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drivlikejehu

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Everything posted by drivlikejehu

  1. drivlikejehu
    Statistical dominance is a factor, but role should be as well. Having Shibuya over Jones makes zero sense to me... Jones was more dominant while pitching in higher leverage situations. I don't see why Shibuya made the top 6 at all, honestly. Seems like a 'nice guy' type of award.
  2. drivlikejehu
    Maybe I'm missing something, but it seems like Pelfrey has had bad outings for the Twins more than just "on occasion." Unless by "on occasion" you mean "the majority of all starts he has made with the Twins." The last time he had a good season was 2010. You apparently believe in time machines...
  3. drivlikejehu
    Other managers already do the things you applaud Molitor for. Maybe a better way of expressing your views is that Gardy cost the Twins games that a competent manager would have won. I don't disagree, though again I would not try to put a number on it. So, no, I don't think a failure to create wins out of thin air makes a manager "worthless," any more that it makes me worthless at playing the lottery that I can't predict what numbers will be picked.
  4. drivlikejehu
    I must have misunderstood this comment of yours from a few minutes ago: "My position is pretty simple, I think Molitor was worth a win or two more than Gardy would have been." To me that sounded like you were directly linking Molitor's performance to the Twins' W/L record. I don't see what other interpretation I could have had. Even a one win difference would be huge in 24 games... 2 would be massive.
  5. drivlikejehu
    Just to be clear, I think Molitor is a better manager than Gardenhire. But we do disagree, in that I don't think we can assign wins and losses to them in a worthwhile way.
  6. drivlikejehu
    I don't know why you are having so much trouble understanding the simple concept that managers are relevant, but in a hard to quantify way. I think that's a fairly common viewpoint. I like Molitor. But to take a half step back, your position is that Molitor got the team to 12-12, whereas Gardy would not have. You have zero evidence to support this. Is Molitor worth a win per month? Two wins? What exactly is your position?
  7. drivlikejehu
    I said it couldn't be measured, not that it wouldn't show up. If you can't measure it, you can't assign a value to the manager for that aspect of his performance. You either aren't reading my posts or are trolling...
  8. drivlikejehu
    Actually, no. You'll notice when you quoted me that I said "like that." I was referring to your view that short-term luck is attributable to a manager. I obviously did not attribute wins and losses to a manager's clubhouse management. In fact, my entire point was that it can't be measured. But that's not to say it doesn't exist at all.
  9. drivlikejehu
    Logical fallacy. Just because a manager can't pull wins out of thin air doesn't make the role "worthless" or "interchangeable." For instance, a manager that builds confidence in his players may win more games as a result. But, using your approach, that manager gets no credit because the team performed as expected based on player performance. A team winning more than expected based on individual player performance is just lucky. If a manager could accomplish that at will, he would be worth $50 million+ a year.
  10. drivlikejehu
    Brutal game for Soto back there... geez.
  11. drivlikejehu
    Pelfrey's smoke and mirrors act seems like it will have an even shorter shelf life than I would have predicted.
  12. drivlikejehu
    It's also just not correct to attribute wins and losses to a manager like that.
  13. drivlikejehu
    The pitching is the issue - they have allowed fewer runs than should be expected based on the peripherals, individual track records, etc. The bullpen is 15th in ERA but 29th in xFIP. That disparity is not going to last. Either the Twins will make some moves or the bullpen will start costing them - badly.
  14. drivlikejehu
    Last year the Twins were .500 through 46 games and only 2 under after 74 games; at that point they also were 3rd in the division. Reality wins out no matter who the manager is. The Twins, based on early results, are nowhere near being a true .500 team. Some combination of improved performance and roster shuffling could change that, of course, but absent that the Twins will start losing in earnest sooner or later.
  15. drivlikejehu
    Feel free to review his statistics yourself. But, generally speaking, a pitcher without command of his 87 mph fastball and who has one usable secondary pitch... is not a Major League pitcher. Maybe there is a soft throwing pitcher out there who has success while walking a bunch of guys... you have some examples in mind?
  16. drivlikejehu
    Pelfrey has a career ERA of 4.51 and career xFIP of 4.55, so he's not one of those guys that has a big difference between his peripherals and his ERA. His xFIP this year? 4.58 So, yes, Pelfrey is pretty much the same as he's always been when healthy. Which is to say, not very good. This year he is 15% worse than average in xFIP, as opposed to his career mark of 11% worse.
  17. drivlikejehu
    Milone is not a Major League pitcher right now. I'm skeptical he will be the best left-handed starter in Rochester's rotation.
  18. drivlikejehu
    I was against playing Santana in CF last year for this very reason... the Twins are trying to take a step forward, and their inconsistent SS missed out on crucial development time at the position. It was very short-sighted, and obviously so at the time. Still, it's not like there is really a better SS option than Santana right now. Escobar isn't very good and has no upside.
  19. drivlikejehu
    Hitting .240 in AA is much different than doing so in the bigs. If Sano is too vulnerable, MLB pitchers will eat him alive regardless of his raw power.
  20. drivlikejehu
    I'm slightly worried about Sano. He hit under .240 in AA in 2013... to put it another way, he's only been a complete offensive player at the advanced-A level and below. His value is all tied up in his bat, and so the longer he struggles to hit, the more question there is of whether he will reach his potential. I understand he's coming off injury, and that may have even been an issue holding him back before it was discovered, and that's he's still young, and that you can't teach his kind of power, etc. But most top MLB hitters crushed AA, often at a young age.
  21. drivlikejehu
    I'm skeptical that the current front office can put together a contending club on any timeline. They are outclassed by competing front offices, many of whom have larger budgets to work with on top of this advantage. The Twins are simply unable to evaluate talent, either their own or in the free agent market. They couldn't pick the right 5th starter, couldn't put together the right bullpen, made numerous free agent signings that blew up either immediately or in short order, watch horrible defenders play the field and claim they are good... they are a clueless, incompetent train wreck. Even that isn't the real problem - the real problem is that they refuse to learn from their mistakes or look outside the organization (except for limited roles). So while the other 29 clubs, well maybe not the Phillies, but while the other 28 clubs are constantly trying to improve, the Twins are inhabiting a parallel universe where their awful roster makes them a contender.
  22. drivlikejehu
    Tonkin has a career ERA of 3.26 in the Majors. It's just a matter of the Twins letting him stay there instead of rostering washed up veterans.
  23. drivlikejehu
    The Twins aren't going to take Nolasco out of the rotation yet. I don't really blame them, either, though I would use the injury as an excuse to have him make a few long-relief appearances before moving back into the rotation. That would give more time for the decision to sort of make itself. Right now, Milone looks worse than both of the guys he beat out for the 5th starter role. It wasn't exactly clear cut even at the time. The Twins have no investment in him... his stuff and control have both declined compared to his time in Oakland. For that reason, it may not even matter - barring a sudden turnaround, Milone will pitch his way out of the rotation regardless. And Gibson's struggles, for a guy with a career ERA around 5.00, means that his rotation spot is not exactly set in stone either.
  24. drivlikejehu
    It's really not a hard decision. Milone is a junkballer with little upside. His peripherals are horrible. He should move to a long relief/spot starter role when Nolasco returns. Demoting May would be inexcusable mismanagement. So that's what I expect to happen.
  25. drivlikejehu
    The question isn't whether the Twins are playing well - they aren't - but whether they can play better. They are on pace to win 72 games and they are fortunate to have even won at that rate so far.
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