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There is an awful lot of noise being written about how the Twins should blow up their team for prospects, fire the entire staff or administration for some new direction, or call up everybody with a pulse to see how they perform in the "big show". I don't believe you will see any of that happen. I actually believe the Twins won't make any major moves at all. Here's why: The Twins looked at 2011 and basically chalked it up to a mulligan. With all of the injuries, and poor decision making, they thought the ship could be stabilized basically by letting everybody come back. So, they more or less stood pat and waited to see what happened. Let's look at the three main components: position players, the bullpen, and the starting rotation. Position Players - During the off-season the Twins lost primarily 2 players: Michael Cuddyer and Jason Kubel. They went out and replaced them with Willingham and Doumit. They brought in a cheap Carroll to provide some stability to the infield, otherwise they just sat back and let everybody get healthy. This has essentially worked. Span and Mauer are back to their old form. Morneau's average is down, but is still showing power and playing almost every day. The Revere is showing improvement. Third base has also shown improvement, though we were expecting Valencia, not Plouffe. It is hard to argue against the philosophy here. Other than replacing what they lost, they let everything work itself out and it has. The offense has improved. Bullpen - Again, they basically stood pat. To replace Nathan and Mijares, the essentially held open tryouts in spring training. Gray and Burton have both pitched well. Otherwise the bullpen looks surprisingly similar to last years team. Considering the accolades the bullpen has received all year, it's hard to argue that the philosophy didn't work here either. Starting Pitching - Here things have fallen apart at essentially every level. Right off the bat you lose Baker for the season and Waldrop for the first half due to injuries. Blackburn failed to show improvement and has probably pitched himself off the team. Pavano has regressed, not held form. Liriano has been fairly poor overall, though has recently shown improvement. Factor in the Marquis disaster,and you have accounted for the entirety of the starting pitching staff. Not one of these decisions went the Twins way. Predictably, as a result, the Twins starters are making a run at having the worst starters ERA in baseball history. Standing pat did not work here. The standing past theory worked in two of the three areas. If it had worked with the starters, where would the Twins be now? Hypothetically, say Baker didn't get hurt; Liriano, Blackburn, Pavano, Marquis give you something resembling league average pitching, with Waldrop waiting in the wings, how many more wins would the Twins have? 5? 8? As they are currently 11 games back, an 8 game gain in the current standings puts them right in the thick of the weak AL Central. Here is why they won't make any drastic roster changes in the near future: 1) All 9 starters (including DH) are under contract for 2013. Their are currently no offensive holes to fill. 2) The bullpen is also under team control for next year as well. Capps has the team option, they hold the cards with him. 3) Doing nothing else, the starting pitching will improve with time. Gibson and Waldrop will be pitching at full strength by next spring. Diamond will fill one of the starter roles. The only realistic move the team will make is to move Liriano before the deadline. They have no intention of resigning him, and his dog and pony show is getting old. They may move Capps or Pavano, but I would not call that drastic, as neither of them are in the team's future anyways. Willingham, Span, Morneau... all of them are staying put. They will be in the opening day lineup next year. Shocked? Disappointed? Don't be. Ryan's methodical nature has worked for this team in the past, and will work again. They are usually fairly inactive at the deadline (minor moves, nothing ever major), and maintain trust in what they have (like it or not). As they won't be trading any offensive players or their prospects (the Capps/Ramos deal reminded them why not to move top prospects) for starting pitching. They will go out and sign a starter or two in the $3-5 mil range, short term, because that is what they do. Also because this has given them some success in the past. Since Mid-May this team has played close to .500 ball. If they are .500 team next year, they may be in the hunt. 2014 puts us in the Sano, Rosario range. Being this close, they will not make any moves that could set them back. In 2007 the Twins traded Luis Castillo at the deadline. At the time the Twins were 54-51, 6 games out. There was considerable clubhouse and PR backlash with that move at that time, with everybody thinking the team had given up on the season. The team never recovered. The Twins finished 79-83, 17 games back, going 25-32 after the trade. They will not move a player like that now, especially if the team is less than 8 games back at the deadline. All of this being said, could the Twins get overwhelmed in a trade for a Span or Willingham? It's possible, just not very likely. Sorry to disappoint everybody, but Terry Ryan's methodical nature will be on full display over the next 12-18 months. I suggest you just sit back and enjoy the ride.

