Cody Pirkl

Donovan Solano was a hired gun brought in to do a specific job. A bit over a month into the season, Solano hasn’t been as advertised. Could the Twins' platoon first baseman be in danger of losing his roster spot? Donovan Solano was a late addition to a Twins roster that has struggled against left-handed pitching for years. Being one of the most consistent hitters against lefties in the last few years, the hope was for Donnie Barrels to carry the short side of the platoon. At 36 years old, Sovano’s start to his Twins tenure may already be in danger of ending. Through his first 55 plate appearances, Solano slashed .314/.364/.392, good for 11% above the league average hitter. In 32 plate appearances since, he’s slashing .107/.219/.143. Hitters go through cold streaks, but on the season as a whole, Solano has a .667 OPS. More worrisome, Solano is slashing .240/.240/.360 against left-handed pitching. He’s failing to a tremendous degree at the main job he was brought in to do. Solano was also a plus defender in 2022 for Cincinnati at first base. After saving 5 runs defensively, he’s been worth -1 Defensive Run Saved in 2023 at first base, and another -1 at second. His fielding struggles have cost Twins pitchers at times this season to the extent that we may not see him at second base again, and even playing first has become anxiety-inducing. At his age, it’s possible Solano is simply at the end of the line. The Twins were able to bring him in for $2m in the spring because of this possibility, and because of the small price tag, they shouldn’t be inclined to give him months of a sample size to show that his start is simply a fluke. They’ve sometimes made a habit of sticking with players too long because of their veteran status, and they’ve paid dearly for it. With the small role Solano plays and the small amount of money committed, it’s not worth waiting months to compile enough evidence that Solano just doesn’t have it anymore. The Twins have no shortage of replacement options either. Though they don’t have another right-handed hitting first baseman, they don’t need one. Alex Kirilloff’s arrival has pushed Joey Gallo to the corner outfield, once again creating a surplus of left-handed hitting corner options between him, Max Kepler, and Nick Gordon . The Twins could stick to Gallo and Kirilloff as the everyday first basemen and call up Kyle Garlick to play the short-side platoon role. Unlike Solano, Garlick’s performance against southpaws can be considered all but guaranteed as long as he can stay healthy. They could also use Solano’s 40-man spot to add a right-handed player with more versatility such as 27-year-old Michael Helman who’s been playing in St. Paul for a couple of weeks after returning from injury. Helman has played every outfield and infield position aside from first base so far in his brief time in Triple-A this season. Last year, between Wichita and St. Paul, he hit 20 homers and stole 40 bases, and sports a .273/.400/.606 line with 3 homers and 2 steals in his 9 games so far this year. Helman likely wouldn’t be a regular at some of the more demanding positions such as shortstop or center, but his ability to play there in a pinch as well as his competence all across the rest of the diamond would certainly be a plus. His clear ability to steal bases would also add an element to the Twins lineup that they have very little of. It’s unfortunate, but the Twins shouldn’t need to see much more from Solano to make a move. The offense is struggling mightily and is one of the worst in baseball against left-handed pitching, a job Solano was brought in to do. They have too many alternative options to let this go on for very long, as plan B or C is almost certain to be better than what they’ve gotten so far. Donovan Solano is running out of opportunity. It may even be too late. Do you agree? View full article

It's bad

In a vacuum it's a good fit depending on whether they plan to have Buxton ever move back to the outfield because like you said, probably don't want Eloy in the field. The wild card of that one is that since he isn't a rental it may take more than just low level prospects and those types of trades always get tricky in division. I'm sure the Twins don't want to aid the White Sox too much in their rebuild.

I've been a longstanding Christian Walker fan with the DBacks. He really impacts the ball and plays gold glove caliber 1B which can push Gallo to the outfield. Of course this would require a few things to happen, including Arizona to not be contenders and Kirilloff not working out or Buxton moving back to the OF.

Can guarantee the Twins don't feel the same way and it's not an either or. There are at least two other options in Triple-A they could try if Larnach continues to struggle.

The point those two are at in their careers are very different though and Larnach's lack of power spans his entire career to this point and there are options to replace him. I just fear the Twins don't give him much more leash.

I'm definitely in agreement on Larnach>Wallner. I think the likeliest scenario is that when Kirilloff's 10 days are up and Larnach is still doing what he's been doing, the decision simply becomes too easy. I'd hope if he gets sent down he could start driving the ball again, seems like he's just fighting everything off to keep his head above water right now. I think trading for a bat is definitely in the cards closer to the deadline. Too many inconsistent hitters across the lineup and bats usually don't cost too much.

