Jump to content
Our free agent ranking is up to 100 names, and now you can filter by player position! Click here to check it out! ×
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

drivlikejehu

Verified Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    2,284

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    2

 Content Type 

Profiles

Minnesota Twins News, Rumors & Analysis

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospect Rankings

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Minnesota Twins Trade & Free Agent Rumors

Minnesota Twins Fan Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2026 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by drivlikejehu

  1. drivlikejehu
    Oh well then, if a guy isn't Johan or Pedro may as well throw him overboard. Berrios is legit. I've been a fan since the draft pick. The guy can pitch, he is a starter, and while he probably will be a good #2 instead of an ace, that's still tremendously valuable.
  2. drivlikejehu
    The Pelfrey claim is ludicrous because he has a long track record with no evidence of some magical run prevention ability. If anything his career ERA is actually worse than you might think based on his peripherals. So far as humans being capable of chokes and clutch performances, that is true. However, the issue has been studied exhaustively and they do not exist as repeatable deficiencies or skills in MLB. A possible reason is that mentally weak players fail before they make or establish themselves in the big leagues. The population of MLB players is a very controlled one. The characteristics of those players, physically and mentally, are very different from the population at large.
  3. drivlikejehu
    A BABIP of .370 is basically unsustainable for any MLB hitter these days. Trout's career number is .358, Mauer's .346. The upside comp for Rosario would be Starling Marte, who has a .357 career BABIP and poor plate discipline. Marte though did much better in the minor leagues and has more speed.
  4. drivlikejehu
    A rotation loaded with quality power pitchers. They don't have the position players to win with offense.
  5. drivlikejehu
    Not that I'm a Boyer fan, but that game was lost on the basepaths and at the plate.
  6. drivlikejehu
    Strikeouts aren't a luxury. They are a necessity if you want to avoid the cheap hits Boyer gave up.
  7. drivlikejehu
    The White Sox aren't going to trade Sale. Speculation otherwise just shows a lack of understanding as to how they are trying to put their club together.
  8. drivlikejehu
    I had hoped it would be pretty obvious that was a joke. A FIP of 1.48 is absurdly low.
  9. drivlikejehu
    I share your puzzlement over how dramatically overrated he has become, but the problem is that other MLB clubs aren't fooled. He has minimal trade value. The Twins may as well keep him around unless he implodes or someone offers to overpay.
  10. drivlikejehu
    You are reasoning with the benefit of hindsight. The coin flips are a good example. Let's say I flip 10 heads in a row. Then I flip heads again. Was that 11th flip a reflection of persistent luck? In other words, when I flipped for the 11th time, were the odds of getting heads greater than 50/50, because I was on a lucky streak? Luck is only persistent if it actually changes what you expect to happen in the future. For Pelfrey's next start, what pitcher do you view him as? A guy who is a #1 starter? A #3-4 starter, as he has been when pitching well at other times in his career? Lucky events get bunched together all the time. The coin flips demonstrate that. Each flip is an independent event, so luck is not a persistent quality.
  11. drivlikejehu
    You don't like how I phrased it, but your comments here line up perfectly with what I said. You believe luck is a persistent quality (over limited time periods) and is something that should be considered over a short-to-medium time frame. That is the notion of 'riding the lucky horse,' as you state. I do not believe luck persists at all, not for a month, or a start, or even an opposing batter. To the extent it appears that way, it's due to selection bias - there will always be some pitchers that have a bunch of lucky outcomes within a particular period of time. You are creating a narrative after the fact that is unrelated to any real phenomenon. Sorry my reply was not rapid enough for you. I wanted to address the other point first. Yes, I think Kershaw has been better.
  12. drivlikejehu
    The point being that the gap grew by 6 during the time between wins #36 and #37. Just a random observation, no need to get up in arms over it.
  13. drivlikejehu
    Well I'm glad you admitted this is your view, but I think it's factually wrong. Logically, I can think of no reason why someone should be credited for things outside of his or her control. I don't think people deserve credit for being tall, having rich parents, or having a better defense behind them, or for getting lucky on balls in play. Pitchers are paid to minimize the success of hitters, not to get lucky. Hitters have fared worse per at-bat against Kershaw, but due to circumstances largely out of his control, opposing players have scored earned runs at a higher rate than against Pelfrey. Ultimately though, your definition of the "better" pitcher to date - which includes luck, fielding, and so on - is meaningless due to all the noise. So when you say not to trade Pelfrey because he's been the Twins best pitcher, you are really saying, don't trade Pelfrey because I value luck over skill.
  14. drivlikejehu
    I didn't say it is. You know that I know that, so patronizing remarks aren't necessary. I asked a very simple question - on a rate basis, who has been better, Kershaw or Pelfrey?
  15. drivlikejehu
    The 2014 club got to 36 wins on June 22. But #37 came on June 29. That stretch and the August swoon were probably the low points of the season.
  16. drivlikejehu
    Pelfrey has allowed fewer earned runs per inning. Has he been better, on a rate basis, than Kershaw?
  17. drivlikejehu
    Pelfrey has allowed fewer earned runs than Kershaw. Has he been better than Kershaw?
  18. drivlikejehu
    Sure that's an extreme case, so what?. The same logic explains why Trevor May has been better than Pelfrey, and how Gibson has been comparable at worst. Pelfrey has not been the Twins best starter, which is the claim I responded to. Pelfrey is the same Pelfrey. 2015 FIP of 4.14. Career FIP of 4.24. 2015 xFIP of 4.48 vs career xFIP of 4.54. Everything is the same except ERA. So any argument about how well he's doing is per se about his ERA - what else could it possibly be about? Note that I was not advocating a trade.
  19. drivlikejehu
    His ERA is better than Clayton Kershaw, though Pelfrey's peripherals are of course much worse. Who has been a better pitcher? And, in terms of riding the hot hand, who would you pick to start a wild-card game?
  20. drivlikejehu
    This is just not correct. Pelfrey's ERA reflects a lot of good fortune... he has been good by his own standards, but by 2015 we should all be over the idea that partial-season ERA is the only stat that matters.
  21. drivlikejehu
    His upside is as a starter. I stated that clearly. But there is downside potential as well. For the Twins, this isn't an academic point. They will have to make decisions based on their evaluation of Rosario. Getting those decisions wrong could be very costly.
  22. drivlikejehu
    He's not going to magically start taking a ton of walks or hitting for huge power. So, by definition, his ceiling is limited. I'm by no means convinced he's even a starting player. The upside is good average, below average OBP, average power, good defense. That's an OK player but nothing special. If you are expecting more than that, there is something wrong with your expectations.
  23. drivlikejehu
    He does look good, there's no doubt about that. But his numbers in the high minors were bad and his plate discipline continues to be bad (as expected) in the Majors. There is a scenario where he makes some realistic improvements and holds down a starting position, but his ceiling is limited.
  24. drivlikejehu
    The Twins are looking past his 0.52 ERA and focusing on his bloated FIP of 1.48.
  25. drivlikejehu
    #ABWTrolling
×
×
  • Create New...