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SomeGuy

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Everything posted by SomeGuy

  1. SomeGuy
    Based on 2021 batted balls Polanco's expected batting average is .271 and expected slugging is .462 compare that to 2019 polanco's expected batting average was .267 and expected slug was .457 BABIP comparison 2019- .328 2021 - .247
  2. SomeGuy
    It has only been 30 games....I wouldn't write them off yet. I'm in the bad luck camp especially on offense. Donaldson BA .262 XBA .337 Slug .426 xSlug .602 Polanco BA .206 XBA .271 Slug .304 xSlug .465 Kepler BA .200 XBA .247 slug .343 xSlug .398 Arraez BA .291 XBA .324 Slug .372 xSlug .494 Garver BA .205 XBA .220 Slug .493 xSlug .540 Pretty low BABIPs Donaldson .275 (career .298) Cave .262 (career .344) Polanco .247 (career .310) Kepler .245 (career .252) Garver .243 (career .299) Kirilloff .192 Sano .148 (career .334)
  3. SomeGuy
    2020 team OPS .713 (22nd) wRC+ 92 (22nd) OBP .312 (23rd) 2019 OPS .832 (2nd) wRC+ 116 (3rd) OBP .338 (6th)
  4. SomeGuy
    Torii Hunter and Jim Thome should take over. Both are smart and entertaining.
  5. SomeGuy
    I disagree with whole "the sport is fading away" take. The sport generated a record $10.7 billion in 2019, MLB broke 10 billion for the first time in 2017, and took 10.3 in 2018. I also disagree with the 1 game in June or July doesn't matter. When teams are missing the playoffs by a game or 2 it turns out those games in June and July did matter. The playoff picture has been mostly competitive right up to the end since they added a 2nd wildcard with numerous teams getting eliminated in the last week. And at the end of the season the last 10 teams standing earned their way there. 1 hot streak doesn't mean a whole lot with a full season. How would you build a team around a 60 game season? If the timeframe remains April/May to September then you are playing a couple games per week. There would be no need for 4th or 5th starters. There would be no need for 12-13 relievers. There would be no need for 25 people on a team. This would swing the team aspect of baseball into more of an individual sport where the absolute elite pitchers win championships. If the season is condensed like 2020 with the normal weekly schedule, a common arm injury like a forearm strain suddenly takes a guy out for most of the season if not all of the season like it just did with Verlander. What would have been about 1/3 of the season without one of the best players is suddenly most of the season.
  6. SomeGuy
    And then there is Juan Soto with 6 negative tests since he was tested positive but still can't play because no 2 of those tests were back to back.
  7. SomeGuy
    The CDC chief is also predicting many schools will be opening in August, within 1 month of the baseball season starting. U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Director Robert Redfield told lawmakers: It is my expectation that many jurisdictions will be opening schools. We are going to try to give guidance to help them do it safely. I think we’re going to see progressive jurisdictions move to open schools in the fall. Asked whether kids and young adults would be able to return to class in August, Dr. Redfield told the House panel Tuesday: I anticipate that the states will begin to open up higher education and K-12. It is going to be based on jurisdiction to jurisdiction decisions. CDC will be issuing additional guidance on this topic in the days ahead as we continue to try to work and give guide … [on] how to open them up safely.
  8. SomeGuy
    CDC on 6/25/20 "For every 1 case reported. it is likely 10 cases went unreported." We are finally catching some of those other 10 in the increased testing. According to the CDC it is likely that the 2.3M total US cases is more like 23M Americans. Deaths are still trending downward while we get a better picture of how many people are actually getting and surviving this thing. In a call with reporters on Thursday, CDC Director Dr. Robert Redfield said, “In the past, we didn’t really aggressively pursue diagnostics in young asymptomatic individuals.” https://www.foxnews.com/health/for-every-coronavirus-case-reported-10-went-unannounced-cdc-estimates
  9. SomeGuy
    But seriously the quality hitters would be spread out more too. 2 more teams would be competing for free agents and trade targets etc. Plus that is more opportunities for developing and training pitchers.
  10. SomeGuy
    GET RID OF THE DH AND MAKE THE PITCHERS HIT!
  11. SomeGuy
    You cant compare testing today to testing of the past when a large majority of the new cases would not have been allowed a test. One of the 5 Phillies showed symptoms that's 80% that they would not bother testing earlier during quarantine. Of course it will look like a "spike" in new cases when you change the parameters. Deaths continue to plunge nation wide as more people interact with society. This is great news, the virus is not nearly as deadly as we thought. We are finding a big chunk of the cases don't even notice they contracted the virus. Had the testing been the same throughout the whole process we would be seeing a downward trend in new cases.
