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Riverbrian

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Everything posted by Riverbrian

  1. I understand your point... and I wouldn't call it an argument because that sounds so... I like to call it a discussion... If you are going to take out Brian Dozier's best year... You have to take out the other second baseman's best year as well to be fair. Cano shouldn't get to use his 39 last year. Gyorko shouldn't get to use his 30 last year Kinsler shouldn't get his 28 last year Tulowitski should lose his 25 in 2014 and Hanley should lose his 30 last year After you inflict the same damage on everybody else that you want to inflict on Dozier... We are back to Double Digits again.
  2. Dozier led middle infielders in home runs if you take 2016 away and just use from 2013 to 2015.
  3. The Braves added 28 million in Starting Pitching this off season and they were rumored to be having serious discussion about acquiring Chris Sale. I think the Braves may think they are closer to competitive than others do. I understand that Colon and Dickey were one year contracts but they could have tossed Wisler and Blair into the rotation. The offense would certainly look more formidable if they acquired Dozier and... how about Todd Frazier as well.
  4. There needs to be a deadline. The Dodgers will need to find a 2B if Dozier is unavailable. The Twins may want to add a 2B/SS if Dozier is traded. Those potential options might not be there for either team as other teams lock down their roster more and more each day. The longer it goes the more handicapped everybody becomes.
  5. It's a good article and I believe that is exactly what Friedman is thinking. However... I think Friedman will find that those plan B options are not as available as they think they are. Therefore the Dodgers are in the same type of boat as the Twins. If they can't bring Dozier in... The next option is just as expensive in terms of prospects... or more expensive in terms of contract or... quite a drop off in terms of talent. If they want RH Power to fill that gaping hole at 2B. Go down the list and watch the options go away one by one. The 2B market is soft for the seller and the buyer in my opinion. There is pressure on Falvey/Lavine to make a good first trade with their only decent trade chip but there is also pressure on the Dodgers to win and if they don't win and Dozier clubs 35 home runs in another uniform in 2017 it will be a mistake that will be pointed out. Stay Strong Falvey/Lavine!!! The Twins don't have to settle... Make the Dodgers Settle.
  6. I have often wondered what the dollar value of a prospect is. If Boston wanted to buy Tyler Jay from the Twins for example. How big a check should the Red Sox write. I love creativity and I hope the discussions are considering all of this and more. I also wouldn't mind some 3 or 4 team deal creativity either.
  7. Sconnie, Thank you for this twist in the discussion. I absolutely love the analogy. Allow me to pile on to it. 1. We as fans have access to the CRA reports. Just change Moody's to Keith Law or Fitch to Baseball America and those of us on the outside gobble up this information and quote as gospel thinking we got ourselves a winner without considering that the guys working for the credit rating agencies are the guys who couldn't get a a much better paying job on wall street and are relying on the wall street guys for their information and it is in the interest of the wall street guys to inflate the value of anything they are holding. The system can be gamed and most likely is reverse engineered. 2. In the Case of Brian Dozier for Jose DeLeon... This mortgage backed security is an individual mortgage. It has not been packaged together to minimize the risk. No one would trade the safety of a bond even if it is approaching maturity for a single mortgage unless you had some inside information that the land it sits on will appreciate because you know developers are going to be putting in an Applebee's, School and Park or you know that if they put in that sunroom it would at least halt the depreciation of the structure. However... in this case... the Dodgers are the ones who most likely have the inside information needed to make an informed decision and they have basically said... you can't have this one and you can't have this one... but you can have this one. 3. All we got is this single well paying bond and no idea if DeLeon is Sub-Prime AAA rated by Keith Law and about to be rated Junk ala Alex Meyer. 4. The market changes every day... The Dodgers could go to plan B and trade with the Yankees and now the Yankees need a 2B and it all changes. I'd wait and see what happens.
  8. Stay strong my friend... Freidman is good at this sort of thing and I'm willing to bet anyone that Friedman wouldn't take the deal he is offering us if he was GM of the Twins. Friedman isn't going to trade more than he has to and he isn't going to feel like he has to if he feels like the Twins HAVE TO TRADE Dozier. Akroyd would have gotten more for that watch if he walks away from Bo Diddley after hearing the price. Being able to keep Dozier and coming up with other ways to get better is our best leverage. Don't give them potentially their best hitter for their third best prospect. Jose DeLeon by himself isn't enough to fix our problems anyway and I know absolutely nothing about DeLeon. You turn the tables on Friedman by forcing him to use plan B, C ,D or E. You force him to acquire Jed Lowrie instead because the Rockies won't take DeLeon straight up either... The Rays need Forsythe more than they need DeLeon... The Tigers are suddenly not going to tear things down with the AL Central declining like it is. Robinson Cano and Starlin Castro cost too much money. Force him to go down the list and settle for Jed Lowrie. Make the Dodgers settle instead of forcing the Twins to settle. And settling is what happens when you HAVE TO TRADE him.
