs. The 87 Twins were a garbage team who went all the way cuz they got hot (Les freaking Straker was their #3 starter) while the 1991 Twins were objectively not as good as the 1991 Jays but beat them anyway. In basketball, the best teams make it to the finals most years - you don't get a #6 seed going. Football is a bit more random with the sudden death format but again, the worst playoff teams don't have a chance (you could redo the 2016 NFL playoffs 100 times and the Raiders and Texans never make the Super Bowl). Baseball is a lot more random - better teams lose all the time and any team that makes it has the potential to go all the way. I'd say that hockey is more random since it seems like all you need is a hot goalie and you're capable of beating anyone.
  6. ThejacKmp
    Well hey there Mr. Negative. Let's get off the ledge ok? May had a setback but Heezy was talking in another thread about how May's surgery is easier than other TJs (repair vs. replacement of the connection). TJ has become really common. Saying May's career is over is a bit ridiculous - he should be back next year so let's be excited for that. Duffey may be better suited for the pen but he looks to be dominant there. So that's good. Berrios is 22 years old. 22. He'll be fine, even though he struggled last year. Tons of pitchers (including a certain Johan Santana) struggle when they first come up. Position players too. No need to give up on Berrios. He may not be a #1 but he should be a nice little middle rotation pitcher. Mejia looks like a solid back of the rotation lefty with some upside to become a #3 starter. That's good. And the Twins do have guys like Hughes and Santana and Santiago leaving in the next year or two, just as they have a whole crop of young talent coming up. Stewart has struggled with the K/9 but he has the elite stuff and is very young for his advancement. Thorpe has had everything go wrong that can go wrong and is still only 21 and looking to attack A ball again. Tyler Jay is still stretching out but stuff-wise, he's been everything the Twins thought he could be when they drafted him. Romero is as good a prospect as anyone and looks to potentially be that #1 guy. Jorge is a nice back-of-the-rotation pitching prospect as well. Further down the ladder, the Twins have the #1 draft pick this year and Huscar Ynoa graduating rookie ball. Not all of that will stick or make it of course and there is some concern about the lack of a dominant #1 but there's a lot of really fun pitching prospects working their way up the ladder. The Twins may not be amazing this year but if Santana, Hughes and Santiago can string together some good work, they become nice trade bait. We don't need to go get Jake Arrieta but we also don't need to be negative. There's a new sheriff in town and he has both a plan and some nice horses to do the plan with. Let's keep on the bright side of life.
  7. ThejacKmp
    The Cubs were a totally different team. They had a braintrust that had spent those past three years (not three months, three YEARS) specifically accumulating position player talent (including the ballsy-at-the-time drafting of Schwarber, a guy without a position who could hit like hell). They knew they had a market that could support 2-3 long contracts on free agent starting pitchers so they explicitly eschewed drafting pitching (the most volatile of stocks) to draft projectable position players. Arrieta was a gamble that extended their window and made their current budget less stretched but they were a team that planned on buying pitching at some point. Very little of their pitching is homegrown, it's a benefit for being in a big market, That's just not the Twins. They're a different market of team with very different priorities. Let's recognize the stratum of MLB franchises -- the Cubs are closer to the Yankees than they are to the Twins. Ugh.
  8. ThejacKmp
    The track record of pitchers signing 5+ year deals at 30 is ridiculous. Twins Daily should riot if the Twins make that kind of a choice at the end of 2016. This is not a team with a 2 year window, this is a team that is 2 years from having a 5 year window. This offseason we should be taking gambles on the next Arrieta, not paying up the wazoo for the current Arrieta. Could not disagree more with this "spending spree".
  9. ThejacKmp
    Also the Timberwolves are fighting for a playoff berth the way Leonardo DiCaprio was gambling for a seat on the Titanic. They're 4 games out with 15 to go and even if they got a good hand and made the playoffs, they'd be slaughtered by the iceberg (Golden State/San Antonio). More accurately, they're 11/15 in the West. You can rip on the Twins success all you want but using the Timberwolves as proof is ridiculous. The Twins have been to the playoffs more recently than the Timberwolves and the Wolves play in a league where 53% (16/30) teams make the playoffs compared to 33% (10/30) in MLB. The Twins have also come closer (2015) than the Wolves have since Ricky Rubio was 18 and playing in Spain. And that 2015 year (when the Twins narrowly missed the playoffs) was closer to a World Series championship than EVERY SINGLE YEAR the Timberwolves have played except 2003. No other Timberwolves team had even the smallest of chances of reaching the Western Conference Finals, let alone the Big Dance. MLB playoffs are as random as anything this side of who's-goalie-is-hotter hockey. Baseball is a different beast than basketball. Let's not compare sports.
