Riverbrian

Yep I've been to worse a few times. I own a cabin there. I know the way. There are couple of different roads that I can take.

The roster is decent enough... The key is to not make it worse. Who they bring on is what will matter.

I recommend taking the formula and running the numbers to watch the wheels turn. The first thing I noticed was the overwhelming number of routine plays strangling the data. Once you notice the overwhelming number of routine plays... you come to the conclusion that the differences in data must be drawn from the underwhelming amount of non-routine plays.

I'm wondering what increased his trade value to jump start such conversation?

I remember Cliff Diving once. Jumped off the cliff and then I changed my mind.

Most policies in all industries are in place as a reaction to something that needs a fixin'. There is a Preparation H warning that says "Not for Oral use". Someone ate a tube and complained that it didn't work. Unfortunately he had to write a letter to complain because his mouth shrunk to the point that he couldn't speak.

Indeed... he does have to prove these things. Same thing goes for Lewis... Wallner... Larnach... Miranda and Lee. Castro still has to prove it. Martin does... Erod... Jenkins... Eeles... Proving it is part of the process. Julien had a bad year last year... Yet still after that bad year... After 709 PA's in the majors. He's sitting at 106 OPS+ Kyle Farmer has a career 87. Miranda career 105. Larnach 102. Castro 95 for his career. Lots of people need to prove things. He got us into the playoffs in 2023. Polanco is expendable because of the presence of Julien as the front office prepares for 2024. Now he can't even be mentioned in an article for 2025.

Maybe... But... They have coaches and they practice and stuff.

I don't know a lot about Payton Eeles. I can see that he moved through the system fairly quickly this year however he was 23 in his final year at Coastal Carolina. That means that he doesn't really have the time to get comfortable in Fort Myers so he can one step at a time it. Looking at his stats which is all I have to go by. His OPS across 3 levels (FM, CR and ST.P) was almost identical to the OPS produced by Julien in Wichita at age 23 in 2022. I also notice that Payton doesn't have to be added to the 40 man until Dec 2027 so his addition to the 40 man in 2025 would be considered more aggressive than his aggressive rise from Fort Myers to St. Paul in his first year with the organization. I don't know a lot about Payton. But he sure looks like someone who doesn't apply roster pressure but could get a spot when injury or failure necessity creates the need for his addition... if he continues to do what he is doing.

Should be? Yikes. You kill quickly!

Apparently Julien is out of consideration.

The Ole' All Eggs in one Basket plan. Even if the basket malfunctions.

Kind of hair curling when you see this eh? I was in Canada last week so I've added the occasional Eh. Most people don't understand the degree of prayer at this particular alter in comparison with their peers. All 30 teams have left on left data. I'm sure it reads the exact same way for all 30 teams... Yet the Twins have taken the importance of this data to franchise altering adherence. They are building their roster in accordance to their unique over weighting of this data. They are kneecapping development of their future players in accordance to their unique over weighting of this data and they are conducting this kneecapping in the face of fairly serious spending limitation which will ratchet up the importance of developing complete ball players... not prospects who have been stripped mined for parts. They have made themselves slaves to the template in order to adhere to their unique over weighting of this data. They did this willingly... on purpose... of their own accord... volition. According to some... I can't raise this point because the analysts know more than I do. I believe with all of my fiber that they know more than I do. They better... they do this for living. But... the question becomes... what does the Twins analytics department know better than the other 29 teams that are not programming their roster to these rigid parameters in the off-season, locking the setting and then throwing away the key until the long game is played out and you are left gasping for air at the end of the year like a carp flopping around on the riverbank. We need 5 guys who don't platoon under the template... how do you get to 7 like Jorgenswest suggests. I'd like to get to 7 guys. 7 guys is a deeper roster... it provides more overall talent when healthy... it provides quality insurance for the Buxton, Lewis physical break downs. Getting to 7 guys can't be done under this rigid template. It requires talent compromises from the on-set throughout all 162 games just to keep it running just for the benefit of any gains made by Margot facing left handers which are erased completely by the disadvantage of Margot facing right handers more frequently. It's a fundamental problem with the buildings foundation that they build upon. Yet they keep building upon it. You see it.

I said Five guys only in service of the template. I agree... I'd search for 7. And once the limitations of the template are removed... you can go from 7 to 8 to 9.