I've been a Larnach believer the entire season, and while I think he is nearing a point where they have to send him down, I don't look at that as giving up on him. They have other options to try, and if he continues with what he's been doing I think it's a pretty straightforward assumption that Larnach gets optioned for Kirilloff when his 10 days are up. Unlike a lot of people, I have no issue with Larnach's approach, including the strikeouts that come with it. There just has to be a payoff. He can't pace out as a 12-15 HR hitter at the MLB level if he wants to be a regular, which is what he's done so far in his career. He's had the two injuries, yes, but he's healthy now and so far in 2023 he has yet to show any kind of meaningful power. The bottom line is guys with 30+% K rates and SLG%s in the .300s usually don't stick around very long. The walks are likely to dry up as pitchers realize they can just throw strikes and he won't punish them for it. If a trip to Triple-A could potentially get him driving the ball again, I don't think it'd be the worst thing.

I don't mean to come across as writing him off, I was a huge believer coming into the year and still think his plate approach makes him a potentially solid regular left fielder. I do think he needs to find a viable identity as a hitter and I'm not sure the Twins will let him do so in the major. If he wants to work counts and try to force the pitcher to make mistakes, it's going to result in some strikeouts, which is fine. There needs to be a payoff when those mistakes are made though and he's struggled to do that through his first 600 plate appearances in the majors. As I mentioned in the article, he has a power hitter's plate approach without the power so far in his career. Pairing his plate approach with a slugging % in the .300s leaves him contributing little on offense aside from walks. He isn't a threat on the bases so that's just not very helpful. If he keeps failing to drive the ball the league also likely reaches a point where they stop walking him because they'll just decide he's not capable of making them pay for throwing strikes. The Twins have enough options that it's very possible that they decide to give someone else a shot very soon.

The assumed power is off the charts, he hasn't really shown it at the big league level aside from an impressive homer here or there. At this point his expected numbers are actually better against changeups than fastballs. He's gotten quite a few fastballs the last few weeks and just fouls them off. Two things I wonder about with him is whether he's 1. Pulling back on the power to keep the K% around 30 rather than disastrous levels, and 2. Whether he's actually just going up looking to fight off everything in the zone to draw a walk. He never looks ready for any pitch of any type lately. He's gotten quite a few mistakes lately and often can't do much aside from foul them off.

Why is it a bad time for an article discussing how Larnach could be running out of time the night after he strikes out four times? He could get optioned for Matt Wallner before the Cleveland series and I wouldn't be shocked.

I agree. It's not a death sentence, but it's really odd to see velocity fall off so hard by the age of 22. Usually we see players build velocity up as they age into their 20s which I'm sure the Twins have tried clearly with little success. One concern regarding the velocity though is that I do believe there's a hard drop off at a certain point, and if he's going to drop all the way down to 88-89 by the 5th inning he'd be lucky to make it out of that inning let alone ever go further.

Varland has been the 2x Minor League Pitcher of the Year for the Twins, his stuff numbers look significantly better, and he's had a traditional path through the minors as a starter whereas Headrick has only made 9 starts above A ball. That doesn't mean Varland will necessarily be better, but he's also been solid across 4 starts in the majors. My guess is the Twins give Varland the first chance.

Do you want Pagán or Morán pitching let's say in the 6th inning of a 2 run ball game? The Twins just went to Lopez and Duran in a 4 run game the other night. Maybe in that scenario against the Yankees they'd have done it the same regardless, but they'll probably continue doing things like that because they probably don't and shouldn't trust either of their traditional middle relievers to get 3 outs before they give up 4 runs.