There is an awful lot of noise being written about how the Twins should blow up their team for prospects, fire the entire staff or administration for some new direction, or call up everybody with a pulse to see how they perform in the "big show". I don't believe you will see any of that happen. I actually believe the Twins won't make any major moves at all. Here's why: The Twins looked at 2011 and basically chalked it up to a mulligan. With all of the injuries, and poor decision making, they thought the ship could be stabilized basically by letting everybody come back. So, they more or less stood pat and waited to see what happened. Let's look at the three main components: position players, the bullpen, and the starting rotation. Position Players - During the off-season the Twins lost primarily 2 players: Michael Cuddyer and Jason Kubel. They went out and replaced them with Willingham and Doumit. They brought in a cheap Carroll to provide some stability to the infield, otherwise they just sat back and let everybody get healthy. This has essentially worked. Span and Mauer are back to their old form. Morneau's average is down, but is still showing power and playing almost every day. The Revere is showing improvement. Third base has also shown improvement, though we were expecting Valencia, not Plouffe. It is hard to argue against the philosophy here. Other than replacing what they lost, they let everything work itself out and it has. The offense has improved. Bullpen - Again, they basically stood pat. To replace Nathan and Mijares, the essentially held open tryouts in spring training. Gray and Burton have both pitched well. Otherwise the bullpen looks surprisingly similar to last years team. Considering the accolades the bullpen has received all year, it's hard to argue that the philosophy didn't work here either. Starting Pitching - Here things have fallen apart at essentially every level. Right off the bat you lose Baker for the season and Waldrop for the first half due to injuries. Blackburn failed to show improvement and has probably pitched himself off the team. Pavano has regressed, not held form. Liriano has been fairly poor overall, though has recently shown improvement. Factor in the Marquis disaster,and you have accounted for the entirety of the starting pitching staff. Not one of these decisions went the Twins way. Predictably, as a result, the Twins starters are making a run at having the worst starters ERA in baseball history. Standing pat did not work here. The standing past theory worked in two of the three areas. If it had worked with the starters, where would the Twins be now? Hypothetically, say Baker didn't get hurt; Liriano, Blackburn, Pavano, Marquis give you something resembling league average pitching, with Waldrop waiting in the wings, how many more wins would the Twins have? 5? 8? As they are currently 11 games back, an 8 game gain in the current standings puts them right in the thick of the weak AL Central. Here is why they won't make any drastic roster changes in the near future: 1) All 9 starters (including DH) are under contract for 2013. Their are currently no offensive holes to fill. 2) The bullpen is also under team control for next year as well. Capps has the team option, they hold the cards with him. 3) Doing nothing else, the starting pitching will improve with time. Gibson and Waldrop will be pitching at full strength by next spring. Diamond will fill one of the starter roles. The only realistic move the team will make is to move Liriano before the deadline. They have no intention of resigning him, and his dog and pony show is getting old. They may move Capps or Pavano, but I would not call that drastic, as neither of them are in the team's future anyways. Willingham, Span, Morneau... all of them are staying put. They will be in the opening day lineup next year. Shocked? Disappointed? Don't be. Ryan's methodical nature has worked for this team in the past, and will work again. They are usually fairly inactive at the deadline (minor moves, nothing ever major), and maintain trust in what they have (like it or not). As they won't be trading any offensive players or their prospects (the Capps/Ramos deal reminded them why not to move top prospects) for starting pitching. They will go out and sign a starter or two in the $3-5 mil range, short term, because that is what they do. Also because this has given them some success in the past. Since Mid-May this team has played close to .500 ball. If they are .500 team next year, they may be in the hunt. 2014 puts us in the Sano, Rosario range. Being this close, they will not make any moves that could set them back. In 2007 the Twins traded Luis Castillo at the deadline. At the time the Twins were 54-51, 6 games out. There was considerable clubhouse and PR backlash with that move at that time, with everybody thinking the team had given up on the season. The team never recovered. The Twins finished 79-83, 17 games back, going 25-32 after the trade. They will not move a player like that now, especially if the team is less than 8 games back at the deadline. All of this being said, could the Twins get overwhelmed in a trade for a Span or Willingham? It's possible, just not very likely. Sorry to disappoint everybody, but Terry Ryan's methodical nature will be on full display over the next 12-18 months. I suggest you just sit back and enjoy the ride.

