Riverbrian

This is how it works when you are signing one year contracts to fill holes temporarily. You'll need the same every year because the hole is never filled long term. When Margot goes away... they find another Margot. When Santana goes away... they find another Santana. The presence of Margot blocks in-house longer term solutions which brings them right back to this same need every year. We had the same revolving door at SS until they signed Correa long term. Now... it's reasonably certain that they won't be signing big name free agents. They also won't be trading prospects for big name guys with expensive contracts for the same reason they won't be bringing expensive free agents. Is this a failure? The truth is... It's what they have intended to do to manage budget constraints. This makes them successful doing what they intended to do. Should they do it this way. I don't believe so.

If the entire team stays healthy for the entire year. It won't... it never does but if it does (which it won't) and if all 13 players actually deserve every day playing time. Everyone is playing well and nobody goes in the tank for an extended time. Which won't happen because every year multiple players unexpectedly go in the tank. If you had 13 deserving players who have earned every day time and they somehow remained injury free for 162 games and you decided to disperse playing time equally (which you wouldn't do anyway). Taking out the two catchers committed to the one catcher spot. Here is the math. 162 games times 8 positions divided by 11 players equals 117.8 games per player. 118 games out of 162 will equate to roughly 5 games out of every 7. The math above is solely to provide a framework for what it would take to play everyone equally under the conditions of having 11 players with above average talent all remaining healthy and playing well. This of course won't happen because of injuries and unexpected poor play but if it did (It won't). 5 games out of 7 is decent playing time for everyone. Now... If the impossible happens... if everybody stays healthy for the entire year and everybody plays equally well creating the need for everyday playing time for all. We are not going to care if Correa is only playing 5 games out of 7 because it won't matter who else is playing instead because they are also playing well. Just framework to ease your too many players concerns. None of this will ever happen. We know that the Twins will commit 6 players to the platoon system leaving only 5 players who will get every day playing time and 3 of those 5 are frequently hurt.

The Thumbs down was a nice touch. OK. I now understand the tone of this discussion. Let me help you out. I understand what is super utility and what is just plain ole' utility. I can tell you exactly how many players in baseball played multiple positions last year across all 30 teams. I understand Baez under Joe Maddon and Baez with the Tigers. I understand Tommy Edman. I also understand the utilization tendencies of teams like the Dodgers, Twins and Rays and can compare them to how the Braves tend to shy away from such things. If you don't understand that I understand how Castro was utilized last year with a team that I watched nearly every inning of nearly every game and posted acres of real estate on this website about his utilization. I really can't help you but it seems to have led you to feeling the need to attack someone who was actually agreeing with you and you did so in an elementary fashion. Let me help you out. I read your post. You typed "he had never been deployed as a utility guy until the Rays decided to see how it worked, and Rosario was a disaster in the outfield". I was agreeing with you. The Rays preferred Walls and Cabellero at SS. Rosario wasn't good enough to be a starter so... they utilized him in a utility role. Not just the Rays. The Dodgers in the 12 games that he wore Dodger blue. He got into 5 with 3 of them in the starting lineup. He played two games at SS, 2 at 2B and 1 at 3B. He had a utility role because he wasn't good enough to be a starter. I was agreeing with you. After the Dodgers released him for nothing. The Reds picked him up. He played ZERO Games at SS. He played 11 games as a DH, 6 in RF and 4 at 2B. He wasn't good enough to be a starter so... he did the utility dance in Cincy as well. Do you get it? I was agreeing with you. Yet since you think my agreeing with you was nonsense. You opened that door... So OK... here ya go. You condescendingly directed me to a b-ref definition of utility as if it was some bible verse that I need to familiarize myself. You touted b-ref as "a fairly trustworthy source of baseball information?" like you threw down a trump card while in your previous post (quoted above) you literally label B-Refs preferred defensive zone rating metric (DRS) while you state that you prefer UZR/150. Did you actually mean to infer that I should just hang out here in the elementary school while you have the ability to pick and choose as you please or did I read that wrong? And while we are on the subject. I wouldn't have mentioned this because I was trying to agree with you. Since that doesn't matter in your world. You do realize that in your attempt to diminish the utility value of Amed Rosario (which I'm ok with because I agree with you) you actually said "My preferred advanced metric because it's much more stable than the other two, and it projects over a full year". And then you circled his year by year OZR/150 numbers which show the stability at the SS position of: 2021 1.6 2022 6.8 2023 -4.4 2024 12.0 And then you proceed to breakdown the small sample size numbers of 18 games 123 innings in CF played with Cleveland in 2021 and compare them with his work in the corner OF which was 6 games and 45 Innings in left field with Cleveland in 2022 along with 1 game and 3 innings of work in left field with the Mets in 2019. His right field work was 26 games for 183.1 innings all last year with Tampa and Cincy. You literally did analysis on those small samples. Listen... I was trying to agree with you and I'm going to assume that you know that sample size is critical when it comes to stabilizing zone metrics. You need a large sample or it don't mean much because of the high percentage of routine. I'm also going to give you the benefit of the doubt that you understand what UZR/150 does is extrapolate that 18 game small sample UZR until it's 150 games worth. I assume you understand that it takes an unstable small sample and multiplies it. What I don't understand: Why are you trying to tear him apart as a utility option defensively using an 18 game small sample 3 years ago extrapolated to 150 games claiming it's stability while you proudly post year to year unstable numbers over a much larger sample size at the SS position. And then... then... you circle it. Never Mind... I was trying to agree with you. He isn't good enough.

