bean5302

Which is one reason to wait until the criminal case is settled. If convicted, there's no leg to stand on. I'm not sure if your experience speaks as much to the civil trial system or to our medical and political system.

What a glowing review for a guy who: 1) Is not generating a lot of power (.177 ISO). 2) Is generating almost no well hit fly balls. 3) Is striking out 30.0% of the time in A+ 4) Has been entirely moved off SS. It's not like Winokur is a lost cause, but I don't feel like his changes are exciting right now.

If two Cy Youngs weren't enough to keep Santana on the list for a second year, I don't think 3 changes much. The ding against him is the same. No good playoff results, limited career WAR due to a short career. Santana was the best starter in the American League for 3 years. He was in the conversation for the best in baseball along with several other candidates for those 3 seasons. He had one other great season. Outside of that, he was good to very good. Do I think he should get the nod for Cooperstown? Yeah, I think he deserves it, but I can see why some voters want to see more body of work for a career.

There has never been a more hated player on Twins Daily than Matt Wallner, lol. TBH, his decline in sprint speed shown earlier this year along with his absolute ineptitude at the plate were pretty remarkable. If the Twins trade him, they trade him, but there's literally nothing for him to prove at AAA.

What is the purpose of the "Swarzak?" The 2021 Twins bullpen did not stink. Guys with 20+ IP in relief below, though ERAs were much higher before the deadline. Minaya 2.48 ERA Farrel 3.04 ERA Duffey 3.18 ERA Thielbar 3.23 ERA Rogers 3.35 ERA Coulombe 3.58 ERA Alcala 3.92 ERA Colome 4.15 ERA Anyway, I think what is really being talked about here is a mop up guy needed for a bad pitching rotation. If you have starters who can go 5.0+ or 6.0+ IP, the mop up guy isn't a necessary role.

Erickson didn't hit anybody, but he was convicted of a misdemeanor reckless driving. It would be pretty shocking to see jail time handed out for that. As far as being an accessory, there was certainly no intent to hit the children and Erickson was convicted of the crime which was actually intended (street racing/reckless driving). If authorities could've charged Erickson with any felonies and made them stick, they would have. Convictions in the United States are easy to come by so if prosecutors didn't think they could get one, it wasn't going to be close at trial. Rebecca Grossman was convicted over 2 years ago in February, 2024. The appeal took another 2 years, until March, 2026. It's common to have civil suits wait until after the criminal trial for a lot of reasons. Basically, they decided to street race, two kids died and Grossman's getting 15 to life. She blew .08 (legal limit). She's been in prison for 2 years already. I'm not sure what Justice "American style" means.

Wallner's K rate is like 22% over his past 15 games and the Twins are like dead last in MLB for RF production. He's got a wRC+ of like 169 over that time frame, but he was ice cold to start. Seems like he's controlling the strike zone well. It remains to be seen if MLB pitchers are just going to eat him up inside again, but might as well find out.

Why not just advocate for DFA'ing and releasing him?

Skubal just threw 5 innings and he's expected to be back for Detroit's next series. The $32MM price tag will be the value reducer, but any team who is actually serious about the World Series would want him.

Was at the game and that 9th inning come back certainly made for some excitement! The quick hook for Prielipp for a shaky reliever (Morris) definitely had me wondering what the heck was up. Prielipp is unquestionably the better of the two. Oh well. Nearly silent bats for 8 innings didn't help the cause. I think Lewis looked pretty good today. I feel like he could have made a play on a hit through traffic, but it was clear he was unpolished at 1B. Did fine otherwise.

I don't think anybody felt Martin was ever going to be a "power hitter" but his raw power was typically graded about 50. His max exit velocity is around 107-108mph which is well below average, but his actual ISO is far below that still. Martin's raw power probably puts him into a .080-.140 ISO range, and Marin is firmly at the absolute bottom end of potential power production. Luis Arraez has similar raw power, but he almost never swings hard. He makes his living looping soft liners over the heads of infielders, dropping down in front of outfielders or in the gaps. Those balls frequently lead to doubles which Arraez accumulates 30-35 a year that way. Martin is a ground ball machine. Those grounders exit much faster (watch bat bros for examples) and because the grounders are so much faster, fielders get to them quicker and they slow down faster due to friction with the ground. This means those balls find fewer gaps, and make it to outfielders fast enough to eliminate doubles.