  9. Andrew Friedman The guy came from Wall Street... Schooled and practiced in Positive Arbitrage. The guy gets up in the morning just so he can acquire players for less than they worth.
  10. Where you and I are going to differ in opinions... and please forgive me if I'm wrong because I'm not trying to put words in your fingertips. You seem to be sure that Dozier is going to regress and DeLeon is going to progress and that seems to be driving you toward taking the deal. My opinion is that the current gulf between what Dozier is producing in the majors right now and what DeLeon has produced in the majors thus far is too large to justify. Making a trade like that is trading out of desperation and exactly what teams like the Dodgers are going to feed on to stay strong and keep the other team poor. You seem to feel that we can't afford to let this opportunity pass and I feel that we cant' afford a Dozier for Alex Meyer like deal and nobody knows if DeLeon is Alex Meyer Part II. Especially when it is your only decent trade chip. I strongly believe that you help minimize that extreme risk by picking up multiple quality prospects to increase the odds that at least one turns into what they are supposed to be. Being sincere about being OK keeping Dozier is our leverage because as long as the Dodgers think we have to trade Dozier... they can sit there and keep the price low. Big Bank take Little Bank. If it's just for DeLeon... and I know nothing about DeLeon... We would be better off keeping Dozier and taking a different approach back to respectability. I'd be disappointed but there is no way I'm handing the Dodgers someone who is potentially their best hitter for a single prospect who happens to be the best of the prospects that they are willing to trade. Here's another thing where we may differ... Dozier had a great year and after a year like that... I would bet there is some regression. However... there are degrees to that possible regression. Maybe he hits 36 Home Runs next year. Nobody can rule that out. Regression Yes... Valuable Yes. I would like to see Dozier traded right now for maximum payoff (years of control... 42 home runs... all of that)... I'm OK getting prospects in return. But if it is prospects... they gotta be good and it has to be plural. I won't do a straight up deal for just whatever with unknown major league value. . If the Dodgers want to keep their prospects... Let Em. Walking away is how you counter and stand up to the man.
  11. My premise may indeed be off. We are all out of our depth when it comes to value assessment... I will certainly claim that I am... if others aren't. I also don't believe I used the word "worthless" either. In my way of thinking... If the Dodgers want him... Well? Asking for more isn't out of the ordinary. Out of curiosity... If Dozier is a "B" Rated player... What is DeLeon?
  12. Well then the answer is pretty easy. The Dodgers should simply offer DeLeon to the other 29 teams and simply take the 2nd baseman that they like best from all the teams that say Yes. I think it's quite possible that the Dodgers like Dozier the best and the reason is that other teams and the Twins don't view him the way you do. The best leverage the Twins have isn't the Cards or Nats or Giants in play. The best leverage the Twins have is simply being willing to keep Dozier. I can't understand why there are so many on this discussion board that are willing to give that away.
  13. It's like Butch Cassidy said "It's the fall that'll kill ya"
  14. The Cards can play the game just like all the others. The Twins leak information that the Cards are interested. The Twins must do this to let the Dodgers to know that they are not the only team in the league. In response: The Cards leak information that they are not. The Cards must do this because they must support their current roster in case they don't land Dozier. Next: The Cards will probably get information out about how they really like the talent on their existing roster. Maybe go as far as singling out and pumping up Wong publicly to let him know that they believe in him and to let the Twins know publicly that he would be a great addition in any trade package. This stuff goes on every year and it's leaked on purpose. Just part of the process... Nobody on the outside is right or wrong yet.
  15. The Cards have gotten creative like this many times. The Cards and Cubs are teams that don't worry about position log jams. Having a 2B doesn't stop them from picking up a better one and moving pieces around to accommodate I certainly believe this could be legit. Bottom line... the Cards need more power. Same report says the Giants are getting creative. Maybe working on a 3 team deal. Love the leaking or whatever it is... I think Falvey and Levine should say Giants about 100 times a day to the media. .
  16. We do the gift exchange thing with our family. Complete with the stealing of gifts for the added drama. Been doing that for years and we enjoy it. This year my gift will be a charging tower but I'm still a little under budget so I'm going to throw in a Can of Kidney Beans and a hair brush.
