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ThejacKmp

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Everything posted by ThejacKmp

  1. ThejacKmp
    Days don't line up right now. I'd imagine that Slegers has one game and if he craps the bed, Mejia would line up for that next start.
  2. ThejacKmp
    Chris Giminez hasn't pitched since June. June! This team has only lost by more than four twice since the second game of the second half. That's super fing powerful.
  3. ThejacKmp
    Dakota problems.
  4. ThejacKmp
    That lineup: 1.) Wish Escobar wasn't batting 5th. Way too high. 2.) Sad Castro isn't back - all righties this weekend so it'd be nice to get a Fri and Sun out of him. 3.) Was really hoping Byron would be back but I guess it's good to be cautious. 4.) Vargas just doesn't excite me anymore. Hopefully he proves me wrong tonight.
  5. ThejacKmp
    No, you make a solid argument. I don't have any evidence - it would take someone with a lot more time and resources to go back and see if teams have gotten better at trades. I guess my point would be more that it's harder to sneak someone onto a trade who has bad overall numbers but a few indications of potential. Teams just have so much more information on their own players - they're more likely to properly value their guys. Total guessing on my park but teams that scouted well (like the Twins) might have been able to have a slight edge in finding secondary talent before teams started creating statistical departments to track guys? The Span trade was a dud (though I still like it - sometimes the results don't back up a solid process) though not as much because of Span. He's had a nice enough career since but his OPS+ has been 100 for his career. He basically has had two nice years and three mediocre years since. Meyer was a fun prospect but sometimes they don't work out. Still like swinging for the fences from a position of strength. The real issue was bailing on Span's replacement (Gomez) early. I guess we disagree when it comes to May. Revere was a clearly flawed player who the Phillies somehow fell in love with (really inexplicable, he'd never put up a .700 OPS and was a noodlearmed light-hitting corner OF) so anything you get for him is great. And they got back May, who looks like a nice set-up man or 4th starter. Those are both pretty valuable and the Twins have four more years of control. Maybe May doesn't pan out but it's way too early to say that for sure.
  6. ThejacKmp
    Three righties this weekend against KC. Thank you Jebus. With Sano out, I cringe every time we face a lefty. I'm sick of watching Vargas strike out and Escobar look overmatched. I like giving AB to Kepler - he's going to have to hit LHP at some point or else he's a platoon OF. I have higher hopes for the young man.
  7. ThejacKmp
    I think it's at the connection between luck and skill. There's no way Terry Ryan knows every player in every system well enough to answer that with any authority. The Twins had a list of players they liked in every team's system. Nathan's was a name on that list and one that they pushed in the talks. That's skill and that's process. They pushed for a player and it worked out. They do that every day and just about every one doesn't turn into an MLB player, let alone a Team HOFer. That's the luck part. You're influencing a 100 sided dice so that two sides work for you rather than just one.
  8. ThejacKmp
    That's nice data. This still puts Escobar playing everyday at 3B. That's not ideal, he's not particularly good. I'd rather bet on Goodrum at 3B and keep Kepler in the OF. It's at least better defensively.
  9. ThejacKmp
    Yes. Let's do some more simple math. How many guys who have an OPS+ of 89 over two seasons and 88 for a career have their spot cemented when they're making $2 million? How many of them have people defending them based on their performance? Going from AAA to the MLB level is an adjustment, no doubt. But it's way more likely that that player adjusts than that a 30 year old utility infielder suddenly overcoming a half decade of evidence that he's a subpar player. I can't believe this is even a point of contention. Look at Escobar's numbers. They are terrible. Get someone else in, he can hardly do worse.
  10. ThejacKmp
    His OPS+ is 89. He has some pop but only in the sense that he is a far-below-replacement-level hitter. Escobar's pop is highly overrated because he's streaky. He plays three positions pretty well but the Twins already have a guy (Adrianza) who plays those positions better and who can play a passable outfield. They also have a young guy in Niko who can play the same positions as Escobar, plus OF, and who profiles to be a better hitter (and one who is 25 and thus on the way up, not 29 and on the way down). So it comes down to veteran leadership in the clubhouse. That's fine and all but Escobar shouldn't be playing down the stretch except as a late-inning PR or PH for a catcher. He shouldn't be on any postseason roster (knock on wood) and he definitely shouldn't be in the Twins plans for next year. Somehow I think none of those are going to be true, and that's crappy.
