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Everything posted by Riverbrian
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I'm a Kody Clemens fan. He's knocked 46 dingers with us and that is nothing to sneeze at. Yet... I'm not sure you can just use his 1B performance and extrapolate that to 162 games. Regardless if you can or can't do that. I'm not going to knock Kody Clemens one bit, I got him penciled in to play 2B and believe he can flow to unexpected holes across the diamond as they occur. He's worth every penny. Any 26 man roster should have room for this type of player. I'd still be bringing in a 1B who can crush the baseball. That isn't Goldschmidt in my eyes.
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3 Bold Predictions for Minnesota Twins’ Offseason
Riverbrian replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
BTW... I'm an advocate of Bauers and Lewis being both on our 26 man roster in 2027.- 53 replies
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Jeff Hoffman Undergoes Elbow Surgery
Riverbrian replied to Cody Christie's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
I was sleeping in med school but elbow seems to be a lot better than anything with the shoulder. We made progress on the bullpen in 2026. We will need to make more progress before 2027 begins And as always... perpetually. The pitchers that we are counting on... on paper at least.... will get hurt and be unavailable. Keep searching -
3 Bold Predictions for Minnesota Twins’ Offseason
Riverbrian replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I agree that the answer is most likely found somewhere on the shelf marked development. Development isn't just the kids. Sometimes you get to develop an old guy like Clemens... help them find the light switch and sometimes it's just plain ole' opportunity to show it. We have to assume that coaches do something because we got a lot of them and I imagine that a coaches jobs is to make players better and I also imagine that coaching isn't just reserved for players below a certain age. If development isn't linear and it really isn't. Light switches can be found later on in life. Jake Bauers found it at age 29 and 30. No guarantees that the room won't go dark on him after we sign him to a 3 year deal. As for your specific suggestions. Could be. I won't argue them.- 53 replies
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I'll add a couple of thoughts to your excellent post. 2019 was also prior to the rule changes limiting the amount of throws to hold runners on and the wider base. Those rule changes significantly changed baseball in 2023. I just did a quick AI search and the numbers were generated via AI and sometimes when I do that... They are not accurate so take the numbers with a grain of AI Salt. Stolen Bases went up 40% league wide. The success ratio went up as well. Twins stolen attempt percentage went up even higher but we were 30th in the league in 2022 so the percentage uptick still left them well below the rest of the league. According to AI... The Twins went from 55 to 99 attempts. To compare... The Reds went from 91 to 238 attempts. Ronald Acuna by himself attempted 87 stolen bases in 2023. Castro was our leader with 38 attempts. The Twins were only caught stealing 13 times (Again According to AI). The Reds were caught 48 times. In my opinion... we have an opportunity this year to display increased athleticism this year. Don't know if Culpepper, Emma and Jenkins will be big stolen base guys but they should increase the possibility of a stolen base than what we have been typically rostering.
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With less words this time. So you run 13 through... not 9. Why can't we choose the best 5 outfielders out of the 8 we have to choose from. Choose the best 5 and you have alternatives for those who do what you are concerned about. Instead... Martin will be chosen and we know why. Jenkins will start in AAA to make room for Martin. Martin will attach to Emma. Emma gets hurt... Jenkins is called up, Martin attaches to Jenkins. Martin gets hurt... Gonzales is called up instead of Jenkins. Gonzales attaches to Emma. Somehow Martin gets 300 AB's anyway. That's what we do.
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3 Bold Predictions for Minnesota Twins’ Offseason
Riverbrian replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
You are exactly right. You can't jettison Lewis at a low point and you can't give him 162 games at a low point. Sounds like someone who needs to prove himself... earn his job back. You can keep him... but you can't declare him the man. He has to declare himself the man. Like Bauers did.- 53 replies
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This sentence sums it up pretty good for me. This constant fixing today at the expense of tomorrow drives me crazy. Why is Milwaukee and Cleveland and Tampa consistently beating us today when they consistently make moves for tomorrow? Is it possible that you can successfully target tomorrow and still win today? Milwaukee says yes you can.
