Riverbrian

I'm always excited about opening day. This year... Today.at least.. I find myself excited about the potential of the new Joe M conversation for thought #4. The potential of this new format is making me smile at least.

I normally try to avoid negativity and normally especially on opening day. However... it couldn't be helped this year. I decided yesterday that Richard III was where I was going and once you go that direction. You are miles away from positive. So here we are... with the Twins. So... knock out a home run... shout a hip hoo-ray.

I would have went with "outdoo'd" or "outdoneth" but it works none the less.

Shakespeare sets the scene at the very beginning of Richard III. That’s right… I’m pulling out Shakespeare on the opening game thread of the 2017 season. Shakespeare uses a lot of fancy words with unnecessary apostrophes, but after someone explains it all to you, the realization is that our Twins are a lot like Richard III. "An Ace! An Ace! My Kingdom for an Ace." Like the soon to be King Richard, our Twins are introduced to us as deformed, unfinished, sent before their time into this breathing 2017 season. It is supposed to be a time of happiness, a time of peace, because our family troubles have come to an end with the removal of King Ryan but yet, here we are anyway, an actor on the stage talking to himself, preparing the upcoming misery. Another comparable… Actors who portray Richard III tend to overact significantly and the construction of these Twins has caused severe overreacting on TD. Overreacting just like I over-wrote this beginning by starting 2017 with Shakespeare. I could have gone anywhere else. It’s 2017 and the Twins return with the same rotation and with minimal improvement to the bullpen… that was our off-season… that was “The winter of OUR discontent.” Here are some things to think about: 1. Opening Day – Despite the obvious negative tone of the introduction, it is opening day and the possibility of 162-0 still exists no matter how unlikely and that alone should be cause for the slightest of optimism. There are many ways to skin a cat so it’s possible that we are about to witness a new way to do exactly that. Although, we would all feel better about that possibility if they actually located a cat and if they were not holding a spoon while waiting for one to come near. 2. Our Twins – We are curious to see if Dozier can come close to duplicating last year. We are curious to see if this is the year that Buxton and Sano breakout. We are curious to see if Kepler, Rosario and Polanco can demonstrate major league capability. (Pause)… I just realized that it was curiosity that killed the cat. No wonder Falvey/Levine can’t find the damn cat. 3. The Royals – The Royals will be an interesting team to watch this year. The Royals hit a fork in the road this off-season with two paths to choose from. With Hosmer, Moustakas, Cain and others heading to free agency at the end of the year, one path was to trade these players with value remaining for younger talent and start the rebuilding process right away. The other path was to hang on to these players and go for it one more time and this was the path they chose. A baseball season is a long run and like Led Zeppelin said, “In the long run… there’s still time to change the road you’re on.” I had to make a similar decision once… Should I get some more gas before my car runs out or keep driving hoping to reach my destination before it does. I chose to keep driving my car and it worked just fine. The moral to that story is this: Never buy gas for your car!!! 4. Today’s Joe M Conversation (For all of 2017… I’ve decided that thought #4 will be a conversation between Joe Mauer, Joe Maddon and Joe McCarthy) -- Maddon: Hey Joe, what are you doing. Mauer: Well… McCarthy was hungry and I needed to work on my hitting to left field so I’m dropping apples into my Joe Mauer quick swing while McCarthy waits for the apple chunks to eat in left field. Maddon: That’s brilliant… The apple is the right size for the tubing. You are getting your hitting in and McCarthy gets some food… That’s a great idea. Mauer: It also works with those nice round dinner rolls but they don’t go as far so McCarthy has to move in a little. McCarthy: (Coming in from left field to join the conversation). Yep… Apples and Dinner Rolls work great. We also tried Meat Loaf but it got stuck and it didn’t work. Maddon: Ahh… yes… I suppose… Meat Loaf… well… Two Out of Three Ain’t Bad. 5. Perfection – I read a lot of resumes in my job. I've come to the conclusion that these pieces of paper are the closest to perfection that these people will ever come to. ____________________ Game-time forecast: 53 deg F, cloudy with a 55-65% chance of rain, winds from the NE at 11mph. Lineups: ROYALS Alex Gordon (L) LF Mike Moustakas (L) 3B Lorenzo Cain (R ) CF Eric Hosmer (L) 1B Salvador Perez (R ) C Brandon Moss (L) DH Paulo Orlando (R ) RF Alcides Escobar (R ) SS Raul Mondesi (S) 2B Duffy, P TWINS Dozier (R ) 2B Robbie Grossman (S) DH Byron Buxton (R ) CF Joe Mauer (L) 1B Miguel Sano (R ) 3B Jason Castro (L) C Jorge Polanco (S) SS Max Kepler (L) RF Eddie Rosario (L) LF Santana, P Win Twins! Play ball! Click here to view the article

