Riverbrian

If you look at the current Twins Roster. Kyle Garlick who isn't allowed to face Right Handed Pitching is ranked second in Slugging Percentage. Third place belongs to Nick Gordon. Let me repeat that condescendingly. 2nd place belongs to a guy who isn't allowed to face RH pitching and third place belongs to Nick Gordon. Typical hitting positions like 1B and RF are currently projected to be handled by players (Arraez and Kepler) who did not reach DOUBLE DIGITS in home runs despite over 400 AB's for both. But... whatever... Let me repeat. Kyle Garlick who isn't allowed to face RH pitching is in 2nd place and Nick Gordon is currently ranked third in 2022 slugging. We need a couple of bats who can piss pound that baseball. This is as obvious as a Naked Person walking into a supermarket. Ranked by 2022 Slugging Percentage Buxton .526 Garlick .433 Gordon .427 Miranda .426 Arraez .420 Larnach .406 Polanco .405 Farmer .386 Kirilloff .361 Jeffers .360 Kepler .348 Celestino .302

I have spent way too much time attacking Kepler and I've been telling myself that I should back off. He's a human being and I don't like being that guy. Yet... you say taking a step back offensively? Well... It's obvious now. I have indeed spent way too much time attacking Kepler because if this is the Kepler perception... there is no point in my continuing because... well... the journey is just too long it seems. So here are the actual stats copied and pasted from B-Ref. Kepler Year Age Tm Lg G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB Pos Awards 8 Yrs 837 3361 2955 439 686 162 13 129 400 33 15 345 603 .232 .317 .427 .744 101 1261 30 35 2 24 11 162 Game Avg. 162 651 572 85 133 31 3 25 77 6 3 67 117 .232 .317 .427 .744 101 244 6 2015 22 MIN AL 3 7 7 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 .143 .143 .143 .286 -21 1 0 0 0 0 0 /H9 2016 23 MIN AL 113 447 396 52 93 20 2 17 63 6 2 42 93 .235 .309 .424 .734 96 168 2 3 1 5 3 *9/8H3 2017 24 MIN AL 147 568 511 67 124 32 2 19 69 6 1 47 114 .243 .312 .425 .737 95 217 5 6 1 3 2 *98H/D 2018 25 MIN AL 156 611 532 80 119 30 4 20 58 4 5 71 96 .224 .319 .408 .727 97 217 8 5 0 3 2 *98H/D3 2019 26 MIN AL 134 596 524 98 132 32 0 36 90 1 5 60 99 .252 .336 .519 .855 123 272 5 8 0 4 0 *98/HD MVP-20 2020 27 MIN AL 48 196 171 27 39 9 0 9 23 3 0 22 36 .228 .321 .439 .760 109 75 1 2 0 1 0 *9/8HD 2021 28 MIN AL 121 490 426 61 90 21 4 19 54 10 0 54 96 .211 .306 .413 .719 98 176 2 6 0 4 3 *98/HD 2022 29 MIN AL 115 446 388 54 88 18 1 9 43 3 2 49 66 .227 .318 .348 .666 93 135 7 5 0 4 1 *9/H8D Haniger Year Age Tm Lg G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB Pos Awards 6 Yrs 564 2437 2164 344 565 109 10 112 323 18 6 217 583 .261 .335 .476 .811 123 1030 42 35 1 20 10 162 Game Avg. 162 700 622 99 162 31 3 32 93 5 2 62 167 .261 .335 .476 .811 123 296 12 10 0 6 3 SEA (5 yrs) 530 2314 2055 335 540 107 9 107 306 18 6 205 556 .263 .337 .480 .817 126 986 39 34 1 19 8 ARI (1 yr) 34 123 109 9 25 2 1 5 17 0 0 12 27 .229 .309 .404 .713 83 44 3 1 0 1 2 AL (5 yrs) 530 2314 2055 335 540 107 9 107 306 18 6 205 556 .263 .337 .480 .817 126 986 39 34 1 19 8 NL (1 yr) 34 123 109 9 25 2 1 5 17 0 0 12 27 .229 .309 .404 .713 83 44 3 1 0 1 2 2016 25 ARI NL 34 123 109 9 25 2 1 5 17 0 0 12 27 .229 .309 .404 .713 83 44 3 1 0 1 2 8/7H9 2017 26 SEA AL 96 410 369 58 104 25 2 16 47 5 4 31 93 .282 .352 .491 .843 127 181 9 9 1 0 0 9/87H 2018 27 SEA AL 157 683 596 90 170 38 4 26 93 8 2 70 148 .285 .366 .493 .859 139 294 8 10 0 7 4 *98/7D AS,MVP-11 2019 28 SEA AL 63 283 246 46 54 13 1 15 32 4 0 30 81 .220 .314 .463 .778 108 114 3 5 0 2 1 98/DH 2021 30 SEA AL 157 691 620 110 157 23 2 39 100 1 0 54 169 .253 .318 .485 .804 122 301 12 9 0 8 2 *9D MVP-20 2022 31 SEA AL 57 247 224 31 55 8 0 11 34 0 0 20 65 .246 .308 .429 .736 114 96 7 1 0 2 1 9D

