Riverbrian

This is a great post. Very sensible in my opinion. You are correct... the current Twins 40 man roster contains 20 players who were homegrown. That's a high number in comparison to the rest of the league. Colorado leads with 24, Cleveland and San Fran have 21. The Twins rank 4th in the homegrown player on the 40 man roster list. There are 3 primary ways to build your roster... Homegrown, Trade or Free Agency. For discussions and the setting of a benchmark purposes. If a club uses all 3 avenues equally... It would be 13 Homegrown, 13 Trade and 13 Free Agents for 33%. Now if a team isn't typically inclined to be free agent players in the market. Think lower budget teams because they typically don't spend money... they are not going to sign 33% free agents. If free agency doesn't reach 33%... this is a zero sum game. Homegrown or trade will have to rise in percentage. Most teams do not reach 33% free agents. Only 7 teams to be exact. Texas leads the way with 19 free agents. Toronto and San Diego 15 free agents. Philly 14 free agents The Red Sox, Cubs, Dodgers and the Yankees have 13 for exactly 33%. In the case of the Twins. 7 players are listed as free agent signings. (France, Correa, Castro, Bader, Vazquez, Coulombe, Stewart). That's 17%. Which means that 83% will be divided up between home grown and traded for. With the Twins... 50% is homegrown, 30% trade, 17% Free Agent and 1 waiver claim (Tonkin) hanging on the 40 man.

I was talking with Winston Churchill just the other day about the job of a baseball general manager. He said, “A baseball GM needs the ability to foretell what is going to happen tomorrow, next week, next month, and next year. And to have the ability afterwards to explain why it didn't happen.” Winston is a smart guy.

I know that you are going to agree with what I'm about to say. The Twins are in an interesting situation. In terms of roster development... the Twins tend to act more like the big budget teams than the lower budget teams. There is one key, major, huge difference with the big budget teams. That is Money. The Twins plugging holes with Bader and France is no different than the Mets plugging holes with Soto. The difference is the price tag and talent level. We can't keep up with them that way... no matter how good a job Bader is doing thus far... We can't do it. Being in contention, we have moved young talent for vet talent... I'm not questioning the need to do that because I think buyers should buy and sellers should sell but being in contention is largely a big market action and buying at the deadline is a form of keeping up with the big market Joneses. Being in contention has caused us to strip mine Wallner and Larnach for parts and that plays a role in development and player value. Choosing Garlick for a low level role he can play in that given year over Rooker is how you accidentally lose a Rooker. Choosing Clemons over McCusker could be more of the same. It may not... we may never know but it's the same concept. It's taking someone to keep you a float over someone who may fly. We have to develop Soto and we are not doing that. If we were able to develop a Soto. We can choose to keep him for all 6 years and enjoy his production or trade him after 4 years for Gore, Abrams and Wood and now we can add Abrams and Wood to Buxton and Correa and don't need Bader and France. If they choose to... they have given themselves a choice. Ryan and Ober have pretty good trade value right now. Probably our highest in value in regards to return on a trade if we choose to go that direction. After that... our arbitration guys that graduated from pre-arb won't return as much as we'd like to get back and in the meantime... the production from them has been just OK. The need for development is constant. It does not cease... I'm worried we have ceased a bit on the offensive side. Weather it's the guy chosen in the 1st or 9th round or the McCusker guy signed from an independent league or weather it's Austin Martin acquired in a trade for somebody who was about to cost a lot of money. Whatever the reason... the Twins are low on pre-arb players today... maybe it'll be better tomorrow but they are low on pre-arb players today and that leads to the chain of one year vets who may be great... may not be great but regardless they are gone the following year.

IMO. If allowed to nutshell a little. My biggest concern with the current Twins in terms of development is that we have graduated players from pre-arb to arb and we have hit a lull in replacement pre-arb. Once they hit arbitration they start to eat away at the available budget. Each bite from the budget takes the club further away from money available to get a bigger potentially more impactful player in free agency.