I think the range vs arm factor is not a simple discussion. When the Twins ran Gomez and Span in CF/LF, having Cuddyers cannon in right was probably more of a benefit than having Revere in that same situation. My other question is how you can quantify this? UZR doesn't take into account reputation. Runners were less apt to run on Cuddyer due to his rep with the strong arm. Also, correct me if I'm wrong, but I thought you needed quite a bit of time for defensive metrics to be truely accurate (like 1-2 full seasons). Christening the revere experiment a success or failure at this point would be premature. That being said, I like love our outfield as it is constructed, with one caveat: Span is an above average CF, but he was a Gold Glove LF. I believe the gains would be better if you put Revere in CF and moved Span to RF.

Valencia has value and would probably be better served going to a different organization. If he figures it out, I could see him as a league average 3B Casilla is the texbook definition of a utility infielder, but can't seem to figure that out. He rminds me a lot of Louis Rivas. It's a shame because he has some of the biogger atbats in recent Twins history.

Going into tonights game Ben Revere and Delmon Young had an identical slugging percentage -.383. How's that working out for you Detroit?

Funny, I could have sworn I saw this exact same comment about Nick Blackburn a few years back.

Actually, this quote wasn't aimed at you specifically, rather at everybody who feels they need to qualify their comments with some semblance of name dropping. Because of how this forum works, anybody could drop this type of statement in their comment and nobody would be the wiser. I just don't feel it is an effective route to use to make your argument, rather it can come across as annoying. For the record, I have played multiple sports at high levels (higher than most) competing for championships. I have also been a collegiate coach. I understand the discussion of "clutch". I have "laced em' up" and been in those positions. But I do not agree with much of what is being thrown around in this thread. People are who they are. All things being equal, people tend to perform at the level they are accustomed to. Statistical reports have shown that given enough opportunities, numbers will move to individual averages (up or down). Sure there are people that "want the ball", but that doesn't necessarily make them better at crunch time. I have also seen individuals who perform excellently in high stress situations, but will not publicly announce it (ie demand the ball). That is a personality trait. Just because you are willing to take the risk doesn't mean you should be there. Clutch is a pipe dream. It is a word used to describe somebody who was able to get a positive result more often than not for being in the right place at the right time. Was Scott Brosius clutch? How long did he last? Jack Morris, a decent but not overly exceptional pitcher, has almost parlayed one well pitched World Series game into a nod for the Hall. He wouldn't even be in the discussion if Erickson pitched that game. Let's take it another route. If Jeter was drafted by the Royals, how would he be perceived today? Good, but not godlike. Think Craig Biggio. What if the roles were reversed and Biggio played for the Yankees? Look at the "closer" role. Matt Capps is a league average reliever, who happens to have experience coming in with a 3 run lead in the 9th inning. Last year and this year, the Twins have sent Glen Perkins out in high leverage situation after high leverage situation. He was almost always successful. Who was more clutch? Who gets the accolades and the bigger contract? Truthfully, who would you rather have up in the 9th inning: Craig Counsell or Alex Rodriguez? It's all right place/right time. Another issue that nobody is discussing is political aspect of this. When Kevin Garnett played for the Wolves, he always got the ball at the top of the key for the last shot of a close game. Never mind that it was about the worst offensive move he had in his repertoire. He always missed. The political fallout for not doing this would have been outrageous, even though the team probably would have won more games if they went a different route. The media would destroy the coaching staff. Kobe Bryant is horrible at the end of games, but if he isn't shooting the last shot, heads will roll. Look at the Mauer fallout. The Twins are nursing Mauer along to keep his bat in the lineup. Never mind how spectacular his offensive numbers are. People say he isn't worth the contract because he isn't hitting 50 HRs a year. It's ignorance and stupidity. People are saying that he isn't worth it because he isn't catching every day. You can usually count on one hand the number of catchers that catch more than 125 games in a year. If Mauer ends up with 90-100 games caught this year, people will complain. People aren't talking about how in the years prior to Mauer signing his contract, he was worth about $30 mil per year while getting paid $8-10 mil. Now he makes $23 mil, and is producing what? $10-12 mil? That's strictly numbers. Nobody talks about his impact on television revenue, gate receipts, memorabilia, advertising, being the face of the franchise, etc. (Oh, and we do have a new stadium by the way.) Still don't think he is worth that contract to the state of Minnesota? Ask the Angels about their Pujols contract and his impact on the Latino community out there. If you don't think Mauer is having that type of impact here, you are nuts.

Totally agree. It would also probably be in Baker's interest to resign with the Twins, as this team knows him best and they will give him every opportunity to succeed due to their woeful pitching situation.

I have coached multiple levels of little league and elementry school baseball. Now that you know my vast experience on this subject, my opinion trumps whatever opinion you feel you need to write. All bow down to me!

