bean5302

I can understand the desire to be positive and optimistic, but I am just totally unimpressed with this off-season. The Twins needed an ace, not 12 number 3s. It feels like the ghost of Terry Ryan. Darvish went CHEAP and Darvish is what the Twins needed. Every season, the Twins spend about $35-40M on additional salary for rotation arms. This has been the case since, I think, 2013. Phil Hughes, Mike Pelfrey, Kevin Correia, Ricky Nolasco/Hector Santiago, Ervin Santana and now Lance Lynn. Odorizzi was a big jump in payroll as well. It doesn't matter to me if the Twins have new dumpster fires eating the $35M in salary up every two years. It matters to me the Twins could have spent the money more efficiently. In any case, this year's probable rotation had a simple mean 4.87 FIP (4.68 when Hughes is replaced by Santana) which would keep them at an identical rank of 23rd of 30 teams (or 22nd of 30 teams) based on last year. Berrios = 3.84 Lynn = 4.82 Odorizzi = 5.43 Gibson = 4.85 Hughes = 5.43 Santana = 4.46 FIP There's always the chance multiple arms take a step forward and Santana comes back without regression to his mediocre to poor FIPs, but I've long since learned if, if, if, and if happens isn't a great scenario for trying to predict your teams playoff or World Series potential.

MLB has shown an open willingness to punish players without the type of evidence necessary to prove accusations in a legal setting before, either probable cause or beyond a reasonable doubt. MLB conducted over 20 interviews and given the current political climate, you can bet they didn’t take their decision lightly. There’s absolutely no reason to doubt the quality or integrity of the MLB investigation. MLB didn’t say “Sano’s accuser was full of ****” or something of that nature. The investigation was almost certainly very thorough, but it was obviously unable to uncover any solid evidence Sano acted inappropriately. This was never going to be about a “sexual assault” as police would have been handling that investigation. It’s not MLBs duty to investigate crimes. It’s MLBs duty to investigate personal conduct and determine whether or not a player has violated personal conduct rules, which isn’t limited in scope to crimes. There just wasn’t significant evidence OR perhaps there wasn’t significant interest from the accuser to pursue punishment. We don’t know, and we never will. It would be nice if people had a shred of respect for the hard work of MLB investigators and the process, though.

Escobar's career UZR/150 at SS is +0.3 and was +3.5 last year. Aside from a poor 2016, Escobar has never been a below average shortstop in 5 other seasons. His RF/9 has also traditionally graded out as average to better than league average at SS.

Rosario put on weight and lost speed. 2016 = 28.4, 2017 = 27.7. That's a pretty big drop off in sprint speed. Kepler 2016 = 28.6 ft/sec 2017 = 28.2 ft/sec

Kepler had only a 40 point OPS spread between RH and LH pitchers for his last two full seasons in the minors, but lefties have definitely owned him at the MLB level. His BABIP would get a lot of help if he stopped popping the ball up as much, and with Kepler's eye at the plate, it's something I think he could work on with learning which pitches lead him to pop the ball up. Kepler still reminds me of a somewhat less talented version of Joe Mauer at the plate, but Kepler may wind up delivering more pop, which will be necessary to remain a starter at a non-premium defensive position.

This is exactly what I'm talking about... a19 - 8 PA, .600 BABIP a24 - 177 PA, .391 BABIP a25 - 22 PA, .357 BABIP a25 - 195 PA, .389 BABIP (here's where he stops being a legit prospect and nearly loses rookie status) a26 - 37 PA, .267 BABIP a27 - 44 PA, .308 BABIP Career MLB 517 PA, .276 BABIP, driven down by his very high pop-up rate. His AAA BABIP is inflated. His last two seasons at AAA, in admitted very small sample sizes, have been similar to his MLB BABIP and Adrianza has a batting average more similar to his MLB career line as a result. It seems unreasonable to look at his AAA stats without a large dose of skepticism, especially given his inability to impress at other MiLB levels and his terrible hitting at the MLB level. In regard to the criticism of Escobar's abilities at SS, he's got a career 0.3 UZR/150 line in 2,363 innings, largely hurt only by a rough 2016. Escobar was billed as a slick fielding SS with the potential his bat could play with a little time. His bat now plays, and while he doesn't have the full speed and range he did a couple years ago, but he's got what it takes to put together an above average fielding (not great or elite) season at SS if the Twins decide to let him. Some links with scouting information and expectations for Escobar. http://www.chicagonow.com/future-sox/eduardo-escobar/ https://www.minnpost.com/sports/2015/09/eduardo-escobar-can-be-twins-shortstop-solution-if-they-let-him https://minnesota.sbnation.com/minnesota-twins/2012/7/28/3199423/francisco-liriano-minnesota-twins-trade-chicago-white-sox-eduardo-escobar In summary, I don't believe you've done much research on the subject and maybe formed some opinions based on what you've heard people say off the cuff. I could be mistaken, but I don't find anything to suggest your opinion on either subject is particularly well anchored.

