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jkcarew

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Everything posted by jkcarew

  1. jkcarew
    In my mind, the only justification for NOT trading Escobar is if the Twins have already made the decision that they are willing to QO him. I think it's arguable whether the team would/should feel that Escobar is worth a QO for 2019. Dozier, Sano, Gordon...even Polanco and Adrianza...a lot of decisions and moving pieces. It makes for great speculation.
  2. jkcarew
    My take-away from this article?... Is that Elizabethton's game field behind Larnach? Yikes. It looks like my high-school field in northern Minnesota looked every April, except slightly worse.
  3. jkcarew
    If you get a good offer for someone not in your 2019 plans TODAY, you take it. Nothing this team has done in 2018...including nothing in the last two weeks...warrants any type of short term decision-making.
  4. jkcarew
    SD Buhr: But Sano has hit just 2 home runs in 64 at-bats at Ft. Myers and let’s face it, hitting for power is really the ONLY thing this guy brings to the table at this point. If he can’t do that three levels below the big leagues, that’s more than just a little discouraging. Kinda depressing topic ...but a lot to discuss and debate, sadly. With regard to Sano, I agree that he's very relevant for the topic...but to use Ft. Myers HR numbers to make the argument? My presumption would be that he's at Ft. Myers to do everything BUT work on his power stroke....including things that would initially inhibit his HR rate, like letting the ball get deeper and learning how to get certain pitches and drive the ball to center and right. Of the 101 things to worry about with Sano, his long-term ability to hit a ball over the fence comes in at 102, IMO.
  5. jkcarew
    Depth is good. And the depth is good. Maybe a little better balance of high floor to go along with the high ceiling toward the top than we've had in the past? There's a lot of randomness in development. The two guys taken ahead of Kirby Puckett in the January phase of the 1982 draft combined for career WAR of -0.3. Turns out Kirby developed more favorably. We're going to be the ones that get lucky every now and then. Keep the faith.
  6. jkcarew
    Is it just my imagination or might Jaylin Davis be creeping into the picture for 2020/2021?...(depending upon what happens with other organization outfielders that are ahead of him, of course) If you imagine that he's one year younger than Wade (actually 6 months younger), then he's played the same levels as Wade at the same age as Wade, and his numbers have been only moderately inferior to Wade's....pretty much centered on inferior BB and K rates. But meanwhile, Davis is making progress with the K%, he swings the bat right-handed, and presumably has a good arm (based on the preponderance of his starts being in RF). This isn't a Davis/Wade comparison...Wade started out miles ahead of Davis and remains way ahead of him, obviously...but it's starting to seem like Davis might have a shot, which would be quire remarkable given his story and draft status.
  7. jkcarew
    Nice to see the Gordon injury must not be serious.
  8. jkcarew
    Putzing in the yard with the radio on, when the Twins made a mini-threat in the 9th, Provus made the comment “and a lot of fans are still here!”...as if the idea of fans sticking around for the 9th inning of a tie game was extraordinary...an afternoon game at that. But, he’s right in this case. The 3rd out of the 9th inning was recorded at 4:18 minutes. Even without the bench-clearing shenanigans, this was 9 innings in over 4 hours. Embarrassing for baseball.
  9. jkcarew
    Agreed with having a position player pitch in the 9th. (Assuming you have a plan for the arm or two you saved.) I could not care less about 14-6 vs 19-6. Having said that, why should a game against an offensively challenged club like the Rays have to get to that spot in the first place? In-game bullpen moves and bullpen management have been poor during Molitor’s entire tenure. Not a strength at all. And the FO has to take at least some of the blame for the bullpen roster management (and Belisle).
  10. jkcarew
    See above. Thrylos gives a great summary of the youngest Twins starters.
  11. jkcarew
    Pitching about 5 innings every 7 days. You would think they would want to change this very soon if they think he’ll be that accelerated. It’s exciting to think that the Twins could have a 20 year old starter. Can’t remember the last time that happened.
  12. jkcarew
    I think it's extremely unlikely...but for the sake of argument... If they have plans to do that, they need to trade Gordon while they can get a return, right? To me, signing both would be a statement on what the organization thinks of Gordon. (Unless you're signing them for one, maybe two years...which I guess is always possible, but again unlikely.)