Not getting too far into this discussion, but didn't the guys over at ESPN dig into this clutch notion during one of the last two postseasons and found that guys pretty much performed to their regular season standard (be it good or bad) during the postseason? I believe they focused on the Yankees, and found that as their opportunities increased (ie more playoff games) players came around to their usual numbers.

The Minnesota bi-polar will never ever allow this argument to die. 30 years from now Mauer will be retired, in the HOF, and people will still be talking about how his contract was terrible. It really doesn't matter how well he plays. Their will always be crackpots out there who can never let it go. BTW - To everybody complaining about how Mauer is paid too much and didn't give a hometown discount, remember this. If you, average joe, were asked to give a hometown discount in your job would you? Would you in Mauer's shoes? Would you turn down millions of dollars if it was available to you? If you said yes, you are not being honest with us or yourself.

Joe is now 5th in the AL in batting and 1st in OBP. He is also 2nd among all catchers in BA, 2B, OBP, and OPS (thanks to the currently godlike Carlos Ruiz). He is 3rd in walks and... wait for it... AB! C'mon haters, bring it on!

WHY WHY WHY is everybody assuming this was their top priority just because it was done now? You do the deals you can, when you can. Doumit was willing, so were the Twins, it was done very quickly. Does anybody truly think that TR doesn't believe starting pitching is a huge priority? Seriously people, open your eyes!

That was my point. The problem is that most of the posters here are not rational. I don't think anybody they signed as a FA this year (outside of Marquis) has underperformed. The Twins took the stance that last year was essentially a mulligan. The replaced or filled their position players as needed and otherwise counted on all of their injuries to heal up. The lineup has essentially done that. They took the same stance with the rotation, but did not have the same luck. The Zumaya, Baker, and Wimmers injuries were killer. Not having Gibson hasn't helped. Factor in Liriano and Blackburn underperforming, along with Marquis thinking he was playing slow pitch softball, the rotation was unable to recover. Everybody who thinks the Twins are going to be super active at the trade deadline are delusional. They are not typically active as sellers, and I do not see that changing this year. They also are not going to go out and spend big money on a FA starter. They already have too much locked up into M&M, they will not destroy any flexability by siging a $15-18m pitcher long term.

The Twins wouldn't make any trade for Grienke unless an extension could be worked out prior to the trade (ie Johan Santana). Making a trade for him mid-season makes sense as it would give the Twins an opportunity to sign him without it becoming a bidding war in free agency. If they could do that for the cost of Parmalee and Span, I would do it in a heartbeat.

I think it's interesting that people automatically dismiss Terry Ryan for not completely following sabermetrics. I believe GMs did quite alright for decades without them. Seems to me there should be room for both rules of thought. Also, it seemed to work pretty well over the last decade. Just sayin... Also, shame on Thrylos for taking sentences out of context and spinning them to make a point. Here let me try this for you Thrylos: This indicates to me that... the... Twins... GM... has the intellect, education and skills, to...have this team compete in the 21st century. Looks pretty good when I pluck and choose, eh?

I thnk you're argument is just as strong for keeping him as opposed to moving him. For a team that needs good players on team friendly contracts, Span fits that bill. He could be one of those guys the Twins view as core for the next big push. I personally don't see them trading him unless some team decides to vastly overpay.

Sure, I mean really: All of these at-bats should be going to Butera. What were the Twins thinking in locking up a flexible backup catcher that can hit for little money. Seriously!!!

I wouldn't let that opinion out on this site, you might not make it through the day...

I love all the back seat pitching coaches...

