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ThejacKmp

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Everything posted by ThejacKmp

  1. ThejacKmp
    I'm excited that the Twins will be able to trot out seven lefties. Lamet's 2017 splits: .525 OPS vs. RHB and .848 OPS vs. LHB.
  2. ThejacKmp
    The starting pitching needs some depth. They don't need to go get a front-end starter (though I wouldn't be heart-broken) but this year shows that you need some depth. May should be back but who knows what May. Gonsalves and Romero and Jorge are barking at the door but not sure they're there yet. I'd like one back-end starter on a short deal (maybe someone trying to build value after injury?) who the Twins can deal if a young guy needs to come up.
  3. ThejacKmp
    They could use a better 1B bat than Vargas. I know he went yard off of a AAA pitcher last night but he just doesn't have it. I want them to find a 1 year deal for a lefty-mashing DH/1B/OF type to take that spot. But otherwise, no reason to mess with anything. Escobar and Grossman etc. also bridge the gap to your Rookers and Gordons who are coming up. Adrianza over Granite. He can hit right handed and play IF. His OF defense has been un-infielder-like.
  4. ThejacKmp
    I don't know, I feel like this is a bit dishonest with the numbers. Miguel Sano has started 79 games and played in 82 games at 3B. That sounds low until you look at the fact that he's only played in 108 games (21 starts at DH and 8 at 1B). That means he's played at 3B in over 75% of the games he has played in thus far. That's pretty phenomenal considering the Twins bench is heavy on guys whose value comes from IF defense and light on strapping hitters consigned to 1B and DH. He's far surpassed any reasonable expectations this year and should absolutely be at 3B. I have no concerns he's only played 3B in 82 games. The small number of games mainly has to do with injuries. His two most recent and biggest injuries have both had nothing to do with playing the field. They both happened at the plate - he was hit in the hand by a pitch and he hit a ball off his shin. Neither has anything to do with 3B and unless we want him to not bat, I think we should treat them as flukes that can't be avoided. Picking one number and making bold assertions without examining the larger context is pretty disingenuous. That number is not a cause for concern at all. 75% of games at 3B is phenomenal considering what we thought of his chances coming in. Nothing but optimism for Sano, our beloved third baseman of the near and perhaps distant future.
  5. ThejacKmp
    If the Twins make the playoffs and win the wild card game, Gibson starts Game 1 of the ALDS? Game 2?
  6. ThejacKmp
    Have they announced who Moya will replace on the 40 man?
  7. ThejacKmp
    Yeah but six vs. Seattle, 3 at home vs Houston (which will be pissed the Rangers wouldn't swap series) and 3 at the Angels. We just need no one to go on a run. So many teams playing each other.
  8. ThejacKmp

