When there is one out with a tie score in the bottom of the ninth you send the runner only if it would take a perfect play to get him. If the runner would be out on an average play you hold. Holding the runner makes it second and third with one out. Many, if not most, visiting managers will order an IBB or order the pitcher not to throw strikes in case the batter swings at pitches that are difficult to hit. Then you've got bases loaded, the infield and outfield play in, maybe with five infielders, and your odds are good. It is easy to see in retrospect that it was a major mistake by Diaz to send. It requires a certain skill to be able to read that play correctly and it seems that he may not possess that skill.