Matt Wallner last 15 games. .317/.414/.650 OPS 1.064 wRC+ 169 11.4% BB, 21.4% K, .333 ISO

Turbo Tubs... sounds like a skateboard move my friend made up when we were like 8yrs old. I guess maybe it's like TikTok trash? Some 22yr old intern thought it was a great idea and sold it. Btw, Get of my lawn!!!!! Also, I just looked Wichita up. Man, that is a pretty little city. Realistic AI render. Looks similar to other photos I've seen.

I think looking for power with Martin was a sound strategy. He's just not going to be a starting caliber player without more power, and the Twins were hoping for upside. If Martin could even have mediocre power, he'd have been our starting corner outfielder the past 3 years instead of a AAA shuttle, backup piece.

What chance? The chance Fedko is as good as Outman is maybe 50/50. The chance Fedko is as good as Martin is less than 5% IMHO.

I don't think the Twins will make any decisions until it's clear they're out of it. Right now, the team is 2.0 GB of the Wild Card. The reason you trade Ryan is because the Twins have no hope of advancing in the playoffs and a single injury could completely wipe any value Ryan has to the team in an instant. Sure, they could technically make it for a Wild Card series (probably not), but advancing? With what? Buxton and Ryan aren't Ohtani and Trout, and even Ohtani and Trout couldn't get the Angels to the playoffs. Rank in terms of WAR by position players: C - 4th 1B - 21st 2B - 19th 3B - 25th SS - 24th LF - 3rd!! wtf Trevor Larnach? Who is this guy? CF - 5th RF - 30th DH - 20th Mean average = 17th. Moving away from expected metrics to reality for pitchers to ERA. The Twins starters rank 18th. The Twins relievers rank 25th. Pitching wins playoffs. If Abel returns and is good. If the Twins can identify a couple high leverage relievers If Lewis returns to form If Culpepper provides the boost at SS the Twins desperately need. If the Twins can identify a solution for RF They could be good enough to advance. But let's be real. They're not beating Atlanta. They're not beating the Dodgers. They're not beating the Yankees.

Berrios was not a rental. He was under team control through 2022.

Marek Houston is a little better than league average now after a big game. He's showing an increased plate discipline required for his modest power output. I think he should move to AA after the All Star Break if he's able to continue to build on his performances. As a defensive specialist at SS, he could be knocking on the door before the end of next year. That's one other reason I think it's time for Culpepper. Need to see him play SS at the MLB level.

I also think it's time for Kaelen Culpepper now. His defensive metrics aren't blowing me away, but they look adequate. He's not nearly as error prone as Twins SS prospects of the past, and his overall RF/9 looks competitive or better than most SS's in the league. He's at 3.90 RF/9 where I typically feel 4.00+ is required to be adequate and 4.25+ is where the good SS's live, but it's a pretty small sample size and pitching in the International League is a joke. Like an Oprah show where everybody gets a HR. I'd option Gray and call up Culpepper.

Here's hoping Lewis isn't expecting to hit 2HR per game at the MLB level and he's able to lay off bad pitches he won't be able to contact or drive. If he's willing to be more patient, I believe he'll be good. as far as where he plays, who knows with this team.

