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Brock Beauchamp

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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp

  1. Brock Beauchamp
    Agree that they've been very lucky. Disagree that the Twins don't realize this. We have absolutely no idea what they say behind closed doors or what they believe about this team. It's not like they're going to publicly admit "Yeah, we're 22-17 but damn, we're actually pretty terrible. I don't understand why our players even bother to try at this point."
  2. Brock Beauchamp
    Yeah, that Seth is a real fair weather Twins fan.
  3. Brock Beauchamp
    I'm still on the fence but I think 85 wins and 90 losses are both unlikely... But if you made me choose the more likely of the two, I'd choose 90 losses.
  4. Brock Beauchamp
    The Twins currently sit at 21-17. Extrapolate that record out to 162 games - stop laughing - and you get an 89 win season. I know most of us settled into the 70-78 win range before the season. I expected 75 wins and considered knocking that number down to 73 after the Santana suspension. I'm still holding fast to 75 wins but if the Twins exit May with a winning record, I'm going to start moving that number closer to 80. This team has been quite lucky but unlike earlier teams that got off to a hot start, their success isn't entirely built on smoke and mirrors (eg. the 2014 Minnesota Twins). There's talent on this team and a lot of it is still underperforming, particularly the position players. Add in the potential improvement of Hicks, a new bullpen, and possibly Buxton and things could look really interesting by the end of the season. Are you ready to change your prediction yet or is it still too soon?
  5. Brock Beauchamp
    Yeah, the numbers weren't meant to be taken as concrete fact... Just more of a thought experiment on how a misplaced player with good offensive numbers might end up near replacement level when played out of position.
  6. Brock Beauchamp
    I don't know. I probably would have structured the team differently this past offseason.
  7. Brock Beauchamp
    Ditto. A guy with that kind of bat control and baseball smarts should do well into his 30s. It doesn't make sense.
  8. Brock Beauchamp
    I've been watching a few Padres and Astros games lately, enjoying the improved play of those teams. Wil Myers has been raking this season, returning to his rookie form plus some. Here is his slash line: .291 .340 .493 .833 That's good for an OPS+ of 132, more commonly referred to as "higher than anyone on the 2015 Minnesota Twins". That's really good, particularly for someone playing half their games in PETCO. But the Padres have been playing Myers out of position, putting him in centerfield. Wil Myers is not a centerfielder. He's so bad on defense that Fangraphs has his DRS at -9 for the season. UZR has him at -9.6. The eye test isn't any more favorable to Mr Myers. He's not a statue out there but he lacks the athleticism to play center. Put him in a corner spot and he's probably somewhere close to neutral defensively. By playing Myers out of position, the Padres have taken a 132 OPS+ (Joe Mauer's career OPS+) and turned it into a a 0.2 fWAR once you factor in defense. I know that's now really how WAR works but it's an interesting example of just how much talent you can squander by playing someone out of position. Put Myers in a corner OF spot, pick up a capable no-hit CF option who chases down balls at an acceptable rate, and you're almost surely at a net gain in production. In short, it's really hard to neutralize a 132 OPS+ but it appears the Padres are doing just that on a nightly basis.
  9. Brock Beauchamp
    Sure, why not... With the exception of Escobar. I don't *like* him playing outfield but I've always felt Escobar has the makings of a potential super-utility guy. Giving him some time in the outfield could make him a very valuable player, provided he becomes even somewhat adept at playing a corner OF position. But even then, it'd probably be for the best if he was never put in that position in the first place.
  10. Brock Beauchamp
    Above average defense, some of the best baserunning in the game, and the ability to draw a walk - all strengths of Brian Dozier - are not a product of coaching. Coaching can help those things somewhat, sure. How much? Probably not a lot. If it was that easy, every MLB player would play great defense, get on base over 35% of the time, and always know when to take the extra base.
  11. Brock Beauchamp
    No more outfielders.
  12. Brock Beauchamp
    It's amazing how professionals can watch a game for so many years but never actually see the game. And then even more inexplicably, they're given jobs to talk about said game.
  13. Brock Beauchamp
    Don't forget Rex Hudler.
  14. Brock Beauchamp
    Should have traded high. Somebody had to say it.
  15. Brock Beauchamp
    I notice you didn't bring up OBP, defense, or baserunning. I like Arcia but he has some massive flaws in his game that limit his overall growth as a baseball player.
  16. Brock Beauchamp
    Agreed. He looked like a different pitcher last night. Changing speeds, moving the ball around, and generally effective. If he can continue doing that, his ERA will drop to an acceptable level.
  17. Brock Beauchamp
    Agreed. The Twins rotation won't show legitimate upside until Berrios arrives and (hopefully) Meyer sorts out his command issues in Rochester.
  18. Brock Beauchamp
    Agreed. I'm baffled by both Arcia and Young. So much physical ability, so little of it that translates to the green part of the baseball field.
  19. Brock Beauchamp
    The Twins can move into a tie for second place in the Central and the first WC seed with a win today. Baseball is a funny game.
  20. Brock Beauchamp
    Agreed. I'll take the above average ERA over wins in May every single time.
  21. Brock Beauchamp
    It's kinda funny, really. The only thing that I find truly telling about Hunter is how many people called him the "worst outfielder in baseball" while my argument was "if the Twins are using publicly-available metrics to rate defense, they're in worse shape than I originally thought". Turns out that the Twins were probably right and that Hunter's -24.7 defensive runs last season weren't indicative of his ability. Yeah, he's slow and old but I'd still take him in the field over Arcia after watching him for ~30 games. What he's missing physically is somewhat compensated for by instinct and veteran savvy. He looks below average, maybe even bad, but not horrible/terrible/OMG.
  22. Brock Beauchamp
    You and the rest of the United States who prefer their metro areas to be populated and bear-free and their rivers not aflame.
  23. Brock Beauchamp
    If the Twins sign Hunter in 2016, I'm packing it in and starting a Brewers site. Only somewhat joking.
  24. Brock Beauchamp
    I'm not arguing that it was the right decision and I'm not sure I would have made the same choice. But it was a justifiable decision. In a righty-dominant lineup, going with Pressly is not a horrible call. Right handers have just a .277 OBP against him and it's not like he's a pitching machine against lefties, either.
  25. Brock Beauchamp
    Badly but the thinking behind it isn't nearly as bad as you'd like to paint it. Ryan Pressly has a career OPS against of .638 versus righties. He was due to face R/L/R/R that inning, starting with the nine spot in the order. If he gets through the inning, you have Perkins against the middle of the Detroit lineup (3-5 spots), starting with Miguel Cabrera. Sometimes baseball just doesn't work out even when you go with the numbers.
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