Very true. He had some good numbers in Boston in comparison to his catcher peers around the league. Yet... you have to factor in the price tag paid for a position that will only play 102 games when healthy or 355 AB's max when healthy. It doesn't matter now. Contract was signed and he will be here for one more year. We will need a catcher next year. It sure would be nice if we could develop a catcher who comes in at the major league minimum so we don't have to go back to that high priced market.

BINGO with all capital letters. Your needs change as the season progresses. The more you platoon... the more you forced to platoon. You can't get out of it. You have nailed it. You have become my favorite poster now. I have to work so hard with everyone else. If you set your roster to platoon in the off-season... you can't get out of it as your needs change. It's a rabbit hole that is impossible to escape. It takes complete commitment to the bit. It requires self induced compromise... to get through 162 games if you start with the template. To protect Wallner you need Margot. To protect Margot you need Wallner. If Wallner is sent down or hurt in April. Now what? Kepler is demoted to platoon because Margot's presence on the roster must be justified. Keirsay is called up instead of Martin by virtue of what batters box he stands in... instead of who is actually hitting the ball in St. Paul because Margot's presence on the roster has to be justified. Miranda has to sit against right handers regardless if he has hit right handers significantly better because they have to have someone protect Larnach or Julien. Margot ends up playing anyway when Buxton gets hurt. Switch hitters become the most important thing on the roster. Castro becomes one of the 5 guys. You have built an unmovable object in the off-season. You have to adjust to the template not to the context of what the hell is actually happening with individual players. The unmovable object template that you built in the off season controls the adjustments that you can make... and adjustments are always necessary. Does Julien need to be sent down? Does Wallner? Kirilloff? Does Martin a right hander now have platoon with Margot because you are out of left handed options? Does Camargo have to be a third catcher and gather dust because Jeffers is all of sudden needed to be the DH vs Left Handers? Is Margot 0 for 30 pinch hitting? Is Farmer in a 4 month slump? Is Kepler in a 4 month slump? Does Correa have plantar fasciitis in his third leg? The template overrules everything over 162 games until it runs out of parts to feed it. When you run out of parts to feed it.... And then all of sudden you have Wallner facing Framber Valdez in late September or the playoffs should you manage to survive your self imposed limitations and get that far. OK... Maybe Helman is now starting against Framber because you have starved Wallner all season long in service of the object you built. It has taken a sensible data point and abused it to the point of something to over come. A glass of wine nightly is good for you... 5 bottles of wine a night is not. I'm hoping that the Twins are able to just stop building the roster to the strict inflexible parameters of this process. Just abruptly stop doing it... much like they abruptly stopped with the strict interpretation of the third time through order data point for starting pitchers in 2022. That legit data point became the dominant metric and it controlled a season long philosophy in 2022. They took a legitimate data point overweighted it's value beyond what other teams do with the same data to the point making useful information useless. They just stopped doing that. Can they stop doing this? Is an intervention followed by rehab necessary?