  10. ThejacKmp
    This is a complete and utter aside. Want to admit that from the front. but . . . I've heard people talk about "the Twins not winning a playoff games since 2004" before and it bothers me. It is just too negative for my taste. Those Twins teams in the mid oughts may not have won a game but they were super competitive in those series. They played the Yanks and A's super close and lost games in heartbreaking fashion. Those weren't bad teams indicative of fluke success - they were teams that ended up on the negative side of postseason luck. We live in a wild card era where teams not winning a playoff game is more indicative of not really being a postseason team. The Twins teams from 2007-2009 were true playoff caliber teams and deserve to be recognized as such.
  11. ThejacKmp
    Two strongish years at AAA ... at age 29 and age 30. That clause at the end changes things. Those two years were so "strong" that he felt his best move financially and career-wise was to move over to Japan -- hardly a ringing endorsement of his game. The Twins have had any number of AAAA players who were strong in AAA but didn't have what it took to be in the majors. Hague is another of that long and illustrious line. Palka should absolutely 100% be ahead of him, he has a chance to actually be a part of the Twins future. Heck, if (knock on wood) Park, Mauer, Vargas, Grossman and Palka all got hurt, the Twins should move Kepler in from RF and bring up Zach Granite to play every day in the OF. Or move Sano over to 1B, Polanco to 3B and give Vielma some time at SS. If the Twins have a non-contending year (likely) then Matt Hague should not be a part of it because youth should play. If the Twins have a contending year (possible), Matt Hague will not be a part of it because they aren't competing if the six guys ahead of him on the depth chart get hurt.
  12. ThejacKmp
    Funny how you don't get stats for 2016, when Matt Hague hit .231/.339/.346 (.685) . . . in Japan. Guy turns 32 in August. If a 30 year old hits .884 in AAA in a season that is not particularly near anything he's done before, I like to think that Twins Daily would not be screaming for a promotion. We would see him for the organizational filler he is. Outside of injuries to park, Vargas, grossman, mauer AND palka, Matt Hague getting any at bats for the twins would be a travesty.
  13. ThejacKmp
    Francisco Liriano was a legitimate #2 starter on multiple playoff teams, it's ridiculous to say he should have been a reliever. To say that is to ignore that even an average starter is incredibly more valuable than a dominant reliever. You may have a point about Santiago but Liriano is terrible evidence. It'd be like me arguing that an old Toyota should go to the junkyard because I once had a Ferrari that stalled.
  14. ThejacKmp
    I'm saying it doesn't matter if he sat out three weeks to play Magic the Gathering. Kennys Vargas is a prospect with upside. Matt Hague is a non factor - it is in no way a three way race.
  15. ThejacKmp
    Matt Hague is the definition of a AAAA player, if he has even a small chance of making this team we should riot. He's 31 and has never hit in limited MLB time. His minor league numbers are okay but not great - they certainly show no indication that he's anything exciting as a 1B/DH option. He's hit in a small sample this spring while batting late in games against minor league relievers and marginal pro pitching. One should not pay attention to spring training numbers but one should REALLY not pay attention to numbers of replacements in spring training games. Vargas especially should be on this team to see what he can do - he's young enough to have upside. If not Vargas then Park, who we actually have an investment in. If Vargas and Park both don't deserve it, Grossman every day and another OF. Matt Hague, ugh.
  16. ThejacKmp
    Grossman/Mauer - high OBP but less pop. If Bux hits like last September, he should be in the middle of the lineup. To start the season: RHSP 1B Mauer (L) SS Polanco (S) 2B Dozier ® 3B Sano ® DH Vargas (S) RF Kepler (L) C Castro (L) LF Rosario (L) CF Buxton ® LHSP LF Grossman (S) 3B Polanco (S) 2B Dozier ® DH Sano ® 1B Vargas (S) RF Kepler/Rosario (L) SS Escobar (S) C Backup ® CF Buxton ® Move Buxton up the lineup quickly if he keeps hitting like September. He'd fit nicely in the six hole or even the two hole.