I've read quite a few comments stating that Falvey/Lavine look a lot like Terry Ryan based on the off season moves. I read these comments and thnk to myself... Of course they do. All those people employed by the Twins have jobs and they do something. They sit in the meetings and they speak up. They are a huge part of the process that produces the final product. A GM or POBO don't sit in a room isolated with a laptop and build rosters like you and I put together our fantasy baseball teams. I'm not aware of a house cleaning so basically... The same people that were the machine that produced what we Were... Are the same people that are the machine that is producing what we are doing now. Imagine yourself walking in as the head of an existing operation in 4th quarter. Meeting your new staff for the first time. Do you start by just tossing them all out and have an entire new staff by 1st quarter before you can evaluate them individually? Probably not because there may be some babies in that bath water. If you don't toss them out... Do you simply ignore them? Probably not because that isn't a very smart way to build what will need to be important relationships with the babies in the bath water in the future. So what do you do? You start by listening to them and taking them seriously while starting by changing the structure. You give them the direction and the new tools that will be different under your leadership. Things they need to make better decisions and provide better advocacy and counsel and then you evaluate them after you see how they do under the new system. If they can't adapt... A replacement will be searched for and found but this is going to take a little time and I'm guessing that is what 2017 is going to be. You don't like Tonkin or Santana. There are people in the room who obviously do like them and those people probably liked them last year and they are still here. Increased analytics is part of this process... Jason Castro is part of this process. It's not time to blame Falvey/Lavine yet. 2017 needs to be the year that they start the evaluations and start to clean things up one individual at a time in the offices and on the field when the data starts rolling in. I'm not disappointed by who begins the year... My disappointment will begin when I see who remains if the ship goes down again.

I don't think bullpens have changed yet because they the old wall just hasn't been knocked down yet. Like everything in life... change is slow from established ways. Those who are open to new ideas and have been paying attention will have a competitive advantage in my opinion until the rest catch up.

Indians had Kluber and... a bunch of guys on the disabled list. The Indians had Trevor Mr. Drone Finger Bauer trying to not get blood on the baseball. The Indians had Josh Tomlin surpassing his normal heights and Andrew Miller who held it all together. If baseball wasn't watching the Royals win with a great pen and mediocre rotation... I hope it was watching the Indians do the same thing. Bullpen is the new currency. The Yankees may not have needed Chapman and Miller but that lack of need got them a new shiny top ranked farm system. How happy would we be right now with Glaybar Torres if Terry Ryan had the guts to go get Chapman when he was available after the Dodgers walked away. The Yankees got him cheap with a questionable rotation and they already had Miller and Betences. It's all about value and the Yankees beat everyone. Gather ye assets where you may is what Shakespeare said. Bullpen is the new currency. If I have a criticism of Falvey/Lavine thus far.... It would be the light attempt this off season at the building of our bullpen. FA starters sucked but FA relievers didn't. I would have liked to see them dive in. Gather ye assets where you may. I know we are all disappointed that we lost a much needed starter and I'm not happy about it either but a talented Jay in the bullpen isn't a complete waste.

