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Brock Beauchamp

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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp

  1. Brock Beauchamp
    It really does. This is his fifth year as a starter and he's had two very good seasons (120, 125 ERA+). He had one good season (107 ERA+). He had one kinda bad season (89 ERA+) and this season is pretty bad (82 ERA+). When he's on, he's quite good. When he's not, he's nothing remarkable. The good Samardzija and the bad Samardzija seem to weigh in about equally. He's a more inconsistent version of, say, Matt Garza. I'd rather have Garza in his prime because you don't know if you're getting Good Jeff or Bad Jeff in any given season.
  2. Brock Beauchamp
    2015 MLB is a very different animal than 2000 MLB. Less production is expected at all positions, particularly the up-the-middle positions.
  3. Brock Beauchamp
    Yep, not saying it's good if he has zero power but if he ends up in the .075-.100 range (not far off his brother's marks) he's an acceptable shortstop (provided his average is good as well). But he doesn't have the outright speed of Dee so an ISO over .100 would be preferred. Dee gets a ton of his ISO from triples.
  4. Brock Beauchamp
    Yep, he should be erring on the side of caution this early in his career. The more pitches he sees, the more quickly he gets a feel for the capabilities of MLB pitching. It's easy to learn to swing at pitches. It's a lot harder to learn to not swing at pitches.
  5. Brock Beauchamp
    Yep, Gibson's K% is up to 15.2. You'd like to see it creep toward 17-18% when all is said and done but that number isn't embarrassing.
  6. Brock Beauchamp
    Ditto. Get Joe out of the third spot, which allows him to focus on not making outs, easily his best trait as a hitter.
  7. Brock Beauchamp
    Yep. He's not where you'd like him to be in the contact in discipline departments but he hasn't been disastrous, either. That gives me pause but I'm not quite ready to be overly concerned about it. Only time will tell how his power manifests but if he doesn't pick it up in discipline and contact (and he has done that in recent weeks), that could be worrisome in the future. Also, I'm not sure we want Gordon to show much power. He's (reportedly) so slick defensively that maybe it's best if he stays in the 6' range and never gets over 180 lbs. Given the way baseball is turning back to smaller guys up the middle, it could mean he's the first Twins SS who will actually stick at the position through his early 30s. The bigger he gets, the more likely it is that he moves away from the position at a younger age.
  8. Brock Beauchamp
    I consider this a general positive, actually. Dee started as a 20 year old in rookie ball. Nick started as an 18 year old in rookie ball. Dee was so unimpressive overall that he didn't get drafted. I wonder how much of that had to do with his physical appearance as an 18 year old. Nick's offensive ability (or lack thereof) is worth noting but we're talking about a lanky, 19 year old shortstop. He's an inch taller but 10 lbs lighter than his older brother. It can be said with relative confidence that Nick has at least 15 lbs more in his frame. Not everyone grows at the same rate. At 19 years old, I was 6'2"ish and about 160 lbs. By the time I was 22, I was 6'4" and 200 lbs. Gordon is so young that he's not even close to developed physically. There's a chance he never gets there but there's also a decent chance that the power comes with the weight and muscle, which won't finish developing until he's well into his 20s. Some guys (Kennys Vargas, Miguel Sano) are monster human beings seemingly from puberty. Other guys take time to reach maturity. At this point, I'm more concerned with Nick's plate discipline and his contact ability. The power shouldn't be much of a concern when talking about a defensively skilled shortstop who hasn't seen his 20th birthday.
  9. Brock Beauchamp
    Barry was a mere shadow of his father, Bobby.
  10. Brock Beauchamp
    Maybe it's just me but I don't really give a rat's ass where Buxton bats in the lineup. He should be playing every day in center... Past that, I don't really care much.
  11. Brock Beauchamp
    His career xFIP is *slightly* misleading because of his 2013 season. xFIP kinda breaks when a pitcher is really bad (or sometimes really good). You often see a 6+ ERA pitcher sport an xFIP of 4.5-5.0 and I think it's because the metric doesn't factor in that bad pitchers absolutely get drilled when contact is made. But your overall point is spot-on. According to xFIP, Gibson was a bit unlucky last season and he's quite lucky this season. I can't fully explain this season's discrepancy (though I'll kinda meander my way to a point) but last season's "unlucky" status was almost surely due to Gibson's Jekyll & Hyde routine. Again, I think xFIP breaks when a pitcher is really bad. We've seen it time and time again with the likes of Blackburn, Pelfrey, Worley, etc. Their ERA is terrible while their xFIP is merely bad. Gibson ended 2014 with a 4.47 ERA, 88 ERA+. Slightly below average but not alarmingly so... but when you dig into his game log, it tells a very different story. Gibson made 31 starts in 2014. Gibson gave up 5 ER or more in ten (!) of those starts. Gibson gave up 1 ER or less in 13 (!) of those starts. In 75% of his 2014 starts, Kyle Gibson was either stellar or horrible, bad, awful. That's kinda crazy but when talking about a young pitcher, it's very promising and indicates a pitcher that will turn into a very nice piece once he establishes himself a bit (as he has this season). Will he continue to be this good? I'm not convinced of that but he should be above average.