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I'm sure you know this but I'll mention it for others who may not be thinking about it when they look at 24 players via trade and only 8 homegrown on the Rays roster. Draft and Development doesn't always mean playing for the same team. Sometimes draft and development success means developing players that have value in trade and are then traded. For example (and this is going to end up involving the Rays, Brewers and Cleveland). Caminero was acquired in a trade with Cleveland for Tobias Myers who was a prospect at the time. Cleveland I'm sure regrets this. Myers struggled and was released by Cleveland? The Brewers signed him as minor league free agent at age 24. Milwaukee fixed some stuff. Got some production out of him and included him in a deal with Peralta to the Mets for Brandon Sproat and Jett Williams. The Brewers reload and still make the world series. The Twins don't do this stuff very well.
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Austin Martin Has Reached A Crossroads
Riverbrian replied to Cody Pirkl's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Rostering Martin will domino into other players. He will hit them rather hard. If you give Martin a 26 man spot next season. You will not roster others. Buxton, Keaschall Emma are locks. Jenkins, Larnach, Roden and Wallner are left handed options for the final two spots. If you add Martin to that group. He's 5th in my eyes. Give Martin a spot. The 4 lefthanders become the choices for 1 spot. You can stash Jenkins, Roden and Martin. If you give Martin a spot over the 4 left handers... you are choosing a lesser player. You are making a decision that is not based on talent. If Martin gets a spot. He will take all AB's against left handing pitching from someone.- 39 replies
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The CBA states that Teams get 5 years before they have to protected from the Rule 5. If you sign them at 16... they reach this status at 21. On the other hand... A drafted college player and the Twins seem to like the college players. You get 4 years and they reach this status at 25 or 26. Of course... at that point... Twinsdaily tends to talk about how they are too old to be a prospect. No chance of Twinsdaily accusing Mercedes of being too old to be prospect. When they starting signing them at age 13. We will have to make this decision at 18.
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LOL. The AI didn't put enough,,, ellipses,,, in. Improvement is not always possible. We 100% agree on that. Oddly... That's what makes this so important. Purposely choosing lesser players leaves you without a fire extinguisher in case of fire and there is always a fire. Purposely choosing a Kreidler for short side duty is your fire extinguisher. And they don't just struggle left on left or right on right... they can struggle both ways and the opposite ways. How quickly did we need Gray and Kreidler to become the solution. In regards to Larnach... He doesn't matter anymore. He's baked... he is what he is and the Twins had the ingredients and poured them in. His beginning is what matters and what that means for Jenkins and Emma is what matters now. His beginning over two years was 141 PA's and a .664 OPS. The major league average left vs left for those two years combined was .668. This isn't anything to be afraid of. Regardless... they pulled the plug in 2023 and 2024 and nothing mattered anymore. I'm not saying Larnach would have made it. I'm not saying he wouldn't. I'm saying the plug was pulled the decision was made. And the Twins made the same decision on every single left hander they have had since 2023. We have nothing to show for it. I don't want them doing that to Jenkins, Emma or Roden. If Martin makes the roster... he's going to take a pound of flesh from one of those guys. May even force Jenkins to start in AAA and the selection of lesser people is the consequence from what was started in 2023. Larnach doesn't matter anymore. It's done. Lowe. We can sing in Harmony. He is exactly the wrong thing to do. He's the wrong thing we have always done. You want to support this team Tom Pohlad. Nathanial Lowe does not qualify as support. That's the repeat button stuck on repeat. Get a big hitting multi year guy who hits the ball. Plug that hole with substance.
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That's chicken or egg I guess. If the Twins are at a whole new level of platooning because of an overall deficiency. It's possible but I tend to not believe that since they are just platooning out of the box not allowing talent to prove deficient... they are just declaring it. We will know for sure if Jenkins and Emma are platooned out of the box just like the others. I am betting on that happening. Knowing the Twins. Yep... that's what they do. Nathaniel Lowe is just another example and probably what is left over after Bauers and Soto sign elsewhere. In the meantime... Development would just stop that train in it's tracks and that brings us back to the chicken or egg. Is the train running on chickens or eggs?
