Riverbrian

This team needs a go get everything type defender. I'll be surprisingly comfortable holding my breath each time.

BTW... What I'd do if I were Falvey/Levine at this very moment, I'd use the exact same logic for the Rotation and bullpen. I would have the same 11 position player locks and for the final two spots... I would start both Vargas and Park in Rochester but instead of going with both Adrianaza and Santana. I would get real serious about defense and cut Santana and I would sign Brett Lawrie. Yeah I know... Lawrie isn't exciting anyone right now. He can't stay healthy... Yeah I know... But let's get serious about defense if we are going to take a step in that direction. Lawrie is one of the best defensive 3B in the game and he has a run into walls mentality and some pop. He'd be an exceptional backup who can also play 2B or even OF if needed. With Vargas and Park in AAA... Sano can play an occasional DH while Lawrie plays an occasional 3B. You don't have to sign him to a 6 year deal. Just a 1 year deal and let's see if he can find that potential he once had. It'll just cost us Santana.

Here's Mine: Santana, Gibson, Santiago, Hughes, Mejia, Kinzler, Pressly, Belisle, Rogers, Chargois, Breslow and Haley are the arms. Castro, Jimenez, Mauer, Dozier, Polanco, Adrianaza, Sano, Escobar, Rosario, Grossman, Buxton, Santana and Kepler are the hitters. If anyone wants to read a long post... I'll show my work below. I think you have to work backwards from the current 40 man to end up with the answer. 1. 40 Man is currently full 2. Trevor May will be placed on the 60 Day DL opening up 1 spot. 3. It hasn't been determined what will happen with Perkins but I don't think Perkins will want to wait until June 1 so I think he will be placed on the new 10 day so we won't get a second 40 man slot without exposing someone else to waivers. 4. So... Now you have to ask yourself... who would the Twins (not you or me but the Twins brass) be comfortable losing or believe they can slide through waivers and retain to open up an extra 40 man slot. Bullpen possible 40 man cut considerations: Boshers, O'Rourke, Tonkin and Haley and Position Player Possible 40 man cuts: Santana, Adrianaza and Vargas. I do not believe anybody else on the 40 man is a serious cut consideration. 5. Next you have to determine who they would add to the 40 man roster so they can put them on the 25 man. 6. Gimenez... Gimenez looks like he has clearly out performed Murphy and I think he is the 1st choice to add to the roster and take over May's open 40 man spot. Personally... I'm not a fan of both Garver and Murphy climbing over each other for playing time in Rochester but I think Gimenez is the clear back up choice based on performance in a small sample size and MLB experience. 7. Breslow... If Breslow is making the team and it sounds like he might. Someone has to go off the 40 man to make room. Boshers and O'Rourke have options and do not have to be exposed to waivers and can be stashed as depth and this makes them more valuable in my eyes and that means that either Tonkin or Haley will have to be removed from the 40 man to make room for Breslow. I think they like Haley and would like to keep him around. They had the 1st selection in the rule 5 and could have taken anybody they wanted and this is the guy they wanted. If they can't work out a trade for Haley with Boston... Tonkin has to be the one who is released. I believe someone will claim Tonkin. Say your goodbyes now. 8. The only other option for keeping Tonkin on the roster while making room for Breslow and hanging on to Haley would be for a roster cut of either Santana, Adrianaza or Vargas but you have to ask yourself this... Is Tonkin worth hanging on to at any expense. And perhaps most importantly... Keeping Tonkin means keeping him on the 25 man and that means that either Rogers or Chargois will not have a spot on the 25 man. Tonkin has to be gone. 9. Vogelsong... I think the May injury opened a door for Vogelsong but in the end... common sense will prevail and a 39 year old with an 88 MPH fastball that also hasn't put up good numbers for 4 years and hasn't put up good numbers in Ft. Myers this year... and... and... must be added to the 40 man and cause releasing someone else to accommodate his questionable addition is too much to overcome. I don't think it will happen but if it does... HE BETTER BE WORTH IT!!! His addition will cost us a lefty bullpen option or a Haley... or one of Santana, Adrianaza or Vargas. I wouldn't trade any of those choices straight up for Vogelsong... I just don't see it happening. 10. There should be 13 position player spots available for the 25 man roster. I am assuming that Castro, Gimenez, Mauer, Dozier, Polanco, Escobar, Sano, Rosario, Buxton, Kepler and Grossman are locks. That's 11 and it leaves two positions for Santana, Adrianaza, Vargas, Park or a surprise. 