He's not really league average with the bat. He's below league average and if you say close, you'll also need to factor in his position. SS, CF and C will drag that league average closer to where Max lives. Using 100 AB's as a qualifier. He is ranked 37th OPS amongst RF. If Kepler was a SS he would rank 24th. If he was a CF he would rank 23rd. If he was a C he would rank 26th. Below league average in RF is offensively painful and if you choose a defensive specialist at that position. You better have a bat at a defensive position to make up the difference. We currently don't have that guy on the roster. Bottom Line... I don't see a trade match. Let's be honest... if this was an ARB case... He would probably be non-tendered. The Contract is going to pay him 8M... so the Twins might as well keep him and see if the shift rules help him. But... whatever you do... Do not pencil him at RF and say covered. Bring in a big bat to play in a corner.

Brandon Drury is a better choice IMO.

When I think of Mancini... I can't help think about 2019 Mancini. .294 hitter with 35 Ding Dongs. He wasn't quite the same with Baltimore last year but he still hit decently so I would have taken him at the trade deadline last year when the choices were limited to sellers. During the off-season, the choices are not as limited so I'm looking elsewhere for a bigger bang.

I'm pretty sure this is a set up line and I know you went a different direction in your well written article. However... There are probably people out there who think Farmer becomes superfluous if we Sign Correa or one of the big 4 to play SS... or trade for one. I'll say this every chance I can. In Baseball, there is no such thing as superfluous. I'm not sure how many injuries have to happen for some to realize it but apparently the amount of injuries we suffered last year and the year before that isn't enough. We can sit here and minimize this trade by minimizing his talent/abilities and value. The Twins acquired him for a reason. Minimization is not possible with the injuries that will occur because they occur every year. If he is going to play and he will... he can't be superfluous.

Any idea where I send the invoice?

I'd guess that the correlation will be there most of the time because the traditional stats usually do a good job pointing at the good pitchers. With relief pitchers though, I occasionally do this exercise so I can find that guy who is hidden because he won't pitch enough to stabilize his ERA after giving up 5 earned runs that one time. A typical reliever throws around 10 innings a Month. If you throw 10 scoreless innings after that 1 inning of 5 earned. It took a full month to show the world you have a 4.09 ERA when the reality is 10 scoreless innings and one really bad day. Relief pitching is small sample size punishment. It takes forever to correct a wrong. The Vikings are 8-2. After they gave up 5 Earned to the Cowboys in one appearance. They are 229 Points For and 231 Points Against.

Steven Tyler back in 1973 also said "You got to lose to know how to win".

I assume that teams are using similar sources of specific data. There is a common indicator of sorts in the data set that is tripping the wire for like minded teams. Martin Perez is another example of someone who seems to have higher value than what the numbers we look at indicate. (Acknowledgement: Perez was good this year) Or maybe Pagan compares to Zsa Zsa Gabor. Looks Good but yet divorced 7 times.

Agreed with the clean inning. That's why WHIP is my favorite normal stat for all pitchers. OK since you asked Column A; 67 Appearances in 2021 - 47 Zeroes Hung - 70% Just another way to show that Pagan wasn't very good last year.

In 2021 with the Padres: Pagan 67 Appearances - 49 Zeroes Hung - 73% In 2020 with the Padres - 22 - 17 - 77% In 2019 with the Rays - 66 - 52 - 79% So his percentage has gone 79-77-73-64 That's a straight trend downhill.

Throwing in a couple of cents. I'm a hang a zero guy. For a reliever... Hanging a zero is doing your job. If you give up a run, you did not do your job. How many times did you do your job and how many times did you not. ERA is such a misleading stat for relievers because if you hang a 6. It will take you 12 appearances hanging a zero before you stop getting hate mail from the ERA obsessed. So I look at appearances and how many times they did the job we want them to do which is hang a zero. Pre Cleveland 4 blown game nightmare. Emilio appeared in 22 games. He Hung Zeroes in 16 of those games. 73% Good or 27% Bad Use the Good or the Bad depending on how you like your water glasses. Post Cleveland 4 blown game nightmare. Emilio Appeared in 32 Games. He Hung Zeroes in 21 of those games. 65% Good or 35% Bad. So I got him as worse post Cleveland Nightmare in my world. Let's add in the Cleveland 4 blown game nightmare for fun (which included a hung zero against Denver in the middle of the carnage) and his hung zero season totals were: 59 appearances. 38 Zeros hung. 64% For peer comparison Duran: 57 Appearance - 47 Zeros hung - 82% Thielbar: 67 Appearances - 54 Zeros Hung - 81% Moran: 31 Appearances - 25 Zeros Hung - 81% Smith: 34 Appearances - 26 Zeroes Hung - 76% (Note: Smith didn't allow an earned run over his first 17 Appearances. He was 52% after that) Jax: 65 Appearances - 48 Zeroes Hung - 74% Duffey: 40 Appearances - 29 Zeroes Hung - 73% (Duffey tended to give up crooked numbers when he couldn't hang the zero) Pagan: 59 Appearances - 38 Zeros hung - 64% Megill: 39 Appearances - 25 Zeros hung - 64% I present this as just another way to show that Pagan wasn't very good.