Good Post I'll high five you on the final sentence when you say both options are bad. That is the probably likely outcome in my opinion but I'll stick with I don't know and I'll add that in a small measure and small measure only... I'm at least willing to give Helman the benefit of the doubt where Rosario doesn't get that benefit. I'll just say this... Helman while most likely not a good option in the end is at least a better option over Rosario for these reasons: 1. Helman has options and can be sent down with ease if he is indeed a bad option. Even released with probably no consequence to the future of the Twins. 2. Helman instead of Rosario keeps the vein clogging presence of Rosario off the roster and out of the system. That is ultimately what is most important to me. Keeping Rosario off the roster period. I'll give you Mr. or Mrs. DJL44 a roster spot over Rosario 8 days a week even if I knew that you were going to strike out every single time you stepped up to the plate. Why would I choose you... as is... whoever you are... over Rosario. Because I can get rid of you. With 6 years of service time. Rosario will just stick around and act as Cholesterol in the heart of the development system. Much Like Margot, Gallo, Morrison required something from the Statin class of medication. That's what is most important to me. In the end... I don't care about Helman right now. Much like I didn't worry all that much about Rooker back then. I don't know, the front office doesn't know... But, if Helman shows up in Sacramento after no opportunity with us and his OPS's is .650 as projected by collective analysis or if he produces higher OPS somehow someway. I'll connect those dots to the moment that the Twins chose 1 year of Rosario at .670 OPS instead. My criticism won't be that we lost Helman... it will be that we kept Rosario. Keep in mind, Helman and all of the other young players in the system fighting for an opportunity don't have to perform like Rooker did to justify their selection over someone like Rosario... They don't even have to perform better than Carlos Santana for that matter. Helman, Keirsay, Martin, Miranda, Larnach, Wallner, Erod, Jenkins, Julien, Keaschall... Whoever is affected by Rosario utilization. All they need to do is perform equal or .001 percentage point better than the low bar that Rosario brings to town. Two million dollars not spent on a low bar plus a roster spot used on someone who might be back next year and the potential to get better makes it a win before you even calculate the stats. We develop or we die. Free Agency is not our friend.

Nonsense? Be careful here! I can respond in kind if you'd like. Your Call. How do you want this conversation to proceed? I wasn't even arguing your post when I responded to it. I was responding to your post which was responding to someone else's use of the term utility. I was also objecting to the term albeit for different reasons. Now... what type of attitude do you want me to use in response to your "Nonsense" post. Would you like to try again? Let me know. I can go either direction.