You are correct as usual. You are revealing the nuance. I don't like placing things in black and white buckets when there is so much gray to consider. But for this type of exercise you have to because you are comparing the contents of buckets. Can we really just take a player like Arraez drafted by Ryan and give him Ryan all the credit? You have to choose in order to place him in a bucket. Why does it have to be either or? Drafting and development are likely two different things and each individual is probably a combination and somewhere in the middle. Did we draft well because we developed the draft picks or we found guys who could be developed? Did we draft poorly because we failed to develop them or we found guys who couldn't be developed? And here is another consideration. Whoever gets credit for Arraez, Arraez is with the Padres. Pablo is the result of that development in regards to the Twins. Lots of nuance. Joe Ryan was drafted by the Rays and spent age 22 to age 25 in the Rays system. He was traded to the Twins for Nelson Cruz. Do the Rays wish they hadn't done that in hindsight? If they could do it over... would they do it over? Did the Rays realize what they had when they made the deal for a rental that year? Probably not would be my guess. Did the Rays develop him... of course they did but did the Twins find something extra and say try this for immediate result? Was Ryan MLB ready at the time of the deal. Was he MLB ready in April of that year? He had a 0.789 WHIP in Durham over 57 innings in 2021. He had a 0.788 WHIP in 21 Innings in the Big Leagues with the Twins in 2021. Have the Twins developed Joe Ryan further in the 4 years since the trade. I'm going to assume so. All of this is not the sole reason but yeah... a big reason why I'm struggling with our chain of low budget one year rentals on the offensive side of the ledger. The next Joe Ryan is out there somewhere. MLR did some nice research on the Rays that clearly illustrates that they have done a good job acquiring young controllable talent and I agree that it has been a key mechanism in the low budget success they have shown over the years. However, here is an example where they traded young controllable talent that is going to show up in his Twins bucket and not end up as negative in the Rays draft and development bucket? Nuance.

You are correct. It isn't fair because there is a ton of nuance. It's also kinda fair because I'm not calling for anyone's head. Because... I recognize that there is a ton of nuance. However... let me be clear. I watch as much as I can. I'm aware how players arrive on all 30 teams. There are three primary avenues to staffing your rosters. Trades, Free Agency and Farm Raised. I've just decided that development (increasing player value) is important after trades are made. And I've decided that development will make you less reliant on the low dollar free agent and it can also provide additional budget space to sign a bigger free agent if they choose to go that route. So... forgive me for nut shelling. I will judge this front office on development. Hopes, Dreams and Projections? I'm not sure what you mean by that but I have a feeling that I won't like it. Facts? I got facts and I can provide them. This front office has a winning record. 10th best record in baseball since 2017? Are your facts bigger than that fact? Are mine? Do you have Fairness under that nuance?

Substitute 15 Days for games and it takes some fuzz off. 😁

I always appreciate these posts from you. You consistently compare and contrast against other. I never doubt that you are not just watching the Twins.

Every season for every team is a rollercoaster of some sorts. Some have steeper climbs and steeper drops but they all have an up and down to them. The Twins 2025 rollercoaster started with an immediate drop and now we have been in a nice climb. There will be more ups and downs to come. Hopefully they can minimize those drops. We have completed one fourth of the season with three fourths to go. Over the first 25% of the season 41 games. Our pitching has been 5th overall in ERA. I have no complaints. Over the first 25% of the season 41 games. Our offense ranks 22nd in OPS. The last 15 games the Twins have made up a lot of ground with a 10-4 record including our current 8 game winning streak. Over that stretch. Our ERA ranks 3rd. Our Team OPS has ranked 16th. Basically our pitching has held serve and our offense has risen from terrible to average and the result has been a nice run of wins.

I will judge this front office on development and development alone. We can't afford free agents developed by other teams. Let me rephrase that... we can't afford free agents developed by other teams that other teams also have interest in. Development is so important that the success or failure of a front office can be judged by development and development alone. Multiple teams have rebuilt their farm from producing very little to producing significantly more than we do during the time of Falvey's tenure. I am simply not impressed with their ability to MacGyver low price one year vets together.