11. Park... He looks great but he was taken off the 40 man and he would have to be re-added to the 40 man in order to make the 25 man and this will cost us a player. No matter how well Park has performed in the spring. I think it's simply easier to stash him in AAA and wait until the 1st injury to call him up. We will have more data on who should come off the 40 man to make room by then and more data on how Park is doing in AAA. He doesn't need to be rushed onto a roster spot. 12. Kennys Vargas... The Twins secured an extra option for Vargas so he can be sent down and I'm betting that there are some in the meeting rooms who are advocating that. And Surprisingly... I also think he should be sent down to Rochester to start the season. Here's the deal... I am personally a big Vargas fan... The ball comes off his bat at 12 Million miles an hour... I think he can become a nice contributor and I've said many times that he was screwed by Molitor last year after having a beautiful July and he is my poster boy as a result. But... Man... He looks real messed up right now. First off... he has been beaten out of the starting Puerto Rico 1B job by someone called TJ Rivera who is the #30 Prospect in the Mets system and not even a 1B. Vargas has played very little and when he has played it has been strikeout after strikeout. The WBC has been horrible for him and he is missing valuable fix whatever is wrong with him time in Ft. Myers. He looks like he has to solve some issues in Rochester. However... I think if the Twins send him to Rochester... and use up that one option right away... He's done because hat means he gets called up when someone goes on the 15 day DL and he will have a short window to prove himself with possible limited playing time and when someone returns from the DL... he will be exposed to waivers if he doesn't establish himself from the get go and that will be about the same time that other squads will be looking for a big hitter on the cheap to replace an injury or something... So... He will be gone. So in conclusion and in clearly twisted logic. The only chance that Vargas has is: Make the opening day roster when he doesn't look ready and give him the DH job when he doesn't look ready and hope he finds his stroke in the short meantime. Will the Twins do this? I'm not so sure... I would... but will the Twins? I think Point #13 may happen instead. 13. Adrianaza and Santana... Here is where it gets interesting to me... On the Surface it looks simple... Either Adrianaza and Santana for one spot and either Park or Vargas for the other spot and call it done. Neither Adrianaza or Santana have options available and both would have to be exposed to waivers and it is possible that both could clear waivers... But... I think Molitor wants Santana to stay and I think Falvey/Levine want Adrianaza to stay as Polanco defensive insurance. I would be both surprised and not surprised if both Adrianaza and Santana take the final roster spots while Vargas and Park are both in Rochester to start the year. Santana is currently the spring training AB leader and he is playing every single position that Molitor can think of... He is clearly being test drove and I think Adrianaza was added for a reason. I'm not saying this will happen but I am saying that I will not rule this out. 14. Grossman becomes the everyday DH if #13 happens and his time in the OF will be very limited as a result. Vargas and Park will compete real hard for that next man up position. If anyone gets hurt...anyone besides a catcher and Vargas or Park will be called up. Because Grossman can play some OF and we have IF Depth coming out of our ears. 15. Surprise considerations: Let's look at them... I don't think Shuck or Stubbs will make the squad. They haven't lit the grapefruits on fire and that's what they needed to do. Paulsen not likely because it would mean that Paulsen beat Park out for the job in spring training and he did not do that. If Park is going down for convenience than Paulsen can conveniently not make the 25 man. 16. The 5th spot in the rotation. I have ruled Vogelsong out using common sense in point #9. Haley did not grab the job with both hands and will have to be hid in the back of the bullpen instead of thrown directly to the wolves. So unless the Twins grab a last minute cut from another roster which is possible. The 5th spot will go to someone on the 40 man and it's either Berrios, Mejia or Duffey. Flip a three headed coin and stay tuned to TwinsDaily. I'll say Mejia right now based upon that 11 strikeout performance but I will change my mind to Berrios if he is lights out in the WBC Championship game. On the other hand Duffey looked great today and he looked great in 2015. So... Santana, Gibson, Santiago, Hughes, Mejia, Kinzler, Pressly, Belisle, Rogers, Chargois, Breslow and Haley are the arms. Castro, Jimenez, Mauer, Dozier, Polanco, Adrianaza, Sano, Escobar, Rosario, Grossman, Buxton, Santana and Kepler are the hitters. This isn't what I would do... It's what I think the Twins will do.