Andrew Miller also spells his name completely differently than Tyler Jay does. Clearly, the author deserves as much disrespect as you can throw at him. I find it interesting that two separate people can read the same article and reach conclusions that are miles from each other. I read that article and came away agreeing with him. The article to me was about increasing bullpen value and Andrew Miller is an example of why talented bullpen arms are going to increase in value. We have all been shown a new way to do it. The Royals have shown everyone that you can win with a bullpen. Francona has shown everyone that using Miller in the 5th inning or whenever a key moment arrives and for longer than one inning and done just might be a better use of a talented bullpen arm. I felt the author was hoping that Jay will be good enough to handle a role like that. He may not be as dominant as Miller but the value of such a guy is going to go up now that the Indians have created successful precidence. I think the author was hoping that Jay may thrive in the bullpen like Miller did. Miller was terrible as a starter for 6 years before becoming the guy you described. Miller was Terrible in Detroit... Terrible in Florida.... He ran plum out of options and the Marlins gave him away to the Red Sox. He was terrible as a starter for one more year in Boston before finding himself in the bullpen. So there's another way that Jay and Miller are different. Jay never failed as a starter as bad or as long as Miller did.

I like it when people use my made up words!!! (High Five)

You could be right on all of that. I have no idea and I won't assume anything about the level of coaching at the big leagues or AAA since I've never watched them do their jobs. Concern isn't the right word for me. I just simply hope that Berrios will be really good in Rochester and if he is better than Dufffey or Mejia in Rochester... He will get called up when the first man up is called for. I'm like everyone else... I'm tapping my foot waiting for Berrios to give us MLB hope for the future. I just don't believe that starting April 3 in Minnesota will speed up the process... in my opinion.

I think I've understood you along. However... I told my wife I understood last week and I came home from the Grocery Store with Cottage Cheese. Turns out that she wanted Broccoli. GM's put together a roster during the Winter and that is what they do. You don't sign Jason Castro to a 24 million dollar deal and then tell him that he will be competing for a roster spot with Gimenez, Murphy and Garver. The GM will immediately project Castro as the #1 and there will be no competition for that spot regardless if Garver hits .500 while Castro hits .145. If the GM doesn't do this type of thing... he will never get a player to sign with him. I'm pretty sure that the GM decided that Santiago would have a rotation spot and no competition for that spot when he picked up the multi million dollar option. He has to make decisions like that well before spring training. The GM decided that Sano would be the starting 3B with no competition when Plouffe was released and no significant 3B was signed to replace Plouffe. The GM has to make these type of decisions prior to spring training because he needs to know if he should pick up this player or that player and in the process of doing this... he is basically locking down spots on the opening day roster for a majority of the players (if they remain healthy in spring training). By the time he is done the majority of the opening day roster is locked down before the first player rolls into the Fort. There will be only a couple of legit battles and even those legit battles probably start with a strong favorite that has to lose the job because GM's have to project a front runner to determine need and level of replacement. I have no idea if Berrios had a legitimate shot at the rotation but IMO... I don't think it is good strategy for a manager to tell someone fairly important that he has no shot at the rotation. Or maybe he did... "You have our blessing to join team Puerto Rico. We think it will be a long shot for you to make the opening day rotation. You'll report to Rochester when you return... don't worry about it... we believe you are important part of our future... have fun representing your country". Or "It's your choice... but if you choose to go to Puerto Rico for the WBC... you will have no shot at making the rotation. Your call... go if you want and please understand the ramifications of your decision" Molitor or someone may have had a conversation like that with Berrios before he left Ft. Myers. Maybe the Twins said "Have fun... we will be watching". I don't know but I don't believe... Molitor showed up one day at Ft. Myers... looked around and asked Allen where Berrios was??? Only to be shocked that he took off for the WBC last night. Berrios going to Puerto Rico was probably already baked into the decision making process. He reported to Rochester right quick after returning. Baseball and the CBA basically dictate that you must stash younger players in AAA because you will need a decent replacement or 3 or 4 during the season. Every team does it... Pitchers with options... even amazing ones... start the year in AAA like 95% of the time because they can be stashed in AAA and the veterans can't. It'll happen again next year and it'll happen again on every major league team. I think it's incredible that Mejia is still a consideration. Or Duffey for that matter... since they are still stashable. I just made the word "Stashable" up.

He dominated AAA and then he got called up and didn't dominate MLB. He did the complete opposite. If he starts in AAA this year and doesn't dominate AAA... Are you advocating that the Twins call him up anyway because he dominated AAA last year? IMO... He is going to need to pitch better than Duffey or Mejia in Rochester to get that first crack at the very least. As for the phony competition. Berrios should be hoping for phony competition because if it was an actual competition... he would have lost.