As you know... It drove me nuts as well. Mainly from a development standpoint but for multiple reasons. Late game defensive replacements make perfect sense. The threat of a home run is always present no matter the closer. If you have a lead... simply improving your odds that runners don't reach base is sensible and position flexibility gives them the option of working with multiple configurations because multiple configurations are necessary because the game is too messy to just have one. Late game pinch hits make sense... very logical tools for a manager to use. The mid game crap... just painting yourself into a corner late in the game with all options burned and handicapping development at the same time. Those offensive players that start the game should do their job... build a lead and then the defensive guys can help close it out. If Lewis is the low end defender and Keirsay is the high end defender... Castro is a vehicle to connecting it together. .

Buyers buy and Sellers Sell. The Orioles have to reach buyers status before this discussion is even worthy of discussion.

Yeah... it looks like they just stopped like I was hoping they would. With all of the complaining that I've doing with their utilization of our YOUNG left handed hitters the past two years. Even I would have been OK with a pinch hit for Larnach in the 8th with the clock ticking down. That's when you pinch hit when you don't have additional innings to work with and the bell is about to ring. I'm ok that he didn't because a tie game brings extra innings into a play and a possibility of another turn at the plate against a right hander so letting him rip was also something... I was absolutely OK with. If we reconstruct that 8th inning. There was one out and runners on 1st and 2nd. He left Larnach in. He struck out on a foul tip and now it's two outs. Brooks Lee picked him up with that clutch double. Brooks has been improving... he hasn't displayed amazing numbers yet in his career nor a left handed killer profile but Rocco let the ROOKIE stay in the moment and Brooks came through. It's a dial not a switch... it was never an either or scenerio. We are talking an increase or decrease in odds and those odds swing wildly based upon who is seeing the ball well today. The Islanders are picking first in the draft. That's what Odds will do for you when it's one AB at a key moment. Now Lee can put that double in his pocket and carry it with him forward. In the end... Rocco left it alone and it worked out and I'm happy that he did. Well... not totally left it alone. Keirsay was brought in as a defensive replacement for the 9th with Duran entering the game. Keirsay went to RF... Castro went from RF to 2B and Lee went from 2B to 3B and Royce Lewis was the guy taken out for defensive purposes. That move may have told us something in regards to roster utilization. Is this what Rocco prefers defensively. Lewis is just coming back from injury and they are being careful with him as evidenced by his DH work. However... one more inning of work isn't going to be overly stressful on his comeback trail. These defensive switches are moves made for one inning to close the game out... moves made to prevent one mistake in the field to keep that tying run from reaching the plate. Under the consideration of the for defensive purposes motive... two questions arise. 1. Is Lewis the low man on the defensive totem pole? 2. Does Rocco like Lee at 3B and Castro at 2B rather than vice versa. Number 1... Too soon to tell because Royce is just getting back. Number 2... I'd say... Yeah... He likes Lee at 3B and Castro at 2B between those two. Otherwise there was no reason to make that switch.

Been watching the chaos of recent weeks. Castro and Lewis back on the 26 man should have calmed things down a little. The only thing that I can conclude through it all. Buxton, Correa, Larnach, France and Lee were everyday players through it all and Bader was pretty close. With Castro and Lewis back... we have a possibility of 8 everyday players. We will have to watch for awhile. Other observations: Castro has played all 3 games in the OF since his return. Now that Bader isn't ill. Will that continue in the new context. Larnach is clearly not platooning. He has 28 Plate Appearances in 2025. He started 0 for 11. He has gone 4 for 16 since. To put it in perspective. It's May 9 we are 38 games into the season and he has already surpassed the number of AB's against left handers last year. He had 22 PA's against left handers in 2024. SCATTERED 22 PA's over 162 games last year and OK... Now you can face them. 28 PA's over 38 games in 2025 projects to 119... this is a complete 180 that was long overdue. If anyone thinks this is a failed experiment. I've seen the comments stating such. Maybe... Maybe Not. However... can we at least give him a beat or two. He has been held back for two years and finally told OK now we will let you. Can we please give him a beat or two before he is called horrendous? Also... during that 0 for 11 stretch to begin his new "let him face left handers job". Trevor was also not really hitting right handers either. He didn't hit his first home run until April 18. Trevor was going to need to heat up against both hands not just that 0 for 11 against lefties. Larnach is 4 for 27 for the season including that 0 for 11 start. Ty France is 5 for 27 so he would also be the same adjective being applied to Larnach vs left handers. Now Bader has a decent OPS against the left hander. Bader is 7 for 26. 7 for 26 vs 4 for 27 is such a small sample that one good day will make up .400 points of OPS with the same snap of fingers that he is being expected to perform at.