Adrianza can not and will not hit. He's a utility infielder until he loses a step. He has a career wRC+ of 76 and has never even flashed an upside bat at the MLB level. His best stint, ever, was a 20 plate appearance rookie cup of coffee in 2013 where he registered a wRC+ of 100. His AAA numbers are incredibly easy to ignore. His age and far too high BABIP inflated the numbers. The idea Adrianza can or will turn a corner is just random player affection. Adrianza does bring a potentially very good glove. How good? Tough to say as he's only had 500 career MLB innings at short stop and his fielding percentage is lower than Escobar's. In regard to Escobar, he's an above average fielding short stop, and I don't get why people continue to lose sight of this. It's practically conspiracy level at this point, haha. The Twins haven't disliked Escobar's glove at SS, they've liked his utility everywhere else as they've used him as defensive duct tape to hold the roster together as needed. If Escobar had been used as a shortstop instead of everything and the kitchen sink, I think it's likely he would be looking forward to a big pay day in 2019 already. In summary, there is no way in hell Adrianza pushes or challenges Escobar at shortstop. The two players are in entirely different leagues. Adrianza is a utility AAAA infielder who's all glove and can serve as a defensive replacement or an occasional breather. Escobar is a potential 3 WAR starting MLB shortstop. Whether Escobar ends up playing shortstop seems more likely to rely upon Sano's potential suspension.

Sano is heavier, shorter and arguably slower than Kennys Vargas. I'm not joking or exaggerating. Statcast's 2017 sprint speed has Sano at 26.9mph and Vargas at 26.6mph. Vargas has dropped weight and worked on his conditioning. Sano has gained and not been working out. Would anybody here suggest moving Kennys Vargas to 3B? I've never seen Vargas throw so I don't know as Vargas has a cannon arm or anything, but lets be realistic of Sano's potential to play a full season at 3B without dropping 50lbs regardless of whether or not a fan watching a video thinks Sano looks good or is hiding his weight well.

Robinson Cano signed with the Mariners for 10 years and $240M at age 31 going in to 2014, but Cano did have a bit more ceiling and a better track record. Dozier isn't going to get close to that, but it's hard to argue Dozier isn't a premier player. 2B hasn't been a high demand spot, but Dozier is the second best 2B in MLB over the past 3 years, and he gives a 2.5 WAR upgrade over other "good" 2B options. That's a hell of a lot. I'd be surprised if Dozier didn't command a 3-5 year contract at $75-100M.

There is no collusion. You have a bunch of agents thirsty for their next paycheck, but not a great deal of talent to sell. Agents have become accustomed to mega deals for the top free agents, but this year's talent pool was dry. Agents were still selling mediocre JAG players as if they were cornerstones for playoff teams for the next 5 years. Case in point. Mike Moustakas. A mediocre player. Solid defender, but with only one really great year in 2015. He's a 2 WAR player. Estimates ranged up to $100M for him, and Boras wanted 6-7 years and up to $125M if I remember. The guys this year... they're just not very good and they're asking for elite money because even though they're not that great, they're the best available.

Sano isn't the 3rd baseman of the future unless something dramatic happens. Escobar isn't the 3rd baseman of the future. Love him, but not at 3rd with his bat. Gordon at SS is superior to Polanco at SS. Polanco has some potential to replace a lot of Dozier's bat and add superior defense at 2B There isn't anybody in MiLB who is an obvious solution for 3rd base n the next year or two. Dozier's going to decline. He keeps defying all logic, but for the next few years, I could see him compensating for a bit of a weaker arm with superior range at 3rd base and his bat would play there. Mauer probably isn't the solution at 3rd. His cannon arm is wasted at 1B, but his speed is on the decline and asking him to just learn a completely new, and this time more difficult, position seems like a tall order. Maybe the Twins are just in the position where there are too many pieces moving to make a big commitment to Dozier.

