tony&rodney

I think many people would agree with you on trading prospects for established good players. The reality at this time is that the increased budget that comes with adding good experienced players is not within the Twins plans as far as it is possible to guess. Now if the Twins can increase their payroll budget to the $150-200M range there would be options. Until such time other opportunities need to be explored. Practicality intervenes.

This stance is only from fans. The Athletic had another article yesterday that explained that not a single game has been lost under Manfred. The owners want to "discuss" ways of adjusting spending inequities. Numerous anonymous GM/owner quotes suggesting hope that some positive change occurs. Nobody expects games to be missed. The owners make a ton of money. Attendance and viewership is up. The recent playoffs were up 19% from last year. Money is coming in and MLB is attempting/ taking steps to address media money and its distribution across baseball. There is no appetite for a lockout. The players have a decent deal. They would continue the present agreement if necessary but will negotiate any number of minor changes back and forth. A cap similar to NBA/NFL/NHL is actually impossible at this time. I might want a cap, you might want a cap. The owners like money. They are doing better than the players. Think of it this way - You have 29 friends/colleagues who are all rolling in the dough except for maybe 2-5 people. You are going to stop the flow of money via a vote (16 or more) that sets you all back a decade with hopes you can recover in the mid 2030s. Are you in?

The Pohlad Savings Plan was predicated on the woeful state of the current roster based on their performance after the All Star Game last season. The sale in July shredded the bullpen and exposed the weak offense. I don't see any of Lopez, Ryan, or Jeffers resigning at market value with the Twins, thus the trades. Buxton is collateral damage and with high value gets traded to a contender. The CBA does not factor into the equation at all for me. I don't believe there will be a lockout of any consequence, maybe two weeks lost in April of 2027. Only a few teams lose money. The owners are making money. Fans want a salary cap but that is a totally different discussion and parity is not the owners' concern, making money is their hobby. Definitely quality over quantity. I don't believe the July trades were a disaster but clearly they were done very quickly due to a directive of some sort. The front office has now had two months since the season ended and four months since the July trades to pore over every organization's players and evaluate the needs of their own team.

The return in any trade needs to be a player with potential. Jeffers seems like a guy to keep but if Tampa Bay wants to trade Brody Hopkins or Yandy Diaz plus something (Cleavenger), that works. I think the Twins need to add a catcher or two before losing Jeffers. Catchers are rarely traded during the season. Keaschall has too much promise and way too many questions to bring back a fair return. He is athletic and so the Twins should keep him unless something far out emerges as an option. Buxton has so much value despite the past injuries that he should bring back a top player/prospect. Centerfielders who can field, run, throw, hit, and hit for power are pretty rare. Lopez is a value at his salary but the Pohlads love their money so he could be traded. If traded he should return a guy of high value (ignore BBTV). I think Boston will push for Ryan or Lopez. Ryan is on an enviably low contract and thus his value is sky high. Any team with hopes of appearing in the 2026 World Series should be offering a strong package of players. I want the Twins to get inventive seeking the best player possible if Ryan is traded.

I'm ok with that idea. What are your suggestions?

I appreciate your Mets fandom and agree that Tarik Skubal is a clear ace and the guy every team in baseball covets. That said, a clear #2 at Ryan's salaries affords all teams including the Mets to consider other expensive additions to their team. Signing Skubal next season may be an option for the Mets (he won't sign an extension-people should not be delusional about that), but he won't be traded and teams can't wait until March. I may be the only person who follows baseball on this site who doesn't believe the Tigers will trade Skubal. No matter what the return is, Detroit will not be better in 2026 without Skubal and the Tigers will have as good of a shot to win it all next season as any other team in the American League. Of course, many will disagree with that and suggest the Twins have a shot too. It is just my opinion and thoughts. I believe Detroit should load up and one of the ways they can load up is by trading for Joe Ryan.

