ThejacKmp

You convinced me to get out of bed and go downstairs and get another beer. Well played snepp well played.

Love Buesnitz. Knock on wood.

Why have Hildy face the first batter? Why? No platoon advantage.

I'm as "wait for a larger sample" as anyone but Hildy needs to go down to AAA. He's giving up way too many long balls for a reliever. Time for a chance.

Not taking it personally. Just saying that if your interest is to spark a discussion and learn, "you're not going to convince me" tells people you're not interested in them responding. They then are not likely to respond. Too many people take this attitude towards subjects vastly more important than Mauer (gun control, abortion, race) and it makes the world a worse place.

Yeah but what's your chance to score multiple runs? Your scenario works if we're talking tie ballgame bottom of ninth and need to score A RUN but we're not. We're talking high leverage situations - late in a close game. That could be Twins up 5-4 or Twins down 5-3. It could be the seventh or it could be the 10th. There could be one out or two outs. Getting multiple runs makes you more likely to win and multiple base runners make those runs more likely to score. I find it hard to believe that multiple runs is the same with those two situations. P.S. "you're not going to convince me" is a bad way to contribute to a discussion. It ends the inquisitive process and makes it about forcing other people to agree with you.

Joey Votto takes that pitch. Is he not a great hitter? Your definition of great hitter is pretty narrow. Mauer is pretty widely considered to be a great hitter. Not a great power bat but a great hitter. Never has bad at-bats, always goes up there with a plan.

Okay. In that situation, there was a guy on first with two outs. Every model of scoring runs would say that you are better off getting a walk and getting that guy into scoring position. Grossman isn't particularly fast so most doubles don't score him. Mauer isn't a homerun hitter, that isn't his game. Sano already hit a single off of Kluber earlier in the game so he's not helpless up there. You also don't know that Mauer wasn't sitting there looking for something. He might have been sitting on a breaking ball or a changeup. He may have been looking for something on the outside half and it was inside half. P.S. "Mauer hate" means casting shade Mauer's way, not that you actually hate him. These kids and their lingo.

Also, Sano was facing left-hander Andrew Miller, not right-hander Corey Kluber. So by taking the walk he got the platoon advantage working for the Twins. This criticism makes no sense. The walk was absolutely an ideal outcome.

This is an interesting way to look at things but I think it's flawed. There are two positive outcomes in a late-inning situation, not one. Getting the run in is obviously ideal. But so is "not making an out". Your research didn't take this second positive outcome into consideration. If a batter doesn't make an out, he gives the hitters after him a chance to hit - with a chance to score even more runs since more guys are on base. Since Mauer generally hits #2 or #3, that's a pretty good hitter after him (you could make an argument that a guy hitting 7th should swing away more since the guy after him is likely weaker). He should get some credit for the success of guys who hit after him. I don't want Mauer to change his approach. It works. It predicates his overall success. If he's switching approaches, who can say that he's able to continue his typical success? Hitting is about repetition. Mauer seeing pitches and having good at-bats is a great thing for young hitters - they get to see the pitcher and they get to see what professional hitting is like. P.S. I see people ragging on Eddie Rosario for swinging out of his shoes trying to win games, striking out easily. Same thing with Buxton and Torii back in the day. And yet we rag on Joe for consistently having good at bats. Think about it. When's the last time you saw Joe Mauer have a bad at-bat? I can't think of one. That's something that should be celebrated, not criticized.

In a 5-1 game in late innings against a top pitcher, I absolutely want him to take a walk. Every statistical model you would look at would say the same thing. The way you can tell that is that Cleveland didn't intentionally walk Mauer when it was 2-0. They wanted him to swing. Getting Sano up to bring the game within a run is 100% the right call. If he swung away on 2-0 and grounded out, you'd be wasting the opportunity. Putting more guys on base late it always a good idea. If the guy after Mauer doesn't get it done, that's not Mauer's fault. Sometimes the Mauer hate seems to be just for the sake of complaining.

I'd be interested to see where the idea that the Cubs would not have drafted Mauer comes from. Makes sense to go Tex but I've just never heard it. If the Cubs did take Mauer, his career would be interesting. He would have quickly become a fan favorite and one of the more recognizable players in baseball - Cubs have the national spotlight almost as much as NY and equal to Boston. He's also not leaving the Cubs as they would have the money to match anyone else. Being a lifetime Cub is a pretty crazy thing. He'd have been in the playoffs throughout the 2000s as the Cubs made it in 2006 and 2007 and were a competitive team much of that time. I'd think that even if everything happens the same with concussions etc., Mauer would be a Hall of Famer with the Cubs. That national attention would make people appreciate his peak that much more.