  17. For those who have an off-season game thread Jones, we are going to pin this up and let it roll until baseball actually returns. For those of you who are actually named Jones… the reference has nothing to do with you and I bet you think this song is bout you… don’t you… don’t you. I have no idea why Carly Simon just jumped into my head but she probably weighs less than the Counting Crows so I’m grateful. When it comes to the Twins off-season… we got a couple of new leaders who can hopefully help us believe… believe in anything… ‘cause I want to be someone who believes. OK… the Counting Crows were in my head, too. Turns out… I have room for them all in there. All game threads are meant to be fun… no offense should be given or taken. The spirit of all responses is to enjoy yourself. It’s easy… just don’t take yourself seriously and you will fit right in. All are welcome and encouraged to participate… serious thoughts and goofy thoughts and anything in between. The game thread analogy is a bunch of people sitting in the left field bleachers having a good time talking about anything. The one and only rule: No Bad Moods… don’t feel bad or make others feel bad. Have Fun! Here are some things to think about: 1. Snow – In Minnesota… snow is a seasonal reality, but truth be told, the cold in Minnesota trumps the snow we get. For example… Buffalo, New York averages 93 inches annually while Buffalo, Minnesota averages 46 inches. I guess the point is… it could be worse. Now last week… none of that mattered as a system just sat over my house and kept dropping snow. It snowed for so long… I just left the snow blower running for 3 days straight. The snow amount was perplexing but I figured it out. We had simply become trapped in a snow globe sitting on the desk of a space giant. 2. Agents – The off-season is when our thoughts turn to the Twins front office but very rarely do we think about the other side of it. The off-season is when the agents also go to work striking the best deal for their clients. It’s a tough job… A good friend of mine is a sports agent and I was having lunch with him one day. He looked out the window and he noticed one of his clients walking across the street and this pained look of disgust came across his face and he said… “Do you see that guy walking across the street… that jerk takes 90% of my money.” 3. The Winter Solstice – Wednesday, December 21st is the day of the 2016 Winter Solstice. It will be the longest night of the year. Actually… the second longest night of the year. I’m pretty sure the night I innocently told my wife that I thought her sister was kinda hot was the longest night of the year. 4. Halloween – Maybe it’s my advancing age but Halloween just doesn’t scare me anymore. People in costumes, haunted houses, piped-in ghost sounds… none of it frightens me anymore. However… the first Tuesday after Halloween… completely scares me to the bone. 5. Ice Cream – I have just one more thought for all of you... to Hell with winter. Yes, that was me walking out of the Cold Stone Creamery eating and enjoying the Banana Caramel Crunch with the temp at -3 F. I can’t be stopped. Click here to view the article
  18. 1. Snow – In Minnesota… snow is a seasonal reality, but truth be told, the cold in Minnesota trumps the snow we get. For example… Buffalo, New York averages 93 inches annually while Buffalo, Minnesota averages 46 inches. I guess the point is… it could be worse. Now last week… none of that mattered as a system just sat over my house and kept dropping snow. It snowed for so long… I just left the snow blower running for 3 days straight. The snow amount was perplexing but I figured it out. We had simply become trapped in a snow globe sitting on the desk of a space giant. 2. Agents – The off-season is when our thoughts turn to the Twins front office but very rarely do we think about the other side of it. The off-season is when the agents also go to work striking the best deal for their clients. It’s a tough job… A good friend of mine is a sports agent and I was having lunch with him one day. He looked out the window and he noticed one of his clients walking across the street and this pained look of disgust came across his face and he said… “Do you see that guy walking across the street… that jerk takes 90% of my money.” 3. The Winter Solstice – Wednesday, December 21st is the day of the 2016 Winter Solstice. It will be the longest night of the year. Actually… the second longest night of the year. I’m pretty sure the night I innocently told my wife that I thought her sister was kinda hot was the longest night of the year. 4. Halloween – Maybe it’s my advancing age but Halloween just doesn’t scare me anymore. People in costumes, haunted houses, piped-in ghost sounds… none of it frightens me anymore. However… the first Tuesday after Halloween… completely scares me to the bone. 5. Ice Cream – I have just one more thought for all of you... to Hell with winter. Yes, that was me walking out of the Cold Stone Creamery eating and enjoying the Banana Caramel Crunch with the temp at -3 F. I can’t be stopped.
  19. Very Shocking and Very Sad News. I hurt for his loved ones
  20. I get the Eaton value. I think the Nationals got a good player but for that price... I'm surprised that the Nationals couldn't have gotten Robertson along with Eaton in the deal. The Nats need some back end of the bullpen work.
  21. Rumors being floated that 4 or 5 teams are in on Brian Dozier. Rumors being floated that the Dodgers are looking at Solarte for 2nd Base. Both Rumors probably floated by the Twins and the Dodgers to get each other's attention... So... I assume the Dodgers are still the front runner. It's my logic and it holds no value.
  22. Washington is cornering the market on pitchers that start with S
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