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I agree. Defense is always part of the Talent/Lesser player discussion. Defense is a legimate consideration and defense is good explanation for the Brewers continued use of Turang against all comers. However... in regards to Jenkins and Emma. Don't bet on it. Tthe Platooning that the Twins are doing recently was something they were not doing in 2019. I'm trying my hardest to point out that our Twins are at a whole new level of platooning and it's leading to an overall talent deficiency. Castro was the only guy that they tried to keep away from Left Handed hitters. Rosario and Kepler were 2nd and 3rd in AB"s against left handed hitters. Arraez was allowed to hit lefties. There was absolutely no reason to platoon Rosario or Kepler because they both performed well against lefties in 2019 so it's clearly possible to achieve. Yet we have failed every time since 2023. Arraez in 2019 was about a .200 OPS difference yet wasn't really platooned. Almost every year after... Arraez was a .200 OPS difference and was never really platooned. About 28% of his AB's came against left handers. Arraez was never considered to be an excellent defender. Regardless... I agree that defense is a factor. But again... defense is part of the overall talent discussion that is dear to my heart. However... logically... defense shouldn't be a consideration in regards to what hand the opposing pitcher throws with since platoons are hitting generated. Defense that only plays against left handed pitching isn't really contributing anything defensively 72% of the time. Rostering someone to just sub in the 8th or 9th inning isn't really being serious about talent. It's over. Kepler on the other hand was allowed to demonstrate the ability to hit lefties in 2019 and he demonstrated that he could. It was 2023 when the Twins cranked up the over the top vortex that no other team cares to match. 2023 started to suck him in. He was just lucky that we had Larnach, Wallner, Julien and Kirilloff to be the first priorities and only so many platoon plates to spin at one time.
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Thank you Seth! I look forward to other parts to follow. In regards to the draft. The average draft position in the past decade has been: Twins: 14.2 Tampa: 19.6 (Ranked 7th Highest ADP) Milwaukee: 20.0 (Ranked 6th Highest ADP) Throwing in Cleveland for the hell of it: 20.2 (Ranked 5th highest ADP) Drafts are won through development.
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Thank you for your entire post. You are a breath of fresh air because I'm stuck in the mud with Milwaukee is platooning in the playoffs and apparently that means sacrificing the regular season. It's frustrating so Thank You. The juncture is here... the hour is critical. It's the next wave. It's here. What do we want Jenkins and Emma to become? The decision is RIGHT NOW! It's not later... it's right now. We can go down the Lowe path. It's the same path we've been travelling. Are we going to focus on little gains for today at the expense of tomorrow... AGAIN. Are we just going to continue doing what we have absolutely 1,000 percent committed to the past 4 years. Do we want to carry on and just throw Jenkins and Emma and Roden and Sanchez and Tait into the same grinder that spit out Larnach, Kirilloff, Wallner, Julien. The hour is now. Are we sending Jenkins down to the minors so we can roster a lesser player in Austin Martin just so we can attach Martin to Emma? Does Roden wait behind Gonzalez due to handedness? Is Gonzalez fated to become Martin because of the presence of Jenkins and Emma? The hour is now. We blew the last wave... will we blow this one? Choosing Gonzalez over Emma for a short period of time isn't a huge deal but the mechanism that led to choosing a lesser player even if it was a short peiod of time is a huge deal. We should all know that Gonzalez was chosen over Emma because of Larnach needing Martin and Martin being hurt. This was set in motion 4 years ago when we created Larnach by insuring that he would ultimately become reliant upon a lesser player for the entirety of his career. In the process we are also crating the cancer that attaches to it. Austin Martin and Gabriel Gonzalez are being developed to be that short side guy that will attach to the host and make the host sick. Development isn't what we do. We develop specialists and it's not working. This was all set in motion 4 years ago with Larnach, With Kirilloff, With Wallner, With Julien. Will we be in the same place with Jenkins and Emma and Roden 4 years from now? By turning them into Larnach. My guess is yes they will do exactly that. The hour is now for what should be a no. Just change today... Right now. It's about talent... All that meaningless mundane research that I did that very few care about or understand... That was all about talent. Are the decisions designed for