Revisiting the Berrios trade, I think Berrios' production means less than what the Twins got back in return. The Twins were in the drivers seat for the most coveted starter in MLB (other than Scherzer who was part of an enormous package with Trea Turner). Berrios was viewed as the most valuable trade target started in MLB as an absolute workhorse, playoff caliber starter who was more than a rental. BBTV rejected the trade as lopsided in favor of the Twins as I recall. Martin + SWR was like +55 and Berrios was like +40ish. In any case, what COULD the Twins have gotten vs. what DID the Twins get? The Twins were looking for MLB ready or near MLB ready players who could help the team as soon as 2022. Both Martin and SWR were in AA in 2021. Unfortunately, SWR's aversion to coaching and adjustments meant he was delayed until 2024, and even then, he provided modest value by 3.0 fWAR across 2 starter seasons featuring multiple demotions due to performance problems. The BaseballReference dart board of value, which makes no sense to me currently, pegged SWR at a substantially more valuable 4.1 bWAR. Austin Martin has not provided any substantial value IMHO. When it comes to Martin, he was done dirty by a Twins front office which I don't respect. I personally believe players should be put into positions where they can be successful in the field, which means they have the physical skill set to succeed, and they should learn that position inside and out becoming naturals. The Twins front office seems to follow the same belief that a few TD posters have. Sandlot baseball, folks, draw straws to see where you play today, it doesn't matter. The sandlot baseball strategy doesn't resonate with my life experiences suggesting you need a lot of repetition to become good at something, and my feeling seems to align with many quotes from MLB players who've changed positions over the years. I've been very impressed with Martin's arm this year. Now several years removed from a UCL tear that shut him down starting March 2023 which was treated with the dreaded rest and rehab approach, Martin's throws from the outfield suggest at least a 55+ grade arm. I think he could have value at 3B or 2B where looked solid in his last consistent work in 2023. I don't think Martin's bat will play well at the corners. Martin seems to lack fly ball tracking skills or situational awareness as he approaches walls in the outfield. I'm not sure he plays a static position enough to improve his comfort. For the record, players have stated how much harder it is to over RF/LF than CF in terms of instincts as ball flight paths are far more difficult to predict as they slice more and there are more angles to adjust than CF where it's more about athleticism, I guess. Anyway, I don't think the Twins are going to give Martin a static position so I think he'll continue to provide thin value overall. I don't think there's any doubt the Twins could have been more successful in acquiring players of far more real world value production, but I think they did okay. It's not like they got nothing at all, and on paper they fleeced Toronto at the time.

I've done this a few times, but Berrios stat line across the season in 2022 is not valuable. First, Toronto won 60% of the games Berrios started. Second, you can see (green) starts where Berrios went 5.0+ IP with an ERA of 3.99 or less or (yellow 6.0-6.2 IP allowing 3 ER for a QS). Then there are the orange games where the game wasn't really out of hand. I haven't done a breakdown recently but as I recall an old post I did Berrios had a few blowup games where he was absolutely shelled, but overall, he was far better in terms of wins/losses than what the ERA would imply while pitching 172.0 innings in a full season. Berrios was not treated like an ace. The Twins were throwing $80MM figures at him which is why he wasn't interested. The Blue Jays signed Berrios to a #3-4 money contract. Lets revisit what pitchers are making, shall we? Elite Ace = $35MM+ #1 = $30MM+ #2 = $25MM+ #3 = $20MM+ #4 = $15MM+ <-- Berrios at $18.7MM #5 = $10MM+

WHIP of 1.35 is fine. xERA 3.80, FIP 3.75, xFIP 4.18. Looking at his last 3 rough starts, 9.42 ERA, 5.06 xERA, 2.97 FIP, 4.67 xFIP. Nothing really stands out as bad over a 3 game stretch save for the ERA. Exit velos, hard hit, barrels, etc all look fine. The BABIP of .420 is wayyyyy too high. It seems like a lot of bad luck. Twins fielders don't help. His stuff looks good, but he's struggling with locating the his breaking stuff. Not unexpected, especially given Prielipp is just learning the curveball. He was not ready when the Twins called him up, but he was needed. More encouraging, there are flashes. His fastballs are mediocre, but there are flashes of him being able to locate them expertly. His slider is a borderline 60 grade pitch at the MLB level, and the curve could be a 70+ grade offering. Prielipp has some weapons.

Even Joe Mauer struggled to learn 1B. One of the most gifted athletes in the history of modern sports. It took Mauer 3 years at the position, a position he started playing after he was already well established as a likely Hall of Famer and after he'd won a few gold gloves at catcher before he was good at playing first base. I find your position to be filled with so much hubris it's difficult to accept you're not trolling.

I have it on good authority guys like Tristan Gray and Ryan Kreidler are practically Ozzie Smith in the infield and Willie Mays in CF. We have 1337 defense.