  13. jkcarew
    Really aggressive on Graterol, but I don't think there's much arguing the upside. His video does look nice...looks strong and athletic, and obviously the velocity. The risk and distance to the major leagues has him lower, IMO. I'm high on him, but not quite that excited yet. One thing that would help (in terms of how I look at him at this point in time) is if we were seeing him handle a realistic workload. And two years removed from the surgery, we're not seeing that yet. I'm not suggesting this is, in and of itself, an indication of an issue...I'm saying it's tough to get a good sense of his trajectory when he's sitting at one season of 40 innings and another (this season) where he's sitting at 50 innings in the middle of July. I imagine by next year (hopefully) we'll start seeing him handling a regular workload and, at the same time, facing tougher competition.
  14. jkcarew
    Now Cody....you had all 5 on this list ranked below Lewin Diaz, right? I don’t think it’s too late to go with simple denial.
  15. jkcarew
    No. You are citing data that is real. Where we are disagreeing is in what the data means and how (or if) it would materially impact Dozier's trade value in a 2-3 month rental scenario. So, the things we are disagreeing on are subjective and a matter of opinion.
  16. jkcarew
    Let me try to elaborate. I looked at you link. You can see the numbers vary wildly from year to year. I do not at all believe that Dozier has a reputation as a "choker" among decision-makers in the industry, REGARDLESS of the numbers you cite. "Close and Late" numbers are compiled against the best relievers in the game (to a significant degree) and numbers moderately below overall numbers are not uncommon at all....it's not abnormal. If you disagree, and think Dozier's value is materially tainted by performance in 'clutch' situations, that's your prerogative. I very much doubt that is the case.
  17. jkcarew
    Again, how he fared in 2018 in these scenarios will have no bearing on his trade value.
  18. jkcarew
    For those that love to talk about Dozier's RISP struggles. This is a number that varies widely from year to year for most all batters. Dozier's BA RiSP is down this year. For his career his BA RiSP is almost identical to his overall career BA (as it is for most players). His 2018 BA RiSP will have absolutely nothing to do with his perceived value among potential trade partners.
  19. jkcarew
    I love Dozier as a player, but even I don't want to watch him play for 2 more months just because his replacement will probably make the team weaker. When you pull the plug on a season, you pull the plug. So, if he's not going to be here in 2019, at the very least you can assess 'how far away' Gordon is, etc...or further assess whether you want Adrianza in 2019...or what Escobar looks like at 2nd...anything that has any relevance at all for 2019 plans. I think the return will be limited under current circumstances, but I see that as almost irrelevant. You're not going to give him a QO. Under these circumstances, I'm almost more interested in seeing where he goes, than what we get. The work and improvement he made to transform himself into what he's become warrants a real opportunity in the playoffs...and hopefully a decent payday in the off season.
  20. jkcarew
    Blankenhorn higher than I’d have him. “...keeps his strikeouts in check”. Actually, he’s creeping toward danger, at over 26% this year at the A+ level. That Doesn’t usually go down from here. He’s got to hit the ball over the fence with his profile. It’s hard to judge him too harshly playing in the offensive wasteland that is the FSL, and only 21...but, I’d be higher on him if he could project to an every-day second baseman defensively.
  21. jkcarew
    Tough decision, made tougher by the Buxton/Sano situations. Doubtful this team can challenge in the AL in the next couple of years, even with Realmuto, if Buxton and Sano aren't the good versions we've glimpsed. And, if they ARE the good versions, do you really need Realmuto? Probably not (although, you'd still need more than we're currently getting at the position). Aside from the strategic considerations, if I think Lewis is going to stick at SS and be average+ defensively...I don't know if this is the current read, or not...but if it is, I'm not trading Lewis for 2 years of anyone not named Mike Trout.
  22. jkcarew
    I concede. Two of his base runners scoring in his last inning with him in the clubhouse. It was a strong start.
  23. jkcarew
    Yes, it was decent for sure...strikeouts a bit pedestrian for a power arm...a few more pitches. But only his second game at this level...and I suppose a starter will never see the 7th inning by the time Graterol is in his prime.
  24. jkcarew
    With regard to Jeffers, I don’t know that I’d say the Twins are “believers” in him behind the plate. I’d say it’s more like the Twins felt that it would be “worth a shot” to see if he sticks...given availability at 59th pick...and that if he doesn’t, he still would have a decent chance at providing value at DH/1B. It seems that if the scouting consensus had him sticking as a probability, he would have been long gone by the 59th pick.
  25. jkcarew
    Struggling horrifically with A+ pitching in his age 21 year...almost never walks, power tool showing little sign of development, and zero defensive flexibility. Yeah, Diaz might be a little too high.
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