A number of people have referenced the CBA expiring at the close of next year as the lockout of 2027. There seems to be some sentiment that the above could affect negotiations this offseason. I know this is a separate topic to some extent but the Twins are in a crucial offseason in my opinion. August and September were a fair precursor of the current roster. Some changes need to occur. How deep is an ongoing question. MLB last had a consequential work stoppage in 1994. That season hurt baseball badly, in the pocketbook. The owners make money. A few teams lose money. Who makes how much is mostly a wild guess despite lengthy attempts to quantify revenues and expenses. The basis for guesses are reasonable at times and the Atlanta Braves have to publish some of their numbers, however the books can be manipulated. Because the books are not transparent, the public does not know the facts of profits and losses. In the event of a lockout and the loss of games, the owners lose piles of dough. The players with huge salaries will also lose but the MLBPA has a significant kitty set aside to pay the minimum wage guys. The history of MLB labor issues has always been a fight over how much the owners can make. The players get a little more each time but the owners, through year over year profits or increases in valuation still make more money. There isn't a single player whose net worth equals the net worth of an owner. I don't expect anything other than a big series of shouts, accusations, public posturing, and perhaps a loss of some games in April, at the worst. I do believe many fans want salary caps, but we do not get a vote. Why would any owner making any money vote for a lockout or loss of a season? They need 16 votes. That is impossible. When was the last time a group of billionaires decided to lose money for a cause? Thus, I don't believe the Twins should pay any attention to the close of the current CBA in any discussions related to player transactions. Ryan has huge value because his relatively low salary allows a team to add in other areas while locking down a #2 starting pitcher. Dylan Cease is not as good as Joe Ryan and he will cost a boatload of money. Lopez and Buxton are also great values. The Twins need to have a specific idea/plan of their future.

The Twins need to find those 1964 or older quarters. A quick look = 20 of 40 rostered Twins came from outside of the draft with 1 IFA and one Ind. League guy.

Teams have to be restraining their enthusiasm at the thought of acquiring Joe Ryan and making every effort to play down his worth. There are exactly zero teams that are cooling on Joe Ryan. He will play next season at around $6M and if he is a CY Young candidate that goes nowhere above $12-14M in 2027. Two seasons of Joe Ryan for less than Frankie Montas and a host of other pitchers. Teams are drooling over the chance to roster Joe Ryan. Ryan is also an excellent candidate to extend, similar to what the Red Sox accomplished with Garrett Crochet. Boston paid Lucas Giolito and Walker Buehler pricey numbers to hang out last season. You can bet the farm that they are hoping that Falvey accepts less than they are willing to offer. The Mets caved because of their starting pitching. They will be all in on Ryan. Detroit is the team that should be offering up something delicious. We can go on and on. No team is cooling on Joe Ryan.

There is no way that we can be certain of how these processes work or how conversations take place between teams. Supposedly the Arraez - Lopez trade with Miami was initiated and pushed by the Marlins. Likewise we read that Tampa Bay called and offered Joe Ryan for Nelson Cruz. This is what we read but I'm not certain. My thinking is that the Twins (in addition to taking all calls, reading and responding to every text and listening to all thoughts from other teams) initiate numerous conversations and offer and discuss specific players in all sorts of combinations in an attempt to find solutions to improving the 2026 roster. Sooner is better than later too.

Is it naive to think the 2026 payroll will exceed $115M? Does it seem more likely that the payroll will be under $100M? Falvey must have a financial directive. He might be angling for some additions that may or may not come with an approval of partners, but the range can't be so significant as to result in brain freeze on Falvey's part. Either way, the decisions he makes in his 10th year at the helm will have consequences. I'm still hoping that Falvey reflects on his stewardship and makes a number of changes to the roster that results in more talent on board.

That seems to be the buzz in the media world, which makes sense on the surface. However, it would be much less surprising, to me, if the Twins traded all of Lopez, Buxton, Ryan, Lewis, and Ober than if Detroit traded Tarik Skubal. The Tigers had piles of injuries last season and still won 87 games. They have a number of players going into their last contract seasons and only $28M on the books for 2027. In two years their financial commitments drop to $5M. Detroit has a very healthy organization right now. 2026 should be a year where the Tigers put together a roster that is favored in the American League. The Detroit fans suffered enough from 2017-2022. It would a little shocking if they traded Skubal and took a backwards step. From the outside it seems like every big market team covets Tarik Skubal and thus the flood of rumors.

Clearly the fans and reporters/insiders have no idea what the Twins are thinking much less planning. That is fine with me. The concern would be if the Twins really have no idea at all of what they think. So we wait. My voice has been to oppose rolling it back again. My view of the August, September roster was that change is needed. Others disagree. There are opportunities available. How risk adverse are the Twins? Waiting out the market is not generally the best strategy for avoiding mediocrity. My patience is being tested.

Groundhog Day for Twins fans with a you pick it theme: Should the Twins trade, hold, or half-ass it with Lopez, Ryan? Will the Twins roll it back again? Can the Twins rebuild? What is the budget? Is it $110M Is it $140M? Is it $80M? Nobody knows. Will the Twins sit things out waiting for an answer of what to do and then say we tried but the market was difficult?