So your saying that until the Farm Produces they brought in a Farmer.

I have a feeling that this will be a very active off-season for our newly uniformed team.

Baldelli in an interview after one of the 4 Guardian game Pagan meltdowns. He defended Emilio (Manager should defend publicly IMO). I don't recall the exact words but I remember how I perceived the comments he made. Rocco seemed to say that all indications were that Pagan should be performing better based on the quality of pitches and everything they use for such assessments. He seemed to be at a loss as to why it was going horribly wrong but it left me feeling that they were standing behind him (a manager should stand publicly behind his guys). They stuck with Pagan throughout the struggles last year so I'm not shocked that they are still sticking with him as we roll into 2023. I think it's important to note. This isn't just a manager and a single opinion from that manager. The Twins organization employs a lot of people from the POBO, to the GM to the Manager to the pitching coach(coaches) to the scouts, not to mention a whole bunch of analysts who are paid money to analyze. I'm glad they have a full staff of people doing what they do for better information in a competitive business. The information should be helpful most of the time. However... obviously not all of the time as Pagan demonstrates to them and all of us. If the information was correct all of the time, Pagan would have been good. 14M would have been a bargain for Sano, Kepler would make people happy, Nick Anderson would have been on our disabled list last year. The actual performance on the field HAS TO MEAN MORE than whatever information they are getting. The players that they stick with while they are struggling and are what takes a team down. Sticking with Pagan struggling to the tune of him blowing 4 games against Cleveland by himself ended up being a major factor in our sitting out the playoffs. I'm tired of playing the guy they THINK will be better. I would rather that they play the guy who is actually playing better. Pagan is back... They better be right and if they are not... They need to be quicker to the waste basket.

Tingler: Welcome to Minnesota Kyle, let's get you introduced to your teammates. This is Sonny, Sonny I'd like you to meet Kyle Farmer. and This is Tyler Mahle... Tyler and Sonny are pitchers with our squad. Tyler... This is Kyle Farmer... gonna play some SS for us this year.

Gotta be a value move... He will be paid X amount while his value has been determined to be less than X. Like Rosario but in this case they were able to find a trade partner. I don't see it as key to future moves but that projected 9.2 million could be helpful to fill one of those gaping holes. All in All... I never saw Urshela as a problem. Liked him... helped us win games in my opinion... no problem with him being on the roster. This is what all those analysts do. I'll wait until the off season to complete before judgement.

I will reserve judgement until the end of the off-season. More moves to come... I assume.

I'm not afraid of young players. I encourage the utilization of young players because options are a wonderful thing in case they struggle. Teams need 600K Talent so they can spend elsewhere, they need to develop. Do I anticipate big improvements from Wallner, Larnach and Kirilloff? Aniticpate is the wrong word. I'm hopeful for improvements because it's vital for today and tomorrow. What I am completely against is this. Anticipating big improvements with all eggs in that anticipation basket. And then when it doesn't happen having nowhere to turn. We can roster 5 outfielders and find playing time for those who will earn it but right now... Nick Gordon is our 2nd best OF... that leaves us with a lot of anticipating.

Current Roster OF. This is what they did last year. 2022 OPS Byron Buxton - .833 Nick Gordon - .743 Kyle Garlick - .717 Trevor Larnach - .712 Matt Wallner - .709 Max Kepler - .666 Alex Kirilloff - .651 Gilberto Celestino - .615 Mark Contreras - .441 Y'all comfortable with our OF offense.