  11. ThejacKmp
    I think that's the point. Adrianza should not be the odd man out next year. Adrianza is a useful piece - hitting as well as Escobar and a vastly superior fielder. His challenge next year should be from Vielma, not Escobar. Escobar should be up against Goodrum. And Goodrum should win to the point that the Twins are trading Escobar in the offseason.
  12. ThejacKmp
    Yeah but if a guy is younger and cheaper and the other guy is not even close to replacement level, why not give it a shot? And what makes you think Niko can't hit or play defense in the majors? Any evidence? When it's evidence vs. "I think", evidence wins. Niko has hit better at AA and AAA and Escobar is lost at the MLB level. It can't really get much worse. No idea why Escobar is sancrosanct. Shouldn't be. My guess? They like Escobar in the clubhouse, he's a veteran guy for the young Spanish-speaking position players. And when it's your utility guy, that can be a factor. Intangibles matter. However, with Sano down for the foreseeable future, it's becoming an issue. That's a terrible hitter at 3B. Escobar should be a bench guy and Goodrum should get his playing time.
  13. ThejacKmp
    I don't think you have to squint to see a win. Releasing Revere would be a win. Getting some money from the Pirates for Worley and not playing Revere would be a win. Getting back a quality guy who profiles as a back-end bullpen piece or #3/#4 starter is a clear win in flashing neon letters that you can see from a mile away. I think the issue is that you're looking for either another AJ trade or a Texeira trade. To the first, that AJ trade is a once-in-a-generation trade, you can't expect to get hit by lightening twice. For the second, I'd say two things. Teams are better at trading today - they value prospects more and they know their own guys more. Team are looking at numbers way more than they did and it's harder to sneak someone into a trade. Secondly, the Twins haven't had a Texeira, a Hamels or a Sabathia to trade. You get the crazy prospects with great players and we haven't had them. You have to scale clear win to the trade. Trading away Revere, anything that is positive is a win. Anything like a Trevor May is a big win. Wouldn't be same if it was Hamels for May.
  14. ThejacKmp
    A.) I said we love Escobar's awesomeness, not you. Chill. I've never heard someone on TD Say, "we should make room for _____ by DFA'ing Escobar since he's redundant and not very good." I hear lots of love for Escobar on here. I think its because we like him as a guy in the clubhouse and he has hot streaks that make us lose the bigger picture. I'll say, I was shocked how bad Escobar has been, I was blinded too. I've spent the past few weeks disquieted by his presence in the lineup everyday, especially in the #4, #5 spot but I never thought he was borderline unplayable. B.) You did say that Goodrum can't replace the offense Escobar provides. I think I showed pretty conclusively that that's a very low bar to surpass and that Goodrum is a pretty good bet to do it based on performance and age. Thoughts? Ceding the point? C.) Goodrum isn't going to be a star. But he is better than Escobar. Defensively, likely offensively, from a cost perspective . . . D.) We don't know that no one but the Twins wanted Goodrum last offseason. He chose to come back to the Twins - that could have been with 29 other suitors or with no other suitors. Makes sense he'd pick the Twins - they were a not very good team without a lot of proven guys on the left-side of the IF and weak at utility guy. And they know him and presumably told him he was a guy they'd think about promoting if he played well. Where's he more likely to get a big league debut?
  15. ThejacKmp
    This isn't on the same level (which is unfair as the AJ trade is a poor litmus test, like comparing modern presidents to Lincoln) but the Ben Revere trade was pretty fantastic. The Twins didn't play Ben Revere (OPS+ since leaving the Twins = 84) and instead got Trevor May. May's been banged up but that's a pretty clear winner for the Twins. And we even got to sell Van Worley to the Pirates (which sounds bad when you think about it in 1700 terms).
  16. ThejacKmp
    In line with this, with Sano out, Escobar should be on the bench. Polanco should be playing 3B and Adrianza playing every day at SS. Maybe that messes with Polanco's mojo and you switch the two but those two should play every day. Adrianza has a better bat this year and his glove is way better. Hard to watch Escobar go up there and flail away. He's just not a MLB regular and likely not even a very good utility guy.
