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jkcarew

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Everything posted by jkcarew

  1. jkcarew
  2. jkcarew
    Ditto...why hadn’t I heard more talk about #3 on the bWAR list? One or two of the 5 HR guys I had ‘forgotten’ about. But #3 on the WAR list, I didn’t even know he was from Canada. I wonder what the highest-ever draft pick for a Canadian-born player would be? Also, given that the #2 guy on the bWAR list wasn’t drafted (despite coming up in the amateur draft era)...it makes me wonder if Canadians were originally considered ‘international’ players? And if so, when did they become eligible for the amateur draft?
  3. jkcarew
    Maybe not, but he’s butchered quite a few.
  4. jkcarew
    I THINK he’s ready...but you wouldn’t necessarily know it by watching all his at-bats this spring. Now 3 hits (including the homer above) and a walk in 20 PA...and actually struggling to make consistently contact with 7 K’s now.
  5. jkcarew
    Not enough.
  6. jkcarew
    I know these are supposed to be fun and academic exercises. But Cincinnati was a playoff team last year...I don’t think the loss of one piece is going to send them headlong into an immediate rebuild. This is Cincinnati, not Miami. Meanwhile, the Reds are looking at three more years of Castillo at an insanely good value...he’s not in any way currently contributing to payroll issues for the club. Bottom line, it would require a massive overpay to get Castillo in 2021. So, that’s what I’ll be looking for tomorrow...a massive overpay. Anything less than that is quite unrealistic. To do the ‘all-in’ thing, the timing for the partner needs to work, and it doesn’t with Cincinnati and Castillo.
  7. jkcarew
    I don’t have a problem with the exclusion of Lewis on this list. There have been questions about his hit tool from day one and he hasn’t exactly quieted them. When the best argument for inclusion is the weakness of the list, it’s not much of an endorsement. I also wouldn’t argue his inclusion toward the bottom. It is what it is...but, I don’t think the Twins are unique here as the hit and other tools whither into near-irrelevance compared to Power in the modern game. Gabriel Maciel?
  8. jkcarew
    Something mechanical to unlock a tick of two of velo? Maybe. But I don’t see that (or endurance...he couldn’t get in any better shape) as the primary issue, either. Command and consistency. He’s aggressive (which I love), but his stuff is not so dominant that he can consistently get away with mistakes (unless of course he’s pitching against the 2017-2019 Royals, Tigers, or White Sox against whom he padded the stats you cite quite handsomely). Berrios already has a combination of velocity and movement that is solidly above average. And while, to his credit, he’s been consistently willing to throw the ball over the plate, his command within the strike zone seems wildly inconsistent and sometimes, flat non-existent.
  9. jkcarew
    We can assume, then that any player caught violating the protocols will be immediately released as well? Or is this only the policy for employees with modest salaries/contracts for which the club would potentially be liable? The latter, I’m guessing.
  10. jkcarew
    It’s never as simple as that with this guy. Never.
  11. jkcarew
    Of course he did.
  12. jkcarew
    Cool article. I especially liked the ‘played other sports in HS’, the ‘D2’, and the ‘effortless 97’ parts. FWIW, I’ll take the effortless 97 over the max-effort 100 every time. Good luck to all!
  13. jkcarew
    Let me be the first to ask...because it’s never too early to ask this question... Where’s Buxton? I was anticipating a very healthy dose of live reps this spring for him. Seeing as though his injury woes are behind him and all. And the career 289 OBP.
  14. jkcarew
    Odorizzi might prove worth this and more from a strictly cost/WAR, etc. But I’ll take my chances with someone who gets through his two trips through the batting order in less than 3 hours and 200 pitches...someone willing to throw strike one on the first pitch and strike two before ball two, just occasionally. He kills the entertainment value of watching the Twins play when in the field...to as great a degree as anyone I can remember pitching for the club. Made Kyle Gibson look like Roger Clemens in terms of attacking the strike zone. And then there’s his pace. Truly painful, IMO. But good luck to him, he can be effective in this unique ‘short-starts-that-last-forever’ manner that he’s perfected. But, especially good luck to the Astros fans...and fielders...that will be watching it.
  15. jkcarew
    Broxton would have to be added to 40-man. I would think before that happened, you’d see a move to waive or trade one of the 7 outfielders already on the roster...(4 of which ‘can’ play center). Spring training is going to be even more of a small-sample thing this year, making 40-man roster decisions based on results pretty risky.
  16. jkcarew
    I would hope the Twins make an offer commensurate with a talented and valuable defensive player who is often injured and who hasn’t yet proven to be valuable offensively. Last year was a short sample with wildly unsustainable small-sample ISO and HR/FB numbers...the career offensive numbers speak for themselves...and was already so broken at the end of last season that he was benched in the playoffs. So, that type of offer. If some club is still in love with the concept that is Byron Buxton, you trade him to that club. If not, I have no problem with a middling offer and hoping for the best.
  17. jkcarew
    Ah, there it is. The annual ‘this will be the year Kepler’s BABIP normalizes’ article. To be fair, this is the first in this early spring tradition that does more than hint that the issue is not really bad luck and shifts, but instead, Kepler’s approach and swing. Which it 100% is. His offensive value has been anchored to how often the fly balls to right field leave the park. Period. And if the 2021 ball is as ‘different’ from the 2019 ball as feared (by batters)...I’m not holding my breath on a great year from Kepler. Can he change his approach at age 28? Maybe. He may need to.