It's like Mike Sixel says... It's a dial not a switch. I'm not even anti-platoon. All teams platoon and I recognize this. Right now... I'm just asking that they stop with the template. I'm asking that they don't spend limited budget on specialists in order to keep the template intact. Because the template requires sacrifice to maintain over the course of a season. I'm saying that the combination of money spent on Farmer and Margot to serve as short siders while using up two precious roster spots could be combined into one player. Combine the money spent (maybe add some more cash to it) to acquire a single player who makes more sense for one of the 5 guy spots than Castro or Santana. One better player... one roster spot used instead of two roster spots to cover one spot in the lineup. . Wallner? I'd give him one of the top 5 spots. I don't like the strikeouts but he is simply one of our best 5 players because he does damage when he hits the ball to the tune of an .895 OPS. Will facing left handers drive the strikeouts higher? Probably... maybe not... maybe he improves his strikeout rate against righties and the addition of lefties equalizes it. Will facing left handers drive the OPS down? Probably. But .895 is a nice start... he's got some room to come down if he comes down. Triston Casas has a high strikeout rate. Oneil Cruz has a high strikeout rate but they also hit the ball very very hard. Here's another question... will increased exposure to lefties help Wallner improve his OPS against lefties? Improve it from .600 to .700 or .750... I don't know but I'm going with... it might. Exposure can do that. Which is better than locking him in by denying exposure. We don't have to lock him in at .600 against left handers for the slight advantage in one AB in the 5th inning of game 35 in May. And that adds another consideration... You don't know what you need until you need it. If you deny Wallner for two years... deny him in 2025 in April, May, June, July. If you deny him consistently... do you have to deny Erod being the call up when Buxton gets hurt in August or September? You may have to because Erod becomes that extra lefty that you can't protect. You can only protect 3 of them due to roster limitation. So calling up Erod to replace Buxton... is going to all of sudden force Wallner into a role that you have denied him and it's going to happen in crunch time instead of game 35 in May. Ultimately... I have these concerns about the development of a Wallner or Erod and Jenkins in the future when they hit the shore... but that is just one issue with the template that I have. The worse problem with the template is the requirement to spend 10 million plus that we don't have... just to commit two or three roster spots to specialists that will just end up facing more right handers that they are not special at because our top 3 guys can't stay on the field. If Buxton needs the day, week or 2nd half off... Wallner or Larnach isn't his replacement in the lineup... They are already in the lineup against the right handed pitcher. It's Margot or Farmer who faces Wacha because that is all you have on the roster. I'd rather they combine that limited money and get one guy for the 5 Guy Spots or at the very least focus that limited available money on someone who specializes with the 75% rather than the 25%. In order to do that. You might add a left handed hitter bringing us to more than we can protect and someone will now have to face them. It doesn't require 13 left handers... It just requires adding more than can be protected. Which can give you better odds against the 75% instead of the 25% even if only incremental improvement... it's improvement toward the majority instead of the minority. Think about this String and I know you know this because you pay attention to these things. There were multiple times last season that we had all 9 spots in the batting order in the right handed batters box against a left handed starter. We focused on this in the off-season and we we were able to load up against the lefty. We don't have this type of platoon advantage against Right handed pitchers. That's backwards. Add more lefties. Cleveland for example has more left handed hitters than they can hide. The Orioles have more left handers than they can hide. Cleveland can send 8 batters into the left handed batters box against right handers. Cleveland is better off against the 75%... We went after the 25%... we can send up 9 against the left hander. The splits are real... We played the split wrong. We have it backwards. Baltimore and Cleveland are showing us that it's OK to have extra left handers. More than you can protect. It's OK... They didn't need 13 of them.

Thank you for not being abusive in your response. Buxton, Correa and Lewis are the top 3 of the five. They are all we have in the five at this current moment. The question is... who are the two that will join them. Those three require maintenance days when healthy but if healthy they are in the lineup against left and right handers. Lewis if healthy doesn't require a platoon. Buxton if healthy doesn't require a platoon... Correa if healthy doesn't require a platoon. You need 5 who don't require a platoon. Those 3 unfortunately most likely won't stay healthy all year and therefore are going to require your hired short side specialist to fill a top 5 role when they go down during the season because our left handers are not eligible for such duties. I think I understand your point but it's possible that I don't. Are you suggesting that it's not realistic to have a roster entirely made up of above average against right handers? I agree that it's not realistic. But... you can improve against right handers. However... you can guarantee that you won't improve against right handers if you purposely spend millions from a limited budget on Margot and Farmer who struggle against right handers using up limited roster space in the process. And then continue to spend limited millions and spend limited roster space on their look a likes in the following years because you will have to just to purpurate the template of hiding the young lefties from the lefties. I have said that I'm not looking for 13 left handers. I'm hoping you understand that. You keep implying that I'm saying that... I'm not.

I did exclude the catchers because they seem to have their own rotation. However... I do admit that this is also wishful thinking on my part because there was a stretch last year where Jeffers was the short side platoon at the DH position in addition to his catching split with Vazquez. If Jeffers slides into that role this year. The Twins can then accommodate protection for a 4 left handed hitter on the roster. You know... in case Erod or Jenkins get the call. As our Joc Pederson ceiling development program cranks up even more. I do not hold your optimism for Correa, Buxton or Lewis health. At the very least... if we did get extended health out of any of those three... there will at least be maintenance days but I do admire the optimism. Grichuk turned down the 6 million dollar mutual option with the D-Backs. He is either looking for a two year deal or a full time gig at age 33. Probably both. If the Twins sign Grichuk. It won't be for full time duty. It will become full time duty during stretches of the year. It would signify to me that the template is still controlling the roster construction of our club. It would signify the willingness to commit almost their entire available limited shopping budget to the template. Much like they did this past off-season. It would signify the willingness to pay 6 million blowing most of the budget on a vet who flashed up to 140 OPS+ in 279 heavy platooned AB's at age 32 after 104, 93 and 87 ops+ in 471, 538 and 585 not platooned AB'S in the three years prior. Refsnyder isn't available. Grichuk would be the short side Refsnyder, Margot type specialist that the club is probably looking for but shouldn't be. Grichuk shouldn't be on any wish list. He would be perpetuation. We will be looking for a Grichuk this year and the year after and the year after that and the year after that and the year after that. We will need to find a Margot, Grichuk or Garlick every single year because Erod and Jenkins can't fill the Grichuk space. Jenkins will never be Juan Soto. Randal Grichuk types will guarantee it.