Again You are using Helman for a bench mark not I. However... Since Helman is your guy. Out of curiosity... How does an .800 OPS translate to a 650 OPS in MLB. Is there some sort of translation converstion chart out there. Aaron Judge had a .842 career minor league OPS, a .781 AAA OPS over .689 PA's and a 1.010 Major League Career Number. Willy Adames has 864 PA's in AAA with a .777 OPS and a .766 MLB career that was .794 last year. Luis Arraez had a .757 OPS in 359 PA's in AA. Just 82 PA's in AAA for .782 OPS and a .790 Career OPS in the Majors. Royce Lewis has a career .769 minor league OPS and a career .825 OPS. Matt Wallner has career .896 in the minors and a career .866 in the majors. Trevor Larnach has a .838 OPS in the minors and a career .726 in the majors. Are there different translation charts? However to be clear... You are using Helman for a bench mark... I want everyone to know that I am not using Helman as a bench mark... you are. I'm yelling about the fundamental problem that will repeat itself over and over again when you keep filling roster spots with specialists like Amed Rosario. Amed Rosario will be gone next year after a so-so year at best and we will be searching for the next one next year to have a so-so year at best. While the Rooker's or Helman's crash and burn against the clock. Many say that job #1 for every front office is winning championships. OK it is... But Job #1 of every front office to help them in that regard is this: Increasing the value of your players. If you increase the value of your players they can either help you directly or they bring back more in trades with other clubs which indirectly helps you win baseball games. Amed Rosario will not increase in value. Amed Rosario will only block the potential increase in value for Wallner, Larnach. Amed Rosario or his specialist look alikes that follow him will only block the potential increase in value for Erod and Jenkins. Choosing a Garlick makes it much easier to lose a Rooker. It's not who we lost... it's who we lost them for. It's the spinning of the wheels and the mud left behind.

Thanks for the FYI, Not sure I needed that but thanks nonetheless. 1. I don't know what Helman is or could be. I won't pretend to. I'm not pretending to. I'm not even saying that Helman specifically is the 26 man choice over someone like Rosario. I honestly don't know. I'm just against Rosario and generally for players with a chance for actual development instead. 2. I'm saying that the rostering of players like Rosario is a fundamental roster construction problem that will feed itself into a monster that needs to repeat itself year over year. I'm saying it's a solution that usually doesn't fix the short term problem it is designed to fix and it stops dead longer term solutions that could to stop this train. 3. But... If I must use Helman as the benchmark because you are using him as the benchmark. Helman has 10 Major League PA's compared to Rosario's 3,713. If you know what Helman is based on 10 Major League PA's. OK... I'll bow to your evaluation powers. However, I hope you forgive me if I don't trust your assessment just yet. I certainly don't trust mine. 4. I'm saying that losing a Rooker happens... I agree but this is how it happens or at least this makes it much more likely that you will lose a Rooker. It's not that we lost Rooker... It's who we kept or signed instead. We didn't just lose Rooker (which happens) we kept players who were out of baseball shortly afterwards instead. If we sign Rosario and give him a roster spot. We are just signing Belisle instead of handing the ball to Nick Anderson all over again. We are just wasting a roster spot on a specialist and have done nothing for the future of this club for the purpose of carrying a player for a year come hell or high water who will be gone next year, A player who typically hits average to slightly above average vs lefties for 150 AB's and hits well below average against righties for 180 AB's. 5. This team either develops or it dies. Pete Alonso isn't coming and Amed Rosario isn't Pete Alonso.

Most who use the term utility don't notice that it really means... NOT GOOD ENOUGH TO BE A STARTER. If you are not good enough to be a starter. You have to play multiple positions if you want to play and presto... just like that... by magic... you are now a utility player. There are 7 positions (minus pitcher and catcher) to cover. On the 26 man roster there are only 3 NON-STARTERS (minus catcher). There isn't the roster space to have a specific backup 2B to backup the designated starting 2B or a specific 3B or a specific backup SS. The non-starter has got to cover multiple positions so he becomes utility regardless if they are good at the positions or not. if the player can add some OF... better still... more avenues to playing time for the NON-STARTER. It's is isn't hard to notice how many players that are not good enough to be a starter have a utility resume. It simply becomes a necessity. If the Twins sign Rosario... they are shopping in the utility aisle but actually shopping in the NOT GOOD ENOUGH TO BE A STARTER aisle at the super market and this will make him utility regardless if he's good at it or not When they traded for Margot... they were shopping in the NOT GOOD ENOUGH TO BE A Starter aisle at the super market. When they replace Rosario next year... they will be shopping in the Not good enough to be a starter aisle. This is the reality of this discussion. The Twins are looking for dented cans. And they will end up giving this dented can 300 plus AB's.