    Review

    ThejacKmp commented on terrydactyls's blog entry in A Look Back

    Each April I send an email to my friends predicting the mlb standings for each division, wild card winners, award winners etc. (The highlight? Two years ago I got every playoff team in the AL wrong and 2/5 in the NL wrong. I picked three teams from the AL West to make the playoffs; all three missed it and the other two made it). In this, I'm known for being wildly optimistic about the Twins chances every year. This year I predicted that they would finish a game under .500. Even at my most optimistic I didn't see this coming.
  9. ThejacKmp
    Everyone votes Akil #1 except eric . . . who doesn't have him top 5?
  10. ThejacKmp
    I think he changes it for the rest of the season? He has a hot hand and gives Molyl someone he can hand the ball to in a late game with some confidence (perhaps misplaced but confidence nonetheless). I'd agree with you about going forward into next year though, it's too early to tell. That said, I don't want the Twins throwing money around in bullpen free agency for next year. There are a lot of young arms coming up and I don't want them blocked by guys who are a crapshoot. I'd like to see the Twins make a few low-risk free agent pickups like the did with Belisle/Breslow. I'm not ready to give up on Duffey, Pressley etc. like many here seem to be. I'm also hopeful that a number of minor league guys are going to be coming back from injury and can hopefully contribute. The Twins have a lot of fun young arms and I'd like to see them bringing in some low cost vets to supplement the growing pains of young guys. Mostly, I'd like them to make some decisions on whether guys like Gee, Hurlbut, Sledgers are starters or relievers in the long term. If they're not starters (and I doubt anyone except maybe Slegers is), they should start working them as relievers. Taylor Rogers shows the benefits of doing that (and to a lesser extent Gee, though he's been used as a long man and not a set-up guy).
  11. ThejacKmp
    Yeah I want Cain to sign in the NL so badly. Sick of facing that guy.
  12. ThejacKmp
    This are really small samples and the BABIP is pretty high on the second one. Not sure I would feel comfortable making any inferences from that information.
  13. ThejacKmp
    Yeah, this. But that said, if the FO feels comfortable with Mauer or Dougie, the players will have seen them before and likely not be too upset.
  14. ThejacKmp
    No issue with the pen management. It's September and he was chasing matchups. That's what you should do in a tight game when your best two options are unavailable. I also think going to Boshers makes sense if you're thinking it's only for one batter - you save Rogers for a situation where you want a lefty who can pitch more than one batter. But the bunting. Enough with the bunting.
  15. ThejacKmp
    His past six games he does have an OPS of .192. That said, he's only struck out four times in that period. He's even walked twice. That means he's putting the ball in play, he's probably just getting unlucky. I'm okay with it, balls are bound to start falling for him.
  16. ThejacKmp
    And again, that's a stat that is going to be advantageous to players who didn't spend the downside of their career with the Twins since it's an overall stat and down years cut into it. Or am I missing something?
  17. ThejacKmp
    Yeah I think you have to look at them during the period they were here, for better or for worse. Carew had a remarkable career - but 1/3 of it took place for another team.
  18. ThejacKmp
    I mean, I looked and he was DHing a decent amount of the time, playing 1B a bit too when Morneau was down.
  19. ThejacKmp
    Yeah, not saying your stats were manipulative. Carew had a remarkably late and minor decline. But thoughts as to my points about Killebrew and Mauer being better off if they spent their last few years in Japan? When we're talking greatest Twins should we penalize guys for sticking around to the end? That hardly seems fair, especially since it's not like Mauer or Killebrew's down season coincided with up periods for the Twins where they blocked more deserving players. I think it's more that WAA is a bad stat to use on its own for this.
  20. ThejacKmp
    Now I don't know WAA at all so you can correct me if I'm wrong. But . . . Since Carew didn't have his down years as a Twin, wouldn't he have an artificially higher WAA than Killebrew, Oliva, Mauer? If we removed the last three years of Mauer because he was playing in Japan, he'd be higher. Same thing if Killebrew missed the down period of his career. WAA doesn't seem to be the best determiner here. Perhaps WAA from the prime and then we take into consideration any other time some other way? I dunno, it's hard since Carew left for Cali.
  21. ThejacKmp
    Then where is David Ortiz? Or Jim Thome? Or Paul Molitor? You have to look at Twins career. It's the only way to judge greatest player. Killebrew > Carew because he was here for his full prime. Mauer may catch Carew someday even though Carew will likely always be a better overall player unless you really value a decade of catching.
  22. ThejacKmp
    Interesting about him DHing so much. Partly because it doesn't jive with my memory of those years. Partly because it kind of makes sense - the Twins never had a good DH during that period so it would figure that there was less opportunity cost in DHing Joe more often. Benching Jason Tyner is not benching David Ortiz. If the Twins had a better DH, they might have had Joe catch more.
  23. ThejacKmp
    I think you have to look at his career as a whole. Harmon Killebrew's last three years were a rather pedestrian 111 OPS+ and his first five years saw limited action and poor results but we consider those as well. Tony Oliva's last five years were a 103 OPS+ but we include those. Carew's tailing off (still respectable!) took place with the Angels. When you look at those guys, actually, Joe's time at 1B (106 OPS+) seems relatively expected for a tail end of the career - even better if he can turn it up for a few years here. His peak is a bit shorter - 8 years at 139 OPS+ compared to 11 at 143 OPS+ for Carew, 8 at 140 OPS+ for Oliva and 14 at 151 OPS+ for Harmon. But it's not that much shorter and playing catcher outweighs that. I might even move him up #2 all-time with that peak and positional scarcity especially considering . . . Joe Mauer was pretty universally considered one of the top defensive catchers in the game, as evidenced by three gold gloves. Obviously our "modern" concept of catching and statistics is hard to apply but I think we can say that he was decidedly more than "probably above average." He was an elite defensive catcher, one of the best in the league. The stats we do have back that up - he threw out 33% of base stealers in his career including three seasons above 43%. Without all the stats, we go by word of mouth and he was pretty regularly cited as at the top of the field, usually right behind Yadier Molina.
  24. ThejacKmp
    Yeah! This! No sacrifice bunting to 2B ever (exception: the pitcher is batting and you can't pinch hit for some reason). Bunt runners to 3B with guy on 2B and no out can be fine with a weak hitter in the early innings and by most hitters in the late innings when you just need 1 run.
  25. ThejacKmp
    ERA is tied into fielding pretty closely. Tell Twins pitchers that defense is independent of their ERA when Willingham and Sano were in the OF. ERA to me is whether or not the runs that scored were the pitchers fault. When the pitcher makes an egregious mistake, those runs are still their fault in a way they aren't when an outfielder drops a ball.
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