  12. Brock Beauchamp
    Yep. I'm not trying to diminish Jack Goin's influence but his job of getting pitchers to buy into analytics has to be easier when the team's best pitcher is such a student of the subject.
  13. Brock Beauchamp
    Agreed. I wonder if this is Joe permanently altering approach by going back to his comfort zone or whether it's a longer process where he tried to pull the ball a lot, it didn't work, and now he's easing off on pull attempts but not giving up on the idea entirely. Ultimately, we don't want Mauer to turn into a pull hitter, we want him to become a spray hitter. Perhaps this is part of that process. There are so many variables with Joe Mauer right now that it's almost impossible to say. I hope he's not giving up on pulling the ball and this is a brief adjustment period to keep defenses guessing on what he's going to do in any given plate appearance. The goal isn't to change his approach in every PA, the goal is to add pull ability when it suits his purposes to improve all facets of his offensive game.
  14. Brock Beauchamp
    Great stuff. Who loves Glen Perkins? *enthusiastically raises hand*
  15. Brock Beauchamp
    Catching up on the game. I really enjoy how Buxton looks completely out of control whenever he's rounding first base. I've seen him do it three times now and he's arms and legs akimbo all three times.
  16. Brock Beauchamp
    1.243 OPS over the past week, .837 over the past fortnight.
  17. Brock Beauchamp
    To be fair, he has only played nine games. If he starts playing well now, in two months we'll look back and say Buxton was good right away.
  18. Brock Beauchamp
    Win 38: Game #: 2015: 70 2014: 82 2013: 91 2012: 90 2011: 84
  19. Brock Beauchamp
    I know it's been mentioned here and there but I hadn't looked at the stats very closely in the past month. Trevor May has turned into a really nice pitcher. 4.8 BB%, 21.0 K%, good for a 3.72 xFIP.
  20. Brock Beauchamp
    Yep. His stat line is modest but not particularly troublesome. He's 19 years old in low A ball. That's an advanced level for a guy that age. He's striking out less than once every five plate appearances. That's pretty often but not absurdly so. He's walking once every twelve plate appearances. That's not great but it's acceptable, especially considering his age. He has almost zero power but that's not something we should worry too much about when discussing a 19 year old shortstop. He has plenty of time to build more muscle mass before he gets anywhere near the major leagues. The guy can't legally take a drink through the end of the 2016 season. If he's approaching 22 and still hits for zero power and that average doesn't come up, then I'll start to worry about it.
  21. Brock Beauchamp
    I absolutely believe Milone should receive a legitimate chance to compete for a spot, particularly at the expense of Nolasco. We've seen enough Bad Ricky where it's time to make him earn a spot, not have one handed to him.
  22. Brock Beauchamp
    State legislators need to vote on it. Given the amount of backlash - even Jeb Bush has called for its removal - I think it's coming down for good.
  23. Brock Beauchamp
    I'm skeptical of Milone because he played all those games in Oakland, which may have influenced his stat line. He has an ERA of 2.98 in Oakland while his ERA for career away games (didn't feel like breaking it down further than that) is below league average at 4.33. That doesn't mean he can't be just as good or better than the guys you listed, it just means I'm skeptical.
  24. Brock Beauchamp
    Sigh. Dave. You know how to reach me if there's a problem. Anyway, I thought I had this fixed several days ago. I haven't seen those mobile overlay ads pop up in close to a week.
  25. Brock Beauchamp
    What I find most intriguing about that list is almost every player on it had elite or borderline elite plate discipline. I spot-checked a few of the names whose stat lines I didn't know offhand and only one of them had an isoD under .050. The majority of them were .060 or higher (many were .080-.100). That seems too... convenient... to dismiss out of hand. High discipline hitters are usually the most capable, well-rounded hitters. edit: Confirmed the entire list. Unless I missed something, one guy had an isoD under .050. Nearly ten of them had .080 or better, close to two-thirds had .070 or better.
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