The Unknown... Austin Martin or any younger player has the ability of taking their experiences and raising the bar. They are still controllable with options. The known player Rosario has the ability of taking their experiences and playing for somebody else next year. Where is that raffle drum... I'll reach my hand into it.

Martin is a loser bet so let's take the guy who is a proven loser bet. It's not even a bet because he has proven it... however... I guess there is value in the experienced loser because we know for sure what we are going to get.

Yep... and there we are... Down 1 Run in the 9th inning... you could cut the tension with a knife. Right Handed Closer X on the mound. The low percentage play of Margot coming to the plate because Trevor is no longer an option. You and I both know that Trevor is a much better choice to square off against Liam Hendricks at the end of the game when there is no tomorrow but he was taken out in the 5th with a 6th inning, 7th, 8th and 9th inning tomorrow. Lifted for a pinch hitter with the bases empty in a tie game with 4 innings to play to avoid the left hander who will pitch one inning. This year... It won't be Margot and his 0 for 3 million pinch hitting. This year it will be the Margot replacement of possibly Rosario and the year after that it will be Rosario replacement. And the year after that it will be the replacement of the replacement of Rosario and you've grown nothing.

Not true: Kepler was only kept out of it when they had more left handers then they could handcuff. As soon as the number of left handed hitters dropped down to three. When Julien was sent down. Kepler was also demoted to no longer facing left handers. You have to maintain the 1 righthanded hitter 1 left handed hitter partnerships. You are locked in. You can't escape it. If a left handed hitter is allowed to hit against left handed pitching... THERE IS NO PURPOSE for the short sided Right handed Mr. Low Bar anymore. Therefore if Larnach gets hurt and Erod comes up. Erod has to assume the Larnach role. If the club says... we are only going to treat Larnach this way and Erod is special so he plays everyday against both hands! What is the purpose of the short sided right handed guy that you spent 4 million dollars on when Erod joins? I'll bet you money right now... that Erod will platoon unless there are 3 other left handed hitters on the roster. The main reason that Erod will platoon besides this extreme fear of lefty vs lefty... is because of the roster presence of Mr. Low Bar. Mr. Low Bar is on the roster for this specific reason. To Hit against lefties. If you let the lefty hit against lefties. Mr. Low Bar is no longer necessary. You lock into this roster construction... you can't get out of it. Then the injuries come and now you have Dogs pretending to be Cats because the Mr. Low Bar is facing right handers more often then left handers which negates any platoon advantage that you gain.

How do you bust out of this cycle of low bar dependence? If you can't develop players you are in constant need of these low bar guys to fill out the roster. If you don't have the money to bring in actual complete major league players via free agency... you have to develop your way out of it and our development program is busy spitting out left handers who require an additional roster spot taken up by Low Bar Rosario types. How do you bust out of that cycle? You can't... it's a rabbit hole with no end in sight. Wallner, Larnach and Julien can't bust you out of this cycle of low bar-ness because they will perpetually require the low-bar guy to handcuff to them. Once you roster Mr. Low Bar for this role... what happens when Larnach gets hurt and they call up Erod? Here's what happens... Erod gets attached to Mr. Low Bar because Mr. Low Bar is on the roster for one reason... to face lefties so Erod will have to concede those lefty AB's and you've got another Wallner or Larnach on your hands who is then sent down when Larnach returns and your development continues to be compromised. What happens when Mr. Low Bar Rosario gets hurt. Just let Larnach hit lefties now... No... they won't do that... Miranda or Martin will be the new short side and now you have developing right handed hitters who are compromised. Who was prevented from playing last season? I don't know... I won't pretend to know. Larnach and Wallner are two that were compromised for the privilage of Margot on the roster. Miranda hit better against right handers and was held to face left handers because of the presence of Larnach and Wallner and Julien on the roster. Kiersay only got 13 AB's... there's one from AAA but I'm not going to claim that I know what Keirsay would have done and I don't think anyone here is able to makes any claims either... but I'll say this... The people who think that Kiersay got an opportunity or don't think that Kiersay deserved an opportunity.... are probably the same people who say things like... Rooker... Oh Well... It happens.

