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Brock Beauchamp

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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp

  1. Brock Beauchamp
    Oy, no way. That instantly turns the Sox into a possible powerhouse for the next 6-8 years. You don't make that trade within the division, particularly when it turns your team from a potential powerhouse for 6-8 years to a powerhouse for 2-3 years if everything goes right. The Twins should be going into the prime years of Buxton/Sano/Berrios/Meyer/May/Rosario/etc. during that time, not handing away some of the best prospects to a division rival and shortening their window considerably. If the Twins are an 85 win team in 2016 and they need a Sale-like piece to get over the top in 2017, then you make that kind of deal. Get your own house in order and then make a push toward greatness.
  2. Brock Beauchamp
    I wasn't up in arms about it. I pointed out why I didn't use dates to track wins.
  3. Brock Beauchamp
    I'm not saying that at all and it's absurd to imply such a thing. I've said it multiple times in this thread already: Mike Pelfrey should not be traded because the Twins will almost surely replace him with an inferior pitcher. Is Pelfrey getting by on some luck? Absolutely. That tempers my expectations for him through the rest of the season but guys get lucky and stay lucky for a season all the time. It's called a "career year". That's why you ride the lucky horse until he's no longer lucky (provided the team is in contention and wins actually matter). That could come tomorrow. It could come in April of 2016. It's also why I find the idea of extending Mike laughable. Luck can't be maintained but it can often stick around a hell of a lot longer than you think it will.
  4. Brock Beauchamp
    It should be noted that in the past four seasons, no Twins team reached the 38 win mark before the season's halfway point. Barring a collapse, the 2015 Twins should do it in the 68-70 game range.
  5. Brock Beauchamp
    The season also started seven days earlier in 2014, which is why I'm not using dates.
  6. Brock Beauchamp
    On a contending team, does that matter? I don't believe it does. The only thing that matters to me right now is that Mike Pelfrey is probably better than anyone the Twins will use to replace him. That could be the difference between a Wild Card appearance or also-ran status. That's what should matter to the Twins right now, not potential trade value when the team is coming off four consecutive 90-loss seasons.
  7. Brock Beauchamp
    From 4/6-6/20, Mike Pelfrey has helped his team win just a tick more than Clayton Kershaw per inning. From 6/21-10/4, that will probably not be the case.
  8. Brock Beauchamp
    Rate basis isn't the only thing that matters. more good innings > less good innings Or maybe you think the guy who has an OPS of .900 in 400 PAs is more valuable than the guy who has an OPS of .860 in 600 PAs. Value is cumulative.
  9. Brock Beauchamp
    I've been meaning to do this for awhile but never got around to it. Watching the Twins win is fun but sometimes, it's like we've forgotten just how much rotten baseball we watched to get to this point (at least it seems that way with the "trade Pelfrey" talk that persists around the board). So I'm going to track 2015 wins and compare them to previous seasons. Win 37: Game #: 2015: 67 2014: 80 2013: 84 2012: 89 2011: 83
  10. Brock Beauchamp
    Probably not because Kershaw has pitched 15 more innings. We're less than 70 games into the season, that's a pretty huge split.
  11. Brock Beauchamp
    But May hasn't been better than Pelfrey. That's kind of the point. May should be better than Pelfrey but reality often doesn't line up with what should happen. This is where people get lost in advanced metrics. FIP and xFIP are great, I love 'em. But they don't tell you who was (notice past tense usage there) the better player because at the end of the day, the guy who allows less runs and helps win more games is the better player, period. No ifs, ands, or buts about it. Maybe an inferior player is crazy-lucky. That doesn't matter. He did more - through his own action or not - to help the team win and FIP doesn't count in a tie-breaker to see who makes the playoffs and who doesn't. Wins are the only stat that do that and the player who scores and/or prevents the most is the better player every time. But FIP and xFIP are great for predicting future success, better than ERA and other traditional stats... But again, there's a big difference between "what happened" and "what should have happened".
  12. Brock Beauchamp
    I didn't realize Mike Pelfrey and Clayton Kershaw were the only two pitchers in baseball. Lots of middle ground there you didn't cover.
  13. Brock Beauchamp
    If it's truly dead arm, DLing Hughes when Santana returns isn't the worst idea in the world. The Twins are going to need an effective Phil Hughes down the stretch if they want to stay near the top of the division. Give him a chance to catch his breath and then get him back out there for the second half of the season.
  14. Brock Beauchamp
    Carry the one. Derp de derp.
  15. Brock Beauchamp
    I don't recall either but he's definitely not an unrestricted FA after the season, that much I know.
  16. Brock Beauchamp
    It's been several years since I read the book. I forgot about Aegon. That was pretty bad.
  17. Brock Beauchamp
    I caught up to episode nine just a few minutes ago. I'm curious to know what I'll think after the season finale (heard some pretty bad things) but the show is ramping up more quickly than I ever could have hoped. Tyrion + badass Dany = a return to greatness. The show is pivoting and returning back to its core story and unsurprisingly, became a *much* better show the moment it happened. Unlike the books, the show is giving us characters to cheer on and in the case of Tyrion/Dany/Jorah, is combining them into a force that leads toward not only an endgame, but an endgame you want to see with victors you genuinely like. In other words, it's finally turning back into a ****ing fantasy story that people can enjoy. We'll see if it holds up after the final episode...
  18. Brock Beauchamp
    I have to admit that my interest in The Daily Show has waned in the wake of The Colbert Report and, more recently, Last Week Tonight. But then Stewart does stuff like this and it reminds me of his greatness. I haven't seen anyone else cover this with such honesty and sadness. http://thedailyshow.cc.com/videos/kb2h42/charleston-church-shooting
  19. Brock Beauchamp
    I keep going back to this being a problem but then Mauer does things like rip a ball *just foul* down the first base line on a 95mph fastball, like he did in the HR at-bat yesterday. The dude is an enigma right now.
  20. Brock Beauchamp
    That's not a concern quite yet. Ervin Santana is eligible to return in four games.
  21. Brock Beauchamp
    Best pure hitter? In my opinion, yes. Best baseball player? No. Ted's quite apparent disdain for defense disqualifies him from the running. But hitting... Good god. Factor in the seasons Williams lost to war and he's right there with Bonds and Ruth in career numbers.
  22. Brock Beauchamp
    I agree that Ruth was probably the best but I understand arguments for Mays. The strength of competition was just so much higher in the 50s and 60s.
  23. Brock Beauchamp
    This cannot be emphasized enough, in my opinion.
  24. Brock Beauchamp
    We absolutely shouldn't forget the long term goal but thankfully, Pelfrey isn't preventing that goal from being achieved. He walks after the season. If anything, Pelfrey is helping that goal become a reality. He's pitching on a team in contention and giving the young players a chance to experience a second half of the season where games matter. They'll enter 2016 better equipped to understand what it takes to play major league baseball and win. It's not as if Berrios is banging on the door. Meyer is in the bullpen. Pelfrey isn't hurting the 2016 and beyond Twins.
  25. Brock Beauchamp
    Sure. If he acclimates to hitting quickly, then you loosen the leash a bit and explore other options. But intially, KISS should be the motto with Sano. Put him in the best position to succeed. Once he succeeds, then you start looking for other ways to improve the team and that might include Miguel playing a few innings at first base, for starters.
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