  17. ThejacKmp
    Playoffs I get, World Series seems like hyperbole. Making the World Series involves making it through the ALDS and ALCS where anything can happen. The Red Sox, Rangers, Astros etc. could all be formidable.
  18. ThejacKmp
    Counts and Mauer in 2016: - If he gets ahead in the count (230 PA): His OPS is in peak-Pujols range (1.135). Weirdly, his OBP is higher than his slugging - lots of walks. - If he is even or gets behind in the count (346 PA): this is where the power comes in. His average and OBP are low but he had more HRs and more 2Bs in counts he was even or behind than when he was ahead (granted more opportunities but you'd expect a bigger swing the other way). Seems to speak to approach. When he's behind in the count, he's looking to drive a ball somewhere and doesn't worry as much about making an out. When he's ahead, he looks to maximize getting on base and is more likely to look for singles than extra base hits. This makes me like him in the #2 hole. With a Buxton type annoying pitchers, Mauer is more likely to get ahead in counts and be able to create "lots of ducks on the pond" situations.
  19. ThejacKmp
    1.) Agreed that the Mauer platoon has already begun and that it will escalate. I'm looking forward to it - I'm excited to see a Mauer who is being used correctly get his numbers up. No reason he can't hit .300 if he's used more judiciously - the days off will help him stay healthier too. And even in the platoon he's still playing 75% of the time and is a great bench bat for late-inning situations. 2.) Sano will be at 3B most days but if he were to play all 162, I imagine he would get somewhere around 30-40 games at DH too? Likely on days Mauer sits and Vargas/Park is at 1B. Those days will see Polanco move over to 3B and Escobar/Adrianza at SS. That lineup will still be pretty nice: Buxton R, Dozier R, Sano R, Vargas S, Grossman R, Kepler/Rosario L, Polanco R, backup catcher R, Escobar S. 3.) I know many are counting down the days until Mauer's contract ends but I think we should be thinking about life beyond that contract. Mauer's current deal is an albatross but the Twins don't have tons of 1B prospects extremely close and Mauer is still a productive player when used correctly. Unless Sano is really unable to play 3B (and I think he's got 4-5 years there), the Twins don't have a can't miss prospect who needs to be at 1B in the next three years (Diaz hasn't made low A yet and is raw). You can really see the Twins having Mauer around until 2020 as a platoon 1B with any number of RH guys (the only real LH competition is Palka, who can play OF supposedly and may not be able to get his K issues down anyway). A two year extension at age 35 seems appropriate ($5-$7 mill per year?), especially for one of the best Twins of all time. Some of that is dependent on Mauer wanting to be here and play but (and I know this is a surprise) he is from here and has two little kids starting school in a few years. His brother is in the organization (and seems in line to potentially be the next Twins manager) and Twins spring training is even close to Mauer's FL place. The only team that seems like a comparable fit are the Rays. I don't get the sense that Mauer is a guy who needs to be an all-star to keep playing and I think he likes the rhythms of the the season. If he can stay healthy, it may seem like a nice late-career role. Yay optimism!
  20. ThejacKmp
    Has Grossman ever been a late inning defensive replacement? I'll be interested if the Twins bother to carry a traditional 5th OF or if they use an IF as an emergency version. Gone are the days of a plodding Delmon Young or Josh Willingham who you wanted to replace in the field when you lead going into the 8th. Our three starters profile as our three best defensive OFs. The future is now.
  21. ThejacKmp
    All are RH and garver has no options issues. Agreed on garver in AAA, want to see him catch a lot.
  22. ThejacKmp
    JRM and gimenez both hit rh as well. That's no advantage for anyone. JRM should not be defined by last year. He has hit before and I'd say he's a better hitter than gimenez.
  23. ThejacKmp
    Plus Byung Ho Park should be able to match last year's line for at least the next five years . . .
  24. ThejacKmp
    I like any thread that devolves into a discussion of the Thorpedo.
  25. ThejacKmp
    This. Stewart has the stuff that should result in a higher ceiling - it's truly baffling and worrying it hasn't yet. Gonsalves has less tools but uses them better. It's the old adage of the coach who watches two guys run to first in the same amount of time - one with terrible form and the other with perfect form. When told he can have one he takes the guy with terrible form. That guy can be coached to be better, the other guy has already peaked.
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