A lot of discussions have been had this season about the long relief role in the Twins bullpen, but middle relief is becoming more of a topic as those they have in place continue to struggle. Who could step in and fill such a role? Image courtesy of Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports The Twins have a strong top of the bullpen in Jhoan Duran, Jorge Lopez, Griffin Jax, and Caleb Thielbar. They also have a surplus of long relievers they’ve cycled through to begin the season. The bullpen problems have mostly fallen into the low-leverage, middle-relief tier, which so far has been occupied by the ineffective duo of Emilio Pagán and Jovani Morán. It may be time for the Twins to get creative. The Twins have already begun searching for an internal addition for what it’s worth. Brock Stewart was called up Tuesday after 8+ innings and 17 strikeouts in Triple-A to begin the season. The 31-year-old former top prospect may not be the most exciting option based on his age and career thus far, but the recent performance gives hope that Stewart has made some changes and can carry them over to the big league level. However, the Twins should pivot to other options if it doesn't pan out. The depth of the aforementioned “long reliever” group in Triple-A is nice in theory, but one could argue that such depth for this role is a bit overkill. Cole Sands, Simeon Woods Richardson , and Brent Headrick are all on the 40-man roster and have been used at the big-league level thus far. Jose De Leon and Randy Dobnak remain as options who could be added if needed. Their performances aren’t as inspiring, but considering they’d be pitching almost exclusively in blowouts, it’s easy to argue it doesn’t much matter. Woods Richardson remains a legitimate starting pitching prospect, with Headrick and Sands less so. Rather than having five candidates for a role that may come in handy once per week, the Twins should be looking to transition one of these options into a traditional reliever. Focusing more on Headrick and Sands assuming Woods Richardson will continue taking the mound every fifth day, there’s reason to believe either one could come up and settle into a traditional middle innings role. The benefits of changing a bulk innings pitcher into a traditional reliever have been covered plenty at this point. The velo ticks up, and they can throw their best pitches more often. Brent Headrick is averaging around 92 mph on the fastball in his debut season, and he grades out tremendously in command with a usable changeup to equalize his left-handedness against right-handed hitters. He’s a prime candidate to be one of the many fringe starting pitching prospects who move to the bullpen and flourish as we’ve seen in recent years. Sands has been an option for a similar move for a year-plus now because of his wicked breaking ball. He hasn’t been a full-time starter since 2021, and it may be time to crack the door open to a consistent big-league job and see if he can kick it in. They could also pivot on Josh Winder, who’s on the rehab trail in St. Paul, though he’s also filled a multi-inning role in four of his five outings thus far. His inability to hold up to a starters' workload could be solved by putting him into a traditional reliever role given his issues with the fastball and impressive slider. The Twins have no shortage of options, and it’s becoming untenable to maintain such long relief depth to cycle guys in and out of a role at the MLB level that’s so unplanned and rarely utilized. Especially when it’s become clear that there are little to no situations in which the Twins have a lead where Emilio Pagán and Jovani Morán can be trusted to get even three outs. Hopefully, Brock Stewart’s minor league stuff translates, but the Twins should be working on a backup option now in case it doesn’t. Worst case scenario, Stewart grabs the job and runs with it, and another option establishes themselves in Triple-A in case they’re needed. They have more than enough long relief depth with not many answers in middle relief. Is it time to start actively seeking out more internal relief options? View full article

Jovani Morán has had a rough start to the season that came to a head Tuesday night in Boston when he entered in the 10th inning and turned a two-run lead into a loss. Should we expect more from him moving forward? Image courtesy of Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports Jovani Moran has been far from the pitcher he showed he could be in 2022. Granted, he mostly saw low leverage, but his 2.21 ERA across 40+ innings was enough for the Twins to pencil him into a bullpen role in 2023. Despite his rough start, there are reasons to continue to hope for more from the left-handed reliever. Morán’s biggest flaw has been control throughout his entire career. He’s rarely been able to put up walk rates under 10% but has ascended to the MLB level because of the rest of his skills. Morán is a unicorn, as his out pitch is a wicked changeup that has helped stave off traditional platoon splits against right-handed hitters. He’s managed eye-popping strikeout rates at every level and has avoided the longball to an impressive degree. Morán’s walk rate has increased from 11% in 2022 to 14% in 2023. It’s a fine line to walk, but a familiar one for Morán thus far in his career. Unlike past seasons, the rest of his skills haven’t been up to snuff to bail him out. The strikeout rate has been acceptable at 25.6%, but it's a far cry from the near 33% mark from 2022. More importantly, Morán has already allowed two homers in seven innings pitched so far. He’s never allowed even one home run per nine innings pitched in his career across a full season. Can we hope for a bounce back? It’s worth noting that Morán’s ugly outing on Tuesday could have gone a lot differently had his strikeout to begin the inning not resulted in the hitter reaching first base. He did walk a batter, but allowed three hits, none of which surpassed an 80.6 mph exit velocity. It was the weirdest game the Twins have played all season, and Morán was on the tough end of plenty of said weirdness in the 10th. Most of his ERA indicators aren’t great, but they all show some bad luck regarding his 7.27 ERA, and his xERA weighing the quality of contact he’s allowed is only 3.45. The walks aren’t going away, but some of the poorly hit balls should start finding gloves. It's also fair to wonder whether Morán has a stretch of avoiding the long ball in him after showing such a strong aversion throughout the minors and into his big league career. Morán may not be perfect, but he should be better. In regards to Morán’s role, I think we all know that he’ll likely never be the first to get the call in situations like Tuesday. The Twins were out of their traditional high-leverage relievers and didn’t want to turn to rookie Brent Headrick or open the door for another Emilio Pagán disaster. It was an unfortunate situation with a poor result, but Morán was scheduled for a return to low leverage regardless of the outcome. Jovani Morán should be better moving forward. The walks may keep him from moving too far up the bullpen hierarchy, but the strikeouts and aversion to homers should make him a perfectly usable MLB reliever. The Twins also don’t exactly have another reliever beating down the door in Triple-A. As frustrating as the loss was, he’s still a 25-year-old with team control through 2029. It’s very possible we look back on Tuesday’s nightmare outing as having little bearing on the pitcher he is. It’s not time to give up on Jovani Morán. View full article