  17. ThejacKmp
    I disagree. I love Escobar as much as anyone else but we all overstate his awesomeness. We love the guy and remember the big hits but it doesn’t hold up when you look at his stats. His OPS with the Twins is .692. His OPS+ is 88 during that span. Last year his OPS+ was 67, this year it is all the way up to 89. He has two seasons where he was just above a 100 OPS+ but that was three and four years ago - he’s pretty clearly past his prime as he enters his age 30 season since he’s not even a replacement level player. It is ludicrous that Escobar has been the cleanup hitter for the Twins of late – there should be more outrage about this. He’s Nick Punto-esque with the bat but even Nicky never batted cleanup. Defensively, he’s nothing special as a SS and is pretty awful in the OF – emergency at best. He’s a fine 2B and 3B but Adrianza is better at all of the positions than Escobar. We need to look at the minors to compare him to Niko. Escobar’s minor league track record shows a .688 OPS in AAA and .670 in AA. By contrast, Goodrum put up a .763 OPS in AA and .734 in AAA. He played 15 games in CF in AAA and 62 in the OF and thus seems likely to be a better backup OF. He’s also played all over the infield – and again, Adrianza is the first defensive sub in the IF. Outside of leadership/clubhouse factors (and we all are sick of Gimenez getting the benefit of the doubt for those so that should mean little) there’s almost no reason to play Escobar over Goodrum going forward this year, let alone next year. Escobar is not a good MLB player and he is 29. Goodrum is four years younger, is more versatile in the field and seems likely to hit better based on equivalent track records. Plus he’ll be way cheaper – Escobar is about to get a bump up in arbitration. I love Escobar but no way should he be on the Twins next year. Goodrum is better in every way. The argument really should be whether the Twins carry a utility guy like Goodrum or a bigger bench bat like Vargas (ugh) or Palka.
  18. ThejacKmp
    And now some AJ appreciation: He was once thrown from a game for asking the ump to give a new ball, one the ump could see. That's pretty amazing.
  19. ThejacKmp
    From an article about that Giants year: That would be the notorious blowup that occurred in 2004 when Pierzynski was with the San Francisco Giants. In a story that ran in the Oakland Tribune that season, Pierzynski almost caused a mutiny among the Giants pitching staff. "The pitchers arent happy with him. If they can trade him, that would be fine with me", one player said. Another called him a cancer. Several pitchers questioned Pierzynskis work ethic. He was accused of giving his teams signs to the opposition and for criticizing Giants pitchers to the Padres Phil Nevin while Nevin was hitting. I don't 100% believe that AJ would give away signs and all that. He always seemed to need to win so that's hard to believe. But if he was being shunned by the team? Maybe? Regardless, the fact that players thought he was doing this is insane enough.
  20. ThejacKmp
    No way. AJ lasted one year in San Fran, saw his OPS drop 100 points and was incredibly disruptive in the clubhouse. He was so bad that the Giants just non-tendered him rather than pay him what they would have had to in arbitration. They didn’t even look to trade him, they just wanted him gone. Giants fans hated him so much that a decade later when he was the backup catcher for the Cardinals in the NLCS, he was roundly booed by Giants fans. It’s insane that in one season, you can alienate a fan base so much they boo you when you’re a backup catcher a decade later. Against that 1 year of disruptive awfulness, the Twins got: 1) A magical half-season, two full sub 4.00 ERA season and two bad seasons from Liriano 2) 260 saves, a 2.16 ERA, two top-5 Cy Young finishes and four all-star game appearances from Nathan 3) A half season of above average (106 ERA+) from his Boofness along with a quality start in the playoffs against Oakland. A more accurate statement would be that in a straight up trade of AJ for Boof, the Twins win hands down. Boof fractured no clubhouses and had a nice season that includes a very respectable playoff start. I just can't see this trade as anything but one of the biggest heists in modern baseball trading.
  21. ThejacKmp
    That said, they brought up extra arms and an extra position player. They don't have to guy Rochester for guys who won't play anyway. It's not like the Twins game tonight is going to hinge on Daniel Palka. It would be interesting if they'd been playing away against an NL team. Then it would be a different matter due to pinch hitting and double switches. But in the AL, three guys right away is fine.
  22. ThejacKmp
    Yeah, I feel weird that his parents and ladyfriend are coming to the game. I hope he only plays if the Twins are up big or as a pinch runner late in the game. Though if it's him or Vargas, I vote Goodrum. Sick of watching Vargas take the worst at bats.
  23. ThejacKmp
    Perhaps if Escobar is let go end of this year? He's going to get more expensive and the Twins have a lot of middle infield candidates. Goodrum could easily replace Escobar (who could be signed and then traded this offseason - he has a Nunez like value).
  24. ThejacKmp
    Agreed. Always excited for a Big Sexy game but that ends after this year.
  25. ThejacKmp
    I don't like that best case scenario I'm a pigeon, the rat of the sky.
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