Other costs include operating facilities, front office employees, scouting, minor league teams, marketing, draft bonuses, and a huge host of other operational expenses. Pohlad indicated he said from a cash flow perspective, the Twins would be lucky to break even in 2017. Forbes reported they think Operating Income (essentially positive cash flow) was $30M last year. That said, profitability from the franchises has a lot more to do with franchise value as businesses NEVER report profits and losses based solely on cash flow. P&L is based on growth of value combined with cash flow. For the Twins, Forbes estimated a $115M increase in value and a $30M operating income for a total profit of $145M for 2017. In regard to the Twins' potential revenue, a better product on the field makes an immense impact on revnue. The Royals had a revenue of $161M in 2012. Then, as the team began to perform, revenue grew, and after their World Series appearance in 2014 it skyrocketed from $178M to $231M in 2015, then to $273M in 2016. Yes, the ROYALS had significantly higher revenues than the Twins. What did the Royals do with that revenue? They reinvested it to grow the fan base and revenue pool. The Twins have not been willing to do that, instead being more focused on ensuring cash flow stability and positive operating income.

I'm awfully confused as to why Joe's concussion from 5 seasons ago has any relevance today or why anybody is still really talking about it. You know, aside from the disappointment at the potential loss of an obvious first ballot HoF career.

My point is about how expensive it would be to lock Buxton up long term including securing multiple free agency years right now. I don't think the Twins risk much by letting Buxton play another full season as a "prove it" campaign. because I don't think Buxton's agent would want Byron to accept a low ball offer like Span took.

The Twins have run under 48% opening day payroll for the past decade except one season. Revenue vs. Opening Day Payroll. 2009 - $162M vs. $66M = 41% 2010 - $213M vs. $97M = 46% 2011 - $213M vs. $113M = 53% 2012 - $214M vs. $94M = 44% 2013 - $221M vs. $76M = 34% 2014 - $223M vs. $86M = 39% 2015 - $240M vs. $109M = 45% 2016 - $249M vs. $108M = 43% 2017 - $249M vs. $108M = 43% 2018 - $249M? vs. $118M = 47% Revenue from: https://www.statista.com/statistics/196669/revenue-of-the-minnesota-twins-since-2006/ and https://www.forbes.com/teams/minnesota-twins/ Payroll from: http://www.stevetheump.com/Payrolls.htm#2016_payroll At this point, with this owner, I think it's unreasonable to expect the Twins to approached the expected target for MLB team expenditures.

Aside from Buxton's arbitration eligible years, I don't see any reasonable arguments behind the Twins trying to buy out free agent years from Buxton. Buxton will hit free agency at age 28 as things stand. He'll be starting his absolute prime and earlier than 30. If Buxton manages to take the step forward his ceiling suggests he could, he's going to be one of the, if not the, highest paid player in baseball. Think 8-10 years and $360-400 million for his contract. Buying out a couple years of his free agency until age 30 would potentially depress his hypothetical contract a lot, and Buxton and his agent know that so it's going to cost the Twins a LOT. So if the Twins want to pay $20-25M per year for a couple years, they could probably get it done. So for next year assume 3 years arbitration at an average of $15M per year, plus 2 years at $25M and you could probably sign Buxton for 5 more years at a cost of $95M-ish. For a player that has 1/2 a season of eye opening performance, I think that's a crazy risk.

That's now how arbitration works. Arbitration does consider a player's last season, but it also looks at his track record. The first year of arbitration is when the baseline pay gets set. Because Buxton has almost no track record of high level performance, it would kill his arbitration value this year (he's not eligible until next year). If Buxton rakes this year, then he's got some track record to fall back on, then things could get interesting. As a side note, you're seriously undervaluing Betts.

I'm not sure how Betts and Buxton are remotely comparable. fWAR - Betts vs. Buxton 2014 - 1.8 vs. N/A 2015 - 4.9 vs. (0.6) 2016 - 7.9 vs. 1.7 2017 - 5.3 vs. 3.5 rWAR - Betts vs. Buxton 2014 - 2.1 vs. N/A 2015 - 6.0 vs. 0.2 2016 - 9.5 vs. 1.9 2017 - 6.4 vs. 5.1 Betts has been far and away the superior player. Betts has put up 3 potentially MVP caliber seasons in a row and was always a stud. Buxton has 1 All-Star-ish season and was a middling to poor player for his first 2 years even with elite defense at a premium position. Buxton has an exceptional ceiling, no doubt, but so does Royce Lewis... In any case, Buxton hasn't proven himself except for a single 200 plate appearance stint last year. From August 1st on, while on fire, Buxton still didn't walk (5.3%) and still struck out a lot (27.6%). I'd rather the Twins get another "Prove It" season from Buxton this year before locking him up to what will be a big contract because Buxton's agent isn't going to let the Twins off with a huge discount off his potential. Buxton's arbitration value will be dramatically lower than Betts as Buxton's track record will work against him in a major way. If the Twins wanted to extend Buxton through his arbitration eligible years, 5yrs, $30M-40M is where it should land. If Buxton has a great season this year, it would be 4yrs, $50-60M. There's just not much risk of letting him play it out vs. if he tanks at the plate again.