The Twins have a group of players on their way back from injury and a handful of healthy players struggling. If we’re lucky, the Twins may have a roster crunch on the horizon. Which current players could be affected? Image courtesy of Denny Medley, USA TODAY Sports The Twins are cautiously optimistic that a few injured players continue to grow closer to returning to action. Beginning with Joey Gallo, Jorge Polanco and Alex Kirilloff have to return in the next couple of weeks according to the 20-day limit on minor-league rehab assignments for hitters. Royce Lewis should also be arriving in the first half of the season. The Twins' offense is in need of a shakeup in the early going. Who could lose out as some of these bats return? Donovan Solano The Twins likely didn’t have “everyday first baseman” in mind when they inked Solano to a modest $2m deal late this spring. He’s done a fine job on both sides of the ball, and his play doesn’t warrant a demotion. Still, Solano is a fantastic player to have as a matchups play. His OPS over .800 to begin the season has been much appreciated, but his best bet to maintain his early production is for the Twins to match him up against left-handed pitching as much as possible. With how many left-handed bats are returning, the Twins' offense would likely be better off reverting Solano to a platoon role despite his hot start. Nick Gordon Gordon is off to a confusing start. Whiffs have been a big part of his career, but he’s only struck out once so far. It would be a good sign, but he also only has four hits in 40 at-bats, and his ability to impact the ball as we saw last season, especially against right-handed pitching, has yet to show up in 2023. Gordon’s utility remains his best skill and should continue to get him playing time as a left-handed platoon around the diamond. We’ve already seen the Twins pull back on his playing time at second when Edouard Julien got the call. This will continue with Polanco’s return, as he’ll soak up all of the playing time at second against right-handed pitching. 2022 looked like something of a breakout for Gordon. He could lose playing time or even his roster spot if things continue to go poorly. He’ll have to start hitting very soon if an encore is in order for 2023. Max Kepler There’s not much of an indicator that the Twins are willing to treat Kepler in a way that reflects his performance. Despite being a below-league-average hitter since the juiced ball 2019 season, the Twins reportedly declined offers to trade Kepler this offseason and opened the year leading him off yet again. He has not rewarded their faith in him. Joey Gallo’s brief power flash to begin 2023 should automatically afford him playing time over Kepler, whose offense hasn’t matched the defense in years. Taking things a step further, not only could Kirilloff taking over first base push Gallo to right field, but he’s been starting in the outfield himself on his rehab assignment. That’s bad news for any corner outfielder that’s struggling if Kirilloff can make it through his assignment healthy. Kepler has a team option for $10.5m for 2024 remaining on his contract, and it’s difficult to imagine him raising his game to the level of justifying that number. If the slow start continues and declining that option becomes a certainty, there’s no reason for Kepler to serve as more than a bench player/defensive replacement. Right-field defense is too replaceable, especially in Target Field, and it’s time to stop accepting below-average offense at an offensive premium position after all of these years. It seems like whenever debates begin regarding a roster crunch, these things work themselves out. With 3+ possible regulars on the horizon, it’s worth exploring who could lose out. Are there any other Twins in line for reduced playing time or even a lost roster spot? Let us know below! View full article