today and today only even helping today. Does it help enough to justify the damage to tomorrow? Yet we are still getting beat by the teams that are a little more tomorrow focused like Cleveland and Milwaukee or Chicago. If people want role players to fill out your 26 man you are not serious about talent. Injury will drag the role players into the light. If you want Jenkins strip mined for parts... you are not serious about talent. You are just diminishing the future value to survive today and hindsight is showing that we did not survive previous today's and we are well into the future now with very little to show for it. Are we going to do the same thing with Jenkins and Emma? The time is now. Talent isn't just expensive realized talent that we can't afford to buy. It's also about talent that needs time to become expensive realized talent or even average talent at a lower price point. Does the player have talent realized like Schwarber or unrealized like Jenkins. Either way it's Talent. We want Talent not role players who will never become that type of talent. Being an advocate for specialists to round out the roster... That is not a commitment to talent. It's just more crap that will be dragged into the light. Some want those specialists and then bitch about the lack of talent when we are forced to deploy them. It's the same path that led us nowhere. It's the path that in the words of Bob Dylan... Just kinda wasted our precious time". I've thought twice... It's not alright. Short Side Specialists as a plan is a BAD PLAN and we've tried that... we know the result. Looking for right handed hitters when you already have 9 of them is a BAD PLAN and we've tried that... we know the result. Being the leader of the left handed hitter phobia club... being the 30th out of 30 teams alpha dog is a BAD PLAN and we've tried that and we know the result. Thanks for your post and the honest discussion. The reason I only quoted the section I quoted is because it needs to stand out. "Get the Twins a few Turangs of their own" Exactly... However... The Twins have refused to even attempt to develop a Turang. They haven't even attempted. The Brewers will develop Turang fully and they will trade him after 4 or 5 years for players who will reload the system. But the Twins will pick up Nathanial Lowe he will be average with no trade value if he works out and we will once again sell our future for today... meanwhile we are still getting beat by the teams with all those developing youngsters... not selling their future for today. How does the future focused team beat the team focused on today... TODAY? Every today for the past how many years? It's about Talent. What we are doing isn't working. We are treading water. the kids across the street are swimming and beating us. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ BTW... Some response to other thoughts in your excellent post. I used AB's not PA's therefore the 202 compared to 176 and you are right... it doesn't change the discussion. The three players you mention who are killing left handed pitching that the Twins don't have are: Jackson Chourio who is a right handed hitting still developing 22 year old uber prospect who will feed the Brewers into the future. Jake Bauers who is LEFT HANDED and Andrew Vaughn who also had a .768 OPS against right handed pitching and is considered depth on a 103 win team. Vaughn played primarily 1B just like Bauers did but Vaughn also played 3B for a 103 win team. Bauers also played OF for a 103 win team as Pat Murphy was able to figure out how to get them into the lineup while Twinsdaily would cry out LOGJAM!!! Meanwhile... the Brewers beyond Bauers and his exceptional 160 PA's against left handers were able to survive an additional total of 604 left handed PA's against left handed pitchers from Turang, Yelich, Mitchell, Frelick and Hamilton and the best OPS amongst the group of 5 against left handed pitchers was Mitchell at .668. They survived but the Twins have limited left handers religiously and didn't survive. It isn't working. We are loading up the right handed batters box... placing 9, 8 or 7 in the right handed batters box and it isn't working because this is a talent discussion and we search for lesser talent on purpose just to feed a machine that doesn't appear to work. I really like your point about the platoon assumption... hope... expectation as the why we platoon. I believe you are correct... that's why we do it. The platoon splits are real. However... It takes time for the numbers that feed the assumption... hope... expectation to accumulate. A .640 OPS is developed over time. A .640 OPS can still hit a home run on any given day. The time that it takes to create distance in the overall splits doesn't add up to much in one individual game or individual AB. I'm pretty sure that Garrett Mitchell did some things in those starts against left handers that helped win a game or two. Players