Mama says that Alligators are ornery because they got all them teeth but no toothbrush.

When I look at what we have in our pocket. Who we have in one hand and what we can spend in the other hand. I'm not sure what can be done. In my mind the off-season will be bone breaking chaos or it will be grab a pillow and wake up in late March and miss very little off-season action. I don't see middle ground. My expectations are low. If they simply blow up the 3 left handers/3 short side right handers template I'll be happy. I'll consider that progress. If they don't bother signing specialists and have honest to god competition for playing time with the players on the roster. I'll be happy. No innings eaters. No spending low dollar millions on right handed hitters who can't hit right handers. No left handers in the bullpen who can only get left handers out and develop the youngsters because they are the ones who will help get out of this boat.

The Math is pretty easy. If the Twins spend around 130 Million a Year. If you forget about the 40 man for simplification and just focus on 26 roster spots. 130 Million divided by 6 is 5 Million. For each roster spot you can spend an average of 5 million dollars. You can fill the team with Santana's and Chris Paddacks at 5 million per. But... But... If you want to roster upper level veterans like Correa, Lopez, Buxton and Vazquez. That's about 76 million on those 4 players. 130 Million minus 76 million = 54 Million 26 players minus 4 players = 22 54 million divided by 22 = 2.45 million That's it... You have 22 spots to staff at an average of 2.45 million. 2.45 million will buy you crap out of the veteran pile. It will buy you a team full of Michael Tonkin types. Now factor in the Arb Eligible Guys - No longer rookies but guys who have shown a little something. We have 11 of those and they will cost about 33.3 million this year. 54 million minus 33.3 million = 20.7 million 22 spots minus 11 Now you have 11 spots to fill with 20.7 left and you are down to 1.88 million per. Next time you want to complain about rookies. Do the Math. It shouldn't take someone very long to realize that not only are rookies making the minimum about the only thing you can do... but perhaps the most important thing you do. Instead of complaining about them over and over again... I take the opposite approach... I full throatedly cheer them on because I've done the math and I know without a shadow of a doubt... those young players are the only thing that can save us.

No... Not true at all. Not even close. Players with options who struggle are sent down. Some are even sent down if they did not struggle. If they are not sent down... Celestino was someone who hung around while struggling. The only one of the group you list who got an extended run while struggling. It was because the injured list was full of the guys that you like. The minors are indeed for developing players. However... There is a clock on that. Once they hit the 40 man and... eventually the players that you want to keep will have to be added to the 40 man. Clubs can't just hold players in the minors forever. Once they hit the 40 man... they will need that major league development... but... what they really need is the opportunity to compete. A chance to be just as good or better than that Vet who can't be sent down and hitting .200. Then once you develop a player and you pay him the major league minimum... instead of 4 million here and 4 million there and 4 more million over here and 4 more million over there. You have some money left over that you can spend on a player that has actual game changing ability.

The data says don't give up the out. I can't argue with that. You only get three outs per inning... giving up the out via the bunt may increase the odds of one run but it will severely decrease the odds for a crooked number and crooked numbers win ball games. So I'm fine with the low bunting totals. However... Here is what I'm not fine with... and actually kind of pissed off about. The Twins went the entire season not bunting. Extremely rare occasions... Rare and I mean rare occasions did they lay one down. And then... ALL OF SUDDEN with the season on the line. Needing wins in the last week of the year with the playoffs on the line. They start laying down the bunts in desperation. They executed 10 successful sacrifices all season long. Last week of the season... here comes the bunts. IF YOU ARE GOING TO BUNT WITH THE SEASON ON THE LINE... OR BUNT IN THE PLAYOFFS. It kind of suggests that Bunts can be useable in the chase for a W. After all... they really needed W's that week and they start whipping them out like a bear coming out of hibernation. If that's the case... If you are going to bunt in the playoffs. BUNT IN APRIL... BUNT IN MAY... BUNT IN JUNE... BUNT in JULY... BUNT IN AUGUST... Then maybe you won't look so ridiculous trying to bunt in September or October.