Great first post! Welcome to TD Yes... We are missing our chance to sell high on Dozier based upon the numbers he produced last year and length of contract remaining. However... it is clearly not our chance to sell high based upon the market. It seems natural to extend Dozier if his market never materializes... I mean why give him away. However... if his market value never materializes that means that he has very little value and shouldn't be extended because value is value when it comes time to make those decisions. Supply and Demand He's great... but if everyone has got one? That means he can be replaced at less cost. In the end... I think the 2B Market will shift favorably and he will get moved before he hits free agency.

AND EXPOSE DANTANA TO WAIVERS?

Yep Never ask a player to turn it off... Ever. We need more players like this... Not less. You practice these type of plays to get better at doing them when they count. Basketball players are worthless when they play carefully with 4 fouls trying to avoid the 5th. It's the GM's job to have a suitable replacement whenever injuries occur and injuries occur even if they are bubble wrapped. You can't spend 24 million on a guy who frames pitches because of the advantage it gives pitchers and then turn around and say that the advantage of robbing that guy of a triple isn't worth the risk.

This would be the keeping Escobar, Adrianaza and Danny Santana scenerio.

It makes a sense... Key strike calls can give pitchers an advantage, losing strikes would be a disadvantage and framing stats sure seem to be repeatable because the guys at the top of the list are at the top of the list every year it seems. I won't argue that it's real. But I still believe that CERA should correlate and it doesn't seem to.

Starters: It looks pretty locked in right now... Santana, Santiago, Gibson, Hughes and May. The Twins won't cut Santiago, Gibson or Hughes and the May saga needs to end. I don't have a problem with Berrios starting in the minors... If he performs... he will be up soon because somebody is going to tweak something. But... Please... Please... Please... I beg Falvey/Lavine/Antony/Molitor/Some People to be extremely intolerant of poor pitching performance. If any of those guys are sitting with ERA's in the 5... DO SOMETHING ABOUT IT and be QUICK ABOUT IT. Don't just sit there and let it happen. Bullpen: It looks like Perkins may start on the DL so that means... Kinzler to close with Pressly and Belisle or setting up. Chargois will be next in line to one of those top three spots if he performs. Rogers is in and Haley will most likely be stashed here unless the Twins pull off a trade. That leaves one spot to compete for in my mind. No idea who it will be but I assume he will most likely be left handed. Catcher: Castro and... I don't know. It's nice to have options. I've never seen him but I'm hopeful for Garver in the future so I hope he is the #1 in Rochester. I would love to see the Twins develop a catcher and Garver is that hope right now. I'd rather he play the lead role with the Red Wings instead of a backup role in Minnesota. 2B/SS: Dozier of course at 2B and SS is the only real interesting spot to be determined. If Polanco has "some people" still in the organization that doubt his ability to handle SS defensively... I think they are still speaking up. Why stop now because after all... Polanco didn't prove anybody wrong playing SS in the bigs. If Adrianaza is the defensive talent that people say he is... I think the Twins may end up with him starting at SS with Polanco moving into a utility role. This decision will become easier to make if Polanco doesn't calm nerves with the glove down in Ft. Myers or if Adrianaza shows anything at all with the bat. If Polanco has any kind of sophomore slump at the plate... His defense won't save him either. IF/OF 25th Man utility spot: If Adrianaza comes north... this potentially moves Escobar into this spot and he replaces Santana... Escobar has played a little outfield so this wouldn't be totally crazy. If Adrianaza goes to Rochester... Escobar will be backing up in the infield and Santana is once again this guy. Kind of a catch 22... if you want Santana gone... cheer for Adrianaza... however... Adrianaza may push Polanco into less playing time. Go ahead and sing the song... "You can't always get what you want" You can't always get what you want" but if you try sometimes... OF: Buxton, Rosario, Kepler, Grossman. I'll go on record as saying... I sure wish we had a proven MLB'er to join this group. That's a lot of talent that has yet to establish itself. I don't think a proven MLB'er is gonna show up so that's the group. Grossman or Escobar/Santana will have to step into a spot if Rosario or Kepler tank and tanking can't be discounted. We are talking about youth here... it happens all the time. Clearly I am not part of the "they are going to lose anyway crowd". I'm part of the "Damn it... perform like your career depends on it" crowd. DH: If everything goes swimmingly with Buxton, Rosario or Kepler. Grossman hit enough to be strongly considered for DH duties and I'm not sold that Molitor is just going to hand that job to Vargas. I don't really want Grossman in the OF but I don't want him sitting on the bench after the way he performed at the plate. You don't cut one of your better 2016 bats and you gotta find him at-bats. I'll be watching how Molitor juggles this. Molitor has to do a better job in 2017 and I hope he lets the players decide on the field. 1B/3B: Mauer, Sano and Vargas -- Done Deal unless the Twins sign Morneau or something. Park has to earn his way back up and wait for injury or Vargas failure. I only see 3 spots open... 1. Bullpen 2. Backup Catcher 3. SS (Starter or Backup)