  12. SomeGuy
    Which is again attributed to an increase in testing. If the cases were increasing due to an outbreak then the deaths would follow at the same rate. People like Charlie Blackmon would not have been a positive test a month ago because he does not show symptoms. We are casting a wider net and counting healthy people as "positives" when they have never shown symptoms Baseball does not need to be a traveling sport. If you want seclusion pick a state and play the games there. US deaths per day still shows a downward trend. What changed over the last month that deaths slowed way down? Protests, rallies, open states, deaths are still trending way down. The only change is an increase in testing as healthy people head back to their daily lives. https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_coronavirus_deaths_per_day
  13. SomeGuy
    There is a downward trend in new cases, hospitalizations and deaths. The curve has flattened. The only graph in the link below that is trending upward is tests per day. Baseball players are not the only people seeing regular testing. Now that I am back at the office, I get tested weekly. I am sure thousands of other people are now getting tested as they return to work that never would have without showing symptoms. Even with the tests catching more of the symptom less people the trend still points down. Daily deaths n MN were in the single digits the last 4 consecutive days, something that hasn't been done since the beginning. https://www.minnpost.com/health/2020/03/tracking-the-minnesota-covid-19-numbers/
  14. SomeGuy
    Will a vaccine be necessary at 4 years or even 2 years? I don't think we are looking at this still being a big issue by then. We are never going to stop the spread of the virus no matter how isolated the government forces us to be. By this time next year I think a huge portion of the nation will have been exposed to it already. I think the number of cases is massively underestimated. With the Asymptomatic nature of the virus I believe thousands of Americans (probably well over 100k) have no idea they already had it. I think if you tested every American as often as these athletes are and will be tested you will see the same results. Testing is at an all time high so it probably isn't a "second outbreak" as much as it is catching a larger percentage of cases. We seem to have forgotten the original goal of the lockdowns which was to slow the spread so hospitals had the open beds and equipment to deal with the incoming patients. Somewhere along the way we developed this false theory that zero new cases can be a reality. 3 Rockies tested positive and only 1 showed any symptoms at all. In one week the Rockies, Phillies, Astros, Yankees, Angels, Giants, Blue Jays, and a few unnamed clubs have had positive test results. As far as I can tell there are 2 confirmed to have shown symptoms and zero hospitalizations. (Personal beliefs from an unqualified individual)
  15. SomeGuy
    A couple links that I found interesting that explore why expansion could be more likely now. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/will-mlb-turn-to-expansion-after-losing-revenues-to-covid-19/ https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/why-the-coronavirus-shutdown-could-lead-to-mlb-expansion-in-the-near-future/
  16. SomeGuy
    I originally hated the idea of removing interleague week when the Astros moved but I am sold on the new format.
  17. SomeGuy
    Are these teams really rivals though? Most of them have shared fans. It feels forced. This also introduces an unbalanced schedule. KC has to play St Louis every year while the Indians get the almost always poor Reds. If you miss the playoffs by 1 game and your interleague "rival" has the best record or if the team ahead of you had a gimmie series against someone like the Marlins, I would feel cheated.
  18. SomeGuy
    High risk players will be able to sit out and still make their prorated salary. No definition of high risk yet but I'm guessing that most non-injury related, pre-existing conditions will be included. If the player is deemed healthy and still doesn't feel comfortable playing then it sounds like they will forfeit their salary.
  19. SomeGuy
    It is 104% of the pro rated salary. They will get paid for slightly more than 60 games. So they are still losing more than half of their yearly salary. The big hangup was the players wanted as long of a season as possible because the prorated salary would go up for each game played. They felt the owners were asking for a shorter season for the exact opposite reason. Since no tickets are being sold, they don't make any money by having more games, they only lose more by paying players more. I wouldn't view 104% as a big win for the players. 80-100 games would have been a win for players.
  20. SomeGuy
    Two expansion teams have been rumored for a few years now but some experts are predicting the virus could increase the probability of that as it would bring economic relief. If two teams join MLB and each league has an even 16 teams then the everyday inter-league play would no longer be necessary. My question is do you prefer the current system where there is always an interleague series going and each division plays another division from the other league or do you prefer the week long event that we used to have before the Astros were realigned to the AL? I liked the event aspect of inter-league week but I feel the current setup is more balanced. Plus the week long event was always kind of gimicky where the same teams played each other every year and we pretended they were rivals. I found myself tuning in to random interleague matchups pretty regularly with the current system. Two more teams would probably result in 4 divison leagues and change scheduling a bit but I would think interleague would still find some role in the schedule.
  21. SomeGuy
    I think I would go to a game right now. Having an open seat on either side of me sounds like a dream.
  22. SomeGuy
    If a season started today, the Rangers and Astros would potentially be able to fill their stadiums to 50% capacity. If Minnesota had that same policy (impossible as it may be), would you attend the game?
  23. SomeGuy
    Max Kepler didn't do anything wrong. You are still allowed to support police officers with things like the thin blue line. This doesn't mean you don't want justice for George. I think you will find police officers themselves are baffled and appalled by what happened. And Kepler claims he doesn't know what that mask means (I still don't think he knows what it means) and was just wearing a freebie. That is fine too, he is a foreign citizen after all. The thin blue line has nothing to do with race.
  24. SomeGuy
    There is no way 2020 will resemble a normal baseball season. Half the games, half the divisions, changing the rules, changing the playoff landscape, no fans, changing how umps/player/coaches interact, how can we call that another baseball season? How can we call the 2020 champ just as important as other season winners like the 2017 Astros? Since there isn't a way to redeem the season, lets make it a once in a lifetime event. I'm thinking a very short season to establish seeding, then we do a full 30 team playoff. Have all the games on a small tropical island or something, get weird with it and make the best out of what is already a lost cause. I won't take the results of whatever they manage to put together this season seriously anyway. Just make it as entertaining as possible. What are your ideas for an alternate baseball season?
  25. SomeGuy
    Which they won't be able to get away from unless they just say see ya next year.
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