Since DRS is being thrown around. Stats from fangraphs are posted below. Take note of the amazing defensive year he had in 2019. Here's a question. What if Renfroe has a defensive year like he did in 2019. If he did... would he be a good defender then? That's quite the gold glove spike in 2019. I Wonder how that happens. That 2019 sure seems to prop up his defensive career numbers. I also notice that his best zone metric performances (DRS and UZR) were best when he split time between LF and RF? Does this prove that players can be positionally flexible or does this prove that the small sample is made smaller by splitting between positions? That's all I got... let the discussion of Renfroe's defensive ability resume. Season Team Level Pos Inn rSZ rCERA rSB rGDP rARM rGFP rPM DRS ARM DPR RngR ErrR UZR UZR/150 FRM OAA RAA 2020 TBR MLB 1B 9.0 0 0 -1 -1 0 0 2022 MIL MLB 1B 1.0 0 0 0 0 0 Total - - - - - - 1B 10.0 0 0 0 -1 -1 0 0 2018 SDP MLB LF 476.0 0 -1 2 1 -0.8 0.7 -0.3 -0.4 -0.9 -1 -1 2019 SDP MLB LF 478.1 3 1 2 6 -0.5 1.7 0.1 1.3 3.0 2 2 Total - - - - - - LF 954.1 3 0 4 7 -1.3 2.4 -0.2 0.9 1.1 1 1 2019 SDP MLB CF 15.0 0 0 1 1 -0.4 0.7 0.1 0.4 19.8 1 1 2021 BOS MLB CF 47.0 0 0 -1 -1 0.2 -1.2 0.0 -1.0 -38.2 -1 -1 Total - - - - - - CF 62.0 0 0 0 0 -0.2 -0.5 0.1 -0.6 -9.9 0 0 2016 SDP MLB RF 73.2 0 0 -1 -1 0.8 -0.9 -0.5 -0.6 -18.1 -1 -1 2017 SDP MLB RF 1015.0 -1 1 0 0 -1.3 -1.7 -2.5 -5.6 -7.9 -1 -1 2018 SDP MLB RF 379.0 1 0 2 3 0.4 0.6 -1.4 -0.4 -1.4 -1 0 2019 SDP MLB RF 504.2 3 0 9 12 4.3 3.6 0.5 8.4 21.7 3 3 2020 TBR MLB RF 285.0 1 0 -2 -1 1.1 -2.3 -0.4 -1.6 -5.8 -1 -1 2021 BOS MLB RF 1166.0 3 0 -3 0 1.7 -0.2 -3.0 -1.6 -2.1 -3 -2 2022 MIL MLB RF 1043.2 0 1 1 0 2 -0.4 0.8 -0.4 0.0 -0.1 -2 -1 Total - - - - - - RF 4467.0 0 8 2 5 15 6.6 -0.1 -7.8 -1.3 -0.5 -5 -4 2016 SDP MLB OF 73.2 0 0 -1 -1 0.8 -0.9 -0.5 -0.6 -18.1 -1 -1 2017 SDP MLB OF 1015.0 -1 1 0 0 -1.3 -1.7 -2.5 -5.6 -7.9 -1 -1 2018 SDP MLB OF 855.0 1 -1 4 4 -0.4 1.3 -1.7 -0.8 -1.1 -1 -1 2019 SDP MLB OF 998.0 6 1 12 19 3.4 6.0 0.7 10.1 13.1 6 6 2020 TBR MLB OF 285.0 1 0 -2 -1 1.1 -2.3 -0.4 -1.6 -5.8 -1 -1 2021 BOS MLB OF 1213.0 3 0 -4 -1 1.9 -1.4 -3.0 -2.5 -3.1 -3 -3 2022 MIL MLB OF 1043.2 0 1 1 0 2 -0.4 0.8 -0.4 0.0 -0.1 -2 -1 Total - - - - - - OF 5483.1 0 11 2 9 22 5.0 1.8 -7.8 -1.0 -0.3 -3 -3

I know I'm being difficult here and for that I apologize. I am at heart a nice guy and if it helps I think you are a very solid poster. But... I can't help myself. Joe Ryan had a 3.55 ERA last year, he has a career ERA of 3.63. You got him as a 4. Pablo Lopez had a 3.75 ERA last year, he has a career ERA of 3.94. You got him as a 2. Brandon Woodruff had a 3.05 ERA last year, he has a career ERA of 3.18. You got him as a 2. Where do Woodruff and Ryan file complaints? ?

Maybe I'll be surprised but I can't see Kepler bringing back anything in a trade. Lets be honest... I assume the reason there are so many comments from TD faithful about the possibility of trading Kepler is because he hasn't been good. If he had been good, the TD Faithful wouldn't be thinking about trading Kepler. If he hasn't been good... Why would a team give up any value for him? The only sensible course of action with Kepler is to hope and pray that the shift rule changes are a tremendous help to him. Give him one of the last roster spots and let him earn playing time back by showing that he can be productive without the shift. He is going to cost us 8 million this year regardless, let's see if he can build that value back... but whatever you do... do not walk into 2023 with Kepler listed as a starter and think it's covered. Gallo might spring back into something of value. He might not. He can hit the ball long way and defend his position but we need a corner outfielder that isn't Kepler or Gallo... We need a corner bat that is way better then both of them. We need a corner bat that is a better hitter than Polanco is. Better than Miranda.