None of this is shocking. There was a lot of what I considered "not on the same page" stuff happening last year. I have no idea how decisions were or are made at 1 Twins way but i'm fairly comfortable in imagining that Molitor would be part of the dynamic. Everyone in the room is part of the dynamic and ultimately Terry Ryan is responsible for that staffing. When Paul says "some people" he may have been part of that "some people" group just because he wasn't able to influence the outcome or agreed with the assessment. There are many times in my career where I have accepted responsibility on the basis that I failed to convince others. "This is my fault because I wasn't able to convince you". Manager change is a change beyond a new guy in the dugout. He is a new dynamic in advocacy. In my opinion... the Twins for the past 5 years have struggled as a whole to plan for future potential needs at the MLB level. SS, DH/1B, 3B, the bullpen, the rotation and CF CF CF CF CF... I'm typing CF 5 times because the approach to CF has been shortsighted and awful and they never changed course. They just kept trying the same stuff over and over. It's on Ryan... I don't see the Polanco error as fatal but It's on Ryan... and Molitor has to accept some blame as well for either agreeing with the assessments or failing to convince others. I think that's fair.

I'm not sure what Randy Levine was thinking when he started speaking publicly afterwards... I can't imagine what his words accomplished for moving forward in a positive direction. He had to make the healing process much harder if not impossible and future retention more difficult. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-yankees-may-have-just-ran-dellin-betances-out-of-town/ In my opinion... Betances may have lost his arb case and only got 3 million but I'll bet any of those arbitrators 100 bucks that if the Yankees were to trade him right now... The Yankees would get more than 5 million in value back. What was Levine thinking... The kid just lost an arb case because of saves which he has no control over since the manager assigns the roles and now he's staring up at Chapman so he can't get saves for future arbitration and after you've kicked him in the teeth during the arb process... you take another shot at him publicly. This makes no sense to me at all on many levels.

I think about it a little different (like most things I guess) I don't think Polanco's defense will determine if he's the regular SS...It will be his offense. If Polanco is clearly hitting the ball well... He will get the chance to play defense often and hopefully get better at SS. But if he does any kind of sophomore slumping at the plate... His defense then will not be able to save him and therefore... the Twins might as well go with Adrianaza for the defensive upgrade. Polanco will have to hit to keep the SS gig. Of course Molitor may not take into consideration any of these factors... So I guess... this would be how I would do it.

Hats off to all of you and congrats to the vision, guts and creativity. May you reach 99 John along with this site. That would be 4 or 5 years in the future I suppose? I don't know... I'm bad at guessing ages. And Glunn and his efforts. He is easily one of the most worthwhile humans that anyone could meet. He is an automatic upgrade to any culture.

It doesn't look a day over 4

As long as the ball continues to leave his bat at 471 MPH... Optimism is easy.

Vargas Grossman and Park are currently DH options so I don't think its a total potential punt.

Some clearly are not that high on him and that's ok with me. To be honest... I'm not even asking for 500 PA 's in 2017. If he is struggling... So be it... do what you mast do. I will be looking at 2017 as a prove it year for the majority of the roster. I'm only asking that if he is getting the job done... let him continue. I don't want to see a guy with OPS over a grand benched when a low OPS Vet comes off the disabled list to reclaim his job that he was struggling with. I've grown distrustful of the evaluations that are leading to decision making that causes the benching of a player who has an OPS over 1.000.