1. I don't agree with the word "Block" because it makes Hector Santiago, Kyle Gibson, Phil Hughes all seem insurmountable and injury proof. There are a variety of reasons why Berrios will start in AAA and why it makes sense. 2. Giolito, Lopez and Kopech will start 2017 in the minors for the Chicago White Sox. Even with Rodon going down with an injury. The White Sox will not start Giolito, Lopez or Kopech and instead roll with someone named Holmberg as the 5th starter. 3. Tyler Glasnow... will probably start in AAA while the Pirates go with Hutchison or Brault. 4. Jose DeLeon... Despite hearing a lot of comments over the winter about Jose DeLeon's immediate MLB Readiness. Jose DeLeon will not be able to show that readiness immediately because the final spot went to Andriese. 5. Josh Hader... isn't going to be opening in Milwaukee. He's already been assigned to the minors and will wait his turn while Garza and Peralta and Nelson give it a shot. 6. Sean Newcomb... You won't see him either... The Braves paid 7.5 million to RA Dickey. Newcomb will have to wait. Every team in MLB handles it this way for a variety of reasons. In my opinion... Every MLB team would have sent Berrios down to AAA to start the season especially when you consider his lack of spring game action... his 8 plus ERA in 2016... Service Time Management... Rotation Depth Considerations and other things.

I can't give you an exact date But... In 2016... Alex Meyer was called up from Rochester on April 25 because both Gibson and Santana hit the DL. 2015... Trevor May was called up from Rochester on April 11 because Nolasco needed the DL. 2014... Kris Johnson was called up from Rochester on May 1 because Mike Pelfrey was DL bound. An opening day starting 5 has stayed intact as the starting 5 for the entire year like maybe... zero times in the history of all teams in all of baseball (Someone can fact check that statement because it seems like a big needle/haystack project and I don't have that kind of time). Historically... The starting 5 can't even make it out of the month of April it seems. We will see Berrios soon enough unless he looks like he isn't ready in Rochester. So... I'd really focus on pitching good for Rochester right now if I'm Jose.

I'm not shocked...I'm not disappointed either.

I think there are some important things for Polanco to work on. Footwork primarily to increase the accuracy of throws... but Arm Strength? I'm not buying it. http://m.mlb.com/video/topic/7417714/v706450083/mindet-polanco-makes-great-diving-stop-for-the-out It took an arm to make this play... he could do it again.

I used to make catches like that playing local softball well into my 30's. The only injury I suffered was the loss of my ability to realize it was only softball.

I read 78 reported in the Pioneer Press but Brian Murphy made it sound deliberate at this stage of rehab. I don't like the word shoulder and I still find that to be the scariest word in the whole article.

This team needs a go get everything type defender. I'll be surprisingly comfortable holding my breath each time.

BTW... What I'd do if I were Falvey/Levine at this very moment, I'd use the exact same logic for the Rotation and bullpen. I would have the same 11 position player locks and for the final two spots... I would start both Vargas and Park in Rochester but instead of going with both Adrianaza and Santana. I would get real serious about defense and cut Santana and I would sign Brett Lawrie. Yeah I know... Lawrie isn't exciting anyone right now. He can't stay healthy... Yeah I know... But let's get serious about defense if we are going to take a step in that direction. Lawrie is one of the best defensive 3B in the game and he has a run into walls mentality and some pop. He'd be an exceptional backup who can also play 2B or even OF if needed. With Vargas and Park in AAA... Sano can play an occasional DH while Lawrie plays an occasional 3B. You don't have to sign him to a 6 year deal. Just a 1 year deal and let's see if he can find that potential he once had. It'll just cost us Santana.