Do they have options remaining after this year? If they do... time hasn't run out. If they don't... time is running out fast.

Loosely tying this IFA discussion to McCusker who is a completely different animal. I often think about the CBA and the role it plays in development and the big contract. Take Jorge Polanco for example. Jorge was 16 when he signed with the Twins. The Twins had to make a decision on him at age 23 because he was already out of options. This time line creates a boom or bust with these young IFA's. Many just ain't ready for a 26 man spot that they are forced into if you want to keep them at the age where college players are just getting drafted. Emma had to be added to the 40 man at age 21. He will be out of options before he reaches the age that Brooks Lee is right now. You end up with superstars like Juan Soto hitting the stage at age 20... becoming a free agent at age 26 and able to sign a 15 year deal because he is still young enough. Brooks Lee coming out of college won't be eligible for free agency until he is 30 at the earliest. There will be no 15 year contract for Brooks at that age. It's no wonder that teams prefer to draft college players when they can hold them through their prime years. And in the case of McCusker. 1 year in the Great West league, followed by 4 years at Oklahoma State... followed by two years in the Frontier league and he finally gets started at age 25. Here he is at age 27 hitting the ball and we have folks using age against him, small sample size against him. BTW... Another Double Last night. 😉

Love your post. I hold no expectation that new owners are going to ride up on a white horse. The Pohlads will be leaving in the same Uber that dropped off the new owners. Market conditions are Market conditions. I think Elias did not a nice job tearing it down and building it back up but... Morton, Sugano, Kittredge, Sanchez and Laureano to finish the job? I'd be bitching about that on Oriolesdaily.

I don't see anyone on the current roster. We got some hope in the minors with Emma at the top of the pile. We have 4 players on the roster who were signed from the international market. Castro was signed by Cleveland, Lopez Seattle, Duran Arizona and Alcala Astros. So all of them were acquired via trade or in the case of Castro... scooped up after the Tigers released him.

I'm not arguing your point. But I'd like to point out that the Twins are 10-5 since April 22. There was a 4 game losing streak inside of that 15 game stretch but it's been a good stretch of baseball. As much time as I spend on Bride/Clemens McCusker debate on another thread and I'll keep going with that debate... I do recognize that the club is doing pretty good regardless (for the moment). As much as I talk about Bader and France. I'll stand here and recognize that Bader and France have been nice contributors to the current 15 stretch of decent results. I'll recognize the spark that Keaschall provided as we started rolling. It's been nice to see Buxton and Jeffers get it into gear. And I'll applaud someone that I have been really hard on... Christian Vazquez has been getting some key hits during this stretch. The performance from those guys buys time for Correa and Lewis to join the party. And... I recognize that Clemens almost won that game in Boston by himself.

As concerned as we are about the Twins start this season and rightfully so. Baltimore is a good reminder to all of us that other teams/fans are also disappointed. As much as the pundits talked about the Baltimore off-season and not finding suitable starters to bring this talented club home. Not many pundits thought this Orioles offense would be the mess that it has been thus far. Hoping for another W today. Go Twins!