Yep He goes on an incredible tear and is benched as a reward. Hard to build up those good numbers when your good swings are cut short by the guy who holds your fate in his hands. He struggled in 2015 no doubt but there are many who did the same in year 2. I'm not going to declare him a sure fire superstar... He may end up on the scrap heap of baseball history but he's earned the right to try and have a career and not be put to sleep by some manager with an opinion of what he should be doing that isn't matching up with what he is doing. Let him play himself out of a job when someone actually out produces him and that didn't happen in 2016. Molitor flat out pissed me off last August 4th. I honestly didn't care that much about Vargas prior. Now he's my poster boy. Polanco and Kepler sitting on the bench while the regulars drove the team out of contention by the end of April was when I started thinking that Molitor just might be incapable of adjusting his pre-formed opinion on the fly. His public apology to Brian Dozier for finally sitting him down for one (or two) games after a lengthy period of the struggles at the plate was when I was pretty sure that Molitor might Have locked himself in to pre-opinions. His treatment of Vargas certainly removed any lingering doubts. Let me conclude by saying that I have no idea if Vargas will make it or not if given regular playing time. I just think it was indisputable that Molitor benched a guy who was red hot in favor of someone who wasn't even luke warm.

I am suspicious about pitch framing overall but in an attempt to stay open minded... I will say this: The Good Framers appear to be Good Framers year after year. So... the skill sure seems to show some consistency. However... in an attempt to stay closed minded. I still contend that if Pitch Framing truly saves enough runs to pay millions for the elite. You would see correlations between pitch framing and CERA and I don't really see those correlations. In the end... Falvey/Lavine have my support and they obviously buy into the value of pitch framing and I won't stand here and say they are wrong. In a Q&A with Rand of the Trib back in November. Thad Levine stated that he felt the Twins were a little behind in the resources provided to the staff. He mentioned that the first step would be in systems and resources and the 2nd step would be evaluation after everyone has been provided with those resources and tools. He was talking about the staff at the time but the pitching staff also need the advantage of improved resources before being evaluated. For the pitching staff... Castro is a tool.

I still like the signing of Park for the simple reason that the Twins went out in the IFA Market and competed against everyone else and completed a deal. The Twins need to take these type of risks to compete. I was also never concerned about the logjam because there is no logjam unless multiple players actually perform at a major league level and that hasn't happened yet so gather your assets where you may. Having Mauer and Vargas should never prevent you from adding someone who might be better yet. No matter how this ends... Overall... I'm happy with the signing. But... I sure wish we were better at this. Nishioka was perhaps the worst scouting assessment possible and with Park... the concerns came kind of quick. I remember listening to Tom Kelly on the radio with Ruesse last March. Tom said that Park was noticeably struggling with the increased talent level and he was wasn't sure he'd be able to adjust. I like the signing... I just wish the Twins were better at it.

I believe that Peralta and Carpenter are comparable to what most fear Sano and Polanco will be.

I have seen Belisle pitch a few times... I remember liking his slider and he seemed to throw it a lot... but I've always thought of him as a good low leverage guy. You feel more comfortable when he came into games with the bases empty.

"Wins Above Santiago" That could catch on Who wants to make t-shirts?

Personally... I wish Mr. Pohlad would have listened to Nick Nelson last year when he posted back in May? Nick suggested the idea to hire a POBO and it should have been done ASAP after determining that you were going to make a change. Because by waiting... New POBO and GM are brought on board after the world series and the off season is here before they have their socks put away in a drawer. Assess the operations... the players... Whose scouting reports do you trust and use? Do yo have a new way of doing things? If you do... a head start window was passed by when they delayed the hiring of Falvey or any other POBO. When you consider the timeline of the hiring and the internal groundwork that has to be put in place. Falvey and Levine have very little choice but to listen to the same advocates who got us where we are right now... Molitor... Antony... the Western Regional Scout and the traveling secretary are still in the building. This off-season was destined to be a disappointment because Pohlad and St. Peter decided that it could wait until the end of the season. WIth that said... GO GET SOME RELIEVERS... I'll take Blanton and Smith please.

Well deserved Are Our greatest manager ever!!!!