Odorizzi's FIP and xFIP from 8/9 on? 4.78 and 5.36, respectively. He got lucky despite an eye opening 4.89 BB/9 and .202 BABIP. If Odorizzi pitches like he did from 8/9 on, it's likely he'll be a non-tender candidate after this year.

I see a lot of the same arguments which I don't feel have a great deal of merit. The concepts that body types or genetics have a significant impact on weight hasn't been founded in science based on any articles or papers I've read about. The idea somebody can be 6'4" and ripped at 290-300 lbs isn't realistic. Even a natural bodybuilder won't weigh more than 240-260 lbs at Miguel Sano's height. Hrbek was used as an example of how a poorly conditioned 1B can still be effective, but Hrbek never exceeded about 250 lbs and once Hrbek hit that weight, his performance tanked and he started getting hurt a lot. Hrbek's best years were played under 240 lbs. Ortiz was a DH and a far superior hitter than Sano. Ortiz capped out around 270 lbs before he began to lighten up and played his final years around 230lbs. Prince Fielder, who was a far superior hitter to Sano, played at a max of 275 lbs (though 4" shorter than Sano) and his weight ended his elite bat at age 28 and chased him from the game entirely at age 32. Ryan Howard maxed out at 275 lbs and wanted to play at 235 lbs so he could increase his value. The history is long and well documented on this issue. Sano will be at his best playing at UNDER 240 lbs. Playing at 235 will not hurt Sano's power. It will increase Sano's bat speed. It will increase Sano's sprint speed. It will increase Sano's range. It will improve Sano's durability. It will improve Sano's endurance. While Sano may be able to continue to crush baseballs at 290lbs, his average and on base percentage will be significantly lower and his value in the field will be wiped out as a result. Sano continuing to play at extreme weights will kill his value to the Twins as a player or a trade candidate and it WILL end his career maybe even 10 years early. I'd like Sano to play the best he can for the Twins or whatever team he winds up with long term if not the Twins. I'd like him to maximize his value for my favorite baseball team. If he wants to eat his way to 400+ lbs, that's his prerogative. I won't be upset or dislike him or do anything other than wish him well for it. If he's happy, that's great. All that aside, he won't be nearly as good as he could have been or nearly as valuable to the Twins as he could have been.

From 2013 - Sano reported to camp at 238, said his ideal weight was 229. That's a year after he reported he was 218lbs, which was his ideal weight in 2012... http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/9239068/top-twins-prospect-miguel-sano-starring-documentary My experience is it doesn't matter if I prove Sano's quotes or facts related to the position. It's always hard to pull up articles and find them from 2012 etc. Sano was 16 and 6'3" 190lbs. Then he was 195. Then he was 220, then 230, then 260, then 290... The entire time, he was showing elite power. Elite athletes who are stronger, faster, quicker and need size more than Sano tip the scales at 240-250lbs with Sano's height. NFL tight ends and linebackers, for example. Sano is absolutely carrying around no less than 60-80lbs of unnecessary fat right now. If you don't believe it because his body distributes the weight well, then, you don't have to. I can't force you to agree with me. Heck, maybe I'm wrong despite what seems like pretty logical comparisons and quotes I've been able to find from interviews with Sano.

I can't get around how people defend Sano's weight. Sano has been on the record in years past indicating his ideal weight was 218 and 230 when he was showing elite power already. It seems Sano believes his ideal weight is whatever he weighs at any given time. Physical fitness (of which weight is often closely related) directly corresponds to performance. Hitting a baseball a long way isn't all Sano has to do. Sano has to react to the pitch, make adjustments to his body positioning to square pitches up, maintain flexibility, and often run flat out to the next base. He's supposed to be a third baseman, which requires fast reflexes, the ability to cover ground in a short period of time, pivot and throw off balance. Miguel Sano is paid to be an athlete, not just some guy on a bush league softball team who can send a ball flying if he actually connects. I saw comments about Hrbek in here. Hrbek was as tall as Sano and played his best under 240lbs... with his weight ballooning to somewhere near 250 as his production tanked and his injuries mounted. Morneau in his prime was at 220-230lbs. Jim Thome was a really big guy, but he played at 250lbs at the end of his career. Miguel Sano is 290-300lbs. Sano is carrying an 80lb package of shingles of extra fat around with him every step he takes. It adversely impacts his defensive value, how likely he is to be injured and most if not every aspect of his hitting other than pure power.