need to be allowed time to have a hot streak to stabilize a cold streak or vice versa. We don't know what 30 PA's even means but we limit to 30 right out of the box. That amount of time it takes to create the numbers that we all react to is the exact thing that we are taking away from our developing left handed hitters. It takes time to create the disparity and we are taking away time from them to lessent the disparity. They need time... we say they can't have it. Time to improve... time to adjust... time to show that they don't need to be platooned. Time to become Schwarber or Freeman instead of just denying the opportunity by not allowing the time and setting a Joc Pederson sized ceiling or a Larnach ceiling. The Brewers are consistently beating us and our answer to that is to sign lesser players and create more Larnachs. It's not working. Turang drafted one spot behind Larnach is interesting. I'll say this about that. Turang was lucky the Twins didn't draft him. Larnach is unlucky that the Brewers didn't draft him. The Twins could have taken Turang and they would have killed him. Because that is what we do. You see it... It's about talent, and it's about the money we have to work with and the most reasonable path to talent. A budget that demands that we develop our talent or we die or subsist on garbage. If the Twins were not pinch hitting before a batter even has his first AB, if the Twins were not calling up Gonzalez over Emma even for a short time. If the Twins had produced anything of trade value from a farm that is consistent highly ranked for decades. If the Twins were not consistently plugging the same holes over and over with the same Nathanial Lowe type players. If the Twins were not bending over backwards to find more right handed hitters when they already have 9 of them. You are correct... the platoon discussion would not be such a big deal because all teams platoon. But... the Twins do this crap unlike all other teams. So it's a huge deal and I'd just rather they stop. The Twins are just doing it wrong. Talent... accumulate it and don't diminish it on purpose. Right handed or left handed I don't care... I want talent... but if you want a tiebreaker... Grab the lefty swinging guy because of all the righty throwing guys. We limit our lefthanders on purpose. Cleveland, The White Sox, the Brewers... they have more left handed hitters than they can platoon. And look... they have actual left handed hitters developing against left handed pitching and they are winning today and they have been winning today year after year. Until the Twins just stop doing this... I'm going to keep saying... Look... Everybody Look... until people actually see what I'm saying and hopefully I have less "So you're okay with trying to win in the playoffs but not during the regular season" responses while discussing a team that WON 103 GAMES in the regular season. No to Lowe... Get BAUERS!!! He doesn't need to be platooned. Get Talent. Create Talent. If Tom Pohlad wants to commit to something. Commit to talent. Commit to not committing to lesser players.
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Umm... I don't know... I didn't realize the Brewers were not trying to win in the regular season. Is this the approach you want to take in your gotcha moment. Do we just go round in circles with this crap. The Brewers had 699 at bats for the pure left handed hitters against left handed pitching during the regular season. The Twins had 324. The Brewers had a team OPS of .720 against left handed pitching. The Twins had a .678. What is your point? My point is talent. What's yours? Hamilton had 71 AB's in the regular season against left handed pitchers and he was the one they hid the most. The other 5 pure left handed hitters had opportunity to show Pat Murphy who should be platooned in the playoffs. Bauers, Turang and Mitchell are not platooning in the playoffs. Those 3 have homered 4 times off of left handed pitchers in the playoffs. The team has 10 home runs total in the playoffs. The Brewers have an .800 OPS against left handed pitching in the playoffs. They have a .698 OPS against right handed pitching in the playoffs. They have 6 of those pure left handed hitters on their roster. HOW IS THAT EVEN POSSIBLE? Turang had .620 OPS against lefties in the regular season. Led the entire team in AB's against lefties with 176 of them. Still playing against them in the playoffs. How is that even possible? The Brewers are only using a 3 man rotation in the playoffs. Any comments on that? I guess the Brewers don't want to win in the regular season with that 5 man rotation. Did ya trip me up with your cleverness? You know what I want in the playoffs. THE BEST DAMN PLAYERS!!! How do you know who your best players are? You have 162 games to find out? But you can make it really easy to identify them if you just back them up with role players. Players look better than they are when you