  18. jkcarew
    Good point. National League teams now carry 24, 25, 26 pitcher on the 40-man. (My lord, how did we get here?) American League not much better. And you can bet every team will make a point of churning the bottom halves year-to-year to make sure they have plenty with options remaining. Options are currently more valued on the bottom of the 40-man than is mlb experience, if not ability. But who cares if they have one mlb quality pitch, because they’ll never be asked to pitch more than one inning, if that, in a competitive game given that this game can be played to maintain 8, 9, (10 coming soon) relievers on the active roster. The current optioning rules are absolutely being gamed and are definitely part of the problem.
  19. jkcarew
    You’re covered 3 deep at every position with players already on the 40-man. The only position where you’d be inclined to offer up a roster spot to upgrade your 3rd option would be CF and C. Catcher because it’s catcher, and CF, because it’s Buxton. It’s a testament to how much of an afterthought Gordon has become that we think we need another guy. If one of Simmons or Polanco is down for an extended period, I would guess Gordon becomes the emergency option at short. He’s on the roster, he’s a shortstop, and he’s 25 years old. (Or maybe he’s waived this spring and one of the existing minor league options take on that role?) I would think that when both Simmons and Polanco are available (not necessarily both playing, but both available to play)...then the ‘extra’ utility option(s) can be guys with more offensive upside (including Blankenhorn) since you shouldn’t have to worry about playing any of them at SS.
  20. jkcarew
    If you are one that is concerned with the ugly strikeout numbers (more K’s than hits for the first time in history...3 years running now), the ever-growing length of games, and the alarming deceleration in frequency of balls in play and baserunners...then SMALLER rosters are the answer, not larger. All larger rosters will do is encourage more specialization with regard to how pitchers are used to neutralize hitting, further accelerating the trend toward power as the one and only viable offensive strategy. Would the quality of play in the NBA be (even) better if each team had an active roster of 18 and could replace offensive specialists with defensive specialists at every change of possession? Would it be a better game or better entertainment? Hyperbole a bit, but seems kinda something similar to direction MLB is wandering.
  21. jkcarew
    But the bad fielding player was not actually a bad fielder in the first place if his metics are taking a hit primarily for plays not made that would have been made. That’s the point. Just because the defensive component of WAR says you’re something doesn’t actually make you that something especially in the case of outfielders. It’s a real consequence of the (serious) limitations of calculating defensive component of WAR, also one of the reasons defensive WAR can fluctuate so much year-to-year...and again, it’s worse for outfielders. These same range factors also tend to boost defensive WAR for almost any player who gets to play the center field role, including players that have ‘average-ish’ speed. And that’s helped Kepler’s defensive metrics. You’ll notice that Kepler’s defensive WAR has trended up in years where he has played relatively more games in center.
  22. jkcarew
    It’s a good question as we saw time and again how Rocco wanted the left-handed bat in the 4 hole...almost no matter how Rosario was swinging it. Still, Buxton is not an option, even if he ran like Usain Bolt. It’s taken 1500 PA to establish his .289 career OBP (it actually went further in the wrong direction in 2021). How many additional PA with different outcomes would it take for Baldelli to reconsider? A lot...like hundreds, I’m guessing. Depending upon who’s playing (which catcher and whether Arraez is in the lineup and for whom)... Right handed starter: Arraez or Kepler with Arraez if they’re both in the lineup. (Polanco’s an option, as well) Lefty: Garver or Josh Donaldson (or Arraez) How Kirilloff profiles at the major league level (and how soon) will go a long way in deciding what Rocco can do with Kepler.
  23. jkcarew
    I’d be surprised if Gordon ever spends more than one ‘experimental’ season on a MLB active roster...and with a rebuilding team. Any scenario that has the Twins having to rely on him for a Major League role in 2021 is, basically, disaster. Anything more from Gordon would start with better health, and include, shall we say, better...”hunger” (which is probably the biggest difference between Dozier and Gordon). I like the Blankenhorn comp...seems about a perfect parallel. Also Rooker in a scenario where he is able to cut down on the swing-and-miss and suddenly leave us with big doses of that super hard contact.
  24. jkcarew
    I mean, it’s not likely simply because even among those that start strong and show the potential (as Arraez has), only about one in a hundred are going to end up developing near the level Carew/Gwynn achieved. Could happen of course. I think Arraez is more limited with his lack of high end speed. Also, with his swing, it’s hard to see him ever getting to 10-15 HR in a season. Still, I have no problem with where Arraez is on this list. I think his AVE/OBP could be sustainably high enough to be valuable...and it’s arguable that it’s more valuable to this club than is Jeffers’ SLG, just based on scarcity.
  25. jkcarew
    Yikes! Pretty thin in terms of accomplishment these days. Under 25 lists are always swayed to potential relative to accomplishment (in MLB terms), but this is fairly extreme. Kinda highlights that the Twins are not really a young team any more. Need the next wave to start impacting soon.
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