This is something that I fight with in my head. Are they struggling to develop even average talent. Forget the superstar... are the struggling to develop average talent or even slightly below average talent or are they just simply choosing to go with a low cost vet because they can milk just enough out of them to keep them floating. Either way... it's a problem with a bill to pay in the future. Draft position... That doesn't matter to me. The Dodgers draft late every year and out develop other clubs. We have all witnessed Dave Dombroski get fired from the Red Sox after he stripped the minor league system bare only to see the Red Sox explode past the Twins in terms of development. The Red Sox went from cupboard nearly bare to more pre-arb players on the Roster than the Twins do and two of the top prospects in baseball basically ready right now. And that's after trading a good chunk of upper end prospects to get Crochet from the White Sox. The next project that I'm going to work on is the International Free Agent. How have the Twins done in that department? I don't know... but I'm going to compare and contrast the Twins with the other 29 clubs and look into it when I get a chance. There are a lot of players who got paid a million and did nothing coming from IFA but there is also a high percentage of the games superstars that came from IFA. The Twins compare with the other 29 teams? I don't know but I have a suspicion that the answer will be not good.

I always appreciate you String. What would his role be? He's an Outfielder. He can DH. We have a team full of players not hitting decently enough. Why would you limit his role if he's hitting? You send him back down if he's not. Start against left handed pitching? You know how I feel about that. I'm really against strip mining players for parts. Would Rocco? Well we just added Clemens a left handed hitter instead and he isn't starting against all right handers. In regards to his age of 27. You'd be surprised how many 27 year olds become productive MLB players. I can think of Nelson Cruz and Joe Nathan off the top of my head. But... I hope this isn't some expectation that McCusker has to become Nelson Cruz or he isn't worth it. A prospect doesn't have to have a 6 year career with us to be worth it. Anyway... you'd be surprised... especially with organizations moving toward drafting college players over high school players. To find more of them... beyond the Cruz, Nathan, Encarnarcion, Justin Turner examples. Just take a tour around Roster Resource and look at each team and count them. From Yennier Cano to Jarren Duran to Connor Wong to Daniel Schneeman to Ben Lively to Zach McKinstry to Christian Walker to Ronel Blanco to Freddie Fermin to Seth Lugo to Lucas Erceg to Taylor Ward to Mitch Garver to Donovan Solano to Yandy Diaz to Jonathan Aranda to Kameron Misner to Adolis Garcia to Jacob DeGrom to Nathan Lukes to Ernie Clement to Chris Bassitt and Bowden Francis. We still have the National League to go through and I got to get to work. Rooker being a first round draft pick and McCusker coming from the Frontier league doesn't matter to me at all and it shouldn't to you either. I don't claim to know what McCusker will be but I have had enough... let's take a guy who has proven to be what we are worried McCusker might be.

I think the moves the Twins made can be justified. I'll concede the need for Bride at the time. I don't necessarily agree but I can concede Bride. Clemens I just can't. We didn't need Clemens... we needed a bat. We just added a couple of infielders with Lewis and Castro coming off the IL. We sent down a couple of infielders in Julien and Gasper. Infielders Bride and Clemens are still here. We were flush with infielders at the time of adding Clemens and we still are.

Yep and eventually there is a bill to pay.

When Bride was traded for CASH after getting DFA'd by the Marlins. We had Larnach, Buxton, Bader and Keirsay for the OF. We had Correa, France, Lee, Keashall, Julien and Castro in injury purgatory while they waited to make an IL call on him. Correa had also tweaked something so... OK... I can kinda see the need for Bride but let's be clear that we also didn't have a very good offense at the time. Later when we trade for Clemens for CASH after getting DFA'd. We had Larnach, Buxton, Bader and Keirsay for the OF. We had a healthy Correa, France, Lee, Julien, Bride and Gasper and let's be clear that we also didn't have a very good offense at the time. You're reasoning isn't completely off base and I'm sure the Twins front office can justify the moves and I'm certainly not going to say that McCusker is going to be the next Rooker. But... Yeah... I'm saying that the Twins are reluctant and whatever the reluctance. It's a development problem.