There are things in this game that are seriously driving me crazy. An example: The Twins are up by three runs in the top of the ninth. Capps (or Perkins or Burton) is warming up in the pen to come in to pitch the bottom of the 9th for the save. The Twins hit a homerun making it a four run game. Capps will sit down and Burnett will start warming up. Why? Because it is no longer a save situation. The only instance in sports where a managers decision is based solely on whether or not a stat will be accumulated (Thank you Tony LaRussa). I could blame Gardy for this, but virtually all managers do this. It is insane. If they changed the save rule to be a 2 run lead or a 1 run lead, I wonder how "closer" management would be changed? Stupidity. While I hate the save with a passion (I am with the argument that you use your best pitcher when they are needed the most, not necessarily the 9th inning), it is not the only thing currently annoying me: -The Twins are pitching. The other team hits a homerun. The Twins hit the next batter and the umpire warns both benches. Why does the ump do this? Now the other team has to sit on this a "even the score" on another day. Stupidity. On top of that, Gardy will insist on coming out, arguing, and getting ejected on the pretext of "protecting" his players. Why? His players know how he feels about this, his ejection serves no purpose. Again, stupidity. -The Twins are up 9-1 in the bottom of the 9th inning. Billy Butler leads off with a single. The Twins do not hold him on. He takes 2nd base without a throw. He does not get credit for a stolen base. Why? He is still taking a risk. If he trips and falls down halfway to second, the Twins would throw down and tag him out. He would get charged with a stolen base attempt and a caught stealing. You can't have it both ways. Stupidity. -The White Sox are up 5-0 in the 8th inning and are pitching a no-hitter. Ben Revere comes up and lays down a bunt attempt. Whether it is successful or not, he will be crucified in the press for breaking an "unwritten rule". The Sox may even disparage the call. Why? Isn't the goal to win the game? To get hits and score runs? Stupidity. Many of the unwritten rules make little sense to me, but this one is really bad. -Virtually all left handers are allowed to balk on pick-off attempts to 1st base (I'm talking to you Mark Buerhle). The 45 degree rule is rarely enforced. When it is, the world comes crashing down around the umpires. Why? Not because of the call, but because they don't call it consistently. Stupidity. Make it easy. Put a 45 degree line from the rubber. Pitcher steps over it when throwing to first? Balk. What's getting under your skin?

There are things in this game that are seriously driving me crazy. An example: The Twins are up by three runs in the top of the ninth. Capps (or Perkins or Burton) is warming up in the pen to come in to pitch the bottom of the 9th for the save. The Twins hit a homerun making it a four run game. Capps will sit down and Burnett will start warming up. Why? Because it is no longer a save situation. The only instance in sports where a managers decision is based solely on whether or not a stat will be accumulated (Thank you Tony LaRussa). I could blame Gardy for this, but virtually all managers do this. It is insane. If they changed the save rule to be a 2 run lead or a 1 run lead, I wonder how "closer" management would be changed? Stupidity. While I hate the save with a passion (I am with the argument that you use your best pitcher when they are needed the most, not necessarily the 9th inning), it is not the only thing currently annoying me: -The Twins are pitching. The other team hits a homerun. The Twins hit the next batter and the umpire warns both benches. Why does the ump do this? Now the other team has to sit on this a "even the score" on another day. Stupidity. On top of that, Gardy will insist on coming out, arguing, and getting ejected on the pretext of "protecting" his players. Why? His players know how he feels about this, his ejection serves no purpose. Again, stupidity. -The Twins are up 9-1 in the bottom of the 9th inning. Billy Butler leads off with a single. The Twins do not hold him on. He takes 2nd base without a throw. He does not get credit for a stolen base. Why? He is still taking a risk. If he trips and falls down halfway to second, the Twins would throw down and tag him out. He would get charged with a stolen base attempt and a caught stealing. You can't have it both ways. Stupidity. -The White Sox are up 5-0 in the 8th inning and are pitching a no-hitter. Ben Revere comes up and lays down a bunt attempt. Whether it is successful or not, he will be crucified in the press for breaking an "unwritten rule". The Sox may even disparage the call. Why? Isn't the goal to win the game? To get hits and score runs? Stupidity. Many of the unwritten rules make little sense to me, but this one is really bad. -Virtually all left handers are allowed to balk on pick-off attempts to 1st base (I'm talking to you Mark Buerhle). The 45 degree rule is rarely enforced. When it is, the world comes crashing down around the umpires. Why? Not because of the call, but because they don't call it consistently. Stupidity. Make it easy. Put a 45 degree line from the rubber. Pitcher steps over it when throwing to first? Balk. What's getting under your skin?

I believe Terry Ryan is capable of negotiating with more than one player at a time. For the Twins, backup catcher seems to be a big issue. Bigger than starting pitching? No, but big all the same. Plus, you deal with what you can when you can. Doumit has expressed an interest in coming back, the Twins have expressed intrest in having him back, now is as good a time as any to talk extension. If only our starting pitching issues could be solved so easily...

Hey Twins Best Friend: If you spend a large portion of your time at TwinsDaily, then you know that a laerge percentage of the commentors are saying the same thing here: Fire Gardy; Mauer is soft, overpaid, bad, etc.; fire Ryan, Antony, etc. The only thing I can say about that is at least people are emotionally invested enough in the team to care to write. Like you though, I feel the constant ripping gets tiresome.