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ThejacKmp

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Everything posted by ThejacKmp

  1. ThejacKmp
    I tend to think that the players union wouldn't care about this. This isn't the Twins getting out of paying Mauer money. They're extending his career by paying him a faire wage. If they tried to pay him $4 million, the union would flip. But if they pay him a fair market wage of $8-10 million, I don't think the union bats an eye.
  2. ThejacKmp
    I know the term seems like nitpicking but it's not. The Twins did not send $1 million to the Angels and Mariners - there was no wire transfer of funds or anything like that. They simply traded their right to spend $1 million on international players. The best analogy would be if you're at Circus Pizza and you have won 400 prize tickets and you traded them to a friend for his roller blades. You haven't lost money, you've lost a currency you can only spend in a specific system with certain rules. That matters for two reasons: (1) First of all, the state of that system. Late in the year, that international money isn't worth as much since the cupboard is pretty bare. (In our circus pizza analogy, lots of other kids redeemed their tickets for toys already so the good toys are gone). The Twins likely wouldn't have been able to use that international money to get as quality of prospects as they got via trade. (2) Secondly, the Twins still have that $2 million they would have spent (since they never sent actual money, just the right to spend money). That $2 million in the budget can now be used on free agents or scouting or a kickass trip for employees to Circus Pizza. That's where opportunity cost comes in - the Twins have the opportunity to use those funds elsewhere. It's a good trade, especially if the Twins use the remainder to sign Marte at a lower price as is rumored. They basically will have traded Marte at a high price for Marte at a low price + 2 B/C prospects + 2 million to spend elsewhere.
  3. ThejacKmp
    "Upon request by a Major League player to the Commissioner, the Commissioner may, on such conditions as he stipulates, consent to such player accepting a renewal of his contract at a salary rate less than eighty (80) percent of the rate stipulated for the preceding year, providing the salary rate is mutually agreed upon between the club and the player prior to January 10 and providing the request for consent to accept such salary is made by the player and received by the Commissioner prior to January 10." Twins not hamstrung by this at all.
  4. ThejacKmp
    Mauer isn't going to make $4 million. You're looking at $8-$10 million per year and if he hits like last year, he's well worth it. Anything else is insulting. I think you'll see a 2 year $18 million extension at some point this winter. Gives Mauer some stability, he still draws fans to the park and he can shift into a 120 games type of player. Even though free agent pitching contracts are almost always awful, I'd much rather the Twins go after Darvish than trade away assets for an inferior pitcher. In a perfect world, the Twins just go with the youth but that seems to be unlikely to happen due to optics and what not. But ugh I don't want to trade Gordon and other prospects for a #3 pitcher we have to pay $8 million.
  5. ThejacKmp
    It's not really $2 million, the Twins didn't send over the money. They traded the ability to spend $2 million in the international marketplace. So it comes down to an opportunity cost thing - are these two players (plus the saved $2 million) better than the players the Twins could have gotten in the international market? I'd argue that once Maitan was gone, the Twins probably used this money as well as it can be. Especially since they still have $1.2 million they can use on Marte or another prospect. You could argue they should have gone after Maitan two weeks ago but that would have meant giving up their one advantage in the Ohtani sweepstakes, money. I'm glad the front office took a swing at Ohtani rather than the safe play of Maitan, even if it means we are where we are now and missed out on both. Ohtani could have changed the trajectory of the franchise, you have to swing for the fences sometimes.
  6. ThejacKmp
    This is a fitting article for an auspicious day. Sixteen years ago, mayor Norm Coleman proclaimed Dec 7th, 2001 to be Joe Mauer Day in recognition of his Gatorade Football Player of the Year award and each year we remember our hero. What's that you say? It was the 60th anniversary of the attack on Pearl Harbor? Over 2000 people died? Pshaw, that's old news. High school football success is clearly more important than some silly old war! Long live Joe Mauer Day!
  7. ThejacKmp
    It's important to note that Mauer's 2017 campaign isn't an aberration or luck but rather a return to his norm. Mauer's career BABIP was .348 from 2004 to 2014. For whatever reason, in 2015 and 2016 Mauer posted a combined .305 BABIP. There wasn't anything in the obvious underlying factors to explain it - similar LD/GB/FB rates etc. I think Mauer's 2017 resurgence is likely due to health and the absence of bad luck -- though we'll have to see a solid 2018 before I'm certain of that.
  8. ThejacKmp
    All I want for Christmas is Ohtani.
  9. ThejacKmp
    Rooker bats RH and can play some corner OF so he'd actually be ideal in a situation where Mauer stays - he can be a 5th OF who spells Eddie and Max against tough lefties and be the right handed half of a 1B platoon when Mauer needs extra days off (with Sano in the mix at 1B on those days as well). He fits this Twins teams a lot better than the left-handed hitting Granite.
  10. ThejacKmp
    Ha. Lewis Thorpe as a household name is pretty hilarious. Pretty sure 19 out of 20 twins fans have no idea who he is todsy, let alone in 2013. I love thorpedo more than almost anyone but household name made me laugh.
  11. ThejacKmp
    I think we will get Otani. I don't know why I think that but it's out there. He can do some DHing too, which would be fun.
  12. ThejacKmp
    Start on the DL and get 100% healthy on a rehab assignment. Escobar can play 3B to start the year. Sano at full health is key for the Twins taking the next step.
  13. ThejacKmp
    Someone has to DH and that person doesn't have to be able to field. It's nice to have all players who are both hitters and defenders but that isn't realistic. The Twins need a DH and a backup 1B who can hit from the right side of the plate. Vargas is a cheap internal option to fill that role and should get every chance to do so.