Here's Mine: Santana, Gibson, Santiago, Hughes, Mejia, Kinzler, Pressly, Belisle, Rogers, Chargois, Breslow and Haley are the arms. Castro, Jimenez, Mauer, Dozier, Polanco, Adrianaza, Sano, Escobar, Rosario, Grossman, Buxton, Santana and Kepler are the hitters. If anyone wants to read a long post... I'll show my work below. I think you have to work backwards from the current 40 man to end up with the answer. 1. 40 Man is currently full 2. Trevor May will be placed on the 60 Day DL opening up 1 spot. 3. It hasn't been determined what will happen with Perkins but I don't think Perkins will want to wait until June 1 so I think he will be placed on the new 10 day so we won't get a second 40 man slot without exposing someone else to waivers. 4. So... Now you have to ask yourself... who would the Twins (not you or me but the Twins brass) be comfortable losing or believe they can slide through waivers and retain to open up an extra 40 man slot. Bullpen possible 40 man cut considerations: Boshers, O'Rourke, Tonkin and Haley and Position Player Possible 40 man cuts: Santana, Adrianaza and Vargas. I do not believe anybody else on the 40 man is a serious cut consideration. 5. Next you have to determine who they would add to the 40 man roster so they can put them on the 25 man. 6. Gimenez... Gimenez looks like he has clearly out performed Murphy and I think he is the 1st choice to add to the roster and take over May's open 40 man spot. Personally... I'm not a fan of both Garver and Murphy climbing over each other for playing time in Rochester but I think Gimenez is the clear back up choice based on performance in a small sample size and MLB experience. 7. Breslow... If Breslow is making the team and it sounds like he might. Someone has to go off the 40 man to make room. Boshers and O'Rourke have options and do not have to be exposed to waivers and can be stashed as depth and this makes them more valuable in my eyes and that means that either Tonkin or Haley will have to be removed from the 40 man to make room for Breslow. I think they like Haley and would like to keep him around. They had the 1st selection in the rule 5 and could have taken anybody they wanted and this is the guy they wanted. If they can't work out a trade for Haley with Boston... Tonkin has to be the one who is released. I believe someone will claim Tonkin. Say your goodbyes now. 8. The only other option for keeping Tonkin on the roster while making room for Breslow and hanging on to Haley would be for a roster cut of either Santana, Adrianaza or Vargas but you have to ask yourself this... Is Tonkin worth hanging on to at any expense. And perhaps most importantly... Keeping Tonkin means keeping him on the 25 man and that means that either Rogers or Chargois will not have a spot on the 25 man. Tonkin has to be gone. 9. Vogelsong... I think the May injury opened a door for Vogelsong but in the end... common sense will prevail and a 39 year old with an 88 MPH fastball that also hasn't put up good numbers for 4 years and hasn't put up good numbers in Ft. Myers this year... and... and... must be added to the 40 man and cause releasing someone else to accommodate his questionable addition is too much to overcome. I don't think it will happen but if it does... HE BETTER BE WORTH IT!!! His addition will cost us a lefty bullpen option or a Haley... or one of Santana, Adrianaza or Vargas. I wouldn't trade any of those choices straight up for Vogelsong... I just don't see it happening. 10. There should be 13 position player spots available for the 25 man roster. I am assuming that Castro, Gimenez, Mauer, Dozier, Polanco, Escobar, Sano, Rosario, Buxton, Kepler and Grossman are locks. That's 11 and it leaves two positions for Santana, Adrianaza, Vargas, Park or a surprise. 11. Park... He looks great but he was taken off the 40 man and he would have to be re-added to the 40 man in order to make the 25 man and this will cost us a player. No matter how well Park has performed in the spring. I think it's simply easier to stash him in AAA and wait until the 1st injury to call him up. We will have more data on who should come off the 40 man to make room by then and more data on how Park is doing in AAA. He doesn't need to be rushed onto a roster spot. 12. Kennys Vargas... The Twins secured an extra option for Vargas so he can be sent down and I'm betting that there are some in the meeting rooms who are advocating that. And Surprisingly... I also think he should be sent down to Rochester to start the season. Here's the deal... I am personally a big Vargas fan... The ball comes off his bat at 12 Million miles an hour... I think he can become a nice contributor and I've said many times that he was screwed by Molitor last year after having a beautiful July and he is my poster boy as a result. But... Man... He looks real messed up right now. First off... he has been beaten out of the starting Puerto Rico 1B job by someone called TJ Rivera who is the #30 Prospect in the Mets system and not even a 1B. Vargas has played very little and when he has played it has been strikeout