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Brock Beauchamp

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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp

  1. Brock Beauchamp
    Is something wrong with Presley? Is that why the Twins released him? His OPS+ is down to 51 with Houston. Yikes. That makes Aaron Hicks look good.
  2. Brock Beauchamp
    Yep. I agree with this. They had the opportunity to right what *should* have been a pretty small mistake with Bartlett but instead doubled down on weakening CF depth.
  3. Brock Beauchamp
    A lot of road games against a lot of tough teams in this stretch. I think they'll scrape by, losing a few more than they win and ending the stretch around .500, give or take a game. We all thought they'd buckle against Detroit and Boston but they won both those series.
  4. Brock Beauchamp
    Brian, I look at that play and say "Boy, that Ben Revere sure is fast... But what the &^%$ was he doing in left field against a guy whose spray chart looks like": It's possible that's coaching, but...
  5. Brock Beauchamp
    Right. Was lazily including "anyone drafted after their first pick" with "supplemental round". It's pretty eye-opening to sort drafts by WAR on BB-Ref. Guys like Plouffe, Parmelee, and Revere suddenly look like okay draft picks when you realize that only ~25-30 guys from each draft make the big leagues and post a positive WAR. All three of those guys rank between 10-20th in career WAR from their respective drafts. In the case of Plouffe, he might someday crack the top ten if he continues to post league-average numbers as a third baseman.
  6. Brock Beauchamp
    Nope. The opposite, actually. This system is stacked top-to-bottom and the MLB club is playing .500 ball so far. Since Adam Johnson, the Twins have a decent track record with their first pick of the draft: 2001 - Joe Mauer - 1st - Fantastic pick 2002 - Denard Span - 20th - Excellent pick 2003 - Matthew Moses - 21st - UGH 2004 - Trevor Plouffe - 20th - Decent pick 2005 - Matt Garza - 25th - Excellent pick 2006 - Chris Parmelee - 20th - Meh pick, jury still out 2007 - Ben Revere - 28th - Meh, maybe decent, pick 2008 - Aaron Hicks - 14th - Jury still out 2009 - Kyle Gibson - 22nd - Decent pick, jury still out 2010 - Alex Wimmers - 21st - Ugh, jury still out 2011 - Levi Michael - 30th - Ugh, jury still out 2012 - Byron Buxton - 2nd - Whoooooo! 2013 - Kohl Stewart - 4th - Looking good thus far Sure, some of the Twins' supplemental round picks have been bad but you can say that about every team. The supplemental rounds are a crapshoot and while the Twins have badly missed on the Hunts and Bashores of the world, they've also scored big with the Perkins and Berrios of the world.
  7. Brock Beauchamp
    Either way, there's a strong correlation between strikeouts and above average pitching. Does that mean every pitcher needs to strike out an inordinate number of batters to succeed? No, of course not... but if they do, they have a better chance at prolonged success in Major League Baseball.
  8. Brock Beauchamp
    It was a different game. Hitters choked up on the bat with two strikes. They didn't swing for the fences on an 2-2 count. Competition was less fierce. Starters went deeper into games. Even despite those things happening in the past, how many HoF pitchers with above average strikeout rates did you have to pass over to form that list?
  9. Brock Beauchamp
    Yep. It's opportunity cost. By inserting a pitcher "good enough to get by, pitching a quality start every second or third turn", you might be passing up a prospect who would be marginally, if not significantly, better than that in both the short- and long-term. And it's not as if Kevin Correia is doing anything right now that Mike Pelfrey, Kris Johnson, or Logan Darnell couldn't do. He has been terrible this season.
  10. Brock Beauchamp
    Yep. It's pure speculation on my part but I think it's a possibility.
  11. Brock Beauchamp
    Can't argue with any of this though I will provide one small counterpoint: It's very possible that Revere played a much more valuable centerfield in the cavernous Target Field than he does in thimble-sized Citizen's Bank Park.
  12. Brock Beauchamp
    I believe it has to do with the nature of defense. If you're capable of playing in an MLB outfield, all players are going to get to the same balls 95% of the time. It's the outlier hits/outs that define a player's defensive ability and those are relatively rare. It takes some time for a player to accumulate enough of them for the metric to define his ability as a defender. In 1+ seasons with the Phillies, Revere has just over 300 chances on defense. Let's say 90% of those balls were gimmes that pretty much any defender would catch. That leaves only 31 balls for a metric to decide if he's a quality defender or not... Obviously, 31 chances does not provide enough data points to be anything close to accurate.
  13. Brock Beauchamp
    In all fairness, we've all seen Revere play the outfield many, many times. Yes, it's possible that he has lost a step and his defense has suffered with the Phillies. It's also possible that UZR is very wrong in what is less than a season's worth of data (and UZR fluctuates wildly from year to year and should not be the sole metric used to qualify defensive acumen over a single season of play). Revere has played less than 130 games for the Phillies.
  14. Brock Beauchamp
    It's possible. I'd definitely explore trading him before DFA, that's for sure.
  15. Brock Beauchamp
    Agreed. I don't think Correia can be traded. I'm fine with a DFA if he continues to struggle. As for Pelfrey, I'm also fine with him getting the nod IF he's throwing in the low 90s again. If he's not, DL him again or DFA him if he won't "come down" with an injury. The guy is flat-out useless unless he's throwing hard. Fuld needs to stay with the team as an insurance policy. I'd consider demoting Hicks unless he continues to post a .200+ batting average. The moment he slips, he gets sent to Rochester.
  16. Brock Beauchamp
    Though the outcome would be most entertaining.
  17. Brock Beauchamp
    I've always been skeptical of Berrios because of his size and projectability but, damn... the kid just pitches no matter where you put him in the organization.
  18. Brock Beauchamp
    Like we'd even consider you at all. The last thing I want to see is this site's ads back-filled with "DEROSA FOR PREZ, BRO" banner ads.
  19. Brock Beauchamp
    We're always exploring more options but frankly, it's down to opportunity cost at this point. None of us have the time to work on everything we'd like to change so we have to choose our battles.
  20. Brock Beauchamp
    Absolutely. I don't expect the Twins to stay in "contention" but I think they have a decent shot at hanging around .500 through July, which means they probably won't be selling at the deadline.
  21. Brock Beauchamp
    Thanks. The code doesn't render from source the way I expected. Can you describe which ad slot was showing the offending ad? For example, second rectangle ad in the sidebar about half way down the page.
  22. Brock Beauchamp
    Every network we've used has been guilty of delivering ****ty autoplay ads at one point or another... including the network you used to work for.
  23. Brock Beauchamp
    If Pelfrey is throwing 92-93mph, I will welcome him back to the roster. Maybe not the rotation, but the roster. If the Twins call him up and he's still throwing 89-90mph, I'll flip over to women's college softball every night he pitches.
  24. Brock Beauchamp
    I'll sacrifice 1-2 games for a better short- and long-term pitcher to join the rotation. I think May could come up right now and post Kevin Correia-type numbers or better, which is why I'm hoping that Correia tanks.
  25. Brock Beauchamp
    This. Because of this. I like Suzuki and wouldn't mind retaining him for another year (but only one year) if the Twins stay in contention and he isn't obvious trade bait at the deadline. Lots of time to make a decision, no need to do it now.
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