You can call him utility if you'd like. He's a guy who can play multiple positions however... injuries will require much more from him and everyone should know this by now. Yet, year after year most are content looking for below average players to burn roster spots. Burning roster spots on players who are perfectly acceptable as long as they don't play that much is a big problem because he will play a lot. Correa had 319 AB's last year Buxton had 355 AB's last year Lewis had 292 AB's last year That will add up to a lot of Rosario playing time. I have no interest in 29 year old specialists who are destined to be asked to produce more than they are capable of producing due to injuries suffered by others. I have no interest in specialists who just have to be replaced by the next version of this type of player next year. After 942 Games and 3,713 Plate Appearances. It's pretty established that he is a below average player. He's been placed on waivers in his career because he had established himself as a below average player. I'm sick of players who bring a low bar to clear and then watch others be prevented from attempting to clear that low bar.

Exactly the type of player I expect the Twins to target this off-season. And I'm willing to place a bet right now: If the Twins sign him for his ability to hit left handers and this is why he will be signed. He will face more right handers than left handers. Any takers? Career .669 OPS against Right Handed Pitchers. .657 against righties last year.

I'd be willing to bet that he doesn't want a short side platoon job like he had last year. He declined the mutual option... I don't know if Arizona would have declined but what we do know is that he declined. I'm doubtful that he gets the 6m for a short side platoon role from anyone. He's got to be seeking more... not so much more money but more responsibility.

Yeah... my post contained a lot of in between the spaces commentary and it shouldn't. I normally caution against that sort of lip reading because the job has to be fluid reacting to ever changing context that they can't predict. These guys are asked questions all the time and they have to provide some sort of answer or at least skillfully dance around it. Public Relations is task. With that said... I found it interesting that his top of mind was. 1. He likes the pitching 2. 1st base 3. Right Handed Specialists.

I wasn't able to listen to the entire interview but I heard the first two questions he was asked and what I took away from the answers. He didn't argue or correct the interviewer when the question was phrased with the words "Payroll Flat". Falvey said they have been primarily talking with other clubs about trade possibilities which I took as... not particularly active in free agents. This was not a surprise to me. When asked what the needs were and what they were looking for he starting by saying that he liked the starting pitching options. He went on to say that they were 7 or 8 deep. Personally... I'd love to add a big arm... we all would but in the absence of a big arm... I'm Ok with him being somewhat comfortable with the rotation as my hope remains that they don't bring in an innings eater. The first need that he did mention was replacing Carlos Santana at 1B. He talked about Julien and Miranda getting work at 1B but the first thing he mentioned was a Carlos Santana replacement so I assume 1B is the top priority based on the sequence of his response. The 2nd thing he mentioned was right handed replacements for Margot and Farmer. This made me sad. I had to get out of the car and back to work so I didn't listen to the rest of the interview. Unless I hear differently later on in the off-season. I fully expect a couple Margot and Farmer look a likes to join the club. That is going to suck... I'm not surprised but yeah the confirmation is disapointing.