after strikeout. The WBC has been horrible for him and he is missing valuable fix whatever is wrong with him time in Ft. Myers. He looks like he has to solve some issues in Rochester. However... I think if the Twins send him to Rochester... and use up that one option right away... He's done because hat means he gets called up when someone goes on the 15 day DL and he will have a short window to prove himself with possible limited playing time and when someone returns from the DL... he will be exposed to waivers if he doesn't establish himself from the get go and that will be about the same time that other squads will be looking for a big hitter on the cheap to replace an injury or something... So... He will be gone. So in conclusion and in clearly twisted logic. The only chance that Vargas has is: Make the opening day roster when he doesn't look ready and give him the DH job when he doesn't look ready and hope he finds his stroke in the short meantime. Will the Twins do this? I'm not so sure... I would... but will the Twins? I think Point #13 may happen instead. 13. Adrianaza and Santana... Here is where it gets interesting to me... On the Surface it looks simple... Either Adrianaza and Santana for one spot and either Park or Vargas for the other spot and call it done. Neither Adrianaza or Santana have options available and both would have to be exposed to waivers and it is possible that both could clear waivers... But... I think Molitor wants Santana to stay and I think Falvey/Levine want Adrianaza to stay as Polanco defensive insurance. I would be both surprised and not surprised if both Adrianaza and Santana take the final roster spots while Vargas and Park are both in Rochester to start the year. Santana is currently the spring training AB leader and he is playing every single position that Molitor can think of... He is clearly being test drove and I think Adrianaza was added for a reason. I'm not saying this will happen but I am saying that I will not rule this out. 14. Grossman becomes the everyday DH if #13 happens and his time in the OF will be very limited as a result. Vargas and Park will compete real hard for that next man up position. If anyone gets hurt...anyone besides a catcher and Vargas or Park will be called up. Because Grossman can play some OF and we have IF Depth coming out of our ears. 15. Surprise considerations: Let's look at them... I don't think Shuck or Stubbs will make the squad. They haven't lit the grapefruits on fire and that's what they needed to do. Paulsen not likely because it would mean that Paulsen beat Park out for the job in spring training and he did not do that. If Park is going down for convenience than Paulsen can conveniently not make the 25 man. 16. The 5th spot in the rotation. I have ruled Vogelsong out using common sense in point #9. Haley did not grab the job with both hands and will have to be hid in the back of the bullpen instead of thrown directly to the wolves. So unless the Twins grab a last minute cut from another roster which is possible. The 5th spot will go to someone on the 40 man and it's either Berrios, Mejia or Duffey. Flip a three headed coin and stay tuned to TwinsDaily. I'll say Mejia right now based upon that 11 strikeout performance but I will change my mind to Berrios if he is lights out in the WBC Championship game. On the other hand Duffey looked great today and he looked great in 2015. So... Santana, Gibson, Santiago, Hughes, Mejia, Kinzler, Pressly, Belisle, Rogers, Chargois, Breslow and Haley are the arms. Castro, Jimenez, Mauer, Dozier, Polanco, Adrianaza, Sano, Escobar, Rosario, Grossman, Buxton, Santana and Kepler are the hitters. This isn't what I would do... It's what I think the Twins will do.

Great first post! Welcome to TD Yes... We are missing our chance to sell high on Dozier based upon the numbers he produced last year and length of contract remaining. However... it is clearly not our chance to sell high based upon the market. It seems natural to extend Dozier if his market never materializes... I mean why give him away. However... if his market value never materializes that means that he has very little value and shouldn't be extended because value is value when it comes time to make those decisions. Supply and Demand He's great... but if everyone has got one? That means he can be replaced at less cost. In the end... I think the 2B Market will shift favorably and he will get moved before he hits free agency.

AND EXPOSE DANTANA TO WAIVERS?

Yep Never ask a player to turn it off... Ever. We need more players like this... Not less. You practice these type of plays to get better at doing them when they count. Basketball players are worthless when they play carefully with 4 fouls trying to avoid the 5th. It's the GM's job to have a suitable replacement whenever injuries occur and injuries occur even if they are bubble wrapped. You can't spend 24 million on a guy who frames pitches because of the advantage it gives pitchers and then turn around and say that the advantage of robbing that guy of a triple isn't worth the risk.