  14. ThejacKmp
    Vargas is why I don't want the Twins to go get a free agent bat. If they're going to make a change to the position player group, I would rather see them trade Grossman (wont' get much in return of course) and pursue a right handed hitting corner OF. Vargas is too young and too cheap not to give another shot.
  15. ThejacKmp
    Keep the prospects. Spend money on a free agent if you need that impact bullpen arm. The Twins have money to spare unless they start signing young guys to extensions - the prospects are not limitless.
  16. ThejacKmp
    Oh I'm not a huge Kyle Gibson guy. I think he's a cheap pitching option for this year but if he was an okay #4 starter, Twins fans would be ecstatic. My point was more that Twins fans rag on Kyle Gibson like he's a piñata and he was a markedly better pitcher than Colon last year. Better stats, better peak, more upside. The only explanation is that Colon is fun to cheer for so we forgive his warts while Kyle Gibson has crapped in our shoes for many years and we mistrust him.
  17. ThejacKmp
    This is a fascinating stat. Someone should do an article about this (probably can't do much in modern baseball because it happens so infrequently) but it would be a fascinating view of baseball history to see who could have used a closer and who didn't really miss one.
  18. ThejacKmp
    Marvin Miller not being in the hall is the biggest travesty. If you made a list of the five people who changed baseball the most, Marvin Miller would be on that list and could rightfully be at the top. It is a travesty that baseball's owners have blackballed him from the Hall - especially because he undoubtedly made them money. Miller paved the path for baseball to go big business, forcing the owners to get the players on board to expand the game the way it currently is. It's so sad he never got to go in during his lifetime. No one loved baseball more and no one did more to make baseball the game it is today. It's only America's irrational hatred of union leaders that keeps his absence from being a front page story every election year. Ugh.
  19. ThejacKmp
    Early season Kyle Gibson. Who was loathed on TD and went down to the minors while Colon still has his defenders because we love the concept of big fat old pitcher. Kyle Gibson only got some love when he started to pitch well. His 11 games in August and September (3.55 ERA, .720 opponent OPS, 8.0+ K/9) are loads better than any equivalent Colon stretch. And even the love he got was pretty muted.
  20. ThejacKmp
    First of all, each game matters. August games and September games all count the same. He was at best an average pitcher for six or seven games (with a huge OPS against that screams luck) before the wheel completely fell off but the Twins were past any deadline and had to keep running him out there while hoping the lineup hit and the bullpen didn't implode over six innings. And I don't buy the veteran impact - that's in the vein of every poor hitting catcher being a great fielder. We make up narratives that are not backed up in fact. Berrios wasn't better because of Colon - in fact he did worse during the Colon era. And isn't Santana veteran presence enough? Teammates rarely say something awful about a guy. He may have been great in the clubhouse but c'mon, you have to play well. He cost the Twins a ton of games - way more than he kept them in. I think he's a fun story but that's it, a story. He certainly isn't a reason to go sign another crappy veteran pitcher. He got brought in because he cost the Twins nothing in terms of prospects and the name value was enough to not alienate the fan base. That's not a baseball move for success, that's an attempt to tread water.
  21. ThejacKmp
    Yeah, and I'd almost rather see them give Vargas/Park a shot at that bench bat spot. I know neither guy has been amazing but they also have some upside and they don't cost anything new. I'd like to see a run at a top free agent pitcher and maybe one impact reliever whose name is not Brandon Kintzler. Other than that, let it roll.
  22. ThejacKmp
    I am. The only people attached to their narratives are the people who love Colon. We love the idea of Colon because of his weight and age and nickname but he was a godawful pitcher. He put a 5.18 ERA, an 85 ERA+ and a 5.3 K/9. Those numbers would make any honest fan howl. If that were Kyle Gibson's numbers, people would be frothing at the mouth. Colon was virtually unplayable down the stretch - multiple games where he couldn't get out of the 4th. Those are bad numbers but even worse is that the Twins didn't get to see what they had in a young guy like Sledgers or Turley or even Gonsalves (though I support not pushing him too hard) and they convinced themselves not to trade a C level prospect for someone more palatable (R.A. Dickey jumps to mind). Colon was a cheap move - the Twins gave up nothing to get him and they valued an aging veteran over much better choices.
  23. ThejacKmp
    Myth #1 is real and the place for the Twins to spend that money is signing their young core and perhaps extending Mauer a few years. That could easily account for the payroll gap. I'm conflicted about #2. So many of the elite free agent pitching contracts turn out poorly and a look at the elite starting pitching doesn't show anyone I feel super confident about. Darvish and Arrieta both have had some health issues. Lance Lynn is more exciting but he's going to be expensive and is 31. Johnny Cueto is super scary if he opts out. I don't know that I want the Twins to go that route. Myth #3: Buxton will mature and get better at this. He's also going to naturally bulk up and that will help some too hopefully.
  24. ThejacKmp
    Not big bucks but Kintzler seems likely to get a 2-3 year deal with some nice change behind it (a welcome raise compared to his last experience with free agency). It's hard to think that he could have gotten that without being a closer (which netted him an all-star spot). Belisle is a little but more up in the air because he's 37 but he'll likely get a guaranteed contract somewhere, which would seem unlikely without the closing experience given his drop in numbers and age. Without that "I can close if you need me to" narrative, he'd be selling himself as a guy on the downslope. I'm with you on getting someone young with more K potential but even there, the Twins may be able to attract someone looking to bet on themselves for a year by being able to offer a clear path to a closing job. Baseball is changing to value non-closers more but they still give the big money to guys who pitch the 9th. Seems like something the Twins and a free agent could exploit.
  25. ThejacKmp
    Another thought is to go and find the next Kintzler/Belisle by promising someone who would be unlikely to close games elsewhere that they'll get the chance to on a 1 year deal. Since people still pay for closers, you may get someone who wants a chance to get the big bucks.
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