That's an interesting thought. No way the Cubs do it but Mauer by 2002/2003 was an elite prospect so it might have been a relatively fair trade. The Cubs were too competitive to make that trade but Chicago would have loved them some Mauer. I'd pick 15 years of HOF over 2-3 years of a slightly bigger WS chance (Prior helps but those Twins teams had some big gaps in the lineup), But I get the other way around.

Speaking of tangents that are not well developed . . . 1.) Mauer is the reason for the mentality of "good enough"? What evidence do you have? I hardly think Joe Mauer is responsible for how Terry Ryan and the Pohlad's think. Mauer had little effect on the Twins payroll in the 2000s and its hard to see how they would have added more players without him. In fact, Prior would cost more so you'd see less free agent purchases. 2.) How would what happened in 2010s have happened in the 2000s? The Twins would have been competitive with Santana and Prior. AJ wasn't Mauer but he wasn't bad. Nathan would be a loss but a closer is overrated. This seems like an assertion based on little - similarly, what makes you think Terry Ryan would have been out a decade earlier? 3.) Why do you think they get a ballpark with a roof? What does drafting Joe Mauer have to do with the ballpark not having a roof? Does Joe Mauer insist on living under open skies? I think it's more likely that the Twins never get Target Field without Mauer. Losing Santana and Hunter made many Minnesotans a bit more amenable to the cost of a new stadium since no one wanted to see Mauer a Yankee.

Oh this is not the real Joe Mauer. He'll certainly fall back to earth. But this fast start makes me feel better about him being able to replicate last year's stats. For one thing, he's bankrolled these games. For another, he's having great at bats so it meets the eye test. Agreed that the big thing is what the Twins other options are. 1) They don't have strong internal candidates unless Rooker goes nuts and Sano can't play 3B etc. 2) The free agent market looks pretty barren - Mauer might actually be the best candidate at 1B since he's certainly above Matt Adams, Lucas Duda, Chris Carter, Pedro Alvarez, Adrian Gonzalez and Chris Parmelee (the 1B free agents I located). DH has Victor Martinez, Evan Gattis and Nelson Cruz hitting the market. I don't see the Twins making a move on one of those three, though perhaps Cruz or Martinez might be interesting. Hard to see a better external candidate and internally, there seems to be a place. Depends on the money but Joe doesn't seem like he'll demand a ton and it's in the Twins best interests not to try to screw him. If he wants to play and is reasonably effective I'd see a 1 or 2 year deal for sure. EDIT: I'll take that back. Lucas Duda might be an equivalent option to Mauer at 1B. He is perennially underrated and underpaid. $3.5 million this year for a guy who hit 30 bombs last year and put up an .818 OPS. He hits lefty too so that makes it tougher too. Joe has more OBP and better D but they're not dissimilar value wise. I still don't see the Twins going after him since Joe means more and Duda is a bit redundant as a strikeout-prone three outcomes guy. But worth saying that Duda is not on the same replacement level as those other guys.

Huh? Just because no one got paid that much in 2013 doesn't mean that no one was worth that much. Players can have extra value beyond what they're paid if they perform well. In fact, this most regularly happens with star players. By stats and on-court performance, Lebron James and Kevin Durant are worth two and three time what they're paid in the NBA but because of the cap, they get paid less that that. Your third center who gets paid $5 million is getting way more than his value - that's the result of collective bargaining. Baseball isn't as drastic as the NBA because of the lack of a cap but owners are constantly using their leverage to drive salary down. I'm not going to get into collusion this past offseason but it has clearly happened in the past. Guys like Kershaw, Harper, Trout etc. produce way more than they are paid, even with astronomical salary. Mauer in 2013 is similar. He was early in a contract that was set up so that, in an ideal world, he would exceed the yearly value on the front end and come up short on the back end. The concussion changed that but it's not weird that he would exceed the $23 million on the front end of the contract.

What's your argument for him not being worth it in 2013? He put up 5.6 WAR. For context, that would put him around Pedroia, Rizzo and Lindor territory last year. That's pretty solid company. I know he played 113 games but 75 were at catcher and were gold glove quality. Definitely worth $37 million with that offense at catcher. As far as steroids, that's ludicrous. Mauer was in line for a big extension no matter what, that year aded some dollars but wasn't the reason he got a big deal. It also wasn't a contract year, he was a year away from free agency. If you look at those home runs in 2009, almost all of them were in the first five rows in left and left center field. He hit most of them at home and took advantage of the Metronome having a short field. Also, you just don't know Joe if you think he was on steroids. There's no player in baseball I'd be more shocked to hear was on roids than Mauer. He only drinks milk. I'm violently opposed to saying anyone was on steroids (ball juiced is ridiculous since it wasn't juiced for just Mauer) unless you have more proof than "He hit 28 home runs one year and never hit more than 13." That's irresponsible, even for an opinion.

Yes.