place them next to a pile of dead fish. Players who make that .650 OPS look irreplaceable. I'm so tired of having no place to turn when someone is struggling/failing but... apparently it's a tradition you'd like to sustain for a longer period of time than the Bobby Bonilla contract. It's really not a hard concept but for you... maybe it is. It's like a virus. But... we don't know why we are sneezing. We got another article about bringing in half ass players. Let's bring in 26 of these half ass guys. Let's load up and go for it. I'll tell you what. You go ahead and set your pretty platoon combinations up in the off season. You compliment away... go ahead and let's see how long those pretty little platoon combinations last. I'll bet they are blown apart by the end of April but you keep signing lesser players as your strategy for winning baseball games and let's watch Austin Martin get 300 AB's anyway. Go sign your Grichuk's for 5 million so Jenkins will never ever be worth 15 million at any point in his career but at least the Twins will go 394-416 over the 5 years that Jenkins will never ever ever have to face a big scary left handed pitcher and we get to trade him for a relief pitcher when we gotta do that rebuild thing. Let's sit and wonder why we can't produce a Schwarber or Freeman. Let's just ask the other teams to do it for us and then try to sign them in free agency with money we have never had in the history of this franchise. I can't see that working because they usually sign with the big boys but no worries though... there will be plenty of Grichuks to sign in the future as we half ass our way to glory. Do you want to platoon Lewis with Lowe? Or do we have to sign a right handed dude to pair with Lowe? How many roster spots you got? You want two half ass 1B on your roster? Regardless... The Twins front office will hire you because you are in lock step with what they religiously do to produce a 394-416 record over 5 years. How's the compliment thing working for ya. You compliment all you want. Math this thing together. Bring it home. I WANT TALENT! Not bits and pieces of players who end up with 300 AB"s anyway. It's really not a hard concept but nice job knocking me down with your stunning gotcha moment.
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It's how PR Works and we demand PR be fed to us because we don't react well if we don't get it fed to us. A presidential candidate can't campaign by saying. Well... It's difficult... I'll do my best but to be honest... the sides are too far apart and nobody is working with each other with such deep divisions. It takes millions of dollars to run a campaign and those who contribute are not doing it for free. You all need to understand that I have to naviagate all of this before I can get to the issues that concern you. In the meantime, we will tell you what to be concerned about. Don't worry about it because you won't know what we are stuffing into these bills anyway. If he or she said that... he or she wouldn't get elected. The candidate has to lie to us because we demand that the candidate lie to us or they won't get elected. So he stands there and says the researched stuff that we respond to. He tells us that he is for the people and it's the people who make America great and he or she will promise to balance the budget, work across the aisle, lower taxes and build better schools and how the other candidate only cares about corporations, doesn't like old people and kicks puppies. And that works every time so they do it every time. You see it... I see it. Most people don't see it. They fall for it and that's why universities are pumping PR Grads , marketing grads and sending them into the workforce to manipulate us. At least until AI starts doing the manipulation and gets better at it before it turns around and kills us all.
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They can't. Because of... Free Will That's why he can never be specific... that's why he can't declare payroll is going up to 180 million. That's why he can't reveal targets... he can't declare if acquisitions are via trade or free agent. Free Will... A free agent gets to choose if he signs with a club. The other team gets to choose if they will trade a player. No matter Tom Says... we should never assume that they will aggressively over pay in a trade and they will not aggressively over pay on a free agent contract because those acts in themselves are almost worse than not acquiring a player. He can say it... Doing it is much harder. As Ash said... They'll have budget guidelines after that it's up to Zoll or whoever he has making the phone calls to try to land the targets they have identified. All Pohlad can do is stand in front of the public and declare support from ownership. It still doesn't meant that signing Goldschmidt to a one year deal at 5 million is all they are able to do. Rortvedt probably won't break the budget.