I don't care much for placing players in boxes. Can you hang a zero and how many can you hang. 71 Innings last year with an 0.87 WHIP! Why wouldn't we want more innings from someone who does that? You should always strive to get more AB's from your best hitters and you always strive to get more innings from your best pitchers. I will always be against purposely limiting talent for the purpose of keeping them in a box. Go for it

Mid 80's would be a team in contention... Mid 80's would be games that matter in September. I've given up trying to predict baseball a long time ago. Correa, Lewis and Buxton could all play 120+ games and it's also possible that one or all of them OPS+ 90 so you wish that they hadn't played all of those games. If you could predict it... why watch? Tell me you saw the Tigers coming after selling everything at the deadline. I'm pretty sure that the Twins didn't see the Tigers coming and I hope they realize now that they can't predict things either and just GET THE HELL OUT OF THE WAY! If I have a bone of pessimism... that's it. I don't think the front office can get themselves out of the way. I have lowered my hopes and dreams to begging for no specialists. Don't spend a dime, if specialists are the only thing your budget allows. I don't want Margot's Twin brother taking AB's from Larnach. I want Larnach to solidify himself so he solves 2025 and 2026 and 2027. I don't want Larnach, Wallner, Erod or Jenkins to be some Margot dependent junkie. I want the Twins to go into rehab. This way if you are right and you might be right that there is no reason to get up in the morning. At the very least... we kicked the Margot habit and maybe just maybe... Larnach, Wallner, Erod, Jenkins are better for it and 2026 is better for it. 2027 is better for it. If we are going to suck... Suck YOUNG!

I'm not going to beat my head against the wall. The Budget is the budget. Pete Alonso isn't coming... Mark Canha isn't going to help. He's actually going to hurt. What can be done? Get out of the way. Take your 4th place and store it in your heart. I'll keep it out of mine.

Pete Alonso isn't coming, We have a roster. Let's GO!!!

I start every season optimistic even if I spend the off-season pessimistic. Bottom Line: Youth doesn't scare me. The Tigers just went on an incredible run with nothing but youth after trading away vets at the deadline. Youth doesn't scare me... Bad baseball that doesn't go away is what scares me. Here's the optimism for you. Youth has built in advantages that Margot's and Bundy's don't offer. If youth goes bad... you can send them down and try someone else. If at the end of the year... youth doesn't work out... at the very least... they got some major league work in... in theory... that makes them better for next year. Or at least a better idea what is needed next year. It's usable information on players coming back as opposed to throw away information acquired on a guy that's going away after collecting a 4 million dollar pay check on a 1 year deal. The Twins can only sustain themselves through development... so... let's just remove those hurdles and get out of the Margot followed by Margot look a like death spiral. I'll keep my hopes real simple... just one thing this offseason. Please... no specialists... Let's see if we can make some young players special from top to bottom instead. There is nothing worse than have a bad season with Margot's and Bundy's. You have a bad season and you did absolutely nothing for next season.

I don't know about "a lot more options" but yeah better be more options available to any major league franchise. However, the other options could be a rabbit hole of chaos because once you borrow from here to fill here, you have to borrow from here to fill back over there. That's why I only see boring or chaos and nothing in between.

Your article states exactly why I feel the off-season will either be about as boring as humanly possible or extremely chaotic with nothing in between. Given the two choices... I'll hope for boring. Last year when they moved Polanco. I questioned weather it was a good thing to take the Polanco money and break it off into multiple players. Hindsight based on results showed that Polanco wasn't worth much. It also showed that the smaller piece Carlos Santana by himself was produced better value but I'm still going to wrestle with the same question ths year. And I'll say NO... It's not a good thing to take one player and turn them into multiple players. Yes Santana may have worked out but the other smaller piece players did not and this team is only going to be successful if they get production from every roster spot. So I guess... I'm hoping to be bored to tears this off-season. Please... Please... No Specialists. It may be all you can afford... Just honest open competition for playing time. The youth is going to have to bring us home. Even if they fail to bring us home... they will be closer to hopefully bringing us home in the following year. Let's see what the players with options remaining can do. Larnach, Wallner, Lewis, Miranda, Jeffers, Julien, Lee, Martin, Helman, Keaschall, Keirsay, Erod, Festa, SWR, Matthews, Raya, Adams ETC can do. If it works out, we are stronger next year. If it doesn't work out we will be stronger next year. If the Margo look alike doesn't work out... we will not be stronger or closer next year. There should be no consideration from the front office that this team is just a Mark Canha away. The front office made the bed... Lie in it. The team needs to take the proper steps to get themselves out of the Margot necessity cycle.