I wonder if that one base hit was a sacrifice bunt attempt where he reached base. EDIT: I went and looked it up. Not a bunt, a line drive single to RF to lead off an inning. EDIT #2: He then got thrown out trying to go first to third on another single. EDIT #3: There's a video of the baserunning miscue. Oh man, it's not good. Double down the first base line and Chavez forgets to touch second base. He goes back to touch it, realizes the other guy is chugging into second and breaks back for third where he is easily tagged out. Instead of second and third no one out in a tie game, it's one out with a guy on second and the A's don't score. https://www.mlb.com/video/tomas-throws-out-chavez/c-430918883?tid=6479266 And here's the hit, very nicely stroked. https://www.mlb.com/video/chavezs-first-career-hit/c-430915483?tid=6479266

You can carry Kinley. You just can't carry Kinley and Moya if you're afraid to use either one. Kinley can be a long-relief/14th inning guy. But Molly either needs to start trusting Moya or find someone else (Buesnitz, Duffey etc.) who he does trust. I'd love to see what Curtiss can do too.

I mean, his BABIP is 1.000. He literally never makes contact and doesn't get a hit.

Also, this would totally be a different question for an NL team. With pitchers hitting and double switches, the 25th man is super important. If the Twins were in the NL, you'd certainly see Granite or maybe even Gordon on the team. They'd get enough at bats to justify having them on the squad. Ryan Lamarre wouldn't stand a chance. Adrianza would be more valuable because he can play corner OF as well as IF.

Yeah, that would be nice. Two ways to get that in April: 1) From within. The Twins don't have this player. And even if you did, it'd have to hit a pretty narrow range. You need someone who wouldn't benefit from regular playing time in the minors but who doesn't provide so much value that you're wasting them in the majors and should think about trading them. Easier said than done and we can just magic that player into being. If Granite hit RH he might be an approximation of this (minus the pop). 2) Free agent. Youngish power-hitting free agent outfielders don't sign on to become 4th OFers, they look for a starting job or a place with a platoon (like Carols Gomez signing for $4 million in Tampa). So you're not getting someone with upside. You're going to get someone older on the downswing. And you're going to have to pay a decent amount because those guys have made money and they aren't coming back for the minimum. And if you get an old guy you likely sacrifice your speed/base running. An example might have been Jose Bautista but you'd have to pay him at least $5 million and you run the risk of him sucking. That's why you end up with the Lamarre types. And sometimes they work out. See Grossman, Robbie in 2016. Sometimes they don't but they didn't cost you much. And that leads you to the time to upgrade this spot . . . the deadline. By midseason, struggling teams are looking to deal their veteran power bats to save money, free up space for their young prospects and maybe get a lottery ticket in the process. And players who would not have signed on to be a 4th OF in the offseason are okay moving to a team with playoff hopes. I get being upset if Lamarre is hitting poorly and is still the Twins 25th guy in August or October. But in April, he's as good a bet as anybody, especially with that option that allows you to have some flexibility. I look at this (http://www.espn.com/mlb/freeagents/_/position/of) and I don't see anyone I'm sad the Twins missed out on. Thoughts? Is there someone you think the Twins could and should have signed this offseason?

He also stands to suffer when teams start to concentrate on him in film. Kind of like Duffey, who proved unable to sustain his start because teams figured out he only had two pitches and they could key on one. I'd bet on Mejia being more #6 starter than #3 starter but hope for the latter obviously. He is only 24 but his stuff isn't amazing so he'll have to figure out how to stop walking guys. Jorge has better stuff than Mejia. Mejia has had middling K rates throughout the minors while Jorge in the low-minors had relatively high K rates. Jorge may end up in the pen but he's got a higher ceiling if he can put everything together. I'd say he's much more likely to be a #3 starter while Mejia is more likely to be a good #5 starter. P.S. I really disagree with the idea that a #3 starter is by definition a league average starter. I think that's way too simplistic. The Cubs #3 starter is Hendricks, he isn't a league average starter. The Marlins #3 starter might not start on any other team. To me, a #3 is a guy you'd be okay starting in game 3 of a division playoff series. The Twins have had a lot of years with four or five #4 or #5 starters.

Absolutely value in getting young guys up too, they bring an energy. And I'm sure Mejia works hard too. Still think there's a value in demonstrating that a guy who works incredibly hard to come back from multiple injuries will get a shot. They did it with Nolasco and Perkins last year and I thought that was classy of them. As classy as Hughes not getting that extra 1/3 of an inning. Big question is: How much better is Mejia than Hughes? I think that's a fair question because we have no idea what Hughes is at this point in time. All we've seen are minor league starts and even then, we don't really know if Hughes was working on something specific or pitching an MLB-like start. I'd like to see what Hughes has left in the tank just to know. That way the Twins can make a decision to move him to the pen, where I could see him being an okay middle reliever.