I guess the real question is whether it is possible to offer enough to pry away some of these talented players. My thoughts were primarily hoping to escape from the mediocrity that the Twins front office has gathered for the position side of the rosters. There might just be a tipping point where an offer tantalizes an organization enough that the combination of decent quality, some MLB experience, and quantity justifies completing a transaction. In the case of both Griffin and Clark, they may need more time in the minor leagues but their ceilings. are unique enough to make those offers. Detroit should be making an all out effort to win in 2026. I don't see them trading Skubal because they would be returning to a mild rebuild after years of losing. Pittsburgh? Who knows. Harry Ford is available and the Twins should make an offer now.

Ok, now can we have a different roster than the one from last September or is that an ornery request?

And therein lies the rub .... there isn't a starting catcher or shortstop or catcher available across baseball. There are prospects and guys a little down on their luck who are gambles who could be returns in trades. These players are worth acquiring but a Joe Ryan, Pablo Lopez, Byron Buxton type by necessity requires a more handsome return. Bichette doesn't likely have any interest in playing for the Twins unless they bid much higher than the other teams. The Twins could pull it off if they had a budget of $120M. He is a risk as well.

Really? Wow, but ok. That might be good. It makes me wonder if some front office people from another team will offer something worthwhile for these guys.

If you don't think the players you mention have any value, what team (player) are you suggesting as a partner in a deal?

Name a position player on the Twins, besides Buxton and Keaschall (really still a rookie-49 games), you would look to acquire in a trade.

Did you pull off any wild trades such as I have proposed? Or did you play with the same roster every year?

Well you are suggesting free agents if you state "invest" and there is Bichette at something like 8 years for $240M at shortstop (he should / will move to 1B, 2B, or 3B. There is J.T. Realmuto for 2/$32M. That is about it. Trades for catchers or shortstops may be available but would require moving either highly rated prospects, fan favorites, or pitching. Harry Ford might be acquired for Royce or EmRod or Z. Matthews. Maybe Ober plus works too. The Twins might add a gamble like Jordan Lawler for Ober or Matthews plus someone like Kyle DeBarge and Jose Olivares. These guesses are among hundreds of ideas. In the outfield you have Buxton, Jenkins, and EmRod. Nobody else has much value. Maybe Wallner sparks a conversation. The rotation as it stands is pretty solid. The problem though is that the defense, hitting, and bullpen behind the starting pitching is real shaky. So, in a circuitous fashion, the conversation turns back to trading from the two or three most valuable players on the roster (Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan, Byron Buxton). Thus the Twins and their fans spin around in disagreement and with some anxiousness about the outcome of this offseason. A number of people, finding distaste with all ideas of losing certain players, have reverted to hoping the September roster will arise and correct their faults becoming a fun competitive team against all odds. Or ..... as Bob Dylan said, "I'll let you be in my dreams if I can be in yours."

Don't know that game, but thanks. The $50M Pohlad Savings Plan seemed as likely as any others, but it is off the wall. Front office decisions seem so rooted in "IF" that honest appraisals of rosters may be uncommon. If Edouard Julien hits 20 HR, OPS above .800, and has a .350 OBP ...... That if gets extended to every player. I'm all aboard if all the Twins play full seasons of their best two week stretches in their career. If that happens.

It is easy to see either Clemens or Julien playing first base as the 2026 season opens. Not exactly a charming thought but one that has a fair degree of chance behind it. They are virtually identical in my mind; mediocre. The tell will be what happens with them or any others for that matter who were our September guys, when June arrives in 2026. By then an answer should be apparent. Either Julien/Clemens is performing at an average rate, at a minimum, as a MLB first baseman in which case the experiment continues or the Twins cut bait and go in a different direction. A continuation of last September is not a good idea.

There is such a fine line between the average player and a slightly better player. Most teams don't have many superior talents despite the goal of accumulating stars. The Twins have exactly one, Byron Buxton, and he has missed a ton of games in his career. Gathering talent is challenging. It seems like the Twins may be moving away from sluggers in the draft, choosing athletic types recently: Houston, Culpepper, and Jenkins. Development is crucial but apparently alignment up and down throughout the organization is tougher than it should be. Times change and unless one is actively within a system it is difficult to assess the issues. I can speak to my employment at a given time with a specific analysis, but that work place situation may not resemble my experience a decade later. Baseball is a particularly brutal business where evaluations and investments in players is fluid. One constant could be the expectations, routines, and positive atmosphere. One thing doesn't change though and that is that hard calls need to be made with players, whether it is via promotions, demotions, or release. I have often wondered how much a front office is caught making or not making a decision based on their affinity for a player. Talent wins and correctly identifying talent is a tough job. Falvey was hired in 2016. What was his plan? How much has he done to implement his plan? How has he shown learning in self-reflection on his plans? We are discussing putting in place a development policy in 2025. It is a good